Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#82
The only (minor) quakes today were near Kyushu; more information at http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/6/20090722100329491-220957.html
07/21/2009 (7:36 pm)
Well--That was anticlimactic. But a great way to get blog hits, hey? Fantastic.The only (minor) quakes today were near Kyushu; more information at http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/6/20090722100329491-220957.html
#83
These quakes with a 2.9 do not count we are talking about 1.3 million quakes between 2 and 2.9 a year. Quakes less than 4 are way too common and can easily be a coincidence. I'd need at least a 4.5 before I'd give the theory any credibility.
Magnitude - Average Annually
8 and higher - 1
7-7.9 - 17
6 - 6.9 - 134
5-5.9 - 1319
4-4.9 - 13,000
3-3.9 - 130,000
2-2.9 - 1,300,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Look at the 1997 - 2007 eclipse data on the site here. We still have until July 30th before the prediction window is over. The Tidal forces will still be larger than normal until then. The 6.9 quakes in 2004 and 2007 occurred 8 days after the eclipse. I'm assuming the tidal forces will still be larger than normal tomorrow too. If it takes time to "limber up" the plates, so to speak, it can have a delayed effect.
But yes, I agree. So far it does not look good for the Eclipse Quake theory. After 8 days I'd say there is no relationship between the eclipse and a quake. Since this thing has gone global (which was not my intent) there is a good chance we will get a quake July 31st, just to cement my reputation as a geological fool.
I would not be surprised if my prediction alone provided protection for the Japanese. I would not put it past fate to temporarily suspend the natural laws of the universe just to prove me wrong. Sometimes it feels that way.
07/21/2009 (8:56 pm)
@Ts, well I'm glad the Japanese are okay. Thanks for the links, by the way. This information is great!These quakes with a 2.9 do not count we are talking about 1.3 million quakes between 2 and 2.9 a year. Quakes less than 4 are way too common and can easily be a coincidence. I'd need at least a 4.5 before I'd give the theory any credibility.
Magnitude - Average Annually
8 and higher - 1
7-7.9 - 17
6 - 6.9 - 134
5-5.9 - 1319
4-4.9 - 13,000
3-3.9 - 130,000
2-2.9 - 1,300,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Look at the 1997 - 2007 eclipse data on the site here. We still have until July 30th before the prediction window is over. The Tidal forces will still be larger than normal until then. The 6.9 quakes in 2004 and 2007 occurred 8 days after the eclipse. I'm assuming the tidal forces will still be larger than normal tomorrow too. If it takes time to "limber up" the plates, so to speak, it can have a delayed effect.
But yes, I agree. So far it does not look good for the Eclipse Quake theory. After 8 days I'd say there is no relationship between the eclipse and a quake. Since this thing has gone global (which was not my intent) there is a good chance we will get a quake July 31st, just to cement my reputation as a geological fool.
I would not be surprised if my prediction alone provided protection for the Japanese. I would not put it past fate to temporarily suspend the natural laws of the universe just to prove me wrong. Sometimes it feels that way.
#84
The biggest question I've always had with the eclipse quake theory, is how could the effect be delayed? How can a quake occur a few days after the eclipse and still be related to the event?
The answer is that the moon completes one orbit around earth every 29.5 days. The orbital path is set. So the day before and a few days after the same gravitational effects and tidal forces are in play, just in a slightly lesser amount, and in a slightly different place. So if the eclipse does not trigger the quake, the same rules apply the next day but with just few percentage less force. Assuming the moon moves more or less in a basic circle of 360 degrees we can calculate the angle of difference between the sun and the moon. The moon makes a complete orbit of the earth every 29.5 days so 360/29.5 = 12.2 degrees per day.
Its possible that if the gravitational and tidal forces don't succeed the first couple of days it has another chance over the next several days. It could be that the effect is repeated over several days, and this would explain why we have quakes right before or within a few days after the eclipse.
07/21/2009 (9:00 pm)
Repeat form page 3...The biggest question I've always had with the eclipse quake theory, is how could the effect be delayed? How can a quake occur a few days after the eclipse and still be related to the event?
The answer is that the moon completes one orbit around earth every 29.5 days. The orbital path is set. So the day before and a few days after the same gravitational effects and tidal forces are in play, just in a slightly lesser amount, and in a slightly different place. So if the eclipse does not trigger the quake, the same rules apply the next day but with just few percentage less force. Assuming the moon moves more or less in a basic circle of 360 degrees we can calculate the angle of difference between the sun and the moon. The moon makes a complete orbit of the earth every 29.5 days so 360/29.5 = 12.2 degrees per day.
