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Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017

by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments

Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:

Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.

In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/NankaiTrough600_zps0d6060a0.jpg


The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm

"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."

Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43

Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.

PREDICTED    QUAKE_DATE   ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS  SAROS   MAG LAT     LONG       REGION
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016-11-19   1498-09-20   1498-12-13   -84   114   8.6   34      138.1    JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA
2016-11-19   1498-09-20   1498-12-13   -84   114   7.5   33.5    135.2    JAPAN: NANKAIDO
2017-04-01   1854-12-24   1854-11-20    34   140   8.3   33.20   135.60   JAPAN
2017-04-02   1854-12-24   1854-11-04    50   114   8.3   33.20   135.60   JAPAN

In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/stresstransfer.jpg

t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSzzE8ksa5HV0nMtxopKF2Af-SzqyCxasv5pigGYowRvsGtMJMpCQIJybQn

The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.

Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts

The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.

Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/JapanMarch2011-1.jpg

PREDICTED    ORIGIN       SAROS  MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-08   1916-04-21   118    7.8   33      141      JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU

Actual
DATE         SAROS   MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-11   118     9.0   38.30   142.37   JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU

The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.

P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained



----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------

Eclipse Earthquake Theory

What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.

The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.

Scientific Papers Backing the Theory

This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/

Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.

The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.

AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes

Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.

Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies

The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.

Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)

www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif


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#41
07/01/2009 (9:04 pm)
@U Win Naing,

I understand your concern about Burma (next to China)

Fist off I'm not qualified to tell you

I'll just stick to the advice of Hans Lehner, and what other seismologists say about predicting the size of a quake.

From what I see the earthquakes associated with an eclipse are totally dependent on how much pressure is built up in the tectonic plate. The eclipse does not cause the quake, the release of the pressure in the tectonic plates or fault lines cause the quake. According to the eclipse quake theory the changes in gravity during the eclipse just facilitate this process.

The trick is to look at the earthquake cycle of the region, how long its been since the last big quake and how much movement you have in the fault lines and tectonic plates. This gives you an idea of how big the quake will be.

The best I can say is to look at Hans Lehners prediction for your neighbor (China) He seems to think there will be a 7.5 to a 7.9 for these provinces ... Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Hangzou and Shanghai.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/burma.jpg
Hans Lehner's Prediction

If he is right then the only place Burma should be concerned about is the areas of Burma that are close to these regions of China. That would be North Burma.

I have not looked at the earthquake cycles in Burma, so I cant really say if there is a possibility of a quake there. I can say I doubt you will be affected by a Tsunami from Japan.

Professor Kerry Sieh from Caltech is concerned about a tsunami in the near future from a quake in Malaysia / Indonesia, but neither Dr Sieh nor Hans Lehner nor I think that there will be a tsunami from that region on July 22nd 2009.

Disclaimer: A Guess
This is just a guess but, I've seen that the areas that seem most affected by the gravitational pull seem to be closer to the height of the eclipse. To me I think Taiwan is the furthest point west of the eclipse that will have any impact. Personally I think India, Burma and China are pretty safe (30% chance), but Japan (80% chance) is not.

The real point of this whole blog post

The reason I made the prediction in the first place, was only to start a dialog on using a game engine to build an eclipse quake simulator. We can take this quake data, calculate the assumed tectonic pressure, the eclipse data and come up with a computer simulation in a modern game engine to produce a quantifiable probability of a quake and its magnitude. I think this would be a giant leap forward in predicting earthquakes, would be rather cost effective (the cost of game engines and processors are rather cheap these days). It should not take longer than a couple of years to have a really good simulator.

If we build the simulator to be flexible to take into account new data (recent seismic activity, magnetic fluctuation or missing cat reports) then we can refine the simulator over time. I'd bet with this strategy that we could have a very accurate prediction method with in a decade.
#42
07/01/2009 (9:27 pm)
Yes, I am following Han Lehners' prediction to our neighbor, China, and also studying about the past earthquake circles in Burma via NASA and USGS data.
Thanks again for your prompt reply and your understanding about my concern, I will keep studying and keeping in touch with your post-comments.
Wishing there will be successful simulators to predict earth quakes and tsunamis, and results from those future simulators can issue better warnings to save all human being from that kind of natural disasters.
#43
07/01/2009 (9:56 pm)
Geologists who think outside the box

I finally found a reference to the TV show I saw that gave me the idea in the first place. It was "Sightings" on the Sci-Fi channel. I read some articles that guy who presented the theory was a geology teacher named Michael Lee. Actually it was Jim Berkland.

www.pbs.org/wnet/wp-content/legacy-images/2/54/sm_talltales.jpg
Jim Berkland
www.syzygyjob.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemi...
Book reference
Nature Episode on you tube


I found another reference to a geologist named Jim Berkland who uses the tidal forces and missing cat reports to predict earthquakes. Last I read he claims to have an 80% success rate in predicting earthquakes.

