Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#102
Wow! That's some good stuff. You can make a link with the following url tags.
www.timesnow.tv/Mumbai-high-tide-No-cause-for-panic/videoshow/4322979.cms
I have not found an exact listing of all tsunami's. But tsunami's are not caused by the tides. They are caused by earthquakes. Again, I think India and China are safe from the big 6+ earthquakes. Its Japan that I am worried about.
Since the page wraped I'll do a recap.
I think the tides are higher than normal, because the moon is still close to perigee. What is interesting is we had a quake yesterday west of the latest one. Its like a delayed effect after the eclipse. The big quakes are moving eastward each day. Its almost as if each day it the earthquake gets bigger as it moves toward Japan. Its following the path of the smaller quakes the days before, and the path of the total solar eclipse a couple of days ago.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
This "march of quakes" is new, but it makes sense to me as the moon is moving 12 degrees eastward each day. The quakes are following the moon. The moon is moving 12 degrees eastward of the sun's position each day. We have quakes moving eastward (near the same time 03:00) each day too. I think this will continue through China and into Japan over the next few days.
07/24/2009 (8:40 am)
@Rakesh,Wow! That's some good stuff. You can make a link with the following url tags.
[url]http://www.timesnow.tv/Mumbai-high-tide-No-cause-for-panic/videoshow/4322979.cms[/url]
www.timesnow.tv/Mumbai-high-tide-No-cause-for-panic/videoshow/4322979.cms
I have not found an exact listing of all tsunami's. But tsunami's are not caused by the tides. They are caused by earthquakes. Again, I think India and China are safe from the big 6+ earthquakes. Its Japan that I am worried about.
Since the page wraped I'll do a recap.
I think the tides are higher than normal, because the moon is still close to perigee. What is interesting is we had a quake yesterday west of the latest one. Its like a delayed effect after the eclipse. The big quakes are moving eastward each day. Its almost as if each day it the earthquake gets bigger as it moves toward Japan. Its following the path of the smaller quakes the days before, and the path of the total solar eclipse a couple of days ago.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
This "march of quakes" is new, but it makes sense to me as the moon is moving 12 degrees eastward each day. The quakes are following the moon. The moon is moving 12 degrees eastward of the sun's position each day. We have quakes moving eastward (near the same time 03:00) each day too. I think this will continue through China and into Japan over the next few days.
#103
ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
Thanks so much, Jason!!
I just discovered nine major earthquakes from July 19 to July 24 that are NOT reported on the USGS maps. They are:
Jul 19 - 7.3 South Indian Ocean
Jul 20 - 6.7 near Johannesburg, South Africa
Jul 22 - 6.6 Gulf of Oman
Jul 22 - 6.4 Gulf of Oman
Jul 22 - 6.7 Owen Fracture Zone Region (SE of Oman quakes)
Jul 24 - 7.1 near Bhutan
Jul 24 - 6.8 near Nepal
Jul 24 - 7.0 near Nepal
Jul 24 - 6.0 Mallnitz, Austria
Without doing further research, I believe all but three of these earthquakes fall within the territory where the solar eclipse of July 21/22 was visible.
07/24/2009 (10:05 am)
Well just in case the USGS does not update on time, here're 2 other sites you can get the data about latest earthquakes and it seems there're some big ones for 24th july.ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
Thanks so much, Jason!!
I just discovered nine major earthquakes from July 19 to July 24 that are NOT reported on the USGS maps. They are:
Jul 19 - 7.3 South Indian Ocean
Jul 20 - 6.7 near Johannesburg, South Africa
Jul 22 - 6.6 Gulf of Oman
Jul 22 - 6.4 Gulf of Oman
Jul 22 - 6.7 Owen Fracture Zone Region (SE of Oman quakes)
Jul 24 - 7.1 near Bhutan
Jul 24 - 6.8 near Nepal
Jul 24 - 7.0 near Nepal
Jul 24 - 6.0 Mallnitz, Austria
Without doing further research, I believe all but three of these earthquakes fall within the territory where the solar eclipse of July 21/22 was visible.
#104
Your above inputs are not valid..All above mentioned were high magnitude, which could have been caused major damages to the earth property.
Eighter those would have been created a Tsunami (or)caused a damages to the property, if those really happend.
USGS is only one reputed site, which can given true updates about the earthquakes..
They are the leader of world for Geological survey.
