Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 585 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
View Stats
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
"Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
#242
We have two potential windows with the next two major lunar events causing greater than normal tidal forces, the Dec 2 2009 full moon and Dec 31st Lunar eclipse.
A perigee (moon closest to earth in orbit) will occur on Dec 4th 2009 as well.
See Bottom of Page 12 to find out what whale beachings have to do with earthquakes Here.
11/20/2009 (2:58 pm)
So what does this mean? According to Berkland's theory the magnetic fields surrounding the tectonic plates are distorted before a major earthquake, this causes marine animals and other land animals to become disoriented and get lost. Hence we have whale beachings. If this is correct then northern California and British Columbia may be due for a large quake.We have two potential windows with the next two major lunar events causing greater than normal tidal forces, the Dec 2 2009 full moon and Dec 31st Lunar eclipse.
A perigee (moon closest to earth in orbit) will occur on Dec 4th 2009 as well.
See Bottom of Page 12 to find out what whale beachings have to do with earthquakes Here.
#243
Magnitude 6.0
Quake ID: us2009pnbi.php
Date-Time
Saturday, November 28, 2009 at 18:10:24 UTC
Sunday, November 29, 2009 at 02:10:24 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
5.406°N, 126.451°E
Depth
74.8 km (46.5 miles)
Region
MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
11/28/2009 (3:46 pm)
As predicted...Here. (more to come)Magnitude 6.0
Quake ID: us2009pnbi.php
Date-Time
Saturday, November 28, 2009 at 18:10:24 UTC
Sunday, November 29, 2009 at 02:10:24 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
5.406°N, 126.451°E
Depth
74.8 km (46.5 miles)
Region
MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
#244
Full Story Here
And Here
2 stranded whales near death on Bali beach
(AP) Sunday November 29th
BALI, Indonesia Two young whales are stranded on Indonesia's resort island of Bali and will die on the beach because they are too weak to survive even if returned to the water, an official said Sunday.
The pair was among four whales that washed ashore Saturday (Nov 28th) near Tanah Lot Beach, one of the most popular and picturesque tourist destinations on the island province, Ariwangsa said.
11/30/2009 (11:55 am)
More beachings Full Story Here
And Here
2 stranded whales near death on Bali beach
(AP) Sunday November 29th
BALI, Indonesia Two young whales are stranded on Indonesia's resort island of Bali and will die on the beach because they are too weak to survive even if returned to the water, an official said Sunday.
The pair was among four whales that washed ashore Saturday (Nov 28th) near Tanah Lot Beach, one of the most popular and picturesque tourist destinations on the island province, Ariwangsa said.
#245
You say that the quakes will be in the spots. So for example, are you talking about the M6.9 that occured in the RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN, Kyushu area on 10/30, or the one that occured in central Taiwan, Nantou County M5.7 on 11/5? Or both?
12/10/2009 (2:37 am)
Mr. Britton, from your post on 11/20/2009 (2:45 am),You say that the quakes will be in the spots. So for example, are you talking about the M6.9 that occured in the RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN, Kyushu area on 10/30, or the one that occured in central Taiwan, Nantou County M5.7 on 11/5? Or both?
#246
I'm Speaking about a 28 day quake cycle for all countries in the "Ring Of Fire" bordering the Pacific and Phillipine Tectonic plates. So far since September 2009 with the tidal forces of each full moon we have seen Magnitude 5.0 and above quakes in these regions.
However, the primary focal points for me in this blog are around the intersection of the Phillipine plate and its neighbors. To be more specific, I'm mainly focused on countries involved in the interaction of the Eurasian Plate and the Phillipine Plate.
Full Moon / Quake Cycle
---------------------------
2009 Sep 4 16:04
2009 Oct 4 6:12
2009 Nov 2 19:15
2009 Dec 2 7:32
2009 Dec 31 19:14
December 31st Predictions
According to my theory, the big ones (Magnitude 6.0 and above) are coming on December 31st 2009 with the Lunar eclipse. The primary window for theses large quakes is from Dec 26th 2009 Through January 4th 2010.
To answer your question directly. Yes both quakes are included (in what I would consider to be an accurate prediction that I made using this theory) For this region I expect the quakes in Japan and Tawain but also along the southern part of the Philipine and Eurasian plates.