Quote:
Berkland was suspended for 2 months from his Santa Clara County geology position in late October, 1989 after an article appeared in the Gilroy Dispatch (Gilroy, California) on October 13, one day before the start of Baseball's 1989 World Series. In an interview with the reporter, he made a prediction that a major earthquake would occur in the San Francisco Bay Area during the series. The Loma Prieta earthquake occurred on October 17, just before the start of the third game of the Series.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/gilroy.dispatch.jpg

Berkland was 100% correct on this 1989 World Series Prediction prediction!! Except it was not a 6 it was a 7.0 monster.

I can see the tidal forces having an effect, to me this is a big part of the eclipse quake theory. I suppose the cats can sense something we cannot.

Eclipse Quake Theory - Jim Berkland

Here is an excerpt from an interview, much like what I saw on sightings.

Quote:
David: How did you notice that the association between this and earthquakes?

James: Okay, so I said, hey if that's causing the ocean tides to go up, maybe the solid earth has a tide in it. Indeed it does, about three feet. I didn't know about it at the time. Well, if the earth is bulging up and down, maybe that's limbering up the fault lines. And if they're meta-stable-ready to fail-- this little extra stress of the movement of the earth, the undulation, underneath this gravitational stress, might trigger the fault into action. So I said, hmm, we've had six quakes here-- the day of the full moon, two days after the full moon, on the day of perigee, six days after the new moon and perigee.

All six quakes that hit the Bay Area from my arrival there in September until January 8th confirmed this wild idea. So I thought, well, if it continues like this, we should have a quake within the next week. I told the folks around the office that there was likely to be a quake around here in the next few days. They said, how big? Well, these others were mainly 3's and low 4's, and since this is even a higher tidal force, probably a 4 to a 5. Two days later 4.4 hit down in Buellor, and I said to myself, boy, this is simple. What's so tough about predicting quakes? Why isn't everyone using this method? I still don't know why everybody isn't using it.

When I went to Peru in November of 74, 94, our Peruvian of Inca descent said after the eclipse, I am so happy you were able to see our eclipse. We in Peru have a tradition we watch the eclipse, and then we wait for the earthquake. I said, would you say that again for my video camera, please? Totally caught me by surprise- my idea, maintained by the Incas. So I had an interview with her for like ten minutes with the video camera. No doubt, they could see the relationship. She said, what's unusual is that we already had the quake. Koosco shook with a 4 magnitude quake, three hours after the moment of totality, she said. Usually it takes a day or so, and it's possibly bigger.

Bingo! After 6 months I've found the guy who gave me the idea. Now I'm going to contact him and see what he thinks about the Total Solar Eclipse of July 22nd 2008.

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#44
07/02/2009 (6:27 pm)
Attempting to gain ground with qualified scientists

Hans Lehner (President of the Institute for Space Quantum Physics and Space Quantum Research) was the first to post his thoughts that were very similiar to my own. I've attempted to contact Jim Berkland (Retrired USGS Geologist) and Ole Nielsen (Computational Scientist at Geoscience Australia) to see what their thoughts are.

Additional Research
I have been in email correspondence with Ed Oberg and he has shared some of his findings with me that I hope to be able to share with you in the near future. Ed Oberg has done considerable research in the field of gravitational anomalies during an eclipse and has published articles on the allias effect. One thing Ed told me I can share with you.

Quote:
You may not be aware but on the 22nd that is the closest that the moon will be to the earth this century.

My biggest concern is this is not my field of expertise. I have no credibility to issue a warning to the right people. I also believe that there is a good chance that people are in danger. I really need to rely on the experts to help here.

If there is a danger I need them to join with Hans in issuing a warning. Their credibility in this geological field, and similar scientific fields may help people in this region avoid a potential disaster. No one can stop the quake or tsunami, but they can take precaution. They can stay away from the beaches and not travel in the potential quake zones.