Regds
rakesh
07/24/2009 (10:23 am)
Bill,Your above inputs are not valid..All above mentioned were high magnitude, which could have been caused major damages to the earth property.
Eighter those would have been created a Tsunami (or)caused a damages to the property, if those really happend.
USGS is only one reputed site, which can given true updates about the earthquakes..
They are the leader of world for Geological survey.
Regds
rakesh
#105
07/24/2009 (10:43 am)
Believe what you wish, Rakesh. I took the information directly from the Bulgarian National Seismological Data Center It is a common fact that the USGS does not report all earthquakes and even lowers their magnitudes. Wake up!
#106
Bulgarian: ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
USGS: earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
Japan: www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/quake_local_index.html
What we have is a simple disagreement between agencies on the scale of recent earthquakes. This is normal as the size of the quake is still being investigated by the USGS for the first 8 days. I think the safest thing to do is we should stick with the agency that reports the lowest value, until we know for sure. I find it odd, as Bill said, the USGS does not even list some of these quakes. I think we won't really know for sure until these agencies have had time to reach an agreement, and that will probably be sometime next week.
07/24/2009 (12:22 pm)
You can see the data Bill is referring to here: Bulgarian: ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
USGS: earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
Japan: www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/quake_local_index.html
What we have is a simple disagreement between agencies on the scale of recent earthquakes. This is normal as the size of the quake is still being investigated by the USGS for the first 8 days. I think the safest thing to do is we should stick with the agency that reports the lowest value, until we know for sure. I find it odd, as Bill said, the USGS does not even list some of these quakes. I think we won't really know for sure until these agencies have had time to reach an agreement, and that will probably be sometime next week.
#107
07/24/2009 (12:45 pm)
Fair enough, Britton, but I think the Bulgarian site, not the USGS, will prove your theory correct since it ACKNOWLEDGES more earthquakes and LARGER earthquakes. Your theory makes so much sense to me, I want to see it proven correct. So, good luck to you!
#108
Furthermore, speaking of just the USA map, only having three sizes of boxes, i.e., 1, 3 and 5, really sacrifices a true visual picture of what is occurring. For example, a 2.9 earthquake would receive a "1" box, a 4.9 earthquake would receive a "3" box, and a magnitude 6, 7, 8 or above would receive a "5" box. Again, I expect much, much better from a scientific site.
If it appears that I am building a case for the Bulgarian site having more credibility, I plead "guilty!"
07/24/2009 (2:29 pm)
Besides not reporting earthquakes, I am less inclined to believe the magnitudes reported by the USGS due to the manner in which it reports. That is, if an earthquake is more than one hour old, it changes to "last day" and if an earthquake is more than 24 hours old, it changes to "last week". I believe this is VERY misleading when one cannot differentiate between an earthquake that occurred 25 hours ago from one that occurred 7 days ago. I expect much better from a scientific site.Furthermore, speaking of just the USA map, only having three sizes of boxes, i.e., 1, 3 and 5, really sacrifices a true visual picture of what is occurring. For example, a 2.9 earthquake would receive a "1" box, a 4.9 earthquake would receive a "3" box, and a magnitude 6, 7, 8 or above would receive a "5" box. Again, I expect much, much better from a scientific site.
If it appears that I am building a case for the Bulgarian site having more credibility, I plead "guilty!"
#109
We have a 6.2 in PAPUA NEW GUINEA
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmae.php
Quakes are moving eastward and getting bigger. This round skipped over Japan and went south, but still along eclipse path. This is a total guess, but we may now cycle back west again for the third and possibly final wave of larger earthquakes.
According to Jim Berkland's theory syzygy occurs when the Sun, Moon and Earth are in a straight line. This is when he predicts earthquakes based off of the tidal forces. To him a lunar eclipse is also important.
The Lunar Eclipse of July 7, 2009 was followed by a solar eclipse on July 22, 2009 and will be followed by another lunar eclipse on August 6, 2009. So this one gets three syzygy(s) in a row.
What this means to me is that the orbital path of the moon is keeping a perfect axis with the sun. That means the tidal forces will be magnified with this eclipse. That's why I picked this one for my first earthquake prediction (that and it passed over the most earthquake prone region in the world)
Notice the side view, the moon is in a straight line with the sun as it orbits (the y axis never changes for 30 days, or it does but it stays within bounds so that its at the same point on the y axis at the next critical moment) I believe this is why we are having 5 meter tides in India.
