Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#2
01/08/2009 (4:39 pm)
Hmm... wonder if Vegas is tracking odds in this. Certainly this specific theory has come up or been published somewhere. If not, maybe you can have an earthquake named after you ;p
#3
@Brian, I saw a couple of documentaries on TV about the moon and the tides, one of them said the moon was pulling away from the earth and went back billions of years when it was closer. That first one said the early moon (billions of years ago) pulled on the earths liquid magma. I'm guessing our current moon still does, to a lesser extent. Then I saw the documentary on the eclipse and the earth quakes. Makes sense to me.
The closest thing I could find on line is this article: India planetary angular momentum theory.
01/08/2009 (7:11 pm)
@Mike, I placed the basic ideas here on how to implement this idea The idea like the theory is probably half baked.@Brian, I saw a couple of documentaries on TV about the moon and the tides, one of them said the moon was pulling away from the earth and went back billions of years when it was closer. That first one said the early moon (billions of years ago) pulled on the earths liquid magma. I'm guessing our current moon still does, to a lesser extent. Then I saw the documentary on the eclipse and the earth quakes. Makes sense to me.
The closest thing I could find on line is this article: India planetary angular momentum theory.
#4
PS
(I have no experience in earthquakes or geology... I just make video games, and do software consulting) So if my predictions with this theory are wrong.... I'll hang up my earthquake science hat for and the earthquake simulation idea for good.
01/08/2009 (7:55 pm)
@Brian, I'm willing to wager my credibility as an earthquake scientist. PS
(I have no experience in earthquakes or geology... I just make video games, and do software consulting) So if my predictions with this theory are wrong.... I'll hang up my earthquake science hat for and the earthquake simulation idea for good.
#5
Britton, an interesting theory. i'm sure that solar and lunar tidal forces can influence the likelihood of an earthquake at any given time, but they can only be part of a large, complex equation involving the particular state of the crust, etc.
have you tried running your theory against historical earthquake & eclipse data ?
also, on a tangent, you might be interested in the Allais effect, a somewhat contended effect wherein the period of a pendulum will change during a full solar eclipse.
01/09/2009 (9:28 am)
hm, i thought i posted this yesterday but i must have messed up,Britton, an interesting theory. i'm sure that solar and lunar tidal forces can influence the likelihood of an earthquake at any given time, but they can only be part of a large, complex equation involving the particular state of the crust, etc.
have you tried running your theory against historical earthquake & eclipse data ?
also, on a tangent, you might be interested in the Allais effect, a somewhat contended effect wherein the period of a pendulum will change during a full solar eclipse.
#6
01/09/2009 (3:47 pm)
you might also be interested in lunar perigee, which is when the moon is closest to the earth, and happens about every thirteen months. apparently this perigean tide can vary by a few to many centimeters.
#7
01/09/2009 (4:25 pm)
@Orion, very interesting stuff. The allais effect supports the theory that the gravitation field is distorted by an eclipse. The Allais effect does not have to be a huge effect on a small pendulum to have a giant effect on a very large surface like a tectonic plate. 
#8
i am sorry to say that your theory is truly not baked at all.
the theory you've apply is for fluid engineering, hydrology or oceanographic.
further more the theory of gravity explained is applied wrongly in this case. that in your prediction will only happen if the earth have zero gravity, then i will be totally agree with you.
simple explanation,
1part:
"a ball fill with water will drop downward."
- the ball assumed is the earth, the water inside assumed is the magma.
- the water inside will not pull out of the ball to burst the surface of the ball
- instead of that the entire medium will be pull toward the gravitational attraction.
- this explain the astronomical gravity of sun pull towards the mother earth
2part:
"the ball suspended in air with a string, surface wet with water"
- the ball will not drop downward
- the surface water will drip at the point facing the gravity force.
- the suspended ball assumed as the earth with center figure force floated in the universal.
- water at the ball surface assumed as ocean with tide.
- you can understand it better if you refer more to tidal and ocean stream or tidal consituent.
the central figure force is something that "why this exist?", please refer to Newton's book & theory and story of apple drop towards the earth, why not out ward to sky.
