Game Development Community

dev|Pro Game Development Curriculum

Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017

by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments

Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:

Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.

In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/NankaiTrough600_zps0d6060a0.jpg


The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm

"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."

Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43

Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.

PREDICTED    QUAKE_DATE   ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS  SAROS   MAG LAT     LONG       REGION
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016-11-19   1498-09-20   1498-12-13   -84   114   8.6   34      138.1    JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA
2016-11-19   1498-09-20   1498-12-13   -84   114   7.5   33.5    135.2    JAPAN: NANKAIDO
2017-04-01   1854-12-24   1854-11-20    34   140   8.3   33.20   135.60   JAPAN
2017-04-02   1854-12-24   1854-11-04    50   114   8.3   33.20   135.60   JAPAN

In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/stresstransfer.jpg

t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSzzE8ksa5HV0nMtxopKF2Af-SzqyCxasv5pigGYowRvsGtMJMpCQIJybQn

The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.

Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts

The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.

Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/JapanMarch2011-1.jpg

PREDICTED    ORIGIN       SAROS  MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-08   1916-04-21   118    7.8   33      141      JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU

Actual
DATE         SAROS   MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-11   118     9.0   38.30   142.37   JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU

The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.

P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained



----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------

Eclipse Earthquake Theory

What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.

The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.

Scientific Papers Backing the Theory

This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/

Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.

The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.

AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes

Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.

Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies

The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.

Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)

www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif


c.statcounter.com/4721611/0/4d33a7eb/0/View Stats
#21
05/06/2009 (4:28 pm)
Went back 50 years on the NASA Eclipse Site and found this list of Total Solar Eclipses around the region of the July 22nd Total Solar Eclipse. I'm going to see which ones had quakes with in 6 hours before or after the eclipse. And list them in a chart... then draw a single map with the eclipse path and the corresponding quake location.



Older quake data here:
www.data.scec.org/ftp/catalogs/SCSN/1955.catalog * Misread the Latitude longitude... This is only for CA

(1) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1955Jun20T.GIF
Need Quake Data for this region for 1955

(2) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1968Sep22T.GIF
Need Quake Data for this region for 1968

(3) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1974Jun20T.GIF
(no match) Number 3 is excluded .. does not cross any of the tectonic plates the July 22nd 2009 total solar eclipse does.

(4) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1976Oct23T.GIF
Need Quake Data for this region for 1976

(5) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1981Jul31T.GIF
No significant quake found

(6) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1983Jun11T.GIF
No significant quake found


(7) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1988Mar18T.GIF
Possible Match -6 Hrs
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1988.php

(8) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1995Oct24T.GIF
October 24th 1995 (closest to the July 22nd 2009 Path)
Possible Match -6 Hrs
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1995.php
www.data.scec.org/ftp/catalogs/SCSN/1995.catalog

(9) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot2001/SE2008Aug01T.GIF
Good match -1 Hr
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2008.php

I think we need at least a sample of at least 11 total solar eclipses in the region to have anything statistically significant. I'll keep looking for data on the others listed above.
#22
05/06/2009 (4:34 pm)
why restrict the historical search to one area ?
because it's earthquake-prone ?

ps, i think you forgot the slashes in the closing [ /url ] tags.
#23
05/06/2009 (4:38 pm)
@Orion,

Actually I'll do all the areas eventually (If we do get a quake in that region July 22nd 2009.) Also, it might vary region to region. Perhaps as you say... some regions are more earth quake prone. I picked the July 22nd 2009 Eclipse because it crossed so many plates, it just seems like common sense, better odds if you get more plates.

Just limited on time. Trying to focus on the eclipse data similar to the next Solar eclipse in July 22nd 2009. Please feel free to help!


c.statcounter.com/4721636/0/3117ab3b/0/View Stats
#24
05/06/2009 (10:41 pm)
I've decided to plot the quakes on October 24th 1995 first. It seems the closest to the path of the July 22nd 2009 Total Solar eclipse.

(8) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1995Oct24T.GIF
October 24th 1995 (closest to the July 22nd 2009 Path)
Possible Match -6 Hrs
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1995.php



Significant EQ.
DATE ORIGIN TIME GEOGRAPHIC DEPTH MAGNITUDES SD NO. REGION, CONTRIBUTED MAGNITUDES AND COMMENTS
UTC COORDINATES GS STA
HR MN SEC LAT LONG MB Msz USED