I'm not posting the quakes that match my predictions yet. I'm loading all this data into a relational database for quakes and lunar data. I'm writing SQL Queries against the data to find correlations. When I'm done I'll be able to produce reports for an area defined by latitude and longitude for each significant lunar event. I'm in the process of loading all global quakes recorded at the USGS from 1973 to present. I'm correlating this to the lunar apogee, perigee, full moon new moon and lunar / solar eclipse data from Nasa.
I'll publish these results for statistical analysis for anyone interested. For the past few months I've been very accurate in my predictions.
Expanding the Theory
I don't want to cloud the theory at the moment, but I expect quakes in other areas as well. I'm starting to apply my theory elsewhere. This time around I expect Quakes in northern California and Canada (Along the eastern part of the Juan De Fuca Plate).
I also expect a quake in the extreme southern part Italy and Greece of all places. However, I expect the magnitudes to be less than 6.0 in these areas.
www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/12/12/world/international-uk-italy-whales.html
Five Whales Die After Rare Beaching Off Italy
By REUTERS
Published: December 12, 2009
Pressure build up in the tectonic plate south of Italy (the pressure generates heat and friction) is enough to distort the magnetic field in the rocks around the plates. This magnetic distortion causes the whales to go off course, get lost and beach themselves.
This signals the region is ready for a large quake. The lunar eclipse has the earth sun and moon in an exact straight line. We see extreemly high tides during lunar eclipse because of the fantastic gravitational effects of the two largest heavenly bodies having a literal "tug of war" on the earth. All the plate needs is the additional impetus from the accelerated angular momentum of the lunar pull (and consequently abnormally large tidal forces) during the Dec 31st 2009 lunar eclipse to shift the plates and cause the quake. Same theory... different place. We will see what happens.
Dec 31st 2009 Lunar Eclipse Data from Nasa Here Here
12/23/2009 (2:07 pm)
@Seneq,I'm Speaking about a 28 day quake cycle for all countries in the "Ring Of Fire" bordering the Pacific and Phillipine Tectonic plates. So far since September 2009 with the tidal forces of each full moon we have seen Magnitude 5.0 and above quakes in these regions.
However, the primary focal points for me in this blog are around the intersection of the Phillipine plate and its neighbors. To be more specific, I'm mainly focused on countries involved in the interaction of the Eurasian Plate and the Phillipine Plate.
Full Moon / Quake Cycle
---------------------------
2009 Sep 4 16:04
2009 Oct 4 6:12
2009 Nov 2 19:15
2009 Dec 2 7:32
2009 Dec 31 19:14
December 31st Predictions
According to my theory, the big ones (Magnitude 6.0 and above) are coming on December 31st 2009 with the Lunar eclipse. The primary window for theses large quakes is from Dec 26th 2009 Through January 4th 2010.
To answer your question directly. Yes both quakes are included (in what I would consider to be an accurate prediction that I made using this theory) For this region I expect the quakes in Japan and Tawain but also along the southern part of the Philipine and Eurasian plates.
I'm not posting the quakes that match my predictions yet. I'm loading all this data into a relational database for quakes and lunar data. I'm writing SQL Queries against the data to find correlations. When I'm done I'll be able to produce reports for an area defined by latitude and longitude for each significant lunar event. I'm in the process of loading all global quakes recorded at the USGS from 1973 to present. I'm correlating this to the lunar apogee, perigee, full moon new moon and lunar / solar eclipse data from Nasa.
I'll publish these results for statistical analysis for anyone interested. For the past few months I've been very accurate in my predictions.
Expanding the Theory
I don't want to cloud the theory at the moment, but I expect quakes in other areas as well. I'm starting to apply my theory elsewhere. This time around I expect Quakes in northern California and Canada (Along the eastern part of the Juan De Fuca Plate).
I also expect a quake in the extreme southern part Italy and Greece of all places. However, I expect the magnitudes to be less than 6.0 in these areas.
www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/12/12/world/international-uk-italy-whales.html
Five Whales Die After Rare Beaching Off Italy
By REUTERS
Published: December 12, 2009
Quote:
ROME (Reuters) - At least five whales have died after nine beached themselves off Italy's southern coast, in what experts called a highly unusual event in Mediterranean waters.
The whales, measuring up to 10 metres long and weighing several tonnes each, were found stranded off the coast of Puglia on Thursday, the environment ministry said. Four were already dead and the rest were dying.