If at all possible I'd like the Japanese to power down the Hamoaka nuclear power plant from July 17th through the 29th. That is a tall order, but its one thing that could help the situation greatly.
#45
07/03/2009 (12:13 am)
Thanks for your concern on Japanese Nuke plant which can cause more unseen effects to people in that area if there comes one or more disaster. Mr. Britton, I really appreciate your work that makes chances for people to avoid from those potential areas of possible earthquakes and Tsunami.
I have translated and posted your 44th comment on my blog to let online users from Myanmar know the situation up to date here http://mmweather.wordpress.com/2009/07/03/latest-comment-by-author-for-22-july-eclips-earthquake-theory/
I am sorry to show this link here but I think I have to let you know what am I doing to let my colleagues know how it is going to be.
#46
07/03/2009 (6:08 am)
@U Win Naing,

Good point. I've been focused on the safety of the Japanese near the plant. I forgot about the effects the Chernobyl disaster had on its neighbors in 1986. I'm not sure what the wind patterns are, but if the radioactive fallout from the hamaoka nuclear plant in japan blows south westerly it can affect one of the most densely populated areas in the world.
#47
07/03/2009 (8:17 pm)
The biggest question I've always had with the eclipse quake theory, is how could the effect be delayed? How can a quake occur a few days after the eclipse and still be related to the event? I think I know why now. The answer is that the moon completes one orbit around earth every 29.5 days. The orbital path is set. So the day before and a few days after the same gravitational effects and tidal forces are in play, just in a slightly lesser amount, and in a slightly different place. So if the eclipse does not trigger it the same rules apply the next day but just 1/30th less. Assuming the moon moves more or less in a basic circle of 360 degrees we can calculate the angle of difference between the sun and the moon. The moon makes a complete orbit of the earth every 29.5 days so 360/29.5 = 12.2 degrees per day.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/eclipse_timed_effect.jpg
-12 Degrees day before
0 Degrees eclipse day
+12 Degrees 1 day after
+24 Degrees 2 days after
+36 Degrees 3 day after
+48 Degrees 4 days after
+60 Degrees 5 days after
+72 Degrees 6 days after
+84 Degrees 7 days after
+96 Degrees 8 days after

Its possible that if the gravitational and tidal forces don't succeed the first couple of days it has another chance over the next several days. It could be that the effect is repeated over several days, and this would explain why we have quakes right before or within a few days after the eclipse.

But its not a complete explanation. The earth rotates and the moon and the sun are in the pretty much the same position all over the world. There is something else in the soup, so to speak.
#48
07/06/2009 (6:24 am)
Update from the Scientists

static.myopera.com/upic/pool1/Cg/IAV/pN1XqRynokc2qtT9lAQkZc/207468_l.jpg
Ole Nielsen
Computational Scientist at Geoscience Australia
my.opera.com/nielsol/blog/2006/11/22/tokai-earthquakes

Quote:
I am out at sea right now, so I'll keep it short. First, thank you for your remarks. I read of course about the 2008 quake you mention. I don't think the eclipse will have any influence. Maybe more later, when I get home in a couple of weeks.

For Japan's sake I hope he is right. Ole is the one who specifically mentions the location of the Hamaoka nuclear plant as a very real problem in the next tokai quake.



tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:cARwr_e13ywpMM:http://www.supernovae-energy.com/images/Bild%25205%2520Hans%2520Lehner.jpg
Hans Lehner
President of the Institute for Space Quantum Physics

Quote:
2009 Solar Eclipse in China on July 22, 2009, and Earthquake Warning

Media Report of May 27, 2009 (highest priority) with the request to the media to carry in various publications in the weeks ahead an informative message to the public and the industry, as well as to the European universities and academies encouraging them to perform weight measurements in the Chengdu region of Sichuan (China) and to install seismometers, since this event will be uniquely significant for precision measurements in the near future. The Chinese Embassy in Berne has been informed on June 17, 2009.

Important note: An identical sun-moon-earth constellation as will occur during the total solar eclipse on 22 July 2009, only takes place every 1,507 years according to the calculations and statements of Dr. Hans Weber, known as the Martin’s Hole expert.

www.rqm.ch/earthquake_warnings_with_magnitu1.htm

www.crystalinks.com/jimberkland.gif
Jim Berkland
Retired Geologist USGS
50+ publications in Geology Listed in 8 Who’s Who publications, including Who’s Who in America
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Berkland

Over the phone, Jim told me he believes there is a strong possibility of a quake in Japan between July 22nd and July 28th.