-12 Degrees day before 0 Degrees eclipse day +12 Degrees 1 day after +24 Degrees 2 days after +36 Degrees 3 day after +48 Degrees 4 days after +60 Degrees 5 days after +72 Degrees 6 days after +84 Degrees 7 days after +96 Degrees 8 days after
Its possible that if the gravitational and tidal forces don't succeed the first couple of days it has another chance over the next several days. It could be that the effect is repeated over several days, and this would explain why we have quakes right before or within a few days after the eclipse.
#85
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090722040754391-220356.html
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/quake_local_index.html
No sleep for me tonight.
07/22/2009 (12:00 am)
Looks like we have 4.2 magnitude quake at 4:07 PM July 22nd, Japanese standard time.www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090722040754391-220356.html
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/quake_local_index.html
No sleep for me tonight.
#86
I've been a frequent visitor to certain forums with quite a lot of useful information.
I have a possible theory to explain the failure of the eclipse/sun/moon magnetic disturbances, that's if no earthquakes results from it. Your theory of solar eclipse+moon+sun gravitational pull didn't seem to take into consideration the earth's magnetosphere which could possibly take the hits from external energy influences. The earth's magnetosphere protects us from the sun's occasional CMEs (coronal mass ejections) so I guess maybe, just maybe it would work to protect us from the gravitational influences of the moon/sun combined from an acceptable distance.
Here's a 'live' simulator of the earth's magnetosphere based in Japan.
www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html
www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/aeidx.jpg
If you pay attention to the data during the period of the recent solar eclipse, I believe there's some data there that could help with your predictions.
07/22/2009 (6:05 am)
Hey Britton. I've been following your predictions these few days. Only found out about it a few days ago. I've been a frequent visitor to certain forums with quite a lot of useful information.
I have a possible theory to explain the failure of the eclipse/sun/moon magnetic disturbances, that's if no earthquakes results from it. Your theory of solar eclipse+moon+sun gravitational pull didn't seem to take into consideration the earth's magnetosphere which could possibly take the hits from external energy influences. The earth's magnetosphere protects us from the sun's occasional CMEs (coronal mass ejections) so I guess maybe, just maybe it would work to protect us from the gravitational influences of the moon/sun combined from an acceptable distance.
Here's a 'live' simulator of the earth's magnetosphere based in Japan.
www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html
www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/aeidx.jpg
If you pay attention to the data during the period of the recent solar eclipse, I believe there's some data there that could help with your predictions.
#87
These are the best conditions for an eclipse quake scenario. Ether we get an big quake in the next few days or we don't. If we don't get a quake, in then next few days then the theory is for the quacks.
Problem is I was limited with data. with online data I could only go back until 1976 with significant USGS quakes world wide, and I did see a strong correlation with the handful of eclipses. We don't get a solar eclipse in Japan every year. The past 10 years did show an 85% correlation, but not on the same day. Looking at that data alone we still have an 8 day window.
07/22/2009 (6:17 am)
@Jason, those images are very interesting. But I don't see how the magnetosphere could influence the gravitational pull. The tides are far higher than normal. A 4.2 quake is not significant enough for a same day eclipse / quake. We still have a few days of significant tidal forces, after that in my mind the theory is bust.These are the best conditions for an eclipse quake scenario. Ether we get an big quake in the next few days or we don't. If we don't get a quake, in then next few days then the theory is for the quacks.
Problem is I was limited with data. with online data I could only go back until 1976 with significant USGS quakes world wide, and I did see a strong correlation with the handful of eclipses. We don't get a solar eclipse in Japan every year. The past 10 years did show an 85% correlation, but not on the same day. Looking at that data alone we still have an 8 day window.
#88
I just discovered this site two days ago and am quite fascinated with your theory. Since the eclipse is now over, and notwithstanding that your theory has a several-day window, I was wondering whether it could be that Earth does not receive the FULL combined gravitational pull of the Sun and the Moon because the Moon is blocking part of the Sun's pull during the eclipse?
Thanks,
Bill
07/22/2009 (7:34 am)
Hi Britton!I just discovered this site two days ago and am quite fascinated with your theory. Since the eclipse is now over, and notwithstanding that your theory has a several-day window, I was wondering whether it could be that Earth does not receive the FULL combined gravitational pull of the Sun and the Moon because the Moon is blocking part of the Sun's pull during the eclipse?
