Indie game sales
by someone · in General Discussion · 04/17/2004 (7:11 pm) · 40 replies
Anyone know how many indie games actually get sold? like is it in the hundreds or thousands? any examples?
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#2
What's awesome to me is that games like these that are distributed online can be so successful this early on in the life of modern downloadable games. There hasn't been a really strong pay-to-download market since the heyday of shareware. It's great that independent game development business models can work again, despite the high technology barrier to entry (which, in part thanks to Torque, is being alleviated). It's also impressive that web distribution technology and consumer acceptance is coming into maturity so quickly.
For now, I'm happy just knowing this much: so far apparently nobody's gotten filthy rich, but it's clearly possible for good indie games to make good money. The developers of most, if not all, of the games mentioned above have stated that they're happy with their sales.
Pretty cool. And I think it only gets better from here.
04/17/2004 (9:34 pm)
I don't believe that GG releases specific numbers, but I could be wrong. In any case, while I certainly understand the desire to know these numbers for business planning purposes, I think it suffices to say that the games are for the most part doing well enough to help support their teams.What's awesome to me is that games like these that are distributed online can be so successful this early on in the life of modern downloadable games. There hasn't been a really strong pay-to-download market since the heyday of shareware. It's great that independent game development business models can work again, despite the high technology barrier to entry (which, in part thanks to Torque, is being alleviated). It's also impressive that web distribution technology and consumer acceptance is coming into maturity so quickly.
For now, I'm happy just knowing this much: so far apparently nobody's gotten filthy rich, but it's clearly possible for good indie games to make good money. The developers of most, if not all, of the games mentioned above have stated that they're happy with their sales.
Pretty cool. And I think it only gets better from here.
#3
04/17/2004 (9:37 pm)
It's more than a hundred and less than HalfLife sells. Beyond that, we don't give out sales numbers. 
#4
Heading out over to Dexterity.com's forums, you can hear about a lot of people struggling to get more than a handful of sales per month. So on the low end, you have people making no sales, or very few - <10 per month. And that may represent the 'majority.' I don't know if anyone knows for sure.
Indie games CAN do much better than this, of course, but it sounds like there's a fairly wide range.
04/17/2004 (10:57 pm)
There was a whitepaper that recently came out from the IGDA about this subject. Their comparisons were mainly for top-tier indie games sold through the major portals like Real, GameHouse (which was recently bought by Real), etc. Heading out over to Dexterity.com's forums, you can hear about a lot of people struggling to get more than a handful of sales per month. So on the low end, you have people making no sales, or very few - <10 per month. And that may represent the 'majority.' I don't know if anyone knows for sure.
Indie games CAN do much better than this, of course, but it sounds like there's a fairly wide range.
#5
04/17/2004 (11:35 pm)
Interesting. Is that whitepaper online, Jay?
#6
The best selling online titles sell remarkably well, the worst selling dont sell at all.. so the spectrum in between is quite broad.
04/18/2004 (12:48 am)
Thing is, its like asking how long is a peice of string? there isnt a single figure, because there are so many variables.The best selling online titles sell remarkably well, the worst selling dont sell at all.. so the spectrum in between is quite broad.
#8
04/18/2004 (6:54 am)
I only skimmed it for now, but that's an awesome paper. I can't wait till I have enough free time to sit down and actualy read the whole thing.
#9
Just something to consider. Your information is more important than you might know. We are all currently blind, and running in all different directions because of it. Without these metrics, there is no way we can guage our work and estimate our profits. Without that, failure is almost guaranteed. As it stands, there is no simpler and more effective way to help the indie community.
04/18/2004 (4:48 pm)
So hey, just curious, why don't you give out your sales numbers? Doing so would give indies some BADLY needed metrics in terms of what standards to live up to in order to sell the targetted number of games. Certainly, these extrapolations will be wild estimates, but right now we are all running almost completely blind. And that's a very bad thing for the indie industry, and probably accounts for a large percentage of failures we see currently.Just something to consider. Your information is more important than you might know. We are all currently blind, and running in all different directions because of it. Without these metrics, there is no way we can guage our work and estimate our profits. Without that, failure is almost guaranteed. As it stands, there is no simpler and more effective way to help the indie community.
