Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments
Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
View Stats
Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.
In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.
The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."
Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43
Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.
PREDICTED QUAKE_DATE ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2016-11-19 1498-09-20 1498-12-13 -84 114 7.5 33.5 135.2 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2017-04-01 1854-12-24 1854-11-20 34 140 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 1854-12-24 1854-11-04 50 114 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.
The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)
#62
I'm convinced there is something to this, but I do not wish to spread fear and panic. After July 30th I'll post more material that I have gathered. Until July 30th (after the prediction window is over) this post should be considered pure theory and speculation.
07/17/2009 (9:21 am)
@Reynaldo, I'm convinced there is something to this, but I do not wish to spread fear and panic. After July 30th I'll post more material that I have gathered. Until July 30th (after the prediction window is over) this post should be considered pure theory and speculation.
#63
You have shown great courage and persistence in supporting this theory. Having made it public has made me realize the good side of this information for public awareness. Thank you.
07/17/2009 (10:51 am)
@Britton,You have shown great courage and persistence in supporting this theory. Having made it public has made me realize the good side of this information for public awareness. Thank you.
#64
More than anything this blog post is showing a new way of spreading information on very obscure scientific research that is not mainstream. I feel this blog post has been an effective voice for the 2001 paper published by the Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University and for the theory proposed by retired USGS geologist Jim Berkland (video here). In addition to using the increased tides caused by the moon, he used missing animals and beached whales and Dolphins to make his prediction.
In this video Jim was completely wrong about his June 2008 prediction in California. Even at the hands of the "master" its obviously not an exact science yet.
The future will tell if this is spreading useless fear and panic, or if its a powerful new way to disseminate cutting edge scientific theory. On thing is for sure, blogging eliminates all political pressure and by passes the main stream media. Whether this is a good thing or not remains to be seen. I believe blogging is rapidly becoming be the newest and fastest way for the media to disseminate the news. Unfortunately it opens the door for potential crack pots. I may be one, even I don't know for sure.
I can't really say if the National Georgraphic episode featuring Jim Berkland's eclipse earthquake theory or this blog post has raised more awareness.
I'm not a "master." I'm not a geologist. I'm not qualified to make this prediction, its based on theory and research. At this point in time the Eclipse Earthquake theory is just a theory.
07/17/2009 (1:16 pm)
@Reynaldo,More than anything this blog post is showing a new way of spreading information on very obscure scientific research that is not mainstream. I feel this blog post has been an effective voice for the 2001 paper published by the Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University and for the theory proposed by retired USGS geologist Jim Berkland (video here). In addition to using the increased tides caused by the moon, he used missing animals and beached whales and Dolphins to make his prediction.
In this video Jim was completely wrong about his June 2008 prediction in California. Even at the hands of the "master" its obviously not an exact science yet.
The future will tell if this is spreading useless fear and panic, or if its a powerful new way to disseminate cutting edge scientific theory. On thing is for sure, blogging eliminates all political pressure and by passes the main stream media. Whether this is a good thing or not remains to be seen. I believe blogging is rapidly becoming be the newest and fastest way for the media to disseminate the news. Unfortunately it opens the door for potential crack pots. I may be one, even I don't know for sure.
I can't really say if the National Georgraphic episode featuring Jim Berkland's eclipse earthquake theory or this blog post has raised more awareness.
I'm not a "master." I'm not a geologist. I'm not qualified to make this prediction, its based on theory and research. At this point in time the Eclipse Earthquake theory is just a theory.
#65
I believe your theory deserves much more attention regardless of the credibility of its prediction. Mainstream people always have the nasty habit of rejecting everything they simply don't want to believe.
Btw, I have made an amendment to Wikipedia article on Solar eclipse of July 22, 2009.
07/17/2009 (8:25 pm)
@Britton,I believe your theory deserves much more attention regardless of the credibility of its prediction. Mainstream people always have the nasty habit of rejecting everything they simply don't want to believe.
Btw, I have made an amendment to Wikipedia article on Solar eclipse of July 22, 2009.
#66
I'd feel more confident with a computer simulation to back up the theory. As its stands I'm just doing a historical correlation. There is a problem with correlative data, and that is the old human problem of confusing coincidence with cause.
As it stands, even if the theory is correct we can't be certain that there will be a disaster associated eclipse. Even if we do get a quake, we can not realistically estimate the magnitude.
07/17/2009 (10:08 pm)
@Nilhan, Yikes! You are going to get me in deep trouble. Might want to take that down until after July 30th. If I'm right then you can post it. As it stands (I'm not 100% certain this will happen) we might be causing needless fear and panic. You did mention I'm not qualified, but you didn't mention its not even my theory. I'm just applying Jim Berkland's theory. Might want to give credit where its due (after July 30th).I'd feel more confident with a computer simulation to back up the theory. As its stands I'm just doing a historical correlation. There is a problem with correlative data, and that is the old human problem of confusing coincidence with cause.
As it stands, even if the theory is correct we can't be certain that there will be a disaster associated eclipse. Even if we do get a quake, we can not realistically estimate the magnitude.
#67
For what it's worth, I do appreciate your research and discussions on this. You're comment on post #14 ("..If people do take precaution on July 22nd and it saves lives then I'll be very happy. On the other hand if things get out of hand and it causes chaos and confusion then I'll be very upset, that is not my intent..") caught my attention and I, for one, find you to be doing this for genuine reasons. For that, you have my thanks and attention.
Whether this event occurs or not, your research and advocacy on this have led me to take some steps to prepare (ie getting canned food, water, extra baby food & diapers, etc.) my family and I for next week.. not get my family in "chaos" mode or try to spread chaos. Hopefully, the 22nd to the 28th will be "uneventful", but should something occur know that your "activities" helped prepare a family or two out here :).
Kind regards.