3part,(more interesting)
the force explain in your theory is the act of solar and moon's gravity force, but mother earth center figure force is much much X1000 greater that the astronomical gravity.
the main element in the function is (mass / distance to center gravity)
so the greatest gravity we can experience on earth is the gravity 9.8m/s2. which this value is already offset from gravity force from sun moon and other astronomical medium out there. that's the reason why apply drops.
the statement :"magma pull out by gravity force of sun and moon"
the live magma and medium inside our earth is the major medium that generates gravity field of earth. they form a body of a big magnet that pull all mass towards them, they will never been pull out from crust.
earth quake and volcano happen is when the activity in the core is too active that they are "squeezed" out, instead of "pull" out explained in your statement.
so these theory also apply to any other planet that the reason why magma on sun surface is not "pull" towards our earth, and why the sun is in round/eclipse shape although the sun is form by liquid magma.
please refer more of the theory at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity
earth quake or volcano will happen on 22July 2009 only if on that day the activity of tectonic/seismic is great enough to shift the crust...it will never be caused by the eclipse. sorry to prove you wrong.
04/09/2009 (12:23 am)
I wrote this because i received an email from the readers of this blog, then the email is spreading around recently. i was request to give advice on this......i am sorry to say that your theory is truly not baked at all.
the theory you've apply is for fluid engineering, hydrology or oceanographic.
further more the theory of gravity explained is applied wrongly in this case. that in your prediction will only happen if the earth have zero gravity, then i will be totally agree with you.
simple explanation,
1part:
"a ball fill with water will drop downward."
- the ball assumed is the earth, the water inside assumed is the magma.
- the water inside will not pull out of the ball to burst the surface of the ball
- instead of that the entire medium will be pull toward the gravitational attraction.
- this explain the astronomical gravity of sun pull towards the mother earth
2part:
"the ball suspended in air with a string, surface wet with water"
- the ball will not drop downward
- the surface water will drip at the point facing the gravity force.
- the suspended ball assumed as the earth with center figure force floated in the universal.
- water at the ball surface assumed as ocean with tide.
- you can understand it better if you refer more to tidal and ocean stream or tidal consituent.
the central figure force is something that "why this exist?", please refer to Newton's book & theory and story of apple drop towards the earth, why not out ward to sky.
3part,(more interesting)
the force explain in your theory is the act of solar and moon's gravity force, but mother earth center figure force is much much X1000 greater that the astronomical gravity.
the main element in the function is (mass / distance to center gravity)
so the greatest gravity we can experience on earth is the gravity 9.8m/s2. which this value is already offset from gravity force from sun moon and other astronomical medium out there. that's the reason why apply drops.
the statement :"magma pull out by gravity force of sun and moon"
the live magma and medium inside our earth is the major medium that generates gravity field of earth. they form a body of a big magnet that pull all mass towards them, they will never been pull out from crust.
earth quake and volcano happen is when the activity in the core is too active that they are "squeezed" out, instead of "pull" out explained in your statement.
so these theory also apply to any other planet that the reason why magma on sun surface is not "pull" towards our earth, and why the sun is in round/eclipse shape although the sun is form by liquid magma.
please refer more of the theory at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity
earth quake or volcano will happen on 22July 2009 only if on that day the activity of tectonic/seismic is great enough to shift the crust...it will never be caused by the eclipse. sorry to prove you wrong.
#9
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-217369
04/09/2009 (12:58 am)
There has been spiritual predictions of this impending disaster too. Check it out here..http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-217369
#10
04/14/2009 (5:10 pm)
Do you realize that people have copied bits and pieces of your "theory" and are distributing it all over the world as a "tsunami warning" of an impending disaster???!!! Your crap theory, which is totally not valid based on any field of science, is causing panic e-mails to be sent throughout Asia telling people to stay away from beaches and low lying areas during the month of July!! You need to Google this subject and reply to each and every one of the "warnings" and let them know you don't know what hell you are talking about and that there is NO scientific basis for what you theorized!
#12
http://tsun.sscc.ru/tsunami2009/
IUGG Tsunami Commission should have some respond upon this issue if the outcome is too serious until July. it should be answered by people who is responsible, and facts will be told.
may be the writer of this "warning" is the commissioning committee that help to promote the up coming symposium....
But it proved the naif, irresponsible, and noisome of his act.
04/14/2009 (6:53 pm)
your act will has drawn the attention of 24th International Tsunami Symposium, July 14-17 2009 Novosibirsk, Russia. which is fall conjunction with your prediction date.http://tsun.sscc.ru/tsunami2009/
IUGG Tsunami Commission should have some respond upon this issue if the outcome is too serious until July. it should be answered by people who is responsible, and facts will be told.
may be the writer of this "warning" is the commissioning committee that help to promote the up coming symposium....
But it proved the naif, irresponsible, and noisome of his act.