I figured the odds would be the highest in my favor with this 2009 total solar eclipse, if there was anything to the eclipse quake theory. I figured it would be the highest odds in over a decade, and the past two decades showed a great deal of correlation to quakes the week after the eclipse in this region.
I also know that these triple play eclipses will occur frequently for the next 11 years or so. I figure I can make a name for myself if I'm right, and I'm hoping that this will lead to interest in me putting a team together and developing the simulator. But I honestly think that even if I'm 100% correct the odds of me actually getting funding are slim to none. This one will probably be chalked up to pure chance.
The flip side is, if we don't get a biggie then the effect of the eclipse is probably limited.
I just didn't expect so much attention before I was deemed to be correct.
07/24/2009 (7:28 pm)
@Bill, obviously I am biased, and want to prove my theory. I have to be even more cautious that my bias does not influence my judgment.We have a 6.2 in PAPUA NEW GUINEA
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmae.php
Quakes are moving eastward and getting bigger. This round skipped over Japan and went south, but still along eclipse path. This is a total guess, but we may now cycle back west again for the third and possibly final wave of larger earthquakes.
According to Jim Berkland's theory syzygy occurs when the Sun, Moon and Earth are in a straight line. This is when he predicts earthquakes based off of the tidal forces. To him a lunar eclipse is also important.
The Lunar Eclipse of July 7, 2009 was followed by a solar eclipse on July 22, 2009 and will be followed by another lunar eclipse on August 6, 2009. So this one gets three syzygy(s) in a row.
What this means to me is that the orbital path of the moon is keeping a perfect axis with the sun. That means the tidal forces will be magnified with this eclipse. That's why I picked this one for my first earthquake prediction (that and it passed over the most earthquake prone region in the world)
Notice the side view, the moon is in a straight line with the sun as it orbits (the y axis never changes for 30 days, or it does but it stays within bounds so that its at the same point on the y axis at the next critical moment) I believe this is why we are having 5 meter tides in India.
I figured the odds would be the highest in my favor with this 2009 total solar eclipse, if there was anything to the eclipse quake theory. I figured it would be the highest odds in over a decade, and the past two decades showed a great deal of correlation to quakes the week after the eclipse in this region.
I also know that these triple play eclipses will occur frequently for the next 11 years or so. I figure I can make a name for myself if I'm right, and I'm hoping that this will lead to interest in me putting a team together and developing the simulator. But I honestly think that even if I'm 100% correct the odds of me actually getting funding are slim to none. This one will probably be chalked up to pure chance.
The flip side is, if we don't get a biggie then the effect of the eclipse is probably limited.
I just didn't expect so much attention before I was deemed to be correct.
#110
Yes, I see the 6.2, which is given a much higher magnitude by BNSDC. BNSDC is also reporting a 7.2 in the North Pacific Ocean at the exact same time, which the USGS is not reporting.
Anyway, I'm going to back off now. I just wanted to throw in my two cents about the USGS so that it might help you prove your theory if you didn't rely entirely on their data and/or lack of.
Bill
07/24/2009 (8:02 pm)
Britton,Yes, I see the 6.2, which is given a much higher magnitude by BNSDC. BNSDC is also reporting a 7.2 in the North Pacific Ocean at the exact same time, which the USGS is not reporting.
Anyway, I'm going to back off now. I just wanted to throw in my two cents about the USGS so that it might help you prove your theory if you didn't rely entirely on their data and/or lack of.
Bill
#111
The theory he is using (if I'm not mistaken) is based off of the theory of relativity and our motion through the galaxy, not just the Newtonian method of calculating gravity. He overlays the gravitational pull model with the relative model on the earth to make his calculations. So on his image model you see the black lines of the galaxy intersect the red lines of the sun and moon's gravitational pull. That is where he predicts his quakes.
My brain is so locked 17th century Newtonian physics, I don't really get the whole of it. I'm not really sure what to think of it, but it looks pretty cool. He thinks I'll get my quake on the 29th. If he can send me a PNG of JPG image and he agrees I'll post his data here.
View Stats
07/24/2009 (8:43 pm)
Ed oberg has been sending me images via email he has been computing based off of the earth's location to the center of the galaxy in addition to the sun and moon's gravitational pull. The theory he is using (if I'm not mistaken) is based off of the theory of relativity and our motion through the galaxy, not just the Newtonian method of calculating gravity. He overlays the gravitational pull model with the relative model on the earth to make his calculations. So on his image model you see the black lines of the galaxy intersect the red lines of the sun and moon's gravitational pull. That is where he predicts his quakes.