Nine whales initially beached themselves but two managed to escape into deeper waters, environmental group Greenpeace said, calling it "extraordinary" both for the size of the beaching as well as the unlikely presence of whales in the area at this time of the year.
....
"A massive beaching is extremely rare in the Mediterranean," biologist Maurizio Wurtz at the University of Genoa told La Stampa daily. Experts say the beachings are more likely to occur in areas like Australia.
...
Pressure build up in the tectonic plate south of Italy (the pressure generates heat and friction) is enough to distort the magnetic field in the rocks around the plates. This magnetic distortion causes the whales to go off course, get lost and beach themselves.
This signals the region is ready for a large quake. The lunar eclipse has the earth sun and moon in an exact straight line. We see extreemly high tides during lunar eclipse because of the fantastic gravitational effects of the two largest heavenly bodies having a literal "tug of war" on the earth. All the plate needs is the additional impetus from the accelerated angular momentum of the lunar pull (and consequently abnormally large tidal forces) during the Dec 31st 2009 lunar eclipse to shift the plates and cause the quake. Same theory... different place. We will see what happens.
Dec 31st 2009 Lunar Eclipse Data from Nasa Here Here
#247
I'm using this blog to link all the relevant data for future research with my new hobby, building an earthquake simulator.
Magnetic Disturbances
Magnetic Disturbances detected along fault lines before the 1964 Alaskan quake.
1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake predicted by Jim Berkland.
Nair Effect Magnetic Field Theory
Currently I'm creating a database of lunar events and earthquakes to determine the exact correlation between the two.
12/28/2009 (4:13 pm)
The theory I'm presenting is based off of Jim Berkland's work over the past 30 years. It has two parts, one is that a magnetic disturbance is often detected before a major quake. The second part of the theory is that a straight line with the Sun, Moon and Earth (called Syzygy) causes abnormally high tides, and gravitational disturbances that trigger earthquakes. Using these two phenomenon together he claims to have an 80% success rate in predicting the time, location and magnitude of earth quakes.I'm using this blog to link all the relevant data for future research with my new hobby, building an earthquake simulator.
Magnetic Disturbances
Magnetic Disturbances detected along fault lines before the 1964 Alaskan quake.
1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake predicted by Jim Berkland.
Nair Effect Magnetic Field Theory
Currently I'm creating a database of lunar events and earthquakes to determine the exact correlation between the two.
#248
Thanks for posting back to me. One of the reasons I am interested in your research is because I live in Taiwan. I use ear tones to predict quakes and the ones above that you posted I did hear prior to them coming, but my predictions are within only about 10 days of the quakes occuring. Most recently I have had some tones, but nothing incredible strong yet or upwards of a six, but something is brewing and the weather is also ripe for it. Although tonight I did have some signs of a slightly bigger quake.
The big ones being most certainly felt here. And there have been a few since your last update that we have felt up in Taipei. The last one, off Hualien was probably the second most strongest earthquake since I have been living here.
I am somewhat familar with Jim Berkland's work.
I would be very interested in any model/software you are able to build, I find it fascinating that software could even be built for this type of thing. I like your new hobby!
12/29/2009 (1:33 pm)
Britton,Thanks for posting back to me. One of the reasons I am interested in your research is because I live in Taiwan. I use ear tones to predict quakes and the ones above that you posted I did hear prior to them coming, but my predictions are within only about 10 days of the quakes occuring. Most recently I have had some tones, but nothing incredible strong yet or upwards of a six, but something is brewing and the weather is also ripe for it. Although tonight I did have some signs of a slightly bigger quake.
The big ones being most certainly felt here. And there have been a few since your last update that we have felt up in Taipei. The last one, off Hualien was probably the second most strongest earthquake since I have been living here.
I am somewhat familar with Jim Berkland's work.
I would be very interested in any model/software you are able to build, I find it fascinating that software could even be built for this type of thing. I like your new hobby!
#249
I follow this blog very frequently and am amazed by your theory. Today i saw something in the San Francisco area and was relating this concept to the magnetic disturbances.
The sea lions from SFO are gone and this is something that never happened in so many years. The full story is at the following link.
http://news.yahoo.com/video/sanfranciscocbs5-15751300/sea-lions-mysteriously-disappear-from-pier-39-17346489
Would this be a sign of a possible quake ?
