Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 600 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
The next Tokai Quake in Japan will most likely take place on July 08 2012. The prediction was made on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. The prediction is based on equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series and the related extreme tidal pressure on subducted tectonic plates. We do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan on May 20 2012. However it is the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 and its saros series 140 that is predicted to trigger the earthquake.
NASA Solar Eclipse Images May 2012
Below are the results of the database query. We looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. We found the following historic earthquakes, looked at the quake cycle and calculated the prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the historic eclipse to predict the next earthquake.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
It is possible that calculating the build up of force between the plates and taking account of the tidal pressures from the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
The tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year.
Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan's shore.
The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? Based on previous the previous track record in this blog it is about a 20% chance. However we firmly believe we have an 80% chance of a 6.0 or greater on or about July 8th in the region. The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
View Stats
The next Tokai Quake in Japan will most likely take place on July 08 2012. The prediction was made on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. The prediction is based on equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series and the related extreme tidal pressure on subducted tectonic plates. We do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan on May 20 2012. However it is the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 and its saros series 140 that is predicted to trigger the earthquake.
NASA Solar Eclipse Images May 2012
Below are the results of the database query. We looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. We found the following historic earthquakes, looked at the quake cycle and calculated the prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the historic eclipse to predict the next earthquake.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
It is possible that calculating the build up of force between the plates and taking account of the tidal pressures from the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
The tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year.
Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan's shore.
The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? Based on previous the previous track record in this blog it is about a 20% chance. However we firmly believe we have an 80% chance of a 6.0 or greater on or about July 8th in the region. The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
"Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
#562
July 7, 2009
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEplot/LEplot2001/LE2009Jul07N.pdf
Quake 2009/11/05 17:32 6.2 125 23.79N 120.72E, i.e. 13.7 km SSE of Nantou City
August 6, 2009
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEplot/LEplot2001/LE2009Aug06N.pdf
Quake 2009/12/19 21:02 6.9 144 23.79N 121.66E, i.e. 21.4 km SSE of Hualien City
Please note these are not on the Richter Scale, it is a different system used in Taiwan, and the system they use marks them at a higher magnitude than what the Richter Scale would. However, keep in mind that the intensity of both of these quakes were quite significant. The quake data was taken from the CWB website in Taiwan.
Sorry the research for moon phase and ocean wave height needs more research. not sure I will have time to look at it or not.
10/27/2011 (12:49 pm)
These are the ones that past near Taiwan.July 7, 2009
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEplot/LEplot2001/LE2009Jul07N.pdf
Quake 2009/11/05 17:32 6.2 125 23.79N 120.72E, i.e. 13.7 km SSE of Nantou City
August 6, 2009
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEplot/LEplot2001/LE2009Aug06N.pdf
Quake 2009/12/19 21:02 6.9 144 23.79N 121.66E, i.e. 21.4 km SSE of Hualien City
Please note these are not on the Richter Scale, it is a different system used in Taiwan, and the system they use marks them at a higher magnitude than what the Richter Scale would. However, keep in mind that the intensity of both of these quakes were quite significant. The quake data was taken from the CWB website in Taiwan.
Sorry the research for moon phase and ocean wave height needs more research. not sure I will have time to look at it or not.
#563
June 16th 2011 was the last lunar eclipse here, so... based on 2009 data, the quake should have already occurred. Hmmmmm Or will be occurring in the next few weeks. So far though I have not really gotten much of a signal for anything so significant. Though I have had some light ear tones..
10/27/2011 (12:54 pm)
June 16th 2011 was the last lunar eclipse here, so... based on 2009 data, the quake should have already occurred. Hmmmmm Or will be occurring in the next few weeks. So far though I have not really gotten much of a signal for anything so significant. Though I have had some light ear tones..
#564
10/28/2011 (6:45 am)
I have just received a fairly significant ear tone, something 5+ might just be on the way between now and Nov. 7.
#565
If Jim Berkland is correct and whale beachings are related to a magnetic disturbance before a quake there may be a connection. Just curios to see what the magnetic field readings are like in Taiwan.
articles.latimes.com/2003/sep/29/health/he-maincapsule29
ezinearticles.com/?Electrical-Fields-Aggravating-Tinnitus&id=2057240
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1769924
ufozone.ning.com/forum/topics/is-the-ear-ringing-many-of-us
Google Scientific Article Links
10/31/2011 (1:52 pm)
Seneq, do you also experience some dizziness with your ear tones? There have been some conflicting reports regarding tinnitus and electro-magenteic field disturbances.If Jim Berkland is correct and whale beachings are related to a magnetic disturbance before a quake there may be a connection. Just curios to see what the magnetic field readings are like in Taiwan.
articles.latimes.com/2003/sep/29/health/he-maincapsule29
ezinearticles.com/?Electrical-Fields-Aggravating-Tinnitus&id=2057240
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1769924
ufozone.ning.com/forum/topics/is-the-ear-ringing-many-of-us
Google Scientific Article Links
#566
Interestingly, here are two recent results from Taiwan.