#10
04/18/2004 (4:56 pm)
There is lots of reasons for GarageGames to not give out sales numbers. GarageGames is a publisher, and giving out the sales numbers for a game would be given out one of thier clients information. If BraveTree wants to release thier numbers, thats all fine, but GarageGames can't (or shouldn't) release BraveTree's numbers. At least not without asking them first. Its just the right way to do things.
#11
04/18/2004 (5:40 pm)
John's right, you might try asking the developers. If 21-6 is already doing (an)other game(s), then it is obvious that they are, indeed making a profit, but that's just my guess :)
#12
Do you just want confirmation that other indies are making money? If so, the answer to that one is simple: "Yes". You don't need the exact numbers.
Also, a business plan does not require exact numbers from someone else. It's not difficult to do a bit of cost-accounting and determine how much revenue your project needs to generate to support you full time. If you have other team members to support, then you need to account for them too. Once you have that number, you start planning how to get from here ($0) to there ($enough) and beyond ($lots).
Asking for sales numbers is very much like asking someone how much they make in a year. In this case, it's like asking a stranger on the street, shouting the question in a loud voice so that everyone in the vicinity can hear you. It's just rude.
If it helps any: for The Indie Game Development Survival Guide I conducted an Indie Developer Survey and included the full results in an appendix. Here are two questions from that survey that you might find useful:
-David
Samu Games
The Indie Game Development Survival Guide
04/18/2004 (5:51 pm)
Even if a developer did provide their sales numbers, what would you do with the information? Would you change your project to be more like theirs? Less like theirs? If you want to follow the crowd, why are you an indie?Do you just want confirmation that other indies are making money? If so, the answer to that one is simple: "Yes". You don't need the exact numbers.
Also, a business plan does not require exact numbers from someone else. It's not difficult to do a bit of cost-accounting and determine how much revenue your project needs to generate to support you full time. If you have other team members to support, then you need to account for them too. Once you have that number, you start planning how to get from here ($0) to there ($enough) and beyond ($lots).
Asking for sales numbers is very much like asking someone how much they make in a year. In this case, it's like asking a stranger on the street, shouting the question in a loud voice so that everyone in the vicinity can hear you. It's just rude.
If it helps any: for The Indie Game Development Survival Guide I conducted an Indie Developer Survey and included the full results in an appendix. Here are two questions from that survey that you might find useful:
Quote:Do you make your primary income from being an indie?
Yes 25% (16)
No 75% (47)
Total Responses 63
How much do you make yearly (before taxes) from your indie products?
< $1,000 43% (27)
< $10,000 14% (9)
< $50,000 8% (5)
< $100,000 6% (4)
$100,000+ 2% (1)
Undisclosed 27% (17)
Total Responses 63
-David
Samu Games
The Indie Game Development Survival Guide
#13
We've given current and projected revenue figures for Marble Blast at over $200,000 during its life cycle. ThinkTanks is GarageGames best seller. In addition to online sales there are some OEM deals, value box deals, overseas distribution deals, cover mount CD or box in some countries and as you've seen from Justin Mette's recent posts even handheld and cabinet arcade revenue streams possible.
We don't try to keep secrets nor do we think that any one game predicts sales of another game. If we said you could sell your independent game studio for $35.3 million (ie GameHouse) that would be an unsound comparison. The same is true for many games - right now casual games sell better online and yet we're all working in a space that is just emerging and the future sales potential will be built on the quality of the games created and the audiences they target.
A good rule of thumb is that you need one good selling game for each employee (more if you work in expensive digs) and you'll still have to do contract work to begin with. Another thing to remember is that you're first effort is likely not to be a best seller or possibly not even hit the mark for getting published/distributed.
04/18/2004 (6:02 pm)
By contract we're not able to disclose information about our distribution agreements - In addition to selling on GarageGames we currently distribute games on Yahoo! Games, Shockwave, RealNetworks, Reflexive, TryMedia, Softwrap and others.We've given current and projected revenue figures for Marble Blast at over $200,000 during its life cycle. ThinkTanks is GarageGames best seller. In addition to online sales there are some OEM deals, value box deals, overseas distribution deals, cover mount CD or box in some countries and as you've seen from Justin Mette's recent posts even handheld and cabinet arcade revenue streams possible.