My brain is so locked 17th century Newtonian physics, I don't really get the whole of it. I'm not really sure what to think of it, but it looks pretty cool. He thinks I'll get my quake on the 29th. If he can send me a PNG of JPG image and he agrees I'll post his data here.
#112
If we don't see a significant increase with the triple syzygy then in my mind, we have disproved the theory. I don't see how we could have not have an increase under the best possible circumstances for the eclipse quake theory.
In the mean time we had 4.0+ magnitude quakes last week and 5-6.0 magnitudes this week.
07/25/2009 (8:36 am)
Again, to eliminate the possibility of pure chance I want to take the yearly average number of quakes above 4.5 and compare this to the numbers before and after the eclipse. Then compare the numbers for July 7th through August 6th.If we don't see a significant increase with the triple syzygy then in my mind, we have disproved the theory. I don't see how we could have not have an increase under the best possible circumstances for the eclipse quake theory.
In the mean time we had 4.0+ magnitude quakes last week and 5-6.0 magnitudes this week.
#113
Are you going to drop the theory???
Or you still forsee any possiblity of Big quake??
Regds
Rakesh.
07/25/2009 (8:46 am)
Britton, Are you going to drop the theory???
Or you still forsee any possiblity of Big quake??
Regds
Rakesh.
#114
What we are seeing this week does seem to indicate a big after effect from the eclipse. I think we should see if this week July 22nd - 30th is special even if we don't get a quake in the exact spot I predicted.
07/25/2009 (9:27 am)
@Rakesh, I expect a big on in Japan by July 30th. I see an increase in quake activity all this week 4 days after the eclipse. On the 29th 30th we will have the moon at a 90 degree angle to the Sun. I expect the quake by the end of July.What we are seeing this week does seem to indicate a big after effect from the eclipse. I think we should see if this week July 22nd - 30th is special even if we don't get a quake in the exact spot I predicted.
#115
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
Indonesia 5.2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnbm.php
Got a 5.1 in Taiwan.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnak.php
More Indonesia 5.2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmbe.php
How can this be a coincidence that all these 5+ quakes are in the same region at the same time? The only one that does not belong is the one in Argentina.
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.2 2009/07/26 15:27:04 11.862 94.351 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/07/26 13:29:14 10.666 94.296 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/07/26 06:10:58 23.434 121.439 6.1 TAIWAN
MAP 5.4 2009/07/26 06:06:46 -0.356 132.273 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2009/07/26 05:03:16 -20.123 169.833 236.7 VANUATU
MAP 5.6 2009/07/25 19:03:21 -29.875 -177.778 31.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.2 2009/07/25 18:41:58 1.821 96.982 43.3 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2009/07/25 11:32:24 44.906 147.984 113.2 KURIL ISLANDS
MAP 5.1 2009/07/25 04:17:11 -23.953 -66.482 181.6 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
MAP 6.0 2009/07/25 01:42:24 -6.478 154.930 35.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
07/26/2009 (9:50 am)
More quakes as we approach a 90 degree angle with the sun. We have more than the average for today. All these quakes in the same region of the world. Coincidence? I think not.earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
Indonesia 5.2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnbm.php
Got a 5.1 in Taiwan.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnak.php
More Indonesia 5.2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmbe.php
How can this be a coincidence that all these 5+ quakes are in the same region at the same time? The only one that does not belong is the one in Argentina.
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.2 2009/07/26 15:27:04 11.862 94.351 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/07/26 13:29:14 10.666 94.296 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/07/26 06:10:58 23.434 121.439 6.1 TAIWAN
MAP 5.4 2009/07/26 06:06:46 -0.356 132.273 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2009/07/26 05:03:16 -20.123 169.833 236.7 VANUATU
MAP 5.6 2009/07/25 19:03:21 -29.875 -177.778 31.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.2 2009/07/25 18:41:58 1.821 96.982 43.3 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2009/07/25 11:32:24 44.906 147.984 113.2 KURIL ISLANDS
MAP 5.1 2009/07/25 04:17:11 -23.953 -66.482 181.6 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
MAP 6.0 2009/07/25 01:42:24 -6.478 154.930 35.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
#116
Yes, there are continious quakes are happening in the East side..those are more than 5+quakes.