Origin time(Taiwan time) Magnitude(ML) Earthquake No. Location
10/31/2011 23:17 5.1 148 24.87N 121.97E, i.e. 26.3 km NE of Yilan County
10/30/2011 11:23 6.5 147 25.29N 123.14E, i.e. 141.4 km E of Keelung City
from http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/content01.htm
The one on 10/30 was sent via the USGS website as a 5.5. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usb0006ggh.php
The 10/31 quake wasn't big enough for the USGS to print, so I suspect it was under a 4.
Again the systems used to measure quakes between the US and Taiwan are different.
I cannot be sure if these are the result of the lunar eclipse or not, they would seem not large enough however, the time frame looks just a little be delayed. So it is hard to tell. And there could be another one on the way.
As to your question about dizziness, occasionally with quakes here I will feel dizzy, but usually only for the really big ones, such like that occured above, it is like someone smacks me across the face, it's like a slapping sound in my ears and I feel as if I will pass out, and I do black out for a millisecond. I have not really kept track very well of the dizziness of them, but yes sometimes I do have this feeling. Another interesting happening was back in 2007 I think, if you recall there were two fairly large earthquakes in Japan, around 6.5 on the Northwest open ocean, just opposite of Tokyo, I think it was 2007. A week before those two quakes I even went to the hospital because I thought I was having a TIA. Nothing was found, and until today I am not exactely sure what happened. In recent years I have had numberous dizzy spells prior to large global earthquakes, I feel like a pile of you know what 1-3 days before these quakes, but I can't determine any locations, I just know something is going to happen. This has started to occur for anything aorund 5.5 or above.
I have not had a chance to look over the links you posted, but will do so shortly. I am not sure where to find the magnetic field readings in Taiwan, I will see if I find them, maybe they are public records, we'll see. Maybe the CWB website even has them listed..
10/31/2011 (6:56 pm)
Hi Britton,Interestingly, here are two recent results from Taiwan.
Origin time(Taiwan time) Magnitude(ML) Earthquake No. Location
10/31/2011 23:17 5.1 148 24.87N 121.97E, i.e. 26.3 km NE of Yilan County
10/30/2011 11:23 6.5 147 25.29N 123.14E, i.e. 141.4 km E of Keelung City
from http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/content01.htm
The one on 10/30 was sent via the USGS website as a 5.5. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usb0006ggh.php
The 10/31 quake wasn't big enough for the USGS to print, so I suspect it was under a 4.
Again the systems used to measure quakes between the US and Taiwan are different.
I cannot be sure if these are the result of the lunar eclipse or not, they would seem not large enough however, the time frame looks just a little be delayed. So it is hard to tell. And there could be another one on the way.
As to your question about dizziness, occasionally with quakes here I will feel dizzy, but usually only for the really big ones, such like that occured above, it is like someone smacks me across the face, it's like a slapping sound in my ears and I feel as if I will pass out, and I do black out for a millisecond. I have not really kept track very well of the dizziness of them, but yes sometimes I do have this feeling. Another interesting happening was back in 2007 I think, if you recall there were two fairly large earthquakes in Japan, around 6.5 on the Northwest open ocean, just opposite of Tokyo, I think it was 2007. A week before those two quakes I even went to the hospital because I thought I was having a TIA. Nothing was found, and until today I am not exactely sure what happened. In recent years I have had numberous dizzy spells prior to large global earthquakes, I feel like a pile of you know what 1-3 days before these quakes, but I can't determine any locations, I just know something is going to happen. This has started to occur for anything aorund 5.5 or above.
I have not had a chance to look over the links you posted, but will do so shortly. I am not sure where to find the magnetic field readings in Taiwan, I will see if I find them, maybe they are public records, we'll see. Maybe the CWB website even has them listed..
#567
Score 1 point for the new method. I got my Tulsa Oklahoma quake. Predicted 2 months in advance.
Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time
* Sunday, November 06, 2011 at 03:53:10 UTC
* Saturday, November 05, 2011 at 10:53:10 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 35.537N, 96.747W
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles)
Region OKLAHOMA
Distances
* 8 km (5 miles) NW (317) from Prague, OK
* 10 km (6 miles) SE (141) from Sparks, OK
* 14 km (9 miles) ENE (72) from Meeker, OK
* 72 km (44 miles) E (85) from Oklahoma City, OK
* 304 km (189 miles) N (1) from Dallas, TX
11/08/2011 (7:05 pm)
Quote:
09/05/2011 (9:57 pm)
Marilyn,
Well, I have new method I'm working on.
I'm trying to predict the land based intra-plate quakes. So far it looks like quakes in Boston MA and near Tulsa OK. Less than a 6.0 but enough to get attention. This new theory is based on larger plate tectonic movements.
Score 1 point for the new method. I got my Tulsa Oklahoma quake. Predicted 2 months in advance.
Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time
* Sunday, November 06, 2011 at 03:53:10 UTC
* Saturday, November 05, 2011 at 10:53:10 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 35.537N, 96.747W
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles)
Region OKLAHOMA
Distances
* 8 km (5 miles) NW (317) from Prague, OK
* 10 km (6 miles) SE (141) from Sparks, OK
* 14 km (9 miles) ENE (72) from Meeker, OK
* 72 km (44 miles) E (85) from Oklahoma City, OK
* 304 km (189 miles) N (1) from Dallas, TX
#568
Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 6.9
Date-Time
Tuesday, November 08, 2011 at 02:59:06 UTC
Tuesday, November 08, 2011 at 11:59:06 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 27.291°N, 125.868°E
Depth 209.5 km (130.2 miles)
Region NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
Distances
215 km (133 miles) NW of Naha, Okinawa, Japan
361 km (224 miles) NNE of Ishigaki-jima, Ryukyu Islands, Japan
500 km (310 miles) ENE of TAIPEI, Taiwan
1144 km (710 miles) S of SEOUL, South Korea
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 14.2 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 12.7 km (7.9 miles)
Parameters
NST= 81, Nph= 90, Dmin=243.8 km, Rmss=1.34 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb0006lpm
11/08/2011 (7:09 pm)
In addition Britton here it is: A 6.9 NE of Taiwan yesturday morning. I did not feel it, but from the USGS maps it appears that some people did. It was far enough away that few felt it here as well as being pretty deep.Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 6.9
Date-Time
Tuesday, November 08, 2011 at 02:59:06 UTC
Tuesday, November 08, 2011 at 11:59:06 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 27.291°N, 125.868°E
Depth 209.5 km (130.2 miles)
Region NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
Distances
215 km (133 miles) NW of Naha, Okinawa, Japan
361 km (224 miles) NNE of Ishigaki-jima, Ryukyu Islands, Japan
500 km (310 miles) ENE of TAIPEI, Taiwan
1144 km (710 miles) S of SEOUL, South Korea
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 14.2 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 12.7 km (7.9 miles)
Parameters
NST= 81, Nph= 90, Dmin=243.8 km, Rmss=1.34 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb0006lpm
#569
New Method... Massive quakes 7.0+ in California and Alaska (Around Anchorage) in December.
11/08/2011 (7:27 pm)
Here is what the old method predicted for the next couple of months.Predicted Origin Quake Saros Mag Lat Long Yrs NBR Region ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2011-11-09 1975-10-18 123 6.7 70.84 53.69 36 8 RUSSIA: NOVAYA ZEMLYA; JOENSUU; FINLAND 2011-11-12 1975-10-21 123 6.5 73.35 55.08 36 8 OSTROV NOVAYA ZEMLYA 2011-12-09 1953-02-12 123 6.4 35.4 55.1 6 41 IRAN: TORUD 2011-12-11 1917-01-24 123 6.3 31.3 116.2 74 14 CHINA: ANHUI PROVINCE: 2011-12-17 1290-09-27 123 6.8 41.5 119.3 35 22 CHINA: NEI MONGOL: NINGCHENG 2011-12-22 1975-11-29 123 7.1 19.33 -155.0 5 12 HAWAII 2011-12-22 1975-11-29 123 7.2 19.33 -155.0 5 12 HAWAII 2011-12-28 1993-12-16 135 6.1 53.80 171.38 5 18 Bering Sea 2011-12-29 1993-12-16 123 6.1 53.80 171.38 5 18 Bering Sea 2011-12-30 1962-08-19 135 6.4 44.68 81.58 6 24 CHINA: XINJIANG 2012-01-09 1935-03-05 123 6.0 36.3 53.3 5 38 IRAN: ALBORZ 2012-01-12 1962-09-01 135 7.2 35.63 49.87 5 38 IRAN: BUYIN-ZAHRA
New Method... Massive quakes 7.0+ in California and Alaska (Around Anchorage) in December.