Thanks,
Bill
#89
07/22/2009 (8:37 am)
Congratulations, it looks like your theory is correct. A 7.8 Earthquake hit New Zealand today July 22 at 13:36 BST during a full Eclipse. They are in the direct path of the Eclipse.
#90
Where did you see that? I can't find it on the earthquake maps that I watch.
Thanks,
Bill
07/22/2009 (8:56 am)
Renee,Where did you see that? I can't find it on the earthquake maps that I watch.
Thanks,
Bill
#91
@Bill, The moon never impedes the suns pull. Gravity passes through solid objects. for example you actually weigh more on top of mount Everest than you do in Death Valley. Mount Everest Does not impede the rest of the earths gravitational pull, it adds to it. The earth does touch the sun. Yet gravity pulls enough on the earth from the Sun enough to create a solar tide about one third the size of the lunar tide. We see this tide added to the moons tide during an eclipse. This is proof positive of a combined effect.
07/22/2009 (9:22 am)
@Rene, I think you are confused about the July 15th Earthquake in New Zealand. They are releasing news articles about that today. I don't want to open the window to 8 days before the eclipse or 8 days after because that weakens the theory. I'm sticking to 8 days after the eclipse because I see more data to support that. So, yeah I'd love to count New Zealand, but I can't really. My theory requires the height of the eclipse to be in the same hemisphere and cross the same tectonic plate as the quake.@Bill, The moon never impedes the suns pull. Gravity passes through solid objects. for example you actually weigh more on top of mount Everest than you do in Death Valley. Mount Everest Does not impede the rest of the earths gravitational pull, it adds to it. The earth does touch the sun. Yet gravity pulls enough on the earth from the Sun enough to create a solar tide about one third the size of the lunar tide. We see this tide added to the moons tide during an eclipse. This is proof positive of a combined effect.
#92
Okay now we have the first shot at a possible correlation. Its a significant quake, but the lowest I'd consider related (a 4.7 magnitude) and its just about right where I thought it would be. The X is pretty close to the circle I drew near Japan back in January. I'd love to include the 6.3 last week in Taiwan because it would be next to my other circle, but I can't really. I'd have to open the window to 8 days before or after the eclipse. That opens the door from a 2% chance of predicting a significant quake at a given time to a 4% chance. Again, I'd like to eliminate the possibility of a coincidence.
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090722235526491-222351.html
The problem with this is I really need a 5 magnitude to put us in a such a small realm of possibility that this is not pure chance. In my mind a 4.7 is a "strong maybe." 4.0 - 4.9 with 13,000 a year is not the same as 5.0 -5.9 with only 1,300 a year. There is a possibility of 35 (4 to 4.9 magnitude) earthquakes on a given day.
If we get a 5 or above in the next 8 days I will forever be convinced there is something to this. If not, with this significant 4.7 magnitude quake in the right spot, I'll always have doubts both ways. But this 4.7 is real. Its combined with several other 4.2+ quakes on the same day in Japan.
Here is the USGS Data for the quake I predicted. Its not a monster, but its real. earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jja2.php
I think there is something to the theory, and I still expect a bigger earthquake in this region over the next 8 days.
View Stats
07/22/2009 (9:28 am)
My First Predicted Quake is a 4.7Okay now we have the first shot at a possible correlation. Its a significant quake, but the lowest I'd consider related (a 4.7 magnitude) and its just about right where I thought it would be. The X is pretty close to the circle I drew near Japan back in January. I'd love to include the 6.3 last week in Taiwan because it would be next to my other circle, but I can't really. I'd have to open the window to 8 days before or after the eclipse. That opens the door from a 2% chance of predicting a significant quake at a given time to a 4% chance. Again, I'd like to eliminate the possibility of a coincidence.
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090722235526491-222351.html
The problem with this is I really need a 5 magnitude to put us in a such a small realm of possibility that this is not pure chance. In my mind a 4.7 is a "strong maybe." 4.0 - 4.9 with 13,000 a year is not the same as 5.0 -5.9 with only 1,300 a year. There is a possibility of 35 (4 to 4.9 magnitude) earthquakes on a given day.
If we get a 5 or above in the next 8 days I will forever be convinced there is something to this. If not, with this significant 4.7 magnitude quake in the right spot, I'll always have doubts both ways. But this 4.7 is real. Its combined with several other 4.2+ quakes on the same day in Japan.