#13
Heather Jones, I hope you notice that Britton has made NO claims of being an expert. He makes it clear that he is an amateur, not a "credible scientist." As for his "crap theory" that is not based on "valid... science," I'd say you're off the mark.
"Real" scientists come up with crap theories ALL THE TIME! There's no right way and no wrong way to come up with a theory. All a theory really needs is to be TESTABLE. And Britton's theory is 100% testable. If there's an Earthquake on or around the date he predicted, his theory might have merit, if there's no earthquake the theory is disproved, that's all there is to it.
Heather, you should be flaming the people who irresponsibly copied "bits and pieces" of his theory and distributed it as a valid warning, not this programmer who's post is obviously amateur speculation.
04/24/2009 (10:09 am)
Interesting theory, Britton LaRoche.Heather Jones, I hope you notice that Britton has made NO claims of being an expert. He makes it clear that he is an amateur, not a "credible scientist." As for his "crap theory" that is not based on "valid... science," I'd say you're off the mark.
"Real" scientists come up with crap theories ALL THE TIME! There's no right way and no wrong way to come up with a theory. All a theory really needs is to be TESTABLE. And Britton's theory is 100% testable. If there's an Earthquake on or around the date he predicted, his theory might have merit, if there's no earthquake the theory is disproved, that's all there is to it.
Heather, you should be flaming the people who irresponsibly copied "bits and pieces" of his theory and distributed it as a valid warning, not this programmer who's post is obviously amateur speculation.
#14
Earthquake Simulator
Its kind of interesting that a possible prediction gets more attention than the post about making the simulator itself.
I hope it does not cause any chaos or confusion. I think the theory has merit, and if seismologists have not calculated the gravitational pull of the moon in their earth quake predictions, I think they should. Of all the observable phenomenon that could influence an earth quake, this one (the gravitational pull of the moon) is perfectly predictable. Look at the tides... the effect of the moon's gravitational pull is real.
Will there be an earthquake on July 22nd 2009? I have no idea. But, the lunar / solar gravitational pull theory supports it. As Christopher Flanagan rightfully stated above, this theory is 100% testable. If people do take precaution on July 22nd and it saves lives then I'll be very happy. On the other hand if things get out of hand and it causes chaos and confusion then I'll be very upset, that is not my intent.
I don't know if the idea is valid or not. We will see. I've made no claims to know anything about this stuff. But if the theory is right, then I think the seismologists should factor lunar and solar gravitational pulls into their equations.
I was going to make another post on this topic, with more details but I'll hold off, and see what happens first. Again Chris is right, lately in April several emails circulated about as if this were scientific fact. Its just a theory.
This article was posted on Snopes. http://www.snopes.com/science/tsunami.asp
Its listed as false. They consulted seismologists in CA who discount this theory. They probably know more than I do on the topic.
I'll tell you one thing for sure. If there is an earthquake in Japan and a Tsunami on or shortly after July 22nd 2009, then I'm building a simulator. One final note, the theory is not mine. I'm just suggesting we build a simulator to test the theory. Here is a link to another site India Daily that suggests there is something to this.
05/04/2009 (12:00 pm)
First of all I'm not an expert in this field and I do not claim to be. I posted this article back in January 2009. The whole reason I posted it was based of an idea I had after watching a short TV show that discussed the the theory that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon together during an eclipse can cause an earthquake.Earthquake Simulator
Its kind of interesting that a possible prediction gets more attention than the post about making the simulator itself.
I hope it does not cause any chaos or confusion. I think the theory has merit, and if seismologists have not calculated the gravitational pull of the moon in their earth quake predictions, I think they should. Of all the observable phenomenon that could influence an earth quake, this one (the gravitational pull of the moon) is perfectly predictable. Look at the tides... the effect of the moon's gravitational pull is real.
Will there be an earthquake on July 22nd 2009? I have no idea. But, the lunar / solar gravitational pull theory supports it. As Christopher Flanagan rightfully stated above, this theory is 100% testable. If people do take precaution on July 22nd and it saves lives then I'll be very happy. On the other hand if things get out of hand and it causes chaos and confusion then I'll be very upset, that is not my intent.
I don't know if the idea is valid or not. We will see. I've made no claims to know anything about this stuff. But if the theory is right, then I think the seismologists should factor lunar and solar gravitational pulls into their equations.
I was going to make another post on this topic, with more details but I'll hold off, and see what happens first. Again Chris is right, lately in April several emails circulated about as if this were scientific fact. Its just a theory.
This article was posted on Snopes. http://www.snopes.com/science/tsunami.asp
Its listed as false. They consulted seismologists in CA who discount this theory. They probably know more than I do on the topic.