#570
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/OH/OH2011.html#LE2011Dec10T
12/06/2011 (8:07 pm)
A total lunar eclipse will take place on December 10, 2011.http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/OH/OH2011.html#LE2011Dec10T
#571
12/08/2011 (4:58 am)
Did you see the theory on the guy that predicts volcano eruptions? It is very interesting. I wonder if a similar method could be used to enhance your current theory with quakes. There are probably some similarities. I think the volcano theory used sound to determine pressure build up. I cannot remember exactly. I don't know if the data is available, but a global map showing vibration data from all the places they are available could help with predictions I would think. A 3D model of the planet that gets updated showing color to indicate vibration activity might be interesting if cross referenced to lunar cycles.
#572
Typically we see a series of small quakes before a big one. I'm seeing this type of activity in Hawaii now.
12/23/2011 (12:32 pm)
@Frank, No I did not see the theory on predicting volcanic eruptions. Could you post the link please?Typically we see a series of small quakes before a big one. I'm seeing this type of activity in Hawaii now.
#573
Atmospheric tides and associated magnetic effects
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1964/RG002i002p00275.shtml
01/04/2012 (2:58 pm)
Well, big fat zero for this round of predictions. Back to the old drawing board. Minor quakes (less than 6 on the Richter scale don't count)Atmospheric tides and associated magnetic effects
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1964/RG002i002p00275.shtml
#574
01/04/2012 (7:40 pm)
Well sorry to hear that Britton. I still believe you are on to something, there is a relationship, it is just going to take more time to find it. We had another eclipse here in December and will have another one I think early this year, will be watching again for the relationship of how many months it takes for the bigger ones to occur.
#575
Its stuff like this that drives me crazy. It can't be a coincidence. Its too close, the magnitude is wrong, but the location is with in a few miles, and a the time is off only by a day or two.
Actual...
Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time
* Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 17:08:01 UTC
* Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 08:38:01 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 36.226N, 52.767E
Depth 20.1 km (12.5 miles)
Region NORTHERN IRAN
Distances 45 km (27 miles) SE of Amol, Iran
73 km (45 miles) ESE of Sari, Iran
91 km (56 miles) NW of Semnan, Iran
136 km (84 miles) ENE of TEHRAN, Iran
Below a 6.0 does not count. We need to be able to predict the big ones, and be right.
www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gkhtMPr9bHdTmY9OUKTt5udF-7-A?docId=a0...
01/18/2012 (2:22 am)
Predicted Origin Quake Saros Mag Lat Long Yrs NBR Region ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2012-01-09 1935-03-05 123 6.0 36.3 53.3 5 38 IRAN: ALBORZ 2012-01-12 1962-09-01 135 7.2 35.63 49.87 5 38 IRAN: BUYIN-ZAHRA
Its stuff like this that drives me crazy. It can't be a coincidence. Its too close, the magnitude is wrong, but the location is with in a few miles, and a the time is off only by a day or two.
Actual...
Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time
* Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 17:08:01 UTC
* Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 08:38:01 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 36.226N, 52.767E
Depth 20.1 km (12.5 miles)
Region NORTHERN IRAN
Distances 45 km (27 miles) SE of Amol, Iran
73 km (45 miles) ESE of Sari, Iran
91 km (56 miles) NW of Semnan, Iran
136 km (84 miles) ENE of TEHRAN, Iran
Below a 6.0 does not count. We need to be able to predict the big ones, and be right.
www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gkhtMPr9bHdTmY9OUKTt5udF-7-A?docId=a0...
#576
It was a very very close one.
As you said, you will be able to make big predictions soon to help people prepared safely to avoid this kind of disaster.
I am not a scientist or a skillful programer but I really appreciate what you have done to reach to a specific goal for all of us on this planet.
I am very sad that I can't discuss anything here but I can only encourage for your great job to go on.
01/21/2012 (5:07 am)
Hi Britton, I have to congratulate you anyhow!It was a very very close one.
As you said, you will be able to make big predictions soon to help people prepared safely to avoid this kind of disaster.