Here is the USGS Data for the quake I predicted. Its not a monster, but its real. earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jja2.php
I think there is something to the theory, and I still expect a bigger earthquake in this region over the next 8 days.
#93
The Galactic Center is located at 26 degrees Saggitarus. Jolts of Gravitational forces coming from the Galactic Centre and its reflection from Moon and other planets probably causes some earthquakes (not all).
Below is some interesting artciles by Susan Seymour Hedke related to this topic. According to her the next EarthQuake is likely occur on August 27th 2009. There are several more predictions she has made for this year. Let's see if those come true.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/15638884/NEWS-FROM-THE-GALACTIC-CENTRE-Recent-Earthquakes-as-Signs-of-the-Birth-of-the-Golden-Age
Wish you all the best in your quest to find a mathematical way of predicting the Earthquakes... AK
07/22/2009 (11:53 pm)
Hey Britton, I've also been following your predictions just like many others. Based on some research I did I have more reason to believe that the Galactic Center (Milky way) and its alignment with respect to Moon and other planets has more to do with the Earthquakes than Eclipses. The Galactic Center is located at 26 degrees Saggitarus. Jolts of Gravitational forces coming from the Galactic Centre and its reflection from Moon and other planets probably causes some earthquakes (not all).
Below is some interesting artciles by Susan Seymour Hedke related to this topic. According to her the next EarthQuake is likely occur on August 27th 2009. There are several more predictions she has made for this year. Let's see if those come true.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/15638884/NEWS-FROM-THE-GALACTIC-CENTRE-Recent-Earthquakes-as-Signs-of-the-Birth-of-the-Golden-Age
Wish you all the best in your quest to find a mathematical way of predicting the Earthquakes... AK
#94
Ed has a different theory on why the galaxy may have an effect, and I'll post his information after July 30th. You can visit Ed Oberg's site at www.iasoberg.com if you like.
I don't really understand the other theories. My mind is pretty much fixated on the concept that the larger gravitational pull of the sun and moon can trigger quakes. My concepts are stuck with the Newtonian model of physics. Its the same stuff thats behind game engine physics.
07/23/2009 (8:08 am)
@AK, Ed Oberg sent me some information similiar to this. The center of the Galaxy does not have as much of a significant pull as the sun and the moon. The next biggest is Venus and it is 1,000 times smaller than the Sun's pull. So if the galaxy does have an effect its not through gravity. The cubed root of the distance between us and the center of the galaxy is too great to have a gravitational effect. Ed has a different theory on why the galaxy may have an effect, and I'll post his information after July 30th. You can visit Ed Oberg's site at www.iasoberg.com if you like.
I don't really understand the other theories. My mind is pretty much fixated on the concept that the larger gravitational pull of the sun and moon can trigger quakes. My concepts are stuck with the Newtonian model of physics. Its the same stuff thats behind game engine physics.
#95
Retarded idea
So here is a completely retarded idea. If there really is an 8 day window before and after the eclipse, and the New Zealand quake was related with a 7.8 magnitude quake. This was 8 days before the eclipse and New Zealand was at the end of the eclipse path. So using retarded logic, would the next big quake be 8 days after the eclipse at the beginning of the eclipse path? The moon would be on the opposite side of the earth.
Again this idea is pretty retarded, and has no evidence to back it. I'm not counting the New Zealand quake as part of my theory. I never thought the eclipse could have an effect there, and I still don't think its really related. This would be a new theory and it would say you can have an earthquake related to an eclipse just about anywhere in the world along the eclipse path in a 16 day window (8 days on either side). The problem with this new theory is its simply not very useful in predicting an earthquake. You have no idea where or exactly when the earthquake will be, it literally covers half the earth for 16 days. Its too open to chance, and its too hard to disprove. Its the stuff of pseudo science.
I think I'll call this new theory the "Eclipsetard Earthquack theory" Because it is far too open, and its all but completely useless.
For example someone using the eclipsetard earthquack theory would expect a major quake in India on the 29th-30th. I think the idea is far fetched. One could use the following url neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_global.html to total the number of quakes greater than 6.0 for the year then calculate the average and look at the two week window for the eclipse.
For example we had 62 earthquakes greater than 6 in 2008. That is a weekly average of about 1. The annular eclipse in Feb 07 2008 had zero quakes greater than 6.0 for the two week period. The 2008 Aug 01 total eclipse had 4 earthquakes greater than 6.0 for the two week period. That shows 100% more significant quakes than average for the two week period of the total eclipse.