12/29/2009 (10:28 pm)
Hi Britton,I follow this blog very frequently and am amazed by your theory. Today i saw something in the San Francisco area and was relating this concept to the magnetic disturbances.
The sea lions from SFO are gone and this is something that never happened in so many years. The full story is at the following link.
http://news.yahoo.com/video/sanfranciscocbs5-15751300/sea-lions-mysteriously-disappear-from-pier-39-17346489
Would this be a sign of a possible quake ?
#250
@Srikath, yeah lost pets and missing animals is what Berkland uses to predict earthquakes. They even mention the fact that they remained there since the Loma Pietra earthquake in 1989 in the news report. Yahoo news Missing Sea Lions in SF California
So far I have a few quakes that match my criteria. That means I need to extend the window till January 8th 2010. I noticed that the lunar eclipses this summer has a greater effect up to 8 days after the lunar eclipse. This is only the third lunar eclipse I've paid attention to.
I'll admit this method is pretty crude. But here goes. The major quakes started on August 9th, 3 days after the August 6th 2009 Lunar eclipse. They lasted through August 18th... 9 days after they began.
To apply the same logic we would have the big quakes starting January 3 2010 and lasting through January 12th 2010. I think I'll have to change my prediction based on the data... no big ones so far.
Major quakes same areas I predicted before but the window is shifting from January 3rd through January 12th 2010. I predict Magnitude 6.0 quakes and above in the areas listed above in my blog January 3rd through January 12th 2010.
12/30/2009 (7:21 pm)
@Seneq, makes sense that you would hear rumbling before a big quake. Sounds a lot like the Nair Effect Magnetic Field Theory@Srikath, yeah lost pets and missing animals is what Berkland uses to predict earthquakes. They even mention the fact that they remained there since the Loma Pietra earthquake in 1989 in the news report. Yahoo news Missing Sea Lions in SF California
So far I have a few quakes that match my criteria. That means I need to extend the window till January 8th 2010. I noticed that the lunar eclipses this summer has a greater effect up to 8 days after the lunar eclipse. This is only the third lunar eclipse I've paid attention to.
I'll admit this method is pretty crude. But here goes. The major quakes started on August 9th, 3 days after the August 6th 2009 Lunar eclipse. They lasted through August 18th... 9 days after they began.
To apply the same logic we would have the big quakes starting January 3 2010 and lasting through January 12th 2010. I think I'll have to change my prediction based on the data... no big ones so far.
DATE-(UTC) TIME Lat Lon Depth Magnitude Comments 2009/08/18 23:47:55 23.41N 123.42E 010 5.1 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN 2009/08/18 21:20:47 26.06S 178.39W 269 6.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 2009/08/18 17:59:16 6.69S 154.58E 061 5.6 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2009/08/18 17:50:37 0.87S 097.97E 035 5.9 KEPULAUAN BATU, INDONESIA 2009/08/18 16:26:48 0.96S 097.96E 020 5.1 KEPULAUAN BATU, INDONESIA 2009/08/18 13:17:35 23.50N 123.51E 006 5.6 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN 2009/08/18 09:28:58 1.43S 099.35E 035 5.1 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA 2009/08/18 01:47:52 23.46N 123.54E 010 5.2 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN 2009/08/18 01:31:10 1.84N 127.41E 092 5.3 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA 2009/08/18 00:59:45 22.47S 170.73E 055 5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS 2009/08/17 16:56:42 45.81S 166.01E 035 5.0 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z. 2009/08/17 10:15:06 23.43N 123.70E 010 5.6 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 2009/08/17 10:10:56 23.41N 123.46E 010 6.1 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 2009/08/17 00:07:14 4.31S 101.81E 039 5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA 2009/08/17 00:05:49 23.50N 123.49E 020 6.7 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN 2009/08/16 07:38:21 1.47S 099.49E 020 6.7 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA 2009/08/15 23:30:19 19.82S 178.23W 608 5.6 FIJI REGION 2009/08/15 12:30:12 0.08N 123.45E 166 5.3 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA 2009/08/14 20:56:31 13.40N 125.37E 035 5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION 2009/08/13 11:17:01 21.76S 174.46W 010 5.7 TONGA 2009/08/13 03:46:53 26.76S 114.26W 010 5.3 EASTER ISLAND REGION 2009/08/12 22:48:51 32.82N 140.39E 053 6.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/12 20:04:25 6.04N 126.35E 095 5.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES 2009/08/11 21:43:47 24.32N 094.79E 099 5.5 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION 2009/08/10 20:07:07 34.73N 138.29E 026 6.4 NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/10 04:06:31 11.61S 166.09E 035 6.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS 2009/08/09 10:55:55 33.16N 137.94E 0297 7.1 NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Major quakes same areas I predicted before but the window is shifting from January 3rd through January 12th 2010. I predict Magnitude 6.0 quakes and above in the areas listed above in my blog January 3rd through January 12th 2010.