I'll tell you one thing for sure. If there is an earthquake in Japan and a Tsunami on or shortly after July 22nd 2009, then I'm building a simulator. One final note, the theory is not mine. I'm just suggesting we build a simulator to test the theory. Here is a link to another site India Daily that suggests there is something to this.
#15
Discounting the Eclipse Quake Theory
The discounters of the theory say that pressure between the tectonic plates cause earth quakes and the earth's gravitational pull far exceeds the moon and sun's gravitational pull during an eclipse.
More importantly the rightfully say that not every eclipse causes an earth quake. Historical data shows that not every eclipse had an earth quake associated with it. And if there was an eclipse the earth quake was not in the same region.
Granted. The question is if the gravitation pull during an eclipse is greater then why don't we see an earthquake with every eclipse? The answer is simple. Not every eclipse passes over two or more tectonic plates.
The July 22nd Eclipse will pass over 4 distinct tectonic plates. 3 of them are major players just beneath Japan.
Supporting the Eclipse Quake Theory
I don't think they discounters understand the theory. The idea is if the moon's pull combined with the Sun's has the lift ratio of (a unit) per cubic mile and we are talking two miles deep and 1000 x 1000 miles wide that's 2 million units.
I have no idea what the unit is. But, if the unit is a pound then that is a force of 1,000 tons lifting on a plate. If the plate already has enough pressure and its above the subducted plate, then this little nudge is all that is needed to release the pressure and let the subducted plate slide under. Its not just the rock of the tectonic plate that is affected, but the weight of all the water (in the tide), and the magma tide beneath the rock that factor in to the equation. The important thing to note is that all though the earth's gravitational pull is greater, it is constant. The only unique variable is the added gravitational pull from the sun and the moon when they are aligned.
But... that's not the reason why I think this particular July 22nd 2009 eclipse will be the catalyst for a quake.
Britton's House of Cards Hypothesis
The only thing preventing the quake is the friction between the plates. Much like a house of cards the friction between the plates holds them together and prevents the subducted plate from sinking.
Japan has three main plates seen above. So our house of cards simulator will also have 3 cards. The king of hearts (Eurasian plate) rests above the Queen of Hearts(Phillipine Plate) and the Ace of Spades (pacific plate). King over Ace, Queen over Ace, but under King. In the real world there is yet another plate, but for now lets keep the simulator simple. (this does not take into account the current amount pressure built up between the tectonic plates, it just demonstrates the concept that friction is all that prevents the subducted plate from sinking)
Just wave your hands... the air lifts and pulls on the cards. If its enough force the lower cards will drop. What happened? The friction against the King card is all that supports the subducted Queen and Ace cards. Naturally this simulator its not really the same thing. But the concept of friction between the plates stopping the sliding (earthquake) is the same basic principle we are testing. At what point does the added force of a solar eclipse have an effect?
I think for the July 2009 case (if it ever could have an effect) its a good test. Its the number of plates and the upward lift (both from the rock crust above and magma below) that is the heart of the theory. Looking only at Solar Eclipse data for regions like this could we say we have a qualified test sample.
If there is anything to the Eclipse Earthquake theory I think we should see it in July of 2009 right along the path of the Eclipse.
Eclipse With no Quake
Here is an example of a Solar Eclipse that will not cause a quake.
The 2010 Solar eclipse in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Plate) will not cause an earthquake. Why? Simply put, the gravitational pull is only on one tectonic plate. Its like pulling up on on one flat card. You need a lot of pull to do anything. The eclipse does not pass any fault lines. This could explain why you don't always have an earth quake with a Solar Eclipse.
So using my paper simulator... I'd say that in 2010 Chile is safe... But in July of 2009 Japan (and others) are not safe.
The test of this theory will take place on or shortly after July 22nd 2009. I have nothing to do with the theory or the test... just suggesting we (as a human people) dig deeper if there is a correlation between the two.
05/05/2009 (1:21 pm)
I'm planning on one more post as we near the July 22nd date. The main reason is I'd like to share the following hypothesis. Lets look at the arguments for and against the eclipse quake theory.Discounting the Eclipse Quake Theory
The discounters of the theory say that pressure between the tectonic plates cause earth quakes and the earth's gravitational pull far exceeds the moon and sun's gravitational pull during an eclipse.
More importantly the rightfully say that not every eclipse causes an earth quake. Historical data shows that not every eclipse had an earth quake associated with it. And if there was an eclipse the earth quake was not in the same region.