Eventhough there is no much bigger quake,i beleive there is relation to your theory(between Eclipse and Tides and Quakes)
I hope there will be some thing soon...may be indonasia region...also it may be in a week/month/year..
Since i seen your blog,its very difficult to me to leave your site.. I making frequent visits to your site,it realy distrubing my activities.
regds
Rakesh.
07/26/2009 (10:50 am)
Britton, Yes, there are continious quakes are happening in the East side..those are more than 5+quakes.
Eventhough there is no much bigger quake,i beleive there is relation to your theory(between Eclipse and Tides and Quakes)
I hope there will be some thing soon...may be indonasia region...also it may be in a week/month/year..
Since i seen your blog,its very difficult to me to leave your site.. I making frequent visits to your site,it realy distrubing my activities.
regds
Rakesh.
#117
Looks like something is going to happen soon....
07/26/2009 (11:08 am)
Yes i was about to say that there's an unusually high number of earthquakes in the Andaman island regions as well.Looks like something is going to happen soon....
#118
Sadly that's what we may get. We have a 6.2 (now 5.8) in Indonesia now.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/pt09207002.php
Magnitude 6.2 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
* Sunday, July 26, 2009 at 23:10:26 UTC
* Monday, July 27, 2009 at 06:10:26 AM at epicenter
Location 4.910°S, 102.800°E
Depth 66 km (41.0 miles) set by location program
Region SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Hmm... just got downgraded to a 5.8. Anyway am I the only one that thinks all this quake activity since the eclipse is abnormal?
Another just now 6.2 in Vanuatu Indonesia
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnb9.php
Another 6.2 downgraded to 5.7 in SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jncb.php
So where are the sun and moon right now? The sun is straight up, the moon is less than 90 degrees to the east, estimating between 48 and 60 degrees east of the sun.
You don't have to be a genius to predict where the quakes will be in the next few days. They will be near the same spots (just bigger) where the quakes were a few days ago.
I'd think that the 4.7 in Japan on July 22nd 2009 (that I predicted) will be a bigger quake in a few days. Same with the 5.1 I predicted in Taiwan. These are the only significant quakes that are in my time window I can claim. Oh and this one 4.6 below. These match the three circles I drew back in January.
Quakes I accurately predicted with this theory several months in advance
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jja2.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnak.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnaf.php
There is more than enough supporting evidence that these quakes were predicted months in advance. I expect bigger ones in the very near future. But, for my first attempt with this theory, I have a significant quake in every circle I drew back in January. I did extend the window back in May / June. But I never changed the locations. August 1st I'll draw all the quakes predicted between July 22nd - July 30th with the eclipse quake theory. I got a significant quake in each circle... I'm 3 for 3. As for the next part (the magnitude was wrong), like I said, bigger quakes near the same spot in a few days.
What are odds that this is pure chance? I'd like to know.
07/26/2009 (4:12 pm)
Sadly, unless its big it won't get attention. Even if the theory is 100% accurate magnitude 5 and below doesn't really get attention. We need a 7.0 + monster somewhere. That is the only level we can get a tsunami with. A 7.0 and a tsunami is really the only thing that will raise enough awareness to pay attention to total solar eclipses.Sadly that's what we may get. We have a 6.2 (now 5.8) in Indonesia now.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/pt09207002.php
Magnitude 6.2 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
* Sunday, July 26, 2009 at 23:10:26 UTC
* Monday, July 27, 2009 at 06:10:26 AM at epicenter
Location 4.910°S, 102.800°E
Depth 66 km (41.0 miles) set by location program
Region SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Hmm... just got downgraded to a 5.8. Anyway am I the only one that thinks all this quake activity since the eclipse is abnormal?
Another just now 6.2 in Vanuatu Indonesia
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnb9.php
Another 6.2 downgraded to 5.7 in SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jncb.php
So where are the sun and moon right now? The sun is straight up, the moon is less than 90 degrees to the east, estimating between 48 and 60 degrees east of the sun.
You don't have to be a genius to predict where the quakes will be in the next few days. They will be near the same spots (just bigger) where the quakes were a few days ago.
I'd think that the 4.7 in Japan on July 22nd 2009 (that I predicted) will be a bigger quake in a few days. Same with the 5.1 I predicted in Taiwan. These are the only significant quakes that are in my time window I can claim. Oh and this one 4.6 below. These match the three circles I drew back in January.