OCT 23 22 46 50.8 26.003 N 102.227 E 10 G 5.8 6.4 1.0 460 SICHUAN, CHINA. Mw 6.2 (GS), 6.2 (HRV). Me 6.5 (GS). Ms
6.1 (BRK). Mo=1.9*10**18 Nm (GS). Mo=2.2*10**18 Nm
(HRV). At least 81 people killed, 800 injured and
more than 200 houses damaged or destroyed in the Wuding
area. Felt strongly at Chuxiong, Dongchuan, Kunming,
Qujing, Zhaotong and many other parts of northern
Yunnan. Also felt in southwestern Sichuan, China and
in northern Vietnam.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/TSE1995Oct24.jpg
#25
05/06/2009 (11:24 pm)
Now for the March 18 1988 also 6 hours before the eclipse

(7) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1988Mar18T.GIF
Possible Match -6 Hrs
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1988.php

MAR 17 20 34 29.2 35.633 N 139.619 E 103 5.4 1.1 325
NEAR SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. Mo=3.1*10**17 Nm
(HRV). Ten people injured in the Tokyo area. Slight
damage (IV JMA) at Chiba, Kawaguchi-ko, Kumagaya,
Tateyama and Utsunomiya. Felt (III JMA) in the
Onahama-Choshi-Ajiro-Kofu area and on Oshima and
Miyake-jima. Felt (I JMA) from Hikone to Miyako and
on Hachijo-jima.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/TSE1988Mar18.jpg
#26
05/06/2009 (11:46 pm)
Now the Best Match Time Wise ... with in 1 hour of the eclipse... from last year.

(9) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot2001/SE2008Aug01T.GIF
Good match -1 Hr
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2008.php

AUG 01 08 32 43.6 32.033 N 104.722 E 11 G 5.7 0.7 522
SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA. MW 5.7 (GS), 5.7 (GCMT). mb
5.9 (GS). MS 5.6 (GS). ME 6.1 (GS). Mo 4.9*10**17 Nm (GS),
4.1*10**17 Nm (GCMT). Es 2.8*10**13 Nm (GS). At least 231 people
injured, 540 houses destroyed and 2,450 houses damaged in
Beichuan and Pingwu. Several landslides and rockfalls blocked
roads in Pingwu. Cellular phone service interrupted in Beichuan.
Felt (V) at Mianyang; (III) at Chengdu and Chongqing; (II) at
Xi'an. Also felt at Ankang, Baoji, Daxian, Deyang, Fuling,
Guangyuan, Hanzhong, Jiangyou, Lanzhou, Leshan, Luzhou,
Nanchong, Nanlong, Tianshui, Ya'an, Yanliang and Yibin.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/TSE2008Aug01.jpg
#27
05/13/2009 (3:50 pm)
I've been doing some reading on the subject. Quite frankly the scientific community seems to have completely given up on predicting earth quakes. In this article they pretty much leave it up to the "quacks" like me.

Quote:
Quake prediction is best left to the quacks, say the scientists.
Article here
geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_EQprediction.htm

I think computer programmers and game developers are pretty much the right people to build a quake simulation tool. We have not been jaded by the popular consensus of the scientific community.

The article gives you the insight as to why any valid earth scientist or seismologist will cringe when reading my post here. They consider this kind of thing pure "quackery" at its finest.

I'll be the first to admit I'm not qualified to do this sort of thing. But, the gravitation pull theory makes sense and I've found a few cases that seem to support it. I'm looking into building a simulator at the moment.

Building the first simulator
The first simulator will call a "cast ray" function to locations from a lunar and solar mesh model on a 3d earth mesh model. The earth model will have mount points for each tectonic plate. For simplicity the the tectonic plates will not have any associated physics.

castRay(startPos, startPos - dir * 2.5 * pos, mask, &collision)

I'll feed in orbit data for the moon and earth and let the simulator detect when the sun and moon pull together on the same plate. I'll do this by calling a cast ray function from the center of the sun and moon models to the center of the earth model. A second cast will be made from the sun to the moon. When the sun's two cast ray function meet (like the hands on a clock) then we have a match, if the second cast ray does not pass through the earth model first. (The cast ray function is built into the TGE (T3D) and can be called in the scene graph object) Each plate will have a weighted average based on the number of quakes it receives per year. When the solar and lunar ray cast hit the same plate at the same time I'll do a calculation on the likely hood of a quake and display that number on the screen.

This seems easy enough for TSE Quake simulator version 1.
#28
05/13/2009 (4:18 pm)
Looks like Japan is due for a big quake... 東海地震予知

Tokai Earthquake

geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
Quote:
The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 25 years.

All of Japan is earthquake country, but its most dangerous part is on the Pacific coast of the main island Honshu, just southwest of Tokyo. Here the Philippine plate is moving under the Eurasian plate in an extensive subduction zone. From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment.
Tokai Earthquake History

The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2005, it has been 151 years and counting.

What are the odds the Tokai quake will happen July 22nd 2009? I have no idea. But, I do think we will have a significant quake (5 to 6+) in that region the morning of July 22nd 2009. Until today I had never heard of the Tokai quake. It would be something though if this post turned out to be an accurate Tokai quake prediction.