As far as the opinion from the scientists goes its at 1 against, and 2 for a quake with the July 22nd 2009 eclipse
#49
07/06/2009 (3:37 pm)
Please forgive my meanderings

I noticed one particular correlation which I've intentionally not focused on because it does not happen to be in the same region as the July 22 2009 eclipse. I've noticed a very strong correlation in Europe, the Middle East and India as well as China.

August 11 1999
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1999Aug11T.GIF
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1999.php

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/cyprus1999.jpg
Quote:
1999 AUG 11 04 27 55.3 34.791 N 32.939 E 33 N 5.1 5.4 1.2 234
CYPRUS REGION. Mw 5.6 (HRV). Mo=2.9*10**17 Nm (HRV). At
least 15 people injured, 32 buildings damaged (VII) and
landslides in the Limassol area. At least 50 buildings
damaged in other parts of Cyprus. Felt (V) at Nicosia,
(IV) at Larnaca and (III) at Paphos. Also felt in Egypt,
Lebanon and Syria.

I'm adding this one in because I mentioned it in the beginning. I'm tracking stats from various countries and I keep seeing Cyprus. So here is the Cyprus data. Like all the others that happen on the same day... its about 6 hours before the eclipse. Again... I think its related to the tidal forces. The earth rotates faster than the moon orbits. So the tidal water is actually in front of the moons path, rolling back toward the gravitational pull of the moon.

The point of this blog post is to raise enough evidence to support the theory. Once we are in agreement, we (as a group of nations) should fund a simulator project. I'll volunteer to build it for 1% of all the research money we currently spend on trying to predict earthquakes. Japan alone spends about a billion dollars.
#50
07/08/2009 (10:48 am)
Less than two weeks to go

I'm feeling a bit anxious, and a bit guilty that I have not done all that I can do to alert the Japanese or raise an awareness of the possibility of a problem in Japan. Up till now I've felt that I should wait and see what happens.

I've been thinking that if someone in Japan predicted a quake here in the United States, and if he felt he was right, I'd expect him to try to warn us. As we get closer to the deadline on July 22nd, I'm getting an overwhelming sense of guilt that I'm not doing all that I can to help warn the Japanese. I'm pretty sure that they will experience a significant quake in the Tokai region sometime between July 22nd and July 30th.

I'm trying to make some posts on the Japanese wikipedia site or the yahoo blog site that I find when I google the following kanji chacters I've posted here on this blog: 日本の地震と津波の予測2009年7月22日 it means "Japanese earthquake and tsunami predicted on July 22nd 2009."

I figure if I can link in some pictures on this blog they will speak for themselves. Anyone speak Japanese? Anyone care to help post a link on a Japanese site?

#51
07/08/2009 (11:59 am)
Its all about the cubed root

Light and gravity have a lot in common. They both follow the basic universal laws governed by 3 dimensional space. The effects of light and gravity dissipate with the cubed root of the distance. For example a mountain several miles away will not be illuminated by the flash on your camera at night. Your camera will greatly enhance anything at 3 feet, less at 9 feet, and just about nothing at about 3 cubed or 27 feet.

Gravity works the same way. The size and distance of the object determines how much of a gravitational effect it has. It leaves us with only two major players. The sun and the moon. The rest of the planets don't have much pull on the earth at all. We can see this in our tides.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_tide#Range_variation:_springs_and_neaps

Quote:
Thus, the tidal force depends not on the strength of the gravitational field of the Moon, but on its gradient (which falls off approximately as the inverse cube of the distance to the originating gravitational body). The gravitational force exerted on the Earth by the Sun is on average 179 times stronger than that exerted on the Earth by the Moon, but because the Sun is on average 389 times farther from the Earth, the gradient of its field is weaker. The tidal force produced by the Sun is therefore only 46% as large as that produced by the Moon. (According to NASA the tidal force of the Moon is 2.21 times larger than that of the Sun. The effect of the other planets is much, much smaller, with the largest being Venus at 0.000113 times that of the Sun.)