We don't try to keep secrets nor do we think that any one game predicts sales of another game. If we said you could sell your independent game studio for $35.3 million (ie GameHouse) that would be an unsound comparison. The same is true for many games - right now casual games sell better online and yet we're all working in a space that is just emerging and the future sales potential will be built on the quality of the games created and the audiences they target.
A good rule of thumb is that you need one good selling game for each employee (more if you work in expensive digs) and you'll still have to do contract work to begin with. Another thing to remember is that you're first effort is likely not to be a best seller or possibly not even hit the mark for getting published/distributed.
#14
I hear ya'lls concerns. It may be a little rude to ask what sales figures might be, but sometimes in life, you got to forsake a little politeness to get what you need, IMO.
And yeah, it makes sense that a publisher can't give out sales figures until asking their developers. So the best thing I can do is try to get into contact with the developers, and ask them to allow me to publish their information publicly.
Getting this information, of course, won't be a cure-all for our indie woes, but it will it least give us some admittedly fuzzy metrics to make some more accurate business and design decisions. In terms of metrical estimates, it is better to have very bad vision and see a little than to be totally blind and see nothing at all.
In fact, I WOULD change my project to be like theirs, but only in terms of technical and budgetary aspirations. We need to know what is the minimum development we can put into a game (in order to minimize risk of project failure) and still have it meet our (estimated) sales goals. This does not mean that it would be wise to copy the game _ideas_ or mimic the _gameplay_ in any way - in fact, the resulting lack of originality would obviously decrease sales! An indie's strongest trait is his ability to innovate and capture new markets. But as it stands, we have no idea how much development time a potentially profitable AND feasible game would take - at a certain point, if we put too much time into a game, it fails. Conversely, if we don't put enough development into it, it won't sell as well as it could have. We need to know what the correct balance between time and quality. Given the right data, we can put this data into a basic calculus function, and can actually find the point where the greatest profitability is acheived per unit of development time. That's why we need this data. Certainly it won't be a perfect or even accurate extrapolation, but it's infinitely better than seeing nothing at all.
04/18/2004 (6:36 pm)
Oh. okay.I hear ya'lls concerns. It may be a little rude to ask what sales figures might be, but sometimes in life, you got to forsake a little politeness to get what you need, IMO.
And yeah, it makes sense that a publisher can't give out sales figures until asking their developers. So the best thing I can do is try to get into contact with the developers, and ask them to allow me to publish their information publicly.
Getting this information, of course, won't be a cure-all for our indie woes, but it will it least give us some admittedly fuzzy metrics to make some more accurate business and design decisions. In terms of metrical estimates, it is better to have very bad vision and see a little than to be totally blind and see nothing at all.
Quote:David Micheal said:
"Even if a developer did provide their sales numbers, what would you do with the information? Would you change your project to be more like theirs? Less like theirs? If you want to follow the crowd, why are you an indie?"
In fact, I WOULD change my project to be like theirs, but only in terms of technical and budgetary aspirations. We need to know what is the minimum development we can put into a game (in order to minimize risk of project failure) and still have it meet our (estimated) sales goals. This does not mean that it would be wise to copy the game _ideas_ or mimic the _gameplay_ in any way - in fact, the resulting lack of originality would obviously decrease sales! An indie's strongest trait is his ability to innovate and capture new markets. But as it stands, we have no idea how much development time a potentially profitable AND feasible game would take - at a certain point, if we put too much time into a game, it fails. Conversely, if we don't put enough development into it, it won't sell as well as it could have. We need to know what the correct balance between time and quality. Given the right data, we can put this data into a basic calculus function, and can actually find the point where the greatest profitability is acheived per unit of development time. That's why we need this data. Certainly it won't be a perfect or even accurate extrapolation, but it's infinitely better than seeing nothing at all.
#15
What do I mean? Well, knowing how many sales a title get tells you almost nothing. For instance, I could say I've sold 5k copies of a game. Great, now you have data to work from, right?
Abolutely, positively wrong. What you have is data that's going to get your butt in a sling real quick.
You need to know:
1) How many copies were sold
2) If those, how many were sold at what price point. This is important - I could have just as easily sold a ton of 'em to a PC manufacturer to package with new machines, at a price point MUCH lower than my typical price.