Jason
07/18/2009 (6:57 am)
Evening Mr LaRoche. My name is Jason and I serve on active duty in the USAF. My family and I are currently stationed at an AF installation in Fussa, Tokyo (Kanto Plains). During a recent phone conversation with my parents, they talked about the 22 Jul 09 eclipse in addition to the discussions going on about the possibility of a sizable earth quake in Japan. So, I jumped on my favorite search engine "Google" to find out more, which is how I ran across your page. I'm no scientist or computer engineer, by any stretch of the imagination, and have a "dated" familiarity regarding the topics of plate tectonics and astronomy with my college studies (dating myself back to '98). I've read through your articles and links to try and learn more about this topic to help "educate" myself on something which may or may not impact my family. For what it's worth, I do appreciate your research and discussions on this. You're comment on post #14 ("..If people do take precaution on July 22nd and it saves lives then I'll be very happy. On the other hand if things get out of hand and it causes chaos and confusion then I'll be very upset, that is not my intent..") caught my attention and I, for one, find you to be doing this for genuine reasons. For that, you have my thanks and attention.
Whether this event occurs or not, your research and advocacy on this have led me to take some steps to prepare (ie getting canned food, water, extra baby food & diapers, etc.) my family and I for next week.. not get my family in "chaos" mode or try to spread chaos. Hopefully, the 22nd to the 28th will be "uneventful", but should something occur know that your "activities" helped prepare a family or two out here :).
Kind regards.
Jason
#68
I did the same thing you did and bought extra food and water with the year 2000 scare (just in case). There is no harm in stockpiling food and water and I'm glad you did.
You hit the nail on the head. I am genuine in my belief. But, that does not equate to being correct. I'm just a game developer who saw a few TV shows and had an idea about a game simulator to help test the theory. I posted this blog for a discussion. The discussion sparked more research. The deeper I dug the more evidence I found and the more I became convinced there is something to this.
I realize that (without the proper background) I may be have been mislead by what I read and watched, and that Jim Berkland himself is not always correct. I'm stuck at this point, because when I made the post it was a "fun idea." Now that I've become increasingly aware that real lives may be at stake its not a "fun idea" anymore. Its a scary idea.
I looked at the tectonic plates and the path of the moon and drew a picture of where I though the greatest effects would be. I used an excel spreadsheet and an arbitrary 1 hour delay. The reason I picked Japan is simple. You can see three different joints in the tectonic plates touching in the tokai region of Japan. How scientific is that? Its not very scientific at all. One of the game developers asked if I could find historical evidence, and only then did I realize there was quite a bit of evidence and other peoples research behind the idea.
The only problem is, now that the idea is out of hand, I'm more likely to cause damage than good in the short run. We really need several weeks or months to prepare for something like this, and people have to know what to do and believe its coming.
In the long run if something does happen (and I hope its small) then we have a new tool that the geologist should be forced to use in predicting earthquakes. I say forced because they seem to have an aversion to it. This point baffles me. I'm not talking about voodoo here. I'm talking about a real thing called "gravity" and its real effects (the tides and the 3 foot distortion of the earths crust). The only debatable issue is how "big" the effect is. The other thing that scares me is that the majority of the scientific community is under the firm belief that earthquakes are unpredictable. They wont even try, or take any research seriously that does try.
As Mark Twain said "there is no sadder sight than a young pessimist." I think there is a sadder sight, its a majority scientists paid to do a job they are taught to believe is impossible. We wont see much progress in an environment like that. That's why I really like Jim Berkland. Cook or not, at least he is trying.
Still, the scientist may be correct, and the effect is not worth looking into.
All we can do is wait and see what happens over the next two weeks. This is the best test in my mind. Japan is earthquake prone, the eclipse will pass over 4 tectonic plates and through the "ring of fire" we'll have one of the closest moon perigees and longest eclipses in a century. If nothing happens here then maybe we will help disprove this theory.
07/18/2009 (8:11 am)
@Jason, I did the same thing you did and bought extra food and water with the year 2000 scare (just in case). There is no harm in stockpiling food and water and I'm glad you did.
You hit the nail on the head. I am genuine in my belief. But, that does not equate to being correct. I'm just a game developer who saw a few TV shows and had an idea about a game simulator to help test the theory. I posted this blog for a discussion. The discussion sparked more research. The deeper I dug the more evidence I found and the more I became convinced there is something to this.
I realize that (without the proper background) I may be have been mislead by what I read and watched, and that Jim Berkland himself is not always correct. I'm stuck at this point, because when I made the post it was a "fun idea." Now that I've become increasingly aware that real lives may be at stake its not a "fun idea" anymore. Its a scary idea.
I looked at the tectonic plates and the path of the moon and drew a picture of where I though the greatest effects would be. I used an excel spreadsheet and an arbitrary 1 hour delay. The reason I picked Japan is simple. You can see three different joints in the tectonic plates touching in the tokai region of Japan. How scientific is that? Its not very scientific at all. One of the game developers asked if I could find historical evidence, and only then did I realize there was quite a bit of evidence and other peoples research behind the idea.
The only problem is, now that the idea is out of hand, I'm more likely to cause damage than good in the short run. We really need several weeks or months to prepare for something like this, and people have to know what to do and believe its coming.
In the long run if something does happen (and I hope its small) then we have a new tool that the geologist should be forced to use in predicting earthquakes. I say forced because they seem to have an aversion to it. This point baffles me. I'm not talking about voodoo here. I'm talking about a real thing called "gravity" and its real effects (the tides and the 3 foot distortion of the earths crust). The only debatable issue is how "big" the effect is. The other thing that scares me is that the majority of the scientific community is under the firm belief that earthquakes are unpredictable. They wont even try, or take any research seriously that does try.
As Mark Twain said "there is no sadder sight than a young pessimist." I think there is a sadder sight, its a majority scientists paid to do a job they are taught to believe is impossible. We wont see much progress in an environment like that. That's why I really like Jim Berkland. Cook or not, at least he is trying.
Still, the scientist may be correct, and the effect is not worth looking into.
All we can do is wait and see what happens over the next two weeks. This is the best test in my mind. Japan is earthquake prone, the eclipse will pass over 4 tectonic plates and through the "ring of fire" we'll have one of the closest moon perigees and longest eclipses in a century. If nothing happens here then maybe we will help disprove this theory.