If there is anything to the idea of gravitational pull and earthquakes then something very like what happened below on March 18 1988 will happen again in Japan on July 22nd 2009. If there is anything to the time intervals between the Tokai earthquakes, then July 22nd 2009 is a convenient time for a guess. After all, we have two possible methods (time interval & gravitational pull) of predicting earthquakes that may coincide on this date.

(Again) Similar Total Solar Eclipse and Earthquake in Japan
March 18 1988 also 6 hours before the eclipse

(7) eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEplot/SEplot1951/SE1988Mar18T.GIF
Possible Match -6 Hrs
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_1988.php

MAR 17 20 34 29.2 35.633 N 139.619 E 103 5.4 1.1 325
NEAR SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. Mo=3.1*10**17 Nm
(HRV). Ten people injured in the Tokyo area. Slight
damage (IV JMA) at Chiba, Kawaguchi-ko, Kumagaya,
Tateyama and Utsunomiya. Felt (III JMA) in the
Onahama-Choshi-Ajiro-Kofu area and on Oshima and
Miyake-jima. Felt (I JMA) from Hikone to Miyako and
on Hachijo-jima.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/TSE1988sm.jpg
www.stop-hamaoka.com/english/020606Interview.html
#29
06/12/2009 (5:04 am)
Britton,I have read your explanation regarding the tsunami predictions that might occur this july 22. I understand your concern and now i like to know if my place will be affected. I am living in the philippines in the region of ALBAY. If i go up the mountain on that date, will we be able to be safe from the tsunami if ever it happens? I am quite confused coz i've been dreaming of a big waves in my dreams just like before the tsunami happened in Thailand. I know its not sure if it will happen but i like to save my family from any danger. I may happen or not but i ma planning to move out my family from any danger.
#30
06/23/2009 (11:32 pm)
@Sarah, I have no idea what will happen on July 22nd. But I think the theory may be correct. It makes sense to me.

From what I gather the higher you are the better. I wouldn't go to the mountains if I were you, I'd just stay away from the beaches. I think a Tsunami can be as 90 feet high at the beach, so a mountain is not needed. If you are safe distance from the beach (I guess say a mile or so) everything should be fine.
#31
06/23/2009 (11:34 pm)
Here is the first supporting evidence from what appears to be a credible scientist.

tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:cARwr_e13ywpMM:http://www.supernovae-energy.com/images/Bild%25205%2520Hans%2520Lehner.jpg
Hans Lehner President of the Institute for Space Quantum Physics and Space Quantum Research says:

2009 Solar Eclipse in China on July 22, 2009, and Earthquake Warning.
Media Report of May 27, 2009 (highest priority) with the request to the media to carry in various publications in the weeks ahead an informative message to the public and the industry, as well as to the European universities and academies encouraging them to perform weight measurements in the Chengdu region of Sichuan (China) and to install seismometers, since this event will be uniquely significant for precision measurements in the near future.

For the time from July 22 to July 28, 2009 we expect an earthquake with a magnitude of 6 and higher to occur in the south of China.

In events of this nature, the earth's rotation and the attendant centrifugal force play a far more important role, a fact not so far understood in academic physics. The new principles of space quantum physics automatically lead to a revised gravitation theory as postulated by Oliver Crane, identifying a cosmic mechanical down-pressure instead of the gravity or mass attraction taught in traditional physics.

It follows that the cosmic mechanical gravitational pressure, or lehneron pressure, will be substantially weakened by this celestial body constellation within the umbral (stress-free) zone in southern China and the centrifugal force, produced by the earth's rotation, can briefly lift the earth's crust, sector by sector within the umbral/stress-free zone, by up to 12 meters. After the umbra is gone, the restored normal pressure will push sector by sector back toward the earth's core.

This will trigger strong earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 and greater in the areas of seismic activity in southern China around the 31st and 32nd latitude within a span of 1 to 6 days. The areas most at risk during that time period are located directly in the umbra of the solar eclipse of 7/22/2009 along a swath of 250 km stretching from the mega city Chengdu in south western China, the scene of the powerful May 12, 2008 earthquake with a magnitude of 7.9 that took thousands of lives, all the way to the mega city Shanghai in south eastern China.

The impact of the total solar eclipse of 7/22/2009 in southern China will be comparable to the total solar eclipse of August 11, 1999 over eastern Turkey (Izmit region) where on August 17, 1999 (only 6 days after the solar eclipse) a powerful 7.5 magnitude earthquake followed by several strong aftershocks took many human lives.

The most endangered areas are all situated within the umbra (stress-free zone) of the total solar eclipse of July 22, 2009 are:
CHINA: The megalopolis of Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Hangzou and Shanghai, respectively.

In these big Chinese cities, millions of people are in danger.