Ed Oberg brought up an interesting question. What about the entire galaxy? How much pull does the entire milky way have on earth?
#52
07/08/2009 (9:32 pm)
Quote:I'm feeling a bit anxious, and a bit guilty that I have not done all that I can do to alert the Japanese or raise an awareness of the possibility of a problem in Japan. Up till now I've felt that I should wait and see what happens.

If it is possible to detect real time movements of faults (both on longitudinal and vertical axis) by satellite system in near future, can we receive better warning of the possible earth quakes based on those results? I have heard one Japanese team came to our country to study our fault situations located in northern parts of the country, but heard no result from that kind of study until now.
It's just my guess, if it is possible to detect real time movements of faults, we can have more chance to save people and dangerous facilities. May be few days or fews hours ahead of huge disasters ?
#53
07/08/2009 (10:13 pm)
Quote:I'm feeling a bit anxious, and a bit guilty that I have not done all that I can do to alert the Japanese or raise an awareness of the possibility of a problem in Japan. Up till now I've felt that I should wait and see what happens.

If it is possible to detect real time movements of faults (both on longitudinal and vertical axis) by satellite system in near future, can we receive better warning of the possible earth quakes based on those results? I have heard one Japanese team came to our country to study our fault situations located in northern parts of the country, but heard no result from that kind of study until now.
It's just my guess, if it is possible to detect real time movements of faults, we can have more chance to save people and dangerous facilities. May be few days or fews hours ahead of huge disasters ?
#54
07/09/2009 (10:27 pm)
Very interesting theory and what a prediction Britton! It recalls me an age-old prediction of the sleeping prophet Edgar Cayce:

"The Earth will be broken up in the western portion of America. The greater portion of Japan must go into the sea...."

I fear the worst but hope for best.
#55
07/10/2009 (8:50 am)
@U Wim Naing, they do have early warning systems in place for a Tsunami. These warnings go out after an earthquake is detected.

@Nilhan Uduwarage, This whole post was to stimulate a discussion on using a modern game engine to build a simulator to test a theory. I really wanted to keep it limited to game developers. As it stands its gotten out of hand, I'm afraid I've created my own urban legend.

Update from Jim Berkland
I spoke to Jim Berkland for about 30 minutes over the phone today. He agrees there is a strong potential for an earthquake in Japan between July 22nd - July 28th. He said its not known why a delay may be expected for an earthquake after an eclipse. But his research shows its usually a period of about 6 days.

I asked him about the idea of minor changes in moon orbit. the idea being the moons position has not changed much the following day. The day after a solar eclipse the moon is only 1/30th of the way around in its orbit. If you take 360 degrees of a circle and look at the lunar orbit of 29.5 days then the moon moves about 360/29.5 or 12.2 degrees a day away from the sun. He said that is a possible explanation.

He emphasized the importance of perigee (when the moon is closest to earth in its orbit). He stated flatly that its all about the gravitational pull, and the cubed root of the distance between the earth and the moon. This pull has an effect on the tides, the earth its self, and in the ground water, and yes even beneath the surface of the earth.

He sends his earthquake predictions to subscribers at his site, and then posts the results on his website after the fact. In my opinion, this is a good way to avoid blame for causing fear and panic in the general public.

No more posts on the subject
I really think there is something to this theory, what has been bothering me the whole time, is that I do not have the expertise in this particular field of study. If you take a look at my credentials, I'm a good computer programmer, and I can understand the basics behind game engine physics. Its quite a leap to apply this to the real world.

I was "googling" today and this one blog post is raising fear and panic in regions that can't possibly be affected.

Remember, I'm not qualified to make this prediction. I have not even built the simulator yet. This whole thing is theoretical. I've been engaged with other individuals and sharing theories via email. But all of this will have to wait until after July 30th, when I can be sure there is something to this or not.

If you are in this region from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 don't be alarmed or do anything out of the ordinary. There is no reason for panic. I'm happy that I may have helped contribute to raising the awareness of what I consider to be a real phenomenon. But, this is not a real warning. I believe that we will have a quake in Japan, but that is my personal belief and its not backed by anything but theory. My prediction is based on pure theory and some research, it does not yet have the backing of a simulated computer model.

No one can predict an earthquake or a tsunami (with 100% certainty). That is a true statement for today. I think that will change in the future, that we will gain enough insight and understanding that it will be predictable. I also firmly believe that calculation of pressure in the plates and the gravitational forces (of the sun and moon) will be part of the equation.