I am not a scientist or a skillful programer but I really appreciate what you have done to reach to a specific goal for all of us on this planet.
I am very sad that I can't discuss anything here but I can only encourage for your great job to go on.
#577
#1 - Recent developments: Research published placing a 70% prob that a 7+ quake will hit Tokyo by 2016. http://on.wsj.com/zBEsgu
I've been in Tokyo for three months, and this past week I've noticed activity outside of what I normally observe. Was woken up by a 5.x quake this morning at 7:45, epicenter at Mt. Fuji. Hence this comment I presume.
#2 - Recommendation: I have not read all comments so if you're doing this already forgive me. Are you only looking at the linear correlation?
I think your methodology is close, and probably dead on we could remove the noise. If I could get a good data set for each of the inputs (lunar activity and quake activity etc) for, let's say, 200 years, I would also look at correlations with the time axis adjusted (shifted, bent, or collapsed/condensed).
I've written software for this(in trading/finance) and found the results astonishing. Seeing a best-fit alignment of all the inputs can point you in the right direction and often-times eliminates the noise and false positives.
Thanks for all your work again and hope to help in any way I can.
Chris
01/27/2012 (7:11 pm)
Britton - Thanks for your work in this. 1) I have some recent developments to share that may spark your interest and 2) I would like to make one recommendation if not already taken into consolidation#1 - Recent developments: Research published placing a 70% prob that a 7+ quake will hit Tokyo by 2016. http://on.wsj.com/zBEsgu
I've been in Tokyo for three months, and this past week I've noticed activity outside of what I normally observe. Was woken up by a 5.x quake this morning at 7:45, epicenter at Mt. Fuji. Hence this comment I presume.
#2 - Recommendation: I have not read all comments so if you're doing this already forgive me. Are you only looking at the linear correlation?
I think your methodology is close, and probably dead on we could remove the noise. If I could get a good data set for each of the inputs (lunar activity and quake activity etc) for, let's say, 200 years, I would also look at correlations with the time axis adjusted (shifted, bent, or collapsed/condensed).
I've written software for this(in trading/finance) and found the results astonishing. Seeing a best-fit alignment of all the inputs can point you in the right direction and often-times eliminates the noise and false positives.
Thanks for all your work again and hope to help in any way I can.
Chris
#578
Yes that would be very helpful. I've run queries based off of the lunar perigee and syzygy.
www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html
When I look at the data based on eclipse and perigee globally across all the time in my database I did not see any correlation. The only correlation of any significance seemed to be a greater number of magnitude 7 quakes in November.
When I looked at the data for specific regions based on eclipse and perigee (Japan and Taiwan especially) I did see a correlation. I was not alone...
Scientific paper supporting theory.
When I looked at global data combined with lunar saros data I did see a correlation. I could send you or post some sample queries and results in this blog for you to analyze. I'd like to see what you think.
I see two potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
Its not Tokyo, but its potentially big enough to be felt in Tokyo.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycle of about 150 years... It looks like the Tokai quake is due. 34 Days after this 140 saros lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee at 362361 km from earth. I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time.
Whats the likely hood of an 8.3? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region.
01/28/2012 (9:05 pm)
@Chris,Yes that would be very helpful. I've run queries based off of the lunar perigee and syzygy.
www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html
When I look at the data based on eclipse and perigee globally across all the time in my database I did not see any correlation. The only correlation of any significance seemed to be a greater number of magnitude 7 quakes in November.
When I looked at the data for specific regions based on eclipse and perigee (Japan and Taiwan especially) I did see a correlation. I was not alone...
Scientific paper supporting theory.
When I looked at global data combined with lunar saros data I did see a correlation. I could send you or post some sample queries and results in this blog for you to analyze. I'd like to see what you think.
I see two potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2013-12-16 117 1099-02-22 8.4 33 135.5 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2014-05-02 148 1707-10-28 8.4 33.2 134.8 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2015-01-20 132 1605-02-03 7.9 33 134.9 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2015-06-03 120 1361-08-03 8.4 33 135 JAPAN: NANKAIDO 2016-11-19 114 1498-09-20 8.6 34 138.1 JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-02 114 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
Its not Tokyo, but its potentially big enough to be felt in Tokyo.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycle of about 150 years... It looks like the Tokai quake is due. 34 Days after this 140 saros lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee at 362361 km from earth. I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time.
Whats the likely hood of an 8.3? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region.
#579
The database also predicted major quakes in the Kermadec Islands and in Peru for February and March. I'm still working on the new algorithm, so I'm thinking of limiting my predictions.