Recommendation by the Institute for Space Quantum Physics IRQP:

Weight measurements with precision balances
Before, during and 1-6days after the solar eclipse of July 22, 2009, in cooperation with...

Motion Sensors (seismographic sensors.At the same time, during the same time period and at the same test points, fully automatic....

As a known fact, traditional physics with its specialists, the seismologists, is unable to precisely calculate and formulate earthquake warnings.
www.supernovae-energy.com/images/img13.gif
Contact address:
Hans Lehner, President, IRQP / IRQF Institute for Space Quantum Physics and Space Quantum Research
Aatalstr. 1
CH-8732 Neuhaus
Switzerland
Tel.: +41 55 282 56 51
Fax: +41 55 282 56 55
e-mail: postmaster@rqm.ch
also see:
www.rqm.ch
www.supernovae-energy.com
June 9, 2009 7:48 PM

www.rqm.ch/earthquake_warnings_with_magnitu1.htm
#32
06/25/2009 (11:36 am)
Tokai Earthquake Prediction

Now that I have some support from the president of the Institute for Space Quantum Physics and Space Quantum Research, I think I'm on the money. He thinks the quake will be in China and I think that's perfectly possible.

I think the biggest earthquake will be in Japan. I will now make my refined Japanese earthquake prediction for 2009. Over the past 5 months I've been reading up on seismic activity in Japan. The great Japanese tokai earthquake is due, and July 22nd 2009 provides the perfect set of predictable gravitational lift and pull events that occur during a total solar eclipse to make it happen. According to Hans Lehner's post above this tectonic shifting caused by the total solar eclipse can last up to 6 days. His window is from July 22nd through July 28th.

I'll go so far as to make my own Tokai earthquake prediction for July 22nd 2009. It will happen a few hours before the eclipse, much like the March 18th earthquake in 1988.

When the sun and moon pull in the same direction during a total solar eclipse, the distortion of the earth’s surface is greater and provides a higher probability of an earth quake along fault lines and tectonic plates beneath Japan.

I'm making my prediction based on the historical cycle of major earthquakes in the region. The Japanese Tokai Earthquake occurs in a cycle of approximately every 150 years. The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 25 years. The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The quake also occurred in 1605 and 1498. The result of using this prediction indicates that Japan has been ripe for the next Tokai quake since 2004. Tokai Region is in Orange below

www.mext.go.jp/english/sites/image/japanese_map.gif
Lets look at the recent seismic activity. Several significant earth earthquakes have occurred in the past two years, and this may indicate the big one is coming. Earthquakes of magnitude 6 and 7 have hit Japan in July 2007, and in June and September 2008. The Japanese earthquakes this year (2009) have picked up the pace. Feb 15, 2009; A 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck off northern Japan on Sunday. Apr 7, 2009; A magnitude 6.6 earthquake has hit at sea near the Kuril island chain between northern Japan and Russia.

So I think the Japanese tokai earth quake cycle coupled with the pull of the eclipse will make the pattern like this:

1498
1605
1707
1854
2009

Read up on it here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm
www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/741637/posts
www.stop-hamaoka.com/english/explanation2.html
sciencelinks.jp/j-east/article/199920/000019992099A0772643.php

Quote:
Kobe was the site of a devastating quake in 1995 that the Japanese know as the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. In Kobe alone, 4571 persons died and more than 200,000 were housed in shelters; in total, 6430 people were killed. More than 100,000 houses collapsed. Millions of homes lost water, power or both. Some $150 billion in damage was recorded.

The other benchmark Japanese quake was the Kanto earthquake of 1923. That event killed more than 120,000 people.

The Hanshin-Awaji earthquake was magnitude 7.3. Kanto was 7.9. But at 8.4, the Tokai Earthquake will be substantially larger.

Add to the tragedy that one of the worlds largest nuclear power plants is sitting in the region that will probably be ground zero. An earthquake rattled it in 2007 (listed above)

www.nukefreetexas.org/images/hamaoka_nuclear_station.jpg

www.stop-hamaoka.com/english/020606Interview.html
www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf18.html

Quote:
In the worst case, if an earthquake did cause one of the Hamaoka reactors to explode what would happen?

In a large-scale steam explosion resulting from a meltdown, around 20 per cent of the radioactive material in the reactor would be released into the environment. It would be approximately the same amount as that of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. With average winds, the radiation would take two hours to reach Shizuoka and Hamamatsu, five hours to Nagoya and seven hours to Tokyo.