Granted. The question is if the gravitation pull during an eclipse is greater then why don't we see an earthquake with every eclipse? The answer is simple. Not every eclipse passes over two or more tectonic plates.
The July 22nd Eclipse will pass over 4 distinct tectonic plates. 3 of them are major players just beneath Japan.
Supporting the Eclipse Quake Theory
I don't think they discounters understand the theory. The idea is if the moon's pull combined with the Sun's has the lift ratio of (a unit) per cubic mile and we are talking two miles deep and 1000 x 1000 miles wide that's 2 million units.
I have no idea what the unit is. But, if the unit is a pound then that is a force of 1,000 tons lifting on a plate. If the plate already has enough pressure and its above the subducted plate, then this little nudge is all that is needed to release the pressure and let the subducted plate slide under. Its not just the rock of the tectonic plate that is affected, but the weight of all the water (in the tide), and the magma tide beneath the rock that factor in to the equation. The important thing to note is that all though the earth's gravitational pull is greater, it is constant. The only unique variable is the added gravitational pull from the sun and the moon when they are aligned.
But... that's not the reason why I think this particular July 22nd 2009 eclipse will be the catalyst for a quake.
Britton's House of Cards Hypothesis
The only thing preventing the quake is the friction between the plates. Much like a house of cards the friction between the plates holds them together and prevents the subducted plate from sinking.
Japan has three main plates seen above. So our house of cards simulator will also have 3 cards. The king of hearts (Eurasian plate) rests above the Queen of Hearts(Phillipine Plate) and the Ace of Spades (pacific plate). King over Ace, Queen over Ace, but under King. In the real world there is yet another plate, but for now lets keep the simulator simple. (this does not take into account the current amount pressure built up between the tectonic plates, it just demonstrates the concept that friction is all that prevents the subducted plate from sinking)
Just wave your hands... the air lifts and pulls on the cards. If its enough force the lower cards will drop. What happened? The friction against the King card is all that supports the subducted Queen and Ace cards. Naturally this simulator its not really the same thing. But the concept of friction between the plates stopping the sliding (earthquake) is the same basic principle we are testing. At what point does the added force of a solar eclipse have an effect?
I think for the July 2009 case (if it ever could have an effect) its a good test. Its the number of plates and the upward lift (both from the rock crust above and magma below) that is the heart of the theory. Looking only at Solar Eclipse data for regions like this could we say we have a qualified test sample.
If there is anything to the Eclipse Earthquake theory I think we should see it in July of 2009 right along the path of the Eclipse.
Eclipse With no Quake
Here is an example of a Solar Eclipse that will not cause a quake.
The 2010 Solar eclipse in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Plate) will not cause an earthquake. Why? Simply put, the gravitational pull is only on one tectonic plate. Its like pulling up on on one flat card. You need a lot of pull to do anything. The eclipse does not pass any fault lines. This could explain why you don't always have an earth quake with a Solar Eclipse.
So using my paper simulator... I'd say that in 2010 Chile is safe... But in July of 2009 Japan (and others) are not safe.
The test of this theory will take place on or shortly after July 22nd 2009. I have nothing to do with the theory or the test... just suggesting we (as a human people) dig deeper if there is a correlation between the two.
#16
05/05/2009 (1:44 pm)
britton, an obvious test for this theory is to compare it to historical data; have you done that ?
#17
I'm really amazed that this one blog post on one game site generated so much attention. I found this information today. A scientist from Caltech has already done the historical comparison. According to Caltech there is no correlation between Solar Eclipse dates and Earthquakes in the past. (See posts below where I think I have found many)
www.earthobservatory.sg/news/2009/20090415-July22-Tsunami-Hoax/index.php
urbanlegends.about.com/od/errata/ss/july_22_tsunami_2.htm
Here is Professor Kerry Sieh credentials (much better than mine)
www.gps.caltech.edu/~sieh/index.html
That's the biggest blow to the theory. But, the data Professor Sieh is talking about does not take into account the location of the Eclipse to the tectonic plates... And I only have the past few years on the NASA site to compare to.
The hypothesis I'm proposing is that the number of tectonic plates that the eclipse passes over and where it passes them is important. If it passes right over the fault lines, that is where there might be a problem.
I don't know of any historical eclipse data that passed right over this spot (or others like it) to compare to. The evidence leans heavily toward no quake or Tsunami on July 22nd 2009.
One thing is for sure, I wont be in that region on that day. Its a no win situation for me. If there is no quake and tsunami to worry about on July 22nd in South East Asia, then the people in the region that I unwittingly scared with this blog post would probably have a few choice words for me.