Interesting to note the December / January perihelion Saros 140 combination. I wonder if we did not already have the Tokai quake in 1944. It looks like the Tokai finger print (if earthquakes had fingers). It is very near the Tokai quake region and looks like it may have impacted the same system of fault lines.
I will also post the New Zealand Quake my database is predicting for february. It seems a likely candidate based on my new model.
02/01/2012 (12:40 pm)
Here is the complete list of Magnitude 7 quakes and greater my database predicted this year for Japan in the Tokai general area.PREDICTED_DATE SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
The database also predicted major quakes in the Kermadec Islands and in Peru for February and March. I'm still working on the new algorithm, so I'm thinking of limiting my predictions.
Interesting to note the December / January perihelion Saros 140 combination. I wonder if we did not already have the Tokai quake in 1944. It looks like the Tokai finger print (if earthquakes had fingers). It is very near the Tokai quake region and looks like it may have impacted the same system of fault lines.
I will also post the New Zealand Quake my database is predicting for february. It seems a likely candidate based on my new model.
PREDICTED_DATE: 2012-02-24 ORIGIN_QUAKE_DATE: 1989-05-23 ORIGIN_ECLIPSE: 1989-08-17 DAYS BEFORE: 86 SAROS: 128 MAGNITUDE: 8.2 LATITUDE: -52.3 LONGITUDE: 160.56 YEARS_PAST: 23 NUMBER_OFQUAKES: 4 REGION: MACQUARIE ISLAND: NEW ZEALAND
#580
In my opinion all you really need to do is look at the solar lunar tidal forces (have you noticed 90% of all the tectonic plates are under water?) and account for the time between earthquakes in a historic database.
I'll go with Arthur C Clark's 3 laws.
02/07/2012 (5:12 pm)
Why have I spent 3 years predicting quakes as a hobby? Well... here is why. 1996 paper on why earth quakes cannot be predictedQuote:R. J. Geller is at the Department of Earth and Planetary Physics, Faculty of Science, Tokyo University...
Earthquake prediction [HN5-7] is usually defined as the specification of the time, location, and magnitude [HN8-9] of a future earthquake within stated limits. Prediction would have to be reliable (few false alarms and few failures) and accurate (small ranges of uncertainty in space, time, and magnitude) to justify the cost of response. Previous Perspectives in Science may have given a favorable impression of prediction research, and the news media and some optimistic scientists encourage the belief that earthquakes can be predicted (1). Recent research suggests to us that this belief is incorrect.
An earthquake results from sudden slip on a geological fault. [HN10] Such fracture and failure [HN11-13] problems are notoriously intractable. The heterogeneous state of the Earth and the inaccessibility of the fault zone to direct measurement impose further difficulties. Except during a brief period in the 1970s (2), the leading seismological authorities of each era have generally concluded that earthquake prediction is not feasible (3). Richter [HN14-15], developer of the eponymous magnitude scale, commented as follows in 1977: "Journalists and the general public rush to any suggestion of earthquake prediction like hogs toward a full trough... [Prediction] provides a happy hunting ground for amateurs, cranks, and outright publicity-seeking fakers" This comment still holds true.
For large earthquakes to be predictable, they would have to be unusual events resulting from specific physical states. However, the consensus of a recent meeting was that the Earth is in a state of self-organized criticality where any small earthquake has some probability of cascading into a large event. This view is supported by the observation that the distribution of earthquake size (see figure) is invariant with respect to scale for all but the largest earthquakes. Such scale invariance is ubiquitous in self-organized critical systems (6). Whether any particular small earthquake grows into a large earthquake depends on a myriad of fine details of physical conditions throughout a large volume, not just in the immediate vicinity of the fault This highly sensitive nonlinear dependence of earthquake rupture on unknown initial conditions severely limits predictability. The prediction of individual large earthquakes would require the unlikely capability of knowing all of these details with great accuracy. Furthermore, no quantitative theory for analyzing these data to issue predictions exists at present. Thus, the consensus of the meeting was that individual earthquakes are probably inherently unpredictable.
In my opinion all you really need to do is look at the solar lunar tidal forces (have you noticed 90% of all the tectonic plates are under water?) and account for the time between earthquakes in a historic database.
I'll go with Arthur C Clark's 3 laws.
Quote:
Clarke's Three Laws are three "laws" of prediction formulated by the British writer and scientist Arthur C. Clarke. They are:
1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
seneq