3) What channels were utilized in these sales, and what was the final profit (per title) for each of these channels. Without this, it's easy to assume that they sold a game for $20 and made $17.50 for each sale. But if you sell a game through Shockwave, GarageGames, Real1Arcade, direct online sales, etc., the profit margins change an amazing amount.
4) Marketing budget. How much was spent to get those sales? Makes a huge difference - if it averages out to having spent $7 per sale, it's a lot different than an average of $.50 per sale.
I'm ignoring development costs in this case, and a number of other variable of note. That's intentional - I don't need to get overly complicated with this.
So, back to the original thing - if I told you I sold 5K units, and you made up a business model based off of that information, it would be wrong. You don't have enough to work with to make it resonable. Then, even if you did get resonable data from me, it's still meaningless - you need it from multiple sources before you've got something really workable. Why? Because - just because I sold 5k units does not mean the next game sells 5k units. You need to see the bigger picture - do all titles in that area sell that many units, or is there only one 'fluke' leader now?
For instance - if you look at PopCap games, you'd get the idea that you can make a mint from a game like Bejeweled. But if you contrast it's sales with Boulder Panic! (I released BP! the same time that Bejeweled was coming out, as far as I know) it looks much different - yeah, you could make money in that field, but, you aren't going to walk away with a fortune from one title. (BP! sold resonably well, and continues to sell to this day - but I'm definitely not going to pay my mortgage with JUST BP! sales :-) Start factoring in even more puzzle games, and the picture gets clearer. One title's figures don't make a marketing / business plan.
Even worse, you'd assume that these sales figures still apply. The market changes - BP! sold about 3 times as many games in 2000 as it does now. (Why this game sells at all now is a mystery to me. It looks old and dated now, I don't market it, etc.)
So am I saying this is all useless, don't bother with the data? Hell no - it's still useful. Pull in data from a couple of sources, make sure it applies to the plan you have in mind, and get some deep information to go with it. There's a number of people here in the GG community that can and will answer questions, of you ask them privately (but some won't - at the moment, you couldn't pry my sales figures outta my with a crowbar. But that may change in the not too distant future.) There's also other forums to discuss this in too.
The IGDA survey mentioned is probably one of the best sources of data boiled down into something fairly meaningful If you haven't looked at it - do. 93 pages of data. While it might not tell you EXACTLY what you wanted to know, it's going to get you closer than any one single source of data will.
04/18/2004 (8:13 pm)
Something not covered here is the validity of data that stands alone.What do I mean? Well, knowing how many sales a title get tells you almost nothing. For instance, I could say I've sold 5k copies of a game. Great, now you have data to work from, right?
Abolutely, positively wrong. What you have is data that's going to get your butt in a sling real quick.
You need to know:
1) How many copies were sold
2) If those, how many were sold at what price point. This is important - I could have just as easily sold a ton of 'em to a PC manufacturer to package with new machines, at a price point MUCH lower than my typical price.
3) What channels were utilized in these sales, and what was the final profit (per title) for each of these channels. Without this, it's easy to assume that they sold a game for $20 and made $17.50 for each sale. But if you sell a game through Shockwave, GarageGames, Real1Arcade, direct online sales, etc., the profit margins change an amazing amount.
4) Marketing budget. How much was spent to get those sales? Makes a huge difference - if it averages out to having spent $7 per sale, it's a lot different than an average of $.50 per sale.
I'm ignoring development costs in this case, and a number of other variable of note. That's intentional - I don't need to get overly complicated with this.
So, back to the original thing - if I told you I sold 5K units, and you made up a business model based off of that information, it would be wrong. You don't have enough to work with to make it resonable. Then, even if you did get resonable data from me, it's still meaningless - you need it from multiple sources before you've got something really workable. Why? Because - just because I sold 5k units does not mean the next game sells 5k units. You need to see the bigger picture - do all titles in that area sell that many units, or is there only one 'fluke' leader now?
For instance - if you look at PopCap games, you'd get the idea that you can make a mint from a game like Bejeweled. But if you contrast it's sales with Boulder Panic! (I released BP! the same time that Bejeweled was coming out, as far as I know) it looks much different - yeah, you could make money in that field, but, you aren't going to walk away with a fortune from one title. (BP! sold resonably well, and continues to sell to this day - but I'm definitely not going to pay my mortgage with JUST BP! sales :-) Start factoring in even more puzzle games, and the picture gets clearer. One title's figures don't make a marketing / business plan.