#69
Everything you say makes sense. I think, however, that this one will affect a wider portion of the planet.
I've been paying particularly close attention to the seismic actions of North America for the last few months, having nothing to do with science. Just feelings.
Could the forces you speak of not so profoundly affect the opposite side of the planet so as to influence activity here? Even a quick glance at the current USGS sites will tell you that activity here is at a peak.
My guess is that the major event you speak of will coincide with a major North American event.
Cheers,
Don
07/18/2009 (2:39 pm)
I second, third, or fourth the respect to you for what you have shown to the masses. I have ZERO qualifications, yet, have been promoting this theory for months! Not only that, but, I joined this community PURELY because I saw your information. I play NO games. Just wanted to talk with you.Everything you say makes sense. I think, however, that this one will affect a wider portion of the planet.
I've been paying particularly close attention to the seismic actions of North America for the last few months, having nothing to do with science. Just feelings.
Could the forces you speak of not so profoundly affect the opposite side of the planet so as to influence activity here? Even a quick glance at the current USGS sites will tell you that activity here is at a peak.
My guess is that the major event you speak of will coincide with a major North American event.
Cheers,
Don
#70
If your tool proves a useful tool, then it is my hope that it is used as a model to emulate. If it doesn't, then it is my hope that your efforts will help in the search and development of such a tool that would give warning to those who may be in danger from a natural disaster. As meteorologists have developed tools to aid in the identification and tracking of thunder storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, cyclones, etc., (same can be said for volcanoes) it's my hope that a tool may one day be found to accurately identify earthquakes. I hope that your efforts with this endeavor and theory, whether it's proved or dis-proved, will be received for what it is. A theory generated by an inquiring mind using the scientific method as their guide.
Thanks again.
Very respectfully.
Jason
07/18/2009 (3:28 pm)
Ohayou gozaimas LaRoche-san! For what it is worth, what you are doing is scientifically based (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method). You don't have to be a "scientist", branded or tagged, to use the scientific method. I agree whole heartedly that the scientists in the career field or specialties have the training and qualifications to "officially" speak, per se, on matters yet anyone and everyone should be a participant in using the scientific principles and developing "theories" in whatever en devours they pursue. You're following these principles and have developed a theory that, coincidentally, is shared by scientists. If your tool proves a useful tool, then it is my hope that it is used as a model to emulate. If it doesn't, then it is my hope that your efforts will help in the search and development of such a tool that would give warning to those who may be in danger from a natural disaster. As meteorologists have developed tools to aid in the identification and tracking of thunder storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, cyclones, etc., (same can be said for volcanoes) it's my hope that a tool may one day be found to accurately identify earthquakes. I hope that your efforts with this endeavor and theory, whether it's proved or dis-proved, will be received for what it is. A theory generated by an inquiring mind using the scientific method as their guide.
Thanks again.
Very respectfully.
Jason
#71
It may have an effect on other parts of the world, but I picked Japan, Taiwan and the south east pacific because I can see three tectonic plates meet in those locations with my eyes. I can also see the eclipse pass right over these plates in the NASA image.
Japan also has on average about 10% of the annual earthquakes. Just looking at probability (study from past quakes) I'd place the highest probability on Japan. I can't comment on the rest because I have not done any research in those areas. But the USGS online data and NASA eclipse data (linked on page 2) is there to dig into for anyone. I'd suggest you look for earthquakes a few hours before or within 8 days after an eclipse.
Eclipse Data
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSE/5MCSE-Maps-09.pdf
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSE/5MCSE-Maps-10.pdf
Earthquake data (Replace the last four digits of the URL with the year you want)
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2008.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2009.php
That is the beauty of this theory. With the advent of the internet (over the past 20 years) this data is now finally available easily to everyone. I think you will find a correlation with California. It is part of the "ring of fire" after all.
@Jason,
Thanks, kind words and agreement are coming from very few scientists. I think as the idea spreads more people are able to visualize the idea. I appreciate your comments. I'm working on a very basic model to simulate lunar perigee and gravitational pull on the earth from the sun and moon. With any luck this will help predict high tides and gravitation disturbances. I have a already have a basic sphere with the tectonic plates textured in. The idea is the number of plates crossed can be combined with recent quake data to calculate a basic hit ratio / probability of a quake. Naturally the effect is amplified during a solar eclipse.
View Stats
07/18/2009 (4:22 pm)
@Don,It may have an effect on other parts of the world, but I picked Japan, Taiwan and the south east pacific because I can see three tectonic plates meet in those locations with my eyes. I can also see the eclipse pass right over these plates in the NASA image.
Japan also has on average about 10% of the annual earthquakes. Just looking at probability (study from past quakes) I'd place the highest probability on Japan. I can't comment on the rest because I have not done any research in those areas. But the USGS online data and NASA eclipse data (linked on page 2) is there to dig into for anyone. I'd suggest you look for earthquakes a few hours before or within 8 days after an eclipse.
Eclipse Data
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSE/5MCSE-Maps-09.pdf
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSE/5MCSE-Maps-10.pdf
Earthquake data (Replace the last four digits of the URL with the year you want)
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2008.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2009.php
That is the beauty of this theory. With the advent of the internet (over the past 20 years) this data is now finally available easily to everyone. I think you will find a correlation with California. It is part of the "ring of fire" after all.
@Jason,
Thanks, kind words and agreement are coming from very few scientists. I think as the idea spreads more people are able to visualize the idea. I appreciate your comments. I'm working on a very basic model to simulate lunar perigee and gravitational pull on the earth from the sun and moon. With any luck this will help predict high tides and gravitation disturbances. I have a already have a basic sphere with the tectonic plates textured in. The idea is the number of plates crossed can be combined with recent quake data to calculate a basic hit ratio / probability of a quake. Naturally the effect is amplified during a solar eclipse.
#72
I was holding this one for later with some other interesting tidbits. I'm posting it because I don't think this event could be in anyway be caused by the eclipse. Its been raining fish and frogs in Japan over the past month and no one can figure it out.