A possible valid theory
Here is a a less retarded idea, and it is backed with evidence. The recent 4.6 on the same day of the eclipse was in the same spot as the height of the eclipse. I'm thinking the same day eclipse quakes are about limited from a 4.6 to 6 magnitude. When I look at the March 1988, October 1995, and August 2008 eclipses we have a same day eclipse and earthquake just like we do in 2009. In all cases the 4.6 to 6.0 magnitude is on the day of a total solar eclipse, the earthquake happens on the same day as the eclipse in the same region where we have the height of the eclipse.
So what does this mean? That may be the limit of the direct effect of a total solar eclipse. A total solar eclipse can cause a 4.6 to 6.0 magnitude earthquake. The rest (the big ones) always occur days before or after, and may not be the direct result of the total solar eclipse.
This theory has some merit and its very specific. Same day, Same spot. I call this theory the "Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake theory" or "Eclipse Quake Theory" for short. It was the original idea. I think it has merit and I think it has limits to the direct effect.
A debatable theory
What is still debatable is what about the big one in Japan? I still think we have until July 30th for a 6+ in Japan. This is based on the results from the 2004 and 2007 partial eclipses.
07/23/2009 (8:23 am)
Attempts to Analyze the data so farRetarded idea
So here is a completely retarded idea. If there really is an 8 day window before and after the eclipse, and the New Zealand quake was related with a 7.8 magnitude quake. This was 8 days before the eclipse and New Zealand was at the end of the eclipse path. So using retarded logic, would the next big quake be 8 days after the eclipse at the beginning of the eclipse path? The moon would be on the opposite side of the earth.
Again this idea is pretty retarded, and has no evidence to back it. I'm not counting the New Zealand quake as part of my theory. I never thought the eclipse could have an effect there, and I still don't think its really related. This would be a new theory and it would say you can have an earthquake related to an eclipse just about anywhere in the world along the eclipse path in a 16 day window (8 days on either side). The problem with this new theory is its simply not very useful in predicting an earthquake. You have no idea where or exactly when the earthquake will be, it literally covers half the earth for 16 days. Its too open to chance, and its too hard to disprove. Its the stuff of pseudo science.
I think I'll call this new theory the "Eclipsetard Earthquack theory" Because it is far too open, and its all but completely useless.
For example someone using the eclipsetard earthquack theory would expect a major quake in India on the 29th-30th. I think the idea is far fetched. One could use the following url neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_global.html to total the number of quakes greater than 6.0 for the year then calculate the average and look at the two week window for the eclipse.
For example we had 62 earthquakes greater than 6 in 2008. That is a weekly average of about 1. The annular eclipse in Feb 07 2008 had zero quakes greater than 6.0 for the two week period. The 2008 Aug 01 total eclipse had 4 earthquakes greater than 6.0 for the two week period. That shows 100% more significant quakes than average for the two week period of the total eclipse.
A possible valid theory
Here is a a less retarded idea, and it is backed with evidence. The recent 4.6 on the same day of the eclipse was in the same spot as the height of the eclipse. I'm thinking the same day eclipse quakes are about limited from a 4.6 to 6 magnitude. When I look at the March 1988, October 1995, and August 2008 eclipses we have a same day eclipse and earthquake just like we do in 2009. In all cases the 4.6 to 6.0 magnitude is on the day of a total solar eclipse, the earthquake happens on the same day as the eclipse in the same region where we have the height of the eclipse.
So what does this mean? That may be the limit of the direct effect of a total solar eclipse. A total solar eclipse can cause a 4.6 to 6.0 magnitude earthquake. The rest (the big ones) always occur days before or after, and may not be the direct result of the total solar eclipse.
This theory has some merit and its very specific. Same day, Same spot. I call this theory the "Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake theory" or "Eclipse Quake Theory" for short. It was the original idea. I think it has merit and I think it has limits to the direct effect.
A debatable theory
What is still debatable is what about the big one in Japan? I still think we have until July 30th for a 6+ in Japan. This is based on the results from the 2004 and 2007 partial eclipses.
#96
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jlab.html
07/23/2009 (9:21 pm)
Britton, we got one, China.earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jlab.html
#97
What is interesting is we had one yesterday west of there. Its like a delayed effect after the eclipse. The big quakes are moving eastward each day. Its almost as if each day it the earthquake gets bigger as it moves toward Japan. Almost like the foot steps of a giant invisible Godzilla. Its following the path of the smaller quakes the days before, and the path of the total solar eclipse a couple of days ago.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
Anyone want to take odds if this pattern continues through China and Japan over the next few days? I'd take odds on this one.