This sort of thing makes a Godzilla movie look like a walk in the park by comparison.
#33
06/25/2009 (1:58 pm)
Tokai Quakes, Tsunamis, Nuclear Plants and Mount Fuji Eruptions

static.myopera.com/upic/pool1/Cg/IAV/pN1XqRynokc2qtT9lAQkZc/207468_l.jpgOle Nielsen
Computational Scientist at Geoscience Australia
my.opera.com/nielsol/blog/2006/11/22/tokai-earthquakes
Quote:
In case of a big Tokai earthquake, it is expected that a tsunami more than 6m high will hit the coastal regions, and as has happened earlier, the quake may very well be accompanied by volcanic eruptions at Mt. Fuji. Futhermore the Hamaoka nuclear power plants are situated near the center of the expected focal region of the next great Tokai earthquake.

The relationship between Eclipses and Tokai Quake Cycles

I found the Nasa eclipse data to see if there is any relation to the tokai earthquakes of the past. The difficulty for now is in finding the exact dates of the tokai quakes.
1498
1605 - Feb 3rd
1707 - October 28th
1854 - December 23rd, 9 AM
2009 - July 22nd (predicted)

eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpubs/5MCSE.html
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSE/5MCSE-Maps-09.pdf
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSE/5MCSE-Maps-10.pdf

I've been able to find plenty of correlation to significant 5+ magnitude earthquakes by looking at total solar eclipses in and around the Eurasian Techtonic & Phillipine tectonic plate.

But, I have not been able to find a good correlation with the previous tokai quakes. Four of the five past tokai quakes did not occur in conjunction with a solar eclipse. However, I think that the solar eclipse may be enough to trigger the tokai quake if its ready. 1498 may be the exception we do have a good total solar eclipse and the tokai quake in 1498. But, I cannot find the exact date of the 1498 tokai quake.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/1498.jpg

Quote:
Oral tradition in Japan, which appears to be backed by quite a bit of geologic proof, indicates a great tsunami struck the ancient city of Kamakura, Japan (about an hour from Tokyo) in 1498. The only thing left standing in Kamakura after the tsunami was a huge Buddha stature, 13.35 meters in height, which is still there. The temple that surrounded the Buddha statue was washed away by the tsunami. The elevation of the Kotokuin Temple site where the Buddha statue sits, ranges from 90 to 151 feet above sea level. Given that information, the size of the 1498 tsunami that destroyed Kamakura, must have been enormous, killing ten's of thousands.

Does the July 22nd Eclipse warrant a tsunami prediction? I think so. History shows us that tsunamis are the result of a significant earthquake. Usually as tsunami is possible with an earthquake 7.0 or higher on the Richter scale. The tokai quake has been higher than 8.0 historically. I think that combining the tokai quake cycle with the strong possibility of a significant quake, makes the tsunami a likely result.

The trick here is that not every quake causes a tsunami, not very eclipse causes a quake. The odds of this happening on July 22nd is astronomical. (Pun Intended) The 2009 eclipse is a special astronomical event. It will be the longest eclipse in over a century. Its also a total eclipse, meaning that the moon is close enough to earth to completely block the sun. Combine this with 150 years of tectonic pressure built up since the last tokai quake. So if there is anything to eclipse quake theory, the July 2009 eclipse will have the greatest chance of causing a quake. I expect a significant quake and possible tsunami on or shortly after July 22nd 2009.

Mount Fuji Eruptions
www.oldandsold.com/articles27n/volcanoes-earthquakes-8.shtml

The correlation to a legend is the weakest of all. In 286 BC we did have an eclipse and we did have a quake. Legend has it that mount Fuji was created by the 286 BC quake. I'm sure there is evidence that Mount Fuji has been around for millions of years. Still, there could have been a significant earthquake near the time of a solar eclipse that sparked the story behind the legend.
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/FujiSunriseKawaguchiko2025WP.jpg/285px-FujiSunriseKawaguchiko2025WP.jpg
Quote:
There is an ancient legend of a great earthquake in 286 B.C., when Mount Fuji rose from the bottom of the sea in a single night. This is the highest and most famous mountain of the country. It rises more than 12,000 feet above the water level, and is in shape like a cone; the crater is 500. feet deep.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/286.jpg
If nothing happens in 2009, then we have another pass through in this region March 09 2016. See the eclipse data here: here.
#34
06/28/2009 (6:04 pm)
Last Prediction

Midwest United States - 2017

I've been asked if there are any prediction for the United States. There is one I've been sitting on, because I'd like to see what happens this summer before I spill the beans. But, If there is an earthquake this summer then someone else may beat me to the punch. Its pretty easy to look at the total solar eclipses on the Nasa site and make a prediction.

This is the last I'll do of this until I see what happens next month. Read below about the latest research on the possibility of an earthquake in the central US.

New Data Confirms Strong Earthquake Risk to Central U.S.

New Madrid and the Surrounding Areas Can Expect Another Major Earthquake Within the Next 50 Years

Every 200 years or so we have a major earthquake in the central US due to a build up of pressure. The last one was in December of 1811. It followed 3 months after a Solar eclipse... and it was huge.