Even worse, you'd assume that these sales figures still apply. The market changes - BP! sold about 3 times as many games in 2000 as it does now. (Why this game sells at all now is a mystery to me. It looks old and dated now, I don't market it, etc.)
So am I saying this is all useless, don't bother with the data? Hell no - it's still useful. Pull in data from a couple of sources, make sure it applies to the plan you have in mind, and get some deep information to go with it. There's a number of people here in the GG community that can and will answer questions, of you ask them privately (but some won't - at the moment, you couldn't pry my sales figures outta my with a crowbar. But that may change in the not too distant future.) There's also other forums to discuss this in too.
The IGDA survey mentioned is probably one of the best sources of data boiled down into something fairly meaningful If you haven't looked at it - do. 93 pages of data. While it might not tell you EXACTLY what you wanted to know, it's going to get you closer than any one single source of data will.
#16
I looked at the IGDA publication, but I didn't see much. Apparently I didn't look deep enough, because I only saw a few numbers and 1 page. I'll try to look a bit deeper, and hopefull that'll have the info I seek.
04/18/2004 (8:27 pm)
Right, you would need adequate data to form a model. Sales data is but one piece of what would be necessary to know - but it would be necessary nontheless, IMO. Like I said, it wouldn't be totally comprehensive, or even accurate, but it we would be better off knowing than not.I looked at the IGDA publication, but I didn't see much. Apparently I didn't look deep enough, because I only saw a few numbers and 1 page. I'll try to look a bit deeper, and hopefull that'll have the info I seek.
#17
You said it right there, all that needed to be said (but I never miss an opportunity to say more). Not being accurate data will screw you over. It just doesn't get any more simple than that. You are not better off knowing - you will promptly shoot yourself in the foot, multiple times, with an extremely large calibre weapon with bad data. That's exactly what data like sales figures without the supporting information - bad data.
You only saw one page - yeah, look further.
04/18/2004 (8:46 pm)
Quote:it wouldn't be totally comprehensive, or even accurate
You said it right there, all that needed to be said (but I never miss an opportunity to say more). Not being accurate data will screw you over. It just doesn't get any more simple than that. You are not better off knowing - you will promptly shoot yourself in the foot, multiple times, with an extremely large calibre weapon with bad data. That's exactly what data like sales figures without the supporting information - bad data.
You only saw one page - yeah, look further.
#18
i just thought it would be an interesting piece of knowledge to have and to just know what to expect from my work. i wasnt prying or anything.
04/18/2004 (10:27 pm)
Quote:Even if a developer did provide their sales numbers, what would you do with the information? Would you change your project to be more like theirs? Less like theirs? If you want to follow the crowd, why are you an indie?
i just thought it would be an interesting piece of knowledge to have and to just know what to expect from my work. i wasnt prying or anything.
#19
Remember, kids, there are three kinds of lies in the world:
1) Lies
2) Damn Lies
3) Statics
Sales figures out of context would be number 3 ;)
04/18/2004 (11:50 pm)
Just to be Davis's choir here...Remember, kids, there are three kinds of lies in the world:
1) Lies
2) Damn Lies
3) Statics
Sales figures out of context would be number 3 ;)
#20
The problem is that games biz - retail as well as indie - is extremely "hit-driven." That means virtually nobody makes the "average" - everyone tends towards the extremes of the spectrum. At least that's MY understanding based on what I've been able to uncover.
04/19/2004 (9:09 am)
I think I asked the same kind of question before. I come from the retail development side of the fence, and so I'm used to the idea that 40,000 is a "poor seller." But for a low-budget indie, that quantity (especially within just the first year, which is just about the lifespan of a retail game) would be extremely lucrative. If indie games were selling those kind of "failure" numbers regularly, on OUR budgets, we'd all be driving expensive sports cars and thinking about retiring.The problem is that games biz - retail as well as indie - is extremely "hit-driven." That means virtually nobody makes the "average" - everyone tends towards the extremes of the spectrum. At least that's MY understanding based on what I've been able to uncover.
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