However, if there is a quake of any size in that region on that day, I'll probably have trouble letting go of the idea that Solar Eclipses have something to do with earth quakes.
Matching Quakes to Solar Eclipses
I spent an hour and found a hit. Found some good sites to do the digging for an Eclipse in or near that region, and find some quake data. In less than one hour I found one hit and one miss. So far the theory has a 50% success ratio in Asia. (Not a Scientific Sample... I challenge others to find hits too, I'll be doing this off an on for a while)
Here is the main NASA Eclipse Site. (Look For Total Solar Eclipses)
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html
Here is data from 1900 that shows instrumental recordings of earthquakes (best data is after 1976)
earthquake.usgs.gov/research/data/centennial.php
Apparent Miss
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1988Mar18T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1988.php
Apparent Hit - Solar Eclipse and Quake same Region Same day
China
August 1st 2008
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEmono/TSE2008/TSE2008.html
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2008.php
August 11 1999
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1999Aug11T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1999.php
05/05/2009 (2:56 pm)
@Orion,I'm really amazed that this one blog post on one game site generated so much attention. I found this information today. A scientist from Caltech has already done the historical comparison. According to Caltech there is no correlation between Solar Eclipse dates and Earthquakes in the past. (See posts below where I think I have found many)
Quote:
"In the last 110 years or so, there have been about 85 really big earthquakes," Professor Kerry Sieh of Singapore's Earth Observatory explained in a statement to Channel News Asia in April 2009. "And only two of those occurred on the same day as an eclipse. And even those were a partial eclipse, not a total eclipse. They happened in a different place from where the eclipse happened."
www.earthobservatory.sg/news/2009/20090415-July22-Tsunami-Hoax/index.php
urbanlegends.about.com/od/errata/ss/july_22_tsunami_2.htm
Here is Professor Kerry Sieh credentials (much better than mine)
www.gps.caltech.edu/~sieh/index.html
That's the biggest blow to the theory. But, the data Professor Sieh is talking about does not take into account the location of the Eclipse to the tectonic plates... And I only have the past few years on the NASA site to compare to.
The hypothesis I'm proposing is that the number of tectonic plates that the eclipse passes over and where it passes them is important. If it passes right over the fault lines, that is where there might be a problem.
I don't know of any historical eclipse data that passed right over this spot (or others like it) to compare to. The evidence leans heavily toward no quake or Tsunami on July 22nd 2009.
One thing is for sure, I wont be in that region on that day. Its a no win situation for me. If there is no quake and tsunami to worry about on July 22nd in South East Asia, then the people in the region that I unwittingly scared with this blog post would probably have a few choice words for me.
However, if there is a quake of any size in that region on that day, I'll probably have trouble letting go of the idea that Solar Eclipses have something to do with earth quakes.
Matching Quakes to Solar Eclipses
I spent an hour and found a hit. Found some good sites to do the digging for an Eclipse in or near that region, and find some quake data. In less than one hour I found one hit and one miss. So far the theory has a 50% success ratio in Asia. (Not a Scientific Sample... I challenge others to find hits too, I'll be doing this off an on for a while)
Here is the main NASA Eclipse Site. (Look For Total Solar Eclipses)
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html
Here is data from 1900 that shows instrumental recordings of earthquakes (best data is after 1976)
earthquake.usgs.gov/research/data/centennial.php
Apparent Miss
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1988Mar18T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1988.php
Apparent Hit - Solar Eclipse and Quake same Region Same day
China
August 1st 2008
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEmono/TSE2008/TSE2008.html
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2008.php
Quote:Possible Hit
AUG 01 08 32 43.6 32.033 N 104.722 E 11 G 5.7 0.7 522
SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA. MW 5.7 (GS), 5.7 (GCMT). mb
5.9 (GS). MS 5.6 (GS). ME 6.1 (GS). Mo 4.9*10**17 Nm (GS),
4.1*10**17 Nm (GCMT). Es 2.8*10**13 Nm (GS). At least 231 people
injured, 540 houses destroyed and 2,450 houses damaged in
Beichuan and Pingwu. Several landslides and rockfalls blocked
roads in Pingwu. Cellular phone service interrupted in Beichuan.
Felt (V) at Mianyang; (III) at Chengdu and Chongqing; (II) at
Xi'an. Also felt at Ankang, Baoji, Daxian, Deyang, Fuling,
Guangyuan, Hanzhong, Jiangyou, Lanzhou, Leshan, Luzhou,
Nanchong, Nanlong, Tianshui, Ya'an, Yanliang and Yibin.