I think this is more related to volcanic activity in Japan. It been raining frogs and fish near volcanic areas. I'm thinking there are a few long dormant geysers erupting. The geysers are probably part of a natural spring system that feeds a small ponds or streams where these fish and tadpoles live. When the geysers below the surface of the water erupt they blow the fish and tadpoles into the air, and they are noticed when they fall in the towns and cities that have these natural springs (right next to the spring where they live).
Articles
June 12th 2009
www.earthweek.com/2009/ew090612/ew090612g.html
June 17th 2009
blogs.discovermagazine.com/discoblog/2009/06/17/it%E2%80%99s-raining-tadpoles-fi...
June 17th 2009
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/17/japan-rain-tadpoles
June 19th 2009
www.wunderkabinett.co.uk/damndata/index.php?/archives/1831-Fishy-and-froggy-fall...
June 22nd 2009
www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/22/2604222.htm
What this means to me is that there might be possible volcanic activity in Japans near future. I googled the location of the stories and then googled the location of known volcanoes and geysers. It seems the stories are in fact reported near locations of known geysers and volcanoes. I'd also expect to see reports of new geysers erupting in Japan, but we don't see that. Most reports did not actually see the tadpoles fall from the sky either. Who knows? Its really very odd.
Japan's fafrotskies
Japan's Volcanoes
Japan's Geysers
I was able to find the location of the story, the volcanoes and geysers in just a few minutes. The only thing this means is that if there is a magma tide beneath the crust during the eclipse it may add pressure to a system that is already building up. In my opinion odd things are happening in Japan. The frog rain is probably directly related to volcanic activity. I also think the eclipse will have an effect on this activity. All of the recent fafrotskies occurred directly near or to the south west of a known geyser or volcano.
Frogs love hot springs, and often live in pools near geysers if they are not too hot. Take a look at yellow stone.
Whatever the reason, its not a normal occurrence to have frogs rain over different parts of a country for a month. Who knows what this is, or what the real cause is.
07/19/2009 (10:08 am)
Japan's recent fafrotskiesI was holding this one for later with some other interesting tidbits. I'm posting it because I don't think this event could be in anyway be caused by the eclipse. Its been raining fish and frogs in Japan over the past month and no one can figure it out.
I think this is more related to volcanic activity in Japan. It been raining frogs and fish near volcanic areas. I'm thinking there are a few long dormant geysers erupting. The geysers are probably part of a natural spring system that feeds a small ponds or streams where these fish and tadpoles live. When the geysers below the surface of the water erupt they blow the fish and tadpoles into the air, and they are noticed when they fall in the towns and cities that have these natural springs (right next to the spring where they live).
Quote:
In Japan, it's raining tadpoles and fish and frogs. Downpours that deposit dead creatures from Hiroshima to Iwate bewilder meteorologists. An office worker in the city of Nanao first reported the phenomenon after he heard a dull thud outside on the afternoon of June 4. The Mainichi Daily News reports dozens of the immature frogs were found early the following morning scattered around a home in Hakusan, about 25 miles to the southeast.
A 60-year-old woman in Miyoshi, Hiroshima Prefecture, found 13 dead tadpoles and a frog around 8 a.m. Monday in her garden and a nearby parking lot. They were spread across 20 meters.
On Saturday morning in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture, a teacher found more than 30 dead polliwogs scattered over a 10-meter radius on the sports field at Seien Girls' High School.
In a field in Shiwa, Iwate Prefecture, a 67-year-old woman said she heard a pitter-patter sound at around 6 p.m. Saturday and soon after found about a dozen tiny fishlike creatures lying on a sheet covering crops in the field. Some of the animals were still moving, she said.
Some 40 desiccated frogs and tadpoles were found at the tennis court of a girls' junior high and high school in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture, early Saturday morning by biology teacher Yuji Ota. Most of the amphibians were crushed, perhaps by the fall to earth, but a few remained intact and still smelled raw.
Articles
June 12th 2009
www.earthweek.com/2009/ew090612/ew090612g.html
June 17th 2009
blogs.discovermagazine.com/discoblog/2009/06/17/it%E2%80%99s-raining-tadpoles-fi...
June 17th 2009
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/17/japan-rain-tadpoles
June 19th 2009
www.wunderkabinett.co.uk/damndata/index.php?/archives/1831-Fishy-and-froggy-fall...
June 22nd 2009
www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/22/2604222.htm
What this means to me is that there might be possible volcanic activity in Japans near future. I googled the location of the stories and then googled the location of known volcanoes and geysers. It seems the stories are in fact reported near locations of known geysers and volcanoes. I'd also expect to see reports of new geysers erupting in Japan, but we don't see that. Most reports did not actually see the tadpoles fall from the sky either. Who knows? Its really very odd.
Japan's fafrotskies
Japan's Volcanoes
Japan's Geysers
I was able to find the location of the story, the volcanoes and geysers in just a few minutes. The only thing this means is that if there is a magma tide beneath the crust during the eclipse it may add pressure to a system that is already building up. In my opinion odd things are happening in Japan. The frog rain is probably directly related to volcanic activity. I also think the eclipse will have an effect on this activity. All of the recent fafrotskies occurred directly near or to the south west of a known geyser or volcano.
Frogs love hot springs, and often live in pools near geysers if they are not too hot. Take a look at yellow stone.
Quote:www.yellowstonetreasures.com/geyser_facts.htm
How hot are Yellowstone's hot springs? ... Yellowstone's hot springs cover a large range, from lukewarm up to superheated. Two examples of cool or lukewarm hot springs are Liberty Pool in Upper Geyser Basin, where the water is sometimes cool enough for frogs to live in.
Whatever the reason, its not a normal occurrence to have frogs rain over different parts of a country for a month. Who knows what this is, or what the real cause is.
#73
July 07 2009 New Geyser Erupts
www.panda.org/wwf_news/?169502/Kamchatka-geysers-sudden-eruption-a-peculiar-chal...
Here is a nice list of activity around the world. You have to pick out the articles that are near by Japan, or at least in the nearby region. Krakatoa looks a bit ominous. scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
Anak Kakatoa July 13th 2009?