Quakes I accurately predicted with this theory several months in advance
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jja2.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnak.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnaf.php
There is more than enough supporting evidence that these quakes were predicted months in advance. I expect bigger ones in the very near future. But, for my first attempt with this theory, I have a significant quake in every circle I drew back in January. I did extend the window back in May / June. But I never changed the locations. August 1st I'll draw all the quakes predicted between July 22nd - July 30th with the eclipse quake theory. I got a significant quake in each circle... I'm 3 for 3. As for the next part (the magnitude was wrong), like I said, bigger quakes near the same spot in a few days.
What are odds that this is pure chance? I'd like to know.
#119
I'm now going to step down from the quake podium and quote Ed Oberg. For more info see www.iasoberg.com
He and I think that the 29th is a good day for a larger quake in Japan. Images below.
Global Iasoberg
Japan Highlight
What does this mean exactly? Well, I'm not really sure. Visit www.iasoberg.com for more information. I think the bad news is when the black lines get closer to the red lines. Apparently they get close enough at 10:00 UT to have an effect in Japan.
07/27/2009 (3:03 pm)
So, here we go into the final days of my prediction. I just downloaded and image of Asia at the top it says 67 earthquakes on this map. The one posted here two days ago shows 37. That means we had 30 earthquakes in two days. Not all were significant, but that is a great deal of earthquakes, in just two days. The quakes today do seem to be bit smaller 5.1 for the most part instead of 5.7 like we saw yesterday.I'm now going to step down from the quake podium and quote Ed Oberg. For more info see www.iasoberg.com
Quote:
The Iasoberg Model which locates the Allais Effect on the Earth's surface is based on the concept that, at the barycenter of the Earth Moon System the graviational potentials of the galaxy and sun are distorted and extend to the surface of the Earth. He is currently attempting to corrlelate the location and geometry of the Iasoberg Model with severe weather events in the continental US. The Allais Effect may also be a triggering mechanism for seismic activity as well as influencing other physical terrestrial phenomena. He has superimposed the output of his model (Red Solar Iasbergs/Black Galactic Iasobergs refer to Iasoberg Model www.iasoberg.com) on the Filipino Tectonic Plate and the terrestial Papua New Guinea gravitational anomaly for specific instances of time.
He has not predicted any quakes but provided the time in UT and location of the intersection of his model with the Filipino Tectionic Plate and PNG anomaly for the day and following days of the eclipse and the 29th of July.
He and I think that the 29th is a good day for a larger quake in Japan. Images below.
Global Iasoberg
Japan Highlight
What does this mean exactly? Well, I'm not really sure. Visit www.iasoberg.com for more information. I think the bad news is when the black lines get closer to the red lines. Apparently they get close enough at 10:00 UT to have an effect in Japan.
#120
As Myanmar, known as Burma, also is sitting on four tectonic plates, Burma Plate, India Plate, Sunda(SU)Plate and Eurasia(EU) Plates and also having recent series of earthquakes(may be small ones) in Andaman Sea, I am worried about your prediction may trigger big one at the junction of those 4 plates as shown in picture below.
(Please correct the codes if pictures doesn't show below :P )
At the border of Burma Plate and Sunda Plate already had 25 medium earthquakes from 26th July to 28th July and scales comes higher and higher !
What do you think about this situation?
I am already agree with your prediction with every evidences showing up recently.
07/28/2009 (3:54 am)
Hi Mr. Britton,As Myanmar, known as Burma, also is sitting on four tectonic plates, Burma Plate, India Plate, Sunda(SU)Plate and Eurasia(EU) Plates and also having recent series of earthquakes(may be small ones) in Andaman Sea, I am worried about your prediction may trigger big one at the junction of those 4 plates as shown in picture below.
(Please correct the codes if pictures doesn't show below :P )
At the border of Burma Plate and Sunda Plate already had 25 medium earthquakes from 26th July to 28th July and scales comes higher and higher !
What do you think about this situation?
I am already agree with your prediction with every evidences showing up recently.
Rakesh
http://www.timesnow.tv/Mumbai-high-tide-No-cause-for-panic/videoshow/4322979.cms
Please go to the above link. This is the biggest tide of Mumbai,since last 100 years.
Do you have a any data, which shows occurances of Tsunami for the last 2 centuries??
Regs
Rakesh