August 11 1999
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1999Aug11T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1999.php
Quote:
AUG 11 04 27 55.3 34.791 N 32.939 E 33 N 5.1 5.4 1.2 234
CYPRUS REGION. Mw 5.6 (HRV). Mo=2.9*10**17 Nm (HRV). At
least 15 people injured, 32 buildings damaged (VII) and
landslides in the Limassol area. At least 50 buildings
damaged in other parts of Cyprus. Felt (V) at Nicosia,
(IV) at Larnaca and (III) at Paphos. Also felt in Egypt,
Lebanon and Syria.
#18
Earth Moon Mechanics
www.space.com/scienceastronomy/moon_mechanics_0303018.html
Moon Effects on Earth Part 1. <-- Origins
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEX9JlvWg0A&feature=related
Moon Effects on Earth part 2. <-- Talks of the bulge it used to pull on the Earth
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFZ-gDyX_Pw&NR=1
Moon Effects on Earth part 3.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=djC_SwUY7QU&feature=related
Tectonic Plates
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDqskltCixA
Moons Obliquity ... Our Climate
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWXGvlDSYFA
USGS Earthquake Stats
neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html
05/05/2009 (6:18 pm)
Last post for a while... Things like this make me think the effect of the solar eclipse on plate tectonics could be real... putting them here for place holdersQuote:
Gravity is said to be the weakest of all the fundamental forces. But one aspect of it is very consequential: Gravity never goes away. It weakens with distance, but it is always at work. This fact is the primary driver of tides. The side of Earth nearest the Moon always gets tugged more than the other side, by about 6 percent
...
The Moon does not just go around the Earth. In reality, the two objects orbit about a common gravitational midpoint, called a barycenter. The mass of each object and the distance between them dictates that this barycenter is inside Earth, about three-fourths of the way out from the center.
...
Here's the kicker: On the side of Earth opposite the Moon, the force of the Moon's gravity is less than at the center of the Earth, because of the greater distance. It can actually be thought of as a negative force, in essence, pulling water away from the Moon and away from Earth's surface -- a second high tide.
Our planet rotates under these constantly shifting tides, which is why high and low tides are always moving about, rolling in and rolling out as far as observers on the shore are concerned.
The Sun, too, has a tidal effect on Earth, but because of its great distance it is responsible for only about one-third of the range in tides. When the Earth, Moon and Sun are aligned (at full or new Moon), tides can be unusually dramatic, on both the high and low ends. When the Moon is at a 90-degree angle to the Sun in our sky (at first quarter or last quarter) tides tend to be mellower.
....
Earlier, we said tides are at the root of alterations in the entire Earth-Moon orbital system. Here's how: Earth spins once a day, while the Moon goes around the planet at a more plodding pace, once a month. So the planet is always trying to drag tides along, and it succeeds a bit.
The high-tide bulges are pulled just ahead of an imaginary line connecting the centers of Earth and the Moon. It might seem rather amazing, but a terrestrial bulge of water has enough mass to tug at the Moon from yet another angle. The effect is to constantly prod the Moon into a higher orbit, which explains why it is moving away from us.
The Moon, meanwhile, is yanking back on the tidal bulges. So the water, down where it meets the ocean floor, rubs against Earth. This slows the planet down, explaining why there are 24 hours in a day instead of the mere 18 of a billion years ago.
Finally, we need to bring up another factor that helped all these opposing dynamics reach an agreement of sorts:
More than just water is pulled up by tides. Earth's solid self actually stretches, too. And Earth's gravity lifts tides on the Moon, raising relatively small bulges in the seemingly solid satellite.
Earth Moon Mechanics
www.space.com/scienceastronomy/moon_mechanics_0303018.html
Moon Effects on Earth Part 1. <-- Origins
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEX9JlvWg0A&feature=related
Moon Effects on Earth part 2. <-- Talks of the bulge it used to pull on the Earth
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFZ-gDyX_Pw&NR=1
Moon Effects on Earth part 3.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=djC_SwUY7QU&feature=related
Tectonic Plates
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDqskltCixA
Moons Obliquity ... Our Climate
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWXGvlDSYFA
USGS Earthquake Stats
neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html
#19
Just posting some odd things I see as I dig around looking for total solar eclipses around the same region. Here is one in October 1995. Very close to the July 22 2009 Eclipse path.
Oddly enough China gets the quake when the eclipse is full near Japan. And it gets the quake 6 hours before the eclipse.