Anak Kakatoa July 8th 2009
March 2009 Sakurajima Eruption, Japan
scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/03/sakurajima_eruption_video.php#more
So yeah there is a lot of volcanic activity in the region. I don't know if this is any more than normal. But it is a sign that the tectonic plates are under building pressure. The fact that the fish and frogs (in the post above) are deposited in about a 10 to 40 meter radius, does not sound like a water sprout or high winds caring the frogs and fish for miles before dropping them. It seems more likely they were pushed out, much like a geyser, and traveled a very short distance from the creek or pond in which they lived.
07/19/2009 (3:23 pm)
I've been looking for geyser activity in the region to support my theory that volcanic activity is picking up in the region. Again this is not caused by the eclipse. Its just a sign that volcanic activity in the form of lava is being pushed up from beneath the tectonic plates. To me this is a sign of pressure building in the subducted plates near the Eurasian Plate.July 07 2009 New Geyser Erupts
Quote:
Kamchatka, Russia – The sudden eruption of a new geyser in Russia’s Far East has taken scientists by surprise, underlining the distinctiveness of the remote but threatened Kamchatka peninsula.
The new geyser – dubbed “Prikolny” or “Peculiar” in English – has appeared in the Kronotsky Nature Reserve, in Uzon Caldera, 14 kms away from the world-renowned Valley of Geysers.
A reserve ranger was the first person to see the geyser – a column of boiling liquid shooting three meters high. A short while later, one of the observers said “Prikolny!” leading to the geyser’s naming, which will now appear on maps of the region.
Research on the geyser’s sudden appearance is ongoing, although scientists already have presented theories on its origin, including that serious changes affecting the entire Uzon thermal field caused its appearance, or that it was created from rising water levels in the field’s spring.
“Some theorize that Prikolny Geyser evolved from a pulsating hot spring,” said Valery Droznin, a senior researcher in Kronotsky Nature Reserve. “The process of a spring transforming to a geyser is not unknown to science.”
www.panda.org/wwf_news/?169502/Kamchatka-geysers-sudden-eruption-a-peculiar-chal...
Here is a nice list of activity around the world. You have to pick out the articles that are near by Japan, or at least in the nearby region. Krakatoa looks a bit ominous. scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
Anak Kakatoa July 13th 2009?
Anak Kakatoa July 8th 2009
Quote:
# A pilot spotted a ~10,000 foot / 3 km ash plume emanating from Anak Krakatau in Indonesia.
...
# Explosions were heard from Suwanose-jima in Japan, but no associated ash plumes were spotted.
# It sounds like a lava dome has been spotted at Sarychev Peak in the Kuril Islands of Russia. An "intense thermal anomaly" was noted at the summit in satellite images and gas/steam plumes have been seen each day. However, no new ash plumes have been noticed since June 16.
March 2009 Sakurajima Eruption, Japan
scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/03/sakurajima_eruption_video.php#more
Quote:
A VOLCANO in southern Japan erupted on Tuesday leading to a warning to nearby residents, the meteorological agency said.
The 1,117-metre Mount Sakurajima near Kagoshima city belched lava seven times from 5.22am (4.22am, Singapore time on Tuesday) and ejected cinders that were found nearly two kilometres from the crater, an agency official said.
'It's possible that the volcano will step up activity, and we have issued a warning to residents living nearby,' he told AFP.
The volcano, about 950km southwest of Tokyo, continued to spout fumes, although they were down from an earlier high of 1,200m.
The volcano last erupted in February, and the agency earlier this month boosted the alert level by a notch. -- AFP
So yeah there is a lot of volcanic activity in the region. I don't know if this is any more than normal. But it is a sign that the tectonic plates are under building pressure. The fact that the fish and frogs (in the post above) are deposited in about a 10 to 40 meter radius, does not sound like a water sprout or high winds caring the frogs and fish for miles before dropping them. It seems more likely they were pushed out, much like a geyser, and traveled a very short distance from the creek or pond in which they lived.
#74
I looked further and found more activity with Sakura-jima in July. What this means to me is that the pressure and volcanic activity is building up. If the eclipse has as big an effect in the molten magma below the crust as it does in the tides above the crust, then I expect big things to happen from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 in Japan.
www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20090701
I think we are seeing a build up of pressure that will be compounded by the eclipse. Then again, I may be suffering from a mild case of dementia. The farfrotskies has no real explanation. I'd also expect to see reports of new geysers erupting in Japan. What we do see is a new geyser in near by Kamchatka, and volcanic activity in Japan and Indonesia.
07/19/2009 (5:41 pm)
July 2009 Sakura-jimaI looked further and found more activity with Sakura-jima in July. What this means to me is that the pressure and volcanic activity is building up. If the eclipse has as big an effect in the molten magma below the crust as it does in the tides above the crust, then I expect big things to happen from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 in Japan.
www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20090701
Quote:
Based on information from JMA, the Tokyo VAAC reported that during 2-4 and 6-7 July explosions from Sakura-jima sometimes produced plumes that rose to altitudes of 2.1-2.7 km (7,000-9,000 ft) a.s.l. The plumes drifted N, NE, E, and SE.
Geologic Summary. Sakura-jima, one of Japan's most active volcanoes, is a post-caldera cone of the Aira caldera at the northern half of Kagoshima Bay. Eruption of the voluminous Ito pyroclastic flow was associated with the formation of the 17 x 23-km-wide Aira caldera about 22,000 years ago. The construction of Sakura-jima began about 13,000 years ago and built an island that was finally joined to the Osumi Peninsula during the major explosive and effusive eruption of 1914. Activity at the Kita-dake summit cone ended about 4,850 years ago, after which eruptions took place at Minami-dake. Frequent historical eruptions, recorded since the 8th century, have deposited ash on Kagoshima, one of Kyushu's largest cities, located across Kagoshima Bay only 8 km from the summit. The largest historical eruption took place during 1471-76.
I think we are seeing a build up of pressure that will be compounded by the eclipse. Then again, I may be suffering from a mild case of dementia. The farfrotskies has no real explanation. I'd also expect to see reports of new geysers erupting in Japan. What we do see is a new geyser in near by Kamchatka, and volcanic activity in Japan and Indonesia.