In the movies Godzilla always hated the nuclear plants. Lets hope he is not headed to Hamaoka. Sorry for the Godzilla references, I cant help it, I am a game developer after all.
I'm not really worried about fear and panic anymore. I've been tracking the stats on this blog post and the hits have dropped from almost 10,000 a day to 100 a day. These are not theoretical quakes anymore, they are real. And it does seem the theoretical model I proposed is standing up to the test... so far anyway.
This "march of quakes" is new, but it makes sense to me as the moon is moving 12 degrees eastward each day. The quakes are following the moon.
07/23/2009 (9:49 pm)
@Jason, yep. Its a biggie at 5.7. China is Hans Lehner's terrirtory. His prediction is here: www.rqm.ch/earthquake_warnings_with_magnitu1.htmWhat is interesting is we had one yesterday west of there. Its like a delayed effect after the eclipse. The big quakes are moving eastward each day. Its almost as if each day it the earthquake gets bigger as it moves toward Japan. Almost like the foot steps of a giant invisible Godzilla. Its following the path of the smaller quakes the days before, and the path of the total solar eclipse a couple of days ago.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
Anyone want to take odds if this pattern continues through China and Japan over the next few days? I'd take odds on this one.
In the movies Godzilla always hated the nuclear plants. Lets hope he is not headed to Hamaoka. Sorry for the Godzilla references, I cant help it, I am a game developer after all.
I'm not really worried about fear and panic anymore. I've been tracking the stats on this blog post and the hits have dropped from almost 10,000 a day to 100 a day. These are not theoretical quakes anymore, they are real. And it does seem the theoretical model I proposed is standing up to the test... so far anyway.
This "march of quakes" is new, but it makes sense to me as the moon is moving 12 degrees eastward each day. The quakes are following the moon.
#98
I am also one of the vistor of this blog, since we got an alert from our friend circle.. Then after, i used to visit this blog whenever there is updates.
Your effots are welcom, eventhough theory not proved so far.
To add the strength to your Eclipse theory, i want to share the present change in India ( west cost, Mumbai). There about 5 meter tide ( 18 ft), in Mumbai coast.
This is ever experianced for the last 100 years.. This change may be the effect of Eclipse happend on 22nd.
This change proves, the gravitational force of the Moon/Sun, given a impact on the earth..
West coast of india ( Mumbai) also path of the eclipse i beleive..
This information shall help you in analyse the theory further.
Regs
Rakesh
07/23/2009 (10:50 pm)
Britton, I am also one of the vistor of this blog, since we got an alert from our friend circle.. Then after, i used to visit this blog whenever there is updates.
Your effots are welcom, eventhough theory not proved so far.
To add the strength to your Eclipse theory, i want to share the present change in India ( west cost, Mumbai). There about 5 meter tide ( 18 ft), in Mumbai coast.
This is ever experianced for the last 100 years.. This change may be the effect of Eclipse happend on 22nd.
This change proves, the gravitational force of the Moon/Sun, given a impact on the earth..
West coast of india ( Mumbai) also path of the eclipse i beleive..
This information shall help you in analyse the theory further.
Regs
Rakesh
#99
ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php
07/24/2009 (2:01 am)
Well just in case the USGS does not update on time, here're 2 other sites you can get the data about latest earthquakes and it seems there're some big ones for 24th july.ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php
#100
Where did you get your measurements from? Is there an internet site? I found this for California.
www.sfsailing.com/cgi-bin/weather/templates/sfstides.cfm
My guess is the deeper the ocean, the more volume is affected by the gravitational pull the deeper the tides. So India and Japan could have much deeper tides than California. I'd like to compare.
07/24/2009 (7:45 am)
@Rakesh, that information is very useful to the theory. An easy objective measurement of the effects of the gravitational pull the week after the eclipse is the size of the tides. 5 meters is huge! Are you sure this is correct?Where did you get your measurements from? Is there an internet site? I found this for California.
www.sfsailing.com/cgi-bin/weather/templates/sfstides.cfm
My guess is the deeper the ocean, the more volume is affected by the gravitational pull the deeper the tides. So India and Japan could have much deeper tides than California. I'd like to compare.
ts
I guess we'll find out soon.
For everyone: Check out http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/00000000091.html (Japanese Meteorological Association) for the latest quake information.