But, its simply not possible to accurately (and confidently with absolute certainty) predict this event (quake and tsumami) with what we have today.


#56
07/10/2009 (7:05 pm)
OK, sorry about my sudden appearance, it was just a reaction to the email i got and may this be my last activity here.

But would like let you to know that this has already started creating panic around the world by the chain email. Nevertheless, I'm also a software engineer (not into games though) and think your theory is really interesting.
#57
07/10/2009 (11:05 pm)
@Nilhan Uduwarage, no problem. Thanks, I understand your desire to post here and I will happily discuss it with you after July 30th. My comments about things getting out of hand are not directed toward you.

I got the idea from watching a sightings episode on the sci-fi channel which featured Jim Berkland (page3). After watching a discovery channel program on how the moon was formed (all linked on page 1) I thought a game simulator was in order.

Before I spent any time on it I wanted some feedback, to make sure the idea was valid. The first post here: www.garagegames.com/blogs/16018/15933 got zero responses.

So I made a prediction using the theory (with this post) to get a better response. Well, the prediction part to get a response worked a little too well, and I got far more responses than I ever dreamed of. I never expected a chain email to be sent out.

The responses I got seemed to completely miss the point. The theory was immediately discounted, the scientific community just totally dismissed the possibility all together. That's when I knew I was on to something. The current thinking in the scientific community is that earthquakes cannot be predicted. So they've basically given up. Here is a natural phenomenon that could have an effect, that can be predicted. My natural response was to look for supporting evidence. I think this may have added more fuel to the fire. When people said there was no correlation or historical evidence I went looking for it.

As the date approaches I don't want real fear and panic. So I'm not going to link any more supporting evidence, and simply point out that as far as my work here is concerned this is really nothing more than a theory. And its just a theory, I can't compute a probability. Its just guess work on my part.
#58
07/14/2009 (8:15 pm)
Quote:The responses I got seemed to completely miss the point. The theory was immediately discounted, the scientific community just totally dismissed the possibility all together. That's when I knew I was on to something. The current thinking in the scientific community is that earthquakes cannot be predicted. So they've basically given up. Here is a natural phenomenon that could have an effect, that can be predicted. My natural response was to look for supporting evidence. I think this may have added more fuel to the fire. When people said there was no correlation or historical evidence I went looking for it.
Anyhow, you have done the great job, Mr. Britton.
I am just wishing and praying that not to show up all evidences for your prediction; that might have appeared after all lives near that area or areas may have gone by something happened during 22nd July eclipse.
I just shared this prediction to some of my friends and say " Hey! just stay alert at home or a office, and that's all I can tell ! But don't let people panic ! Let them know how to prepare for natural disasters like Cyclone Nargis, we were hit by last year and lost huge amount of lives"
I don't really wish that your prediction comes true but as the days come closer, next week Wednesday - third week of the month of July, but I really want to know if an earthquakes can be predicted by any theories or not; which's not accepted nor agreed by scientists.
#59
07/15/2009 (2:12 pm)
@U Win Naing, I hope that something happens to support the theory and raise an awareness to the point it can not be ignored. I also hope no one gets hurt.

As it stands I'm having a really difficult time keeping quiet until after July 30th, but I think is the right thing to do. At this point I'm more afraid of the damage that can be caused by fear and panic, than by an earthquake or tsunami.

I will say I have started developing the simulator and I should have some interesting videos to upload from the simulator in the next month or so.
#60
07/15/2009 (7:27 pm)
Update from Ole, I'm posting it because it will probably have a calming effect, which is what I'd prefer at this point.

static.myopera.com/upic/pool1/Cg/IAV/pN1XqRynokc2qtT9lAQkZc/207468_l.jpg
Ole Nielsen
Computational Scientist at Geoscience Australia
my.opera.com/nielsol/blog/2009/07/14/solar-eclipses-and-earthquakes

Quote:
As I have been directly asked, I would like to point out that in my view there is no scientific evidence to support the rumour that an earthquake-tsunami in South East Asia or Japan linked to the solar eclipse on 22 July 2009 will occur.

“That a Tokai Earthquake could occur at any moment” as I wrote in a post here already a couple of years ago is another matter, but putting a specific date to it for whatever reason is going too far. So far scientists have not found (or proved) any statistically significant correlation between solar eclipses and earthquakes.


www.earthobservatory.sg/news/2009/20090415-July22-Tsunami-Hoax/index.php