#75
I found another guy with a very similar theory. His name was Rudolf Falb
The problem with Falb was the way he worked his theory, it was not falsifiable. He would only count predictions that had an earthquake and ignore ones that did not. He also looked for lunar events outside of solar eclipses. Falb covered about one third of the days out of the year as potential days for an earthquake.
I take 8 days out of 365. I've taken into account every solar eclipse from 1997 through 2007 in Japan, including the one non event (solar eclipse with no quake) in 2003. That gives me an 85% correlation for success. I think its important to focus on solar eclipses because we have the added pull of the sun. A total solar eclipse is special to me because we have the pull of the sun with a lunar perigee. Perigee means the moon is closest to earth in its orbit. If there is anything to this theory then we have all of this working together with the 2009 eclipse.
Again a solar eclipse over a stable geological region with no fault lines and tectonic plates will not have any quake or volcanic activity. This means that not every eclipse will have a quake. We need a special set of circumstances.
This July 22nd 2009 has all the criteria for an earthquake. It passes over tectonic plates and fault lines. It has the pull of the sun, its a total eclipse, so it has lunar perigee. I'd also go as far as saying if there is no significant quake in Japan from July 22nd (21st UTC time) through July 30th 2009 then I'd have serious doubts about this theory. This is my scientific test and it is falsifiable.
07/19/2009 (11:31 pm)
Pseudo ScientistI found another guy with a very similar theory. His name was Rudolf Falb
Quote:
In 1868 Falb started the popular astronomy magazine, Sirius and began to develop his "lunisolar flood theory," published in 1869[1]. A central point of this hypothesis stated earthquakes to be caused by tidal forces acting on subterranean lakes of lava (causing earthquakes) and its upwelling through the earth's crust (causing volcanic eruptions). The strength of these forces being predictable from the positions of the sun and the moon relative to each other, Falb proceeded to postulate "Critical Days" during which geophysical disasters should be more likely to occur. Subsequently he extended this hypothesis, which initially had strong connections to ideas put forward by the French methematician Alexis Perrey, to include long-term weather forecasting. Falb's hypothesis gained a high public profile when he made predictions that seemed to come true with the 1873 Belluno earthquake and an eruption at Mount Aetna in 1874[2].
The problem with Falb was the way he worked his theory, it was not falsifiable. He would only count predictions that had an earthquake and ignore ones that did not. He also looked for lunar events outside of solar eclipses. Falb covered about one third of the days out of the year as potential days for an earthquake.
I take 8 days out of 365. I've taken into account every solar eclipse from 1997 through 2007 in Japan, including the one non event (solar eclipse with no quake) in 2003. That gives me an 85% correlation for success. I think its important to focus on solar eclipses because we have the added pull of the sun. A total solar eclipse is special to me because we have the pull of the sun with a lunar perigee. Perigee means the moon is closest to earth in its orbit. If there is anything to this theory then we have all of this working together with the 2009 eclipse.
Again a solar eclipse over a stable geological region with no fault lines and tectonic plates will not have any quake or volcanic activity. This means that not every eclipse will have a quake. We need a special set of circumstances.
This July 22nd 2009 has all the criteria for an earthquake. It passes over tectonic plates and fault lines. It has the pull of the sun, its a total eclipse, so it has lunar perigee. I'd also go as far as saying if there is no significant quake in Japan from July 22nd (21st UTC time) through July 30th 2009 then I'd have serious doubts about this theory. This is my scientific test and it is falsifiable.
#76
07/20/2009 (1:57 am)
The earth has about 10 quakes greater than magnitude 5 every day, finding one near the path of an eclipse doesn't mean anything, especially if you allow, as some people do, time periods up to to several weeks after the eclipse to count the earthquakes it supposedly caused. The moon does not impede the sun's gravitational effects on the earth in an eclipse, that's not how gravity works.
#77
I've said all along the force is combined. That's the theory. Actually, the combined gravitational force of the sun and moon during a solar eclipse is an established fact. The window is for 8 days, July 22nd -July 30th for a very specific region, Japan. More specifically the tokai region of Japan. You can't get any more specific than that. By the way if you are looking only at significant earthquakes (what I am talking about), your numbers are not correct.
There are approximately 1,319 significant quakes (>5) per year, which is a little less than 4 per day. That means we will have about 32 significant (Greater than 5 Magnitude) quakes over 25,000 miles in circumference (ignoring longitude) in 8 days.
Magnitude - Average Annually
8 and higher - 1
7-7.9 - 17
6 - 6.9 - 134
5-5.9 - 1319
4-4.9 - 13,000
3-3.9 - 130,000
2-2.9 - 1,300,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
How many significant quakes have we had in the past 8 days in Japan? Zero. 8 days before that? Zero.
Magnitude 7 and above is even less, about 20 per year. Tell me the odds of such an earthquake in Japan between July 22nd - July 30th in Japan. neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html
Then take a long look at the results I've posted from 1997-2007 of eclipses and quakes in Japan. (All above 5.0) If you think there is no correlation I'd be surprised. But, don't take my word for it. Take look at this study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
You are correct, if the window is too big (say several weeks or months) and we look at the entire eclipse path then yeah, I'd say its pure chance. What I'm talking about is very specific, with a very low chance of occurring. There is a big difference. I'm talking about 8 days in Japan. That's a prediction with heavy odds against it.
We will see who is right me, or "snopes." If I'm right I'm sure there will be plenty to say ... "oh you have 4 significant quakes per day. Its just blind luck." That's what they say about Jim Berkland and his 1989 prediction.
8 days out of 365 is about 2% of the total, and that is just to predict the time. The actual odds of getting the location make it much less than a 2% chance of correctly predicting a quake. The odds of correctly predicting a quake are so small, modern geologists think its impossible. I'd have better odds (1/35) walking into a roulette table and betting on 22 black than on predicting this quake if there was not something to the tidal theory.