Great earthquake of 1811 Follows 1811 Eclipse
www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/1811.jpgupload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b5/New_Madrid_quakes.png/180px-New_Madrid_quakes.png

This is a much weaker correlation than what we have in Japan. In Japan we have an earthquake a few hours to at most a few days of a solar eclipse. Two months after an eclipse is really pushing it.

Quote:
In December of 1811, a the largest earthquake ever recorded in American History started. This earthquake, called the New Madrid Earthquake because of its primary location on the New Madrid Fault, near New Madrid, Missouri. From the effects of the 1811-1812 earthquakes, it can be estimated that they had a magnitude of 8.0 or higher on the not yet invented Richter scale. Large areas sank into the earth, new lakes were formed, and the Mississippi River changed its course due to the earthquakes.

earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/states/historical.php?

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/82/Reelfoot_rift.jpg
Quote:The week of March 13, 2009, a research group based out of Northwestern University and Purdue University, funded by the United States Geological Survey, reported in the journal Science the results of an eight-year high resolution GPS survey of ground deformation along the faults implicated in the New Madrid earthquakes. The team were unable to detect any motion along the fault system, down to a resolution of 0.2mm/year, and concluded that the faults are not moving.

If the faults are not moving is this a good thing or a bad thing? Is it possible that the pressure has reached near its maximum and the faults cannot move?

The 2017 eclipse has the same time series going for it that the Japanese quake does. Every 200 years or so we have an earthquake much like the tokai quake in Japan. On August 21st 2017 we will have a total solar eclipse in the central US. If the major earth quake is not on that day, then like the last eclipse cycle in the united states, the quake may follow a couple of months.

Will the Great earthquake of 2017 Follow the 2017 Eclipse?
www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/2017.jpg

There is a fault line that follows the Mississippi River. Its called the "New Madrid Zone" The Total Solar Eclipse will do its thing then too. Consider the beans spilled...

Using the same methods for the Japanese quake I predict the next major New Madrid Fault earthquake to be with in two months of the 2017 Total Solar Eclipse in the United States. The reasoning is simple. We have about 200 years of pressure build up in the new madrid zone. We have an earthquake about every 200 years. Next, we add a total eclipse that will the combined gravitational pull of the sun and the moon at work together. Finally we have a loose correlation with an eclipse for the last quake 200 years ago.

Any one of these factors alone might not be cause for concern, but what about the combined effect?

#35
06/29/2009 (6:26 pm)
What about the possibility an eclipse with no earth quake?

A good question is why don't we have a quake with every eclipse? I can think of two reasons. If there is no pressure in the tectonic plates, or the eclipse is passing over a region of solid rock with out fault lines, nothing will happen. For eclipses that do pass over fault lines, not every quake is significant, and its not tracked or recorded historically. Maybe we do have quakes with every eclipse over fault lines and tectonic plates, but its not significant enough to really take notice. For example does a 1.0 or less even get noticed?

Lets shift gears and focus on the tectonic plates near large bodies of water. I do think we all agree the effect of lunar gravity is real. Looking a tidal forces alone, the weight of hundreds and thousands of billions of gallons of water must equate at least to millions (if not billions) of tons of pressure on the plates.

Lets take a look at one example I've found. What is the weight or force of one wave 3 meters by 100 meters? According to the calculations below this one wave could could exert a force of 600 tons.

The density of sea water is about 1027 kg/m^3.

So, if we estimate a largish wave 
as being a sort of equilateral triangle shape, 
say, 3 meters tall, 
and extending 100 meters down the beach (just a guess), 
we end up with the following

Cross-sectional area of the triangle
A = 1/2 * b * h
A = 1/2 * (3.4641 m) * (3 m)
A = 5.196 m^2

Volume of the wave
V = A * L
V = (5.196 m^2) * (100 m)
V = 519.6 m^3

Weight of the wave (rho = density, g = gravity)
W = V * rho * g
W = (519.6 m^3) * (1027 kg/m^3) * (9.81 m/s^2)
W = 5.24 * 10^6 newtons
W = 1.2 million pounds

So, the total weight of all the water in our wave is 1.2 million pounds, or about 600 tons.

The solar tide is about one third the lunar tide. Assuming a simple linear model for combined gravitational pull, we might have a third more water during the total solar eclipse. A normal tidal wave might have 600 tons of pressure, but with a third more water, the larger solar eclipse tidal wave might have 800 tons of pressure.