If you watch this video... you see the bulge in the earth pulling the moon... ahead of it. Moon Effects on Earth part 2. <-- Talks of the bulge the earth had that pulled on the moon when it was first formed. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFZ-gDyX_Pw&NR=1
Perhaps I'm wrong, about the delayed affect. Maybe the pull is ahead of the moon, and so is the quake?
October 23-24th 1995
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1995Oct24T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1995.php
Who knows maybe I'm wrong about the whole thing. I really wish I could find a video link to the original story I saw on the Solar Eclipse Earthquake theory.
05/05/2009 (9:48 pm)
Just posting some odd things I see as I dig around looking for total solar eclipses around the same region. Here is one in October 1995. Very close to the July 22 2009 Eclipse path.
Oddly enough China gets the quake when the eclipse is full near Japan. And it gets the quake 6 hours before the eclipse.
If you watch this video... you see the bulge in the earth pulling the moon... ahead of it. Moon Effects on Earth part 2. <-- Talks of the bulge the earth had that pulled on the moon when it was first formed. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFZ-gDyX_Pw&NR=1
Perhaps I'm wrong, about the delayed affect. Maybe the pull is ahead of the moon, and so is the quake?
October 23-24th 1995
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1995Oct24T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1995.php
Quote:
OCT 23 22 46 50.8 26.003 N 102.227 E 10 G 5.8 6.4 1.0 460
SICHUAN, CHINA. Mw 6.2 (GS), 6.2 (HRV). Me 6.5 (GS). Ms
6.1 (BRK). Mo=1.9*10**18 Nm (GS). Mo=2.2*10**18 Nm
(HRV). At least 81 people killed, 800 injured and
more than 200 houses damaged or destroyed in the Wuding
area. Felt strongly at Chuxiong, Dongchuan, Kunming,
Qujing, Zhaotong and many other parts of northern
Yunnan. Also felt in southwestern Sichuan, China and
in northern Vietnam.
Who knows maybe I'm wrong about the whole thing. I really wish I could find a video link to the original story I saw on the Solar Eclipse Earthquake theory.
#20
Apparent Miss? Or quake before eclipse?
March 17th-18th 1988
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1988Mar18T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1988.php
I'm sticking with my guns... I think there is something to this. A few hours before or after the total solar eclipse we have a quake in this region.
See above links for the quakes I've found on total solar eclipses over the past 10 years in and around the Eurasian tectonic plate. This quake occurs a few hours before the total solar eclipse takes place.
I think Caltech needs to take a smaller sample. Focus only on Total Solar Eclipses, focus on the region in question and look at quakes over a shorter period rather than 110 years all over the world. Also look a few hours before and after the total solar eclipse. I found 4 quakes that match in a 10 year period. I think you will see a correlation. At least... I think there is a correlation for total solar eclipses that cross the Eurasian tectonic plate.
Paper on the idea from Taiwan
Take look at this study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Forum with useful links here.
05/05/2009 (9:49 pm)
Same goes here with this apparent miss in the same region.Apparent Miss? Or quake before eclipse?
March 17th-18th 1988
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1988Mar18T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1988.php
I'm sticking with my guns... I think there is something to this. A few hours before or after the total solar eclipse we have a quake in this region.
Quote:
MAR 17 20 34 29.2 35.633 N 139.619 E 103 5.4 1.1 325 NEAR SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. Mo=3.1*10**17 Nm
(HRV). Ten people injured in the Tokyo area. Slight damage (IV JMA) at Chiba, Kawaguchi-ko, Kumagaya, Tateyama and Utsunomiya. Felt (III JMA) in the Onahama-Choshi-Ajiro-Kofu area and on Oshima and Miyake-jima. Felt (I JMA) from Hikone to Miyako and on Hachijo-jima.
See above links for the quakes I've found on total solar eclipses over the past 10 years in and around the Eurasian tectonic plate. This quake occurs a few hours before the total solar eclipse takes place.
I think Caltech needs to take a smaller sample. Focus only on Total Solar Eclipses, focus on the region in question and look at quakes over a shorter period rather than 110 years all over the world. Also look a few hours before and after the total solar eclipse. I found 4 quakes that match in a 10 year period. I think you will see a correlation. At least... I think there is a correlation for total solar eclipses that cross the Eurasian tectonic plate.
Paper on the idea from Taiwan
Take look at this study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms � 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Forum with useful links here.
Torque Owner Mike Rowley
Mike Rowley
outside physics engine
math
mesh morph for realistic reacting water
???
is more than I could think of tackling. It would be interesting to see this in action tho.