07/20/2009 (3:12 am)
@arun, correct. The moon does not impede the suns pull. Where did you read this? I've said all along the force is combined. That's the theory. Actually, the combined gravitational force of the sun and moon during a solar eclipse is an established fact. The window is for 8 days, July 22nd -July 30th for a very specific region, Japan. More specifically the tokai region of Japan. You can't get any more specific than that. By the way if you are looking only at significant earthquakes (what I am talking about), your numbers are not correct.
There are approximately 1,319 significant quakes (>5) per year, which is a little less than 4 per day. That means we will have about 32 significant (Greater than 5 Magnitude) quakes over 25,000 miles in circumference (ignoring longitude) in 8 days.
Magnitude - Average Annually
8 and higher - 1
7-7.9 - 17
6 - 6.9 - 134
5-5.9 - 1319
4-4.9 - 13,000
3-3.9 - 130,000
2-2.9 - 1,300,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
How many significant quakes have we had in the past 8 days in Japan? Zero. 8 days before that? Zero.
Magnitude 7 and above is even less, about 20 per year. Tell me the odds of such an earthquake in Japan between July 22nd - July 30th in Japan. neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html
Then take a long look at the results I've posted from 1997-2007 of eclipses and quakes in Japan. (All above 5.0) If you think there is no correlation I'd be surprised. But, don't take my word for it. Take look at this study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
You are correct, if the window is too big (say several weeks or months) and we look at the entire eclipse path then yeah, I'd say its pure chance. What I'm talking about is very specific, with a very low chance of occurring. There is a big difference. I'm talking about 8 days in Japan. That's a prediction with heavy odds against it.
We will see who is right me, or "snopes." If I'm right I'm sure there will be plenty to say ... "oh you have 4 significant quakes per day. Its just blind luck." That's what they say about Jim Berkland and his 1989 prediction.
8 days out of 365 is about 2% of the total, and that is just to predict the time. The actual odds of getting the location make it much less than a 2% chance of correctly predicting a quake. The odds of correctly predicting a quake are so small, modern geologists think its impossible. I'd have better odds (1/35) walking into a roulette table and betting on 22 black than on predicting this quake if there was not something to the tidal theory.
#78
I'm sorry if I've caused trouble for you by putting this on Wikipedia, but it does allow many more people to get to know about this. I had to write it in a very balanced manner to keep the conformists at bay. As per your request credit is given to James Berkland as well. After all, I don't want to see this becoming just another post-diction if unfortunately what is being said becomes a reality.
I am not a geologist, nor a scientist, but a software developer as you are with a passion for geology, physics and science. I'm not a game developer and joined this site only to have a discussion with you, just as many others in this thread.
I live in a country where I have plenty of miserable experiences on the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004. I’ve heard plenty of cases where local people have witnessed abnormal animal behavior well before giant waves had even reached the coast. Those people have no gain of making such a story; in fact many believe it is true. Just as this eclipse theory, animal-behavior theory is also being rejected and recklessly ridiculed by majority of these so called scientists. Also remember that it was a full moon day.
Most of the scientists are just like frogs in abandoned water well, caged in their own confined space. For them to accept something, they need it to be measurable, repeatable and observable. That’s why things like love, reincarnation, and mind are inexplicable for them. They reject everything that has not been observed or measured. Yet surprisingly they accept theories like Big-bang theory, which is totally based on mere speculation with tiny bits of collected observances here and there. Some people even have theories of everything, just as those stupid people in Isaac Newton’s era who thought they knew everything.
So my point is we should always be open-minded and let us not blindly accept or reject anything. Unknown cannot be uncovered from the known. Known is born from unknown. There’s so much to see, so much to learn. Let’s see what happens. Keep up the good work Britton.
Hope the scientists, not you, are right this time!
07/20/2009 (10:02 am)
@Britton,I'm sorry if I've caused trouble for you by putting this on Wikipedia, but it does allow many more people to get to know about this. I had to write it in a very balanced manner to keep the conformists at bay. As per your request credit is given to James Berkland as well. After all, I don't want to see this becoming just another post-diction if unfortunately what is being said becomes a reality.
I am not a geologist, nor a scientist, but a software developer as you are with a passion for geology, physics and science. I'm not a game developer and joined this site only to have a discussion with you, just as many others in this thread.
I live in a country where I have plenty of miserable experiences on the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004. I’ve heard plenty of cases where local people have witnessed abnormal animal behavior well before giant waves had even reached the coast. Those people have no gain of making such a story; in fact many believe it is true. Just as this eclipse theory, animal-behavior theory is also being rejected and recklessly ridiculed by majority of these so called scientists. Also remember that it was a full moon day.
Most of the scientists are just like frogs in abandoned water well, caged in their own confined space. For them to accept something, they need it to be measurable, repeatable and observable. That’s why things like love, reincarnation, and mind are inexplicable for them. They reject everything that has not been observed or measured. Yet surprisingly they accept theories like Big-bang theory, which is totally based on mere speculation with tiny bits of collected observances here and there. Some people even have theories of everything, just as those stupid people in Isaac Newton’s era who thought they knew everything.
So my point is we should always be open-minded and let us not blindly accept or reject anything. Unknown cannot be uncovered from the known. Known is born from unknown. There’s so much to see, so much to learn. Let’s see what happens. Keep up the good work Britton.
Hope the scientists, not you, are right this time!
#79
I still wish for a significant earthquake (maybe out in the ocean) and a 20 Cm (8 inch tsunami) just enough to lend credibility to the theory. I really hope that something small (but significant) does happen so that we can start using the theory to gain insight into earthquake prediction.
If anything changes the belief that earthquakes are completely unpredictable in the scientific community I'd be grateful. Until this belief changes I don't see how we can make any progress. A hobbiest geologist quack like me should not be the one making the predictions.
Still, I can't repeat this enough. This is just a theory. Its not an actual warning. I have no credentials to back the theory. If nothing happens, then I think we should all agree that the scientists are correct, and there is nothing to this idea.
If I am wrong, my foolishness should have a benefit, it should help either add credibility to the theory or discredit it. Hopefully (If I am wrong) the scientific community wont have to listen to another quack, and could simply link to this blog post to discredit the next claim.