Now imagine that that pressure is applied to a large piece of solid rock floating on the earths fluid molten mantle. Its edge is pushed beneath another large piece of rock next to it. The subducted plate already wants to slide beneath the upper plate, and in a matter of hours here comes a 30% larger than normal downward pressure as billions of tons of water come rolling across the top.
#36
06/29/2009 (6:33 pm)
i'm thinking of heading out to the three gorges damn next month for the full solar eclipse on july 22. i'll let you know if there's a quake.
#37
06/29/2009 (7:42 pm)
Orion, okay... As for me, I'm going to stay home.
#38
06/30/2009 (10:08 pm)
Originally Discounted Data for Japan

There is plenty of data supporting significant quakes that follow within 8 days of a solar eclipse for this region. I could find more but the USGS online data only goes back to 1976.

I discount these larger windows for Japan because I've found several within a few hours. I prefer data with in a few hours. Now that is a useful prediction. Also, the eclipses listed below are not as close in location to Japan as the 1988 Eclipse.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/1997.jpg
1997 March Eclipse and Earthquake
1997 MAR 16 05 51 37.0 34.851 N 137.445 E 36 D 5.7 5.1 0.8 339
NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. Mw 5.6 (HRV).
Mo=3.3*10**17 Nm (HRV). At least 4 people injured at
Toyohashi. Felt (V JMA) at Toyohashi and (IV JMA) at
Hikone, Mino-kamo, Nagoya, Omi-Hachiman and Shimada.
Also felt slightly at Tokyo.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/1998.jpg
1998 August Eclipse and Earthquake
1998 AUG 28 23 46 43.9 35.522 N 139.879 E 76 D 5.2 1.0 244
NEAR SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. Mw 5.4 (HRV).
Mo=1.2*10**17 Nm (HRV). Two people slightly injured in the
Tokyo-Yokohama area.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/2000.jpg
2000 July Eclipse and Earthquake
(Just a few hours before the eclipse.. UTC Time)
2000 JUL 30 12 25 45.5 33.901 N 139.376 E 10 G 6.0 6.5 0.9 428
SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. Mw 6.5 (GS), 6.5 (HRV).
Me 7.1 (GS). Es=1.1*10**15 Nm (GS). Mo=6.3*10**18 Nm (GS).
Mo=6.1*10**18 Nm (HRV). Mo=7.9*10**18 Nm (PPT). One person
injured, a road damaged and landslides on Miyake-jima.
Felt in the Tokyo area. Recorded (6L JMA) on Miyake-jima;
(5L JMA) on Kozu-shima and Nii-jima; (3 JMA) on
Hachijo-jima and O-shima. Also recorded (3 JMA) in Chiba,
Kanagawa and Shizuoka; (1 JMA) as far as Hyogo and
Wakayama Prefectures, Honshu.


www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/2002.jpg
2002 June Eclipse and Earthquake
2002 JUN 14 02 42 47.2 36.222 N 139.850 E 52 D 4.9 0.9 205
EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN. mb 4.9 (GS). One person injured at Toride.
Felt in the Tokyo area. Bullet train service was interrupted on
several lines. Recorded (4 JMA) in Chiba, Ibaraki and Saitama;
(3 JMA) in Gumma, Kanagawa, Tochigi and Tokyo; (2 JMA) in
Fukushima and Shizuoka; (1 JMA) in Miyagi, Nagano, Niigata and
Yamanashi Prefectures. Also recorded (1 JMA) on Miyake-jima and
O-shima.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/2004.jpg
October 2004 Eclipse and Earthquake
Eclipse October 14th 2007 - Earthquake October 23rd 2007

October 23, 2004 6.9 Mw 2004 Chūetsu earthquake 中越地震 Chūetsu Jishin Ojiya, Niigata 4040 occurred at 5:56 p.m.(local time) on Saturday, October 23, 2004. The initial earthquake caused noticeable shaking across almost half of Honshū, including parts of the Tohoku, Hokuriku, Chūbu, and Kantō regions.




--------------------------------------------------------------------

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/2007.jpg
March 2007 Eclipse and Earthquake
Eclipse March 19th 2007 - Earthquake March 25th 2007

March 25, 2007 6.9 ML Noto Peninsula Earthquake 能登半島地震 Noto Hantō Jishin Ishikawa Prefecture about 11 kilometres (6.8 mi) due west of the southern end of the town of Wajima 11 At 9:42 a.m., a magnitude 6.9 earthquake, struck the Hokuriku region of Japan, near the Noto Peninsula. The earthquake shook the city of Nanao and the town of Anamizu with a seismic intensity of 6+ on Japan's shindo scale. One death, in the city of Wajima, and at least 214 injuries have been reported. A tsunami advisory was immediately made for the Kaga coast and Noto coast, and a 10-20cm wave hit shore about 30 minutes later.

I believe The 2007 earthquake in Japan was a result of the eclipse. It did produce a tsunami. The tsunami in this case was 20cm, and may have posed a threat to small rodents, or ankle bracelets. I expect a bigger one this year.