07/20/2009 (1:14 pm)
@Nilhan, There have been very few times I hoped I was wrong. This is one of them. I still wish for a significant earthquake (maybe out in the ocean) and a 20 Cm (8 inch tsunami) just enough to lend credibility to the theory. I really hope that something small (but significant) does happen so that we can start using the theory to gain insight into earthquake prediction.
If anything changes the belief that earthquakes are completely unpredictable in the scientific community I'd be grateful. Until this belief changes I don't see how we can make any progress. A hobbiest geologist quack like me should not be the one making the predictions.
Still, I can't repeat this enough. This is just a theory. Its not an actual warning. I have no credentials to back the theory. If nothing happens, then I think we should all agree that the scientists are correct, and there is nothing to this idea.
If I am wrong, my foolishness should have a benefit, it should help either add credibility to the theory or discredit it. Hopefully (If I am wrong) the scientific community wont have to listen to another quack, and could simply link to this blog post to discredit the next claim.
#80
Over the next 8 days I expect a very high chance of earthquake in this region. Just looking at the last 10 years the biggest quakes were at the tail end of the 8 day period.
I'm not counting the recent Taiwan earthquake, it was too early for my prediction window. The Taiwan quake (6.3) on July 13th occurred more than 8 days before the eclipse. I refuse to alter my prediction to include this quake, to do so defeats the theory.
I've picked the two best players for my eclipse earthquake theory team. We have Japan (the nation with the highest number of earthquakes) and we have a total solar eclipse (the solar eclipse with the highest tides and closest pass of the moon to earth) Over the next few days they work together.
If there is anything at all to this theory then I expect to see something happen in this region in the next 8 days. If nothing happens then I don't think the theory has enough pull to be considered a threat, I mean we have the two best players working together with this one. A partial eclipse over any other country would have much less of a chance in my opinion.
Here, in the image below we have a zoom in on the region.
These are the REAL earthquakes (not predictions) from last week and today.
You can view the zoom here: earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
Let me explain what you are seeing. The bigger the box the bigger the quake. Yellow is for last week, orange is for today and red is for the last hour. If we get a really big box, a magnitude 7, then we have a possible tsunami warning that will go with it. The USGS does a great job. This image is updated so we can watch it here as the events unfold.
Today we can see the little yellow spots all around the Phillipine plate for the quakes last week. I expect to see much bigger red and orange ones take their place this week. We are witnessing history. This sort of observation of a test of a theory was not available to the general public even as short a time as 20 years ago.
The computer simulator I'd like to build would be used for predictions, at this point we are witnessing the real test of the theory. If something does happen this week, I'll build the simulator and we will have tool to help us predict what is currently thought impossible.
The pattern we see here, a few quakes in a near straight line from India to China and a great deal around the phillipine plate, is what I'd expect to see with a gradual build up of tidal forces over the past week. Now we will reach the height of the tidal forces with the eclipse, and then the gradual decline of tidal forces over the next 8 days.
Again the idea that we will have a significant quake as a result of this eclipse is a theory. If nothing happens during the next 8 days, then I think we have evidence to discredit the theory.
As a side note, I'll keep the idea of realistic game simulators to myself (until after I've proven the model) from now on. I really thought posting the idea here would keep it in the game community. I realize now that was a pretty naive idea. Since the cat is out of the bag, we might as well pay attention. Over the next few days we can lay the theory to rest, or if something happens start using it.
07/21/2009 (9:30 am)
And now we watch... In the next few hours we will pass over the biggest chance for a same day eclipse and quake in Japan. Click here to view all the recent quakes: neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/Over the next 8 days I expect a very high chance of earthquake in this region. Just looking at the last 10 years the biggest quakes were at the tail end of the 8 day period.
I'm not counting the recent Taiwan earthquake, it was too early for my prediction window. The Taiwan quake (6.3) on July 13th occurred more than 8 days before the eclipse. I refuse to alter my prediction to include this quake, to do so defeats the theory.
I've picked the two best players for my eclipse earthquake theory team. We have Japan (the nation with the highest number of earthquakes) and we have a total solar eclipse (the solar eclipse with the highest tides and closest pass of the moon to earth) Over the next few days they work together.
If there is anything at all to this theory then I expect to see something happen in this region in the next 8 days. If nothing happens then I don't think the theory has enough pull to be considered a threat, I mean we have the two best players working together with this one. A partial eclipse over any other country would have much less of a chance in my opinion.
Here, in the image below we have a zoom in on the region.
These are the REAL earthquakes (not predictions) from last week and today.
You can view the zoom here: earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
Let me explain what you are seeing. The bigger the box the bigger the quake. Yellow is for last week, orange is for today and red is for the last hour. If we get a really big box, a magnitude 7, then we have a possible tsunami warning that will go with it. The USGS does a great job. This image is updated so we can watch it here as the events unfold.
Today we can see the little yellow spots all around the Phillipine plate for the quakes last week. I expect to see much bigger red and orange ones take their place this week. We are witnessing history. This sort of observation of a test of a theory was not available to the general public even as short a time as 20 years ago.
The computer simulator I'd like to build would be used for predictions, at this point we are witnessing the real test of the theory. If something does happen this week, I'll build the simulator and we will have tool to help us predict what is currently thought impossible.
The pattern we see here, a few quakes in a near straight line from India to China and a great deal around the phillipine plate, is what I'd expect to see with a gradual build up of tidal forces over the past week. Now we will reach the height of the tidal forces with the eclipse, and then the gradual decline of tidal forces over the next 8 days.
Again the idea that we will have a significant quake as a result of this eclipse is a theory. If nothing happens during the next 8 days, then I think we have evidence to discredit the theory.
As a side note, I'll keep the idea of realistic game simulators to myself (until after I've proven the model) from now on. I really thought posting the idea here would keep it in the game community. I realize now that was a pretty naive idea. Since the cat is out of the bag, we might as well pay attention. Over the next few days we can lay the theory to rest, or if something happens start using it.
Reynaldo Corsino