Just looking at the handful of eclipses that I found over the past 20 years using data from NASA and USGS (I can't find global scientific earthquake data earlier than 1976), I don't need reference to these and other eclipses that did not have an earthquake occur in its direct path with in a few hours.

There is enough evidence in my mind that this eclipse earthquake theory is a real phenomenon. Sooner or later as the saying goes "Where truth is concerned, its eventual discovery is unavoidable." This goes nicely with another quote "All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them."
#39
07/01/2009 (12:16 pm)
Famous Earthquakes and Eclipses

This is not about Japan directly. Its historical anecdotal evidence that supports the eclipse earthquake theory. All of these are taken from the Nasa website here: eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhistory/SEhistory.html

Clicking into the links on the Nasa site shows even more details, many have earthquakes associated with them that are not listed on the Nasa page. I'm picking a handful of significant ones. The relationship of the earthquake to the eclipse seems a bit weaker as these eclipses were not directly over the quake site, and not always on the same day. Also the written records and differences in calendar dates makes it difficult to determine the exact time of the earthquake. Not to mention, there is no scientific record of the magnitude. I'm listing a few to show the historical significance that may have lead to some of the first western theories linking solar eclipses to earthquakes.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/423bc.jpg
(1) -0423 Mar 21
(424 BCE) Annular 42 0.943 04m39s 8th Year of Peloponnesian War

Quote:
"In first days of the next summer there was an eclipse of the sun at the time of new moon, and in the early part of the same month an earthquake."
- The History of the Peloponnesian War Wikipedia


----

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/29.jpgwww.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/32.jpg
(2) April 28th 32 AD - Reported eclipse and quake within a few hours

Possibily the most famous eclipse and quake took place on April 28th 32 AD. Nasa Lists two other possible dates (29 and 33 AD) but I think 32 AD matches the timing (in Spring) of this historic event the best.

From Turkey... The account is of an eclipse in 32 or 33 AD.
Quote:
The 2nd-century chronicler Phlegon of Tralles make a statement that during the fourth year of the 202nd Olympiad (AD 32/33) "a great eclipse of the sun occurred at the sixth hour that excelled every other before it, turning the day into such darkness of night that the stars could be seen in heaven, and the earth moved in Bithynia, toppling many buildings in the city of Nicaea"

Another account, the eclipse could not have lasted for more than a few minutes, but apparently according to the recorded history of accounts near the Mediterranean Sea the darkness (from another cause) lasted longer.
Quote:
Now from the sixth hour there was darkness over all the land unto the ninth hour.. And, behold, the veil of the temple was rent in twain from the top to the bottom; and the earth did quake, and the rocks rent...

The important thing to note (for the eclipse quake theory) is that the account in Turkey specifically mentions an eclipse and an earthquake one the same day with in a few hours.
----

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/1133.jpg
(3) 1133 Aug 02 - King Henry's Eclipse

Quote:
"The elements manifested their sorrow at this great man's [King Henry 1] departure from England. For the Sun on that day at the 6th hour shrouded his glorious face, as the poets say, in hideous darkness, agitating the hearts of men by an eclipse; and on the 6th day of the week early in the morning there was so great an earthquake that the ground appeared absolutely to sink down; an horrid noise being first heard beneath the surface."
- Historia Novella by William of Malmesbury

The idea that there is a relationship between earthquakes and eclipses has apparently been around for thousands of years. Aristotle and the Arabic Ibn al-Bitriq also observed the relationship between an eclipse and an earthquake. Naturally the understanding of why the relationship exists is quite different than today. To his credit Ibn al-Bitriq, also spelled (Ibn al-Batriq), seems to have focused on solar eclipses.

Aristotle and Ibn al-Bitriq_Eclipse Quake Theory

Aristotle Eclipse Quake Theory
#40
07/01/2009 (8:28 pm)
Hi Britton LaRoche,
I am from Myanmar, which was known as Burma, and I am not a scientist nor the geologist. I am just an IT administrator who trying to share weather and natural disaster informations to my myanmar friends - informations translated and posted in Myanmar language.

Firstly, I have to say "Hi ! Mr. Britton, thank you very much. ! " to your experiment trying to predict future possible earth-quakes and following tsunamis. Whether your prediction is true or not, at least, I get the knowledge about how deep is your work to give information of possible disaster to those relative regions, and it's really helpful information to me and my myanmar friends.

Secondly, I would like to ask how can I calculate or imagine how much damage caused by 22nd JULY Eclips-Quake can be to our country?

And last request is to accept my apology that I have translated some extracts of your post and comments to myanmar(burmese) language and posted on my blog to share this information to my friends, without your permission, as time is running out and closing to the target date.
Thanks.
http://mmweather.wordpress.com - Zawgyi-One unicode font is used for myanmar language translation.