#251
Any predictions?
01/04/2010 (2:33 am)
On Friday, 2010 January 15, an annular eclipse of the Sun is visible from within a 300-km-wide track that traverses half of EarthAny predictions?
#252
I did; however, predict my first US based earthquake today. It was larger than normal for California. It was right where I expected. I expect a few more above and below this quake. I expect more over then next 8 Days. I also expect one 4.5 or bigger (significant quake in Northern CA, Oregon or Canada along the eastern part of the Juan De Fuca Plate. That is the plate in red to left and above California.
Event ID nc71330090
4.1 2010/01/04 06:24:54 40.277N 123.868W 30.7 18 km (11 mi) N of Redway, CA
These quakes listed below do fit the model that I have been talking about, and match the magnitude I expected with the lunar eclipse. We have not seen M 6.0 and M 7.0 for over two months in these regions.
I expect more quakes of this magnitude between now and January 12th in and around the same region. We may see these quakes as far north as Japan and Taiwan. Region in question is the Pacific Plate where it meets the Eurasian and Philippine plate. Just to be technical... it also includes the smaller two fractured plates beneath the Philippine plate. In my mind its really two large plates pitted against each other. The Eurasian and Pacific Plate.
The Phillipine plate and its two smaller sibling plates to the south were (I believe) once part of the mighty pacific plate that is getting broken and ground under by the Eurasian plate. Because the earth has tilted in its rotational axis the sun is further south, and has pushed these quakes lower in latitude as well.
My "testing" will end after this lunar eclipse, and I will be modeling the data in a relational database looking for correlations between lunar events and earthquakes. I'm using the USGS Earthquake data collected world wide since 1973, and the NASA lunar and solar eclipse data for those time periods. I do not believe the data prior to 1973 is a complete set of data that I can use for true analysis, because I think we are missing a good global record before that time.
01/04/2010 (9:03 pm)
@Arun, January 15th will be very mild for quakes. I've noticed that (for 2009) the big quakes we on or shortly after the lunar eclipses. It will be on the tail end of a rather bumpy ride ending on January 12th.I did; however, predict my first US based earthquake today. It was larger than normal for California. It was right where I expected. I expect a few more above and below this quake. I expect more over then next 8 Days. I also expect one 4.5 or bigger (significant quake in Northern CA, Oregon or Canada along the eastern part of the Juan De Fuca Plate. That is the plate in red to left and above California.
Event ID nc71330090
4.1 2010/01/04 06:24:54 40.277N 123.868W 30.7 18 km (11 mi) N of Redway, CA
These quakes listed below do fit the model that I have been talking about, and match the magnitude I expected with the lunar eclipse. We have not seen M 6.0 and M 7.0 for over two months in these regions.
Mag Date Lat Long Region 6.1 2010/01/04 11:28:24 -8.346 157.067 35.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS 7.2 2010/01/03 22:36:31 -8.912 157.307 30.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS 6.5 2010/01/03 21:48:06 -8.880 157.325 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS 6.2 2010/01/02 08:45:34 12.509 141.878 10.0 MARIANA ISLANDS
I expect more quakes of this magnitude between now and January 12th in and around the same region. We may see these quakes as far north as Japan and Taiwan. Region in question is the Pacific Plate where it meets the Eurasian and Philippine plate. Just to be technical... it also includes the smaller two fractured plates beneath the Philippine plate. In my mind its really two large plates pitted against each other. The Eurasian and Pacific Plate.
The Phillipine plate and its two smaller sibling plates to the south were (I believe) once part of the mighty pacific plate that is getting broken and ground under by the Eurasian plate. Because the earth has tilted in its rotational axis the sun is further south, and has pushed these quakes lower in latitude as well.
My "testing" will end after this lunar eclipse, and I will be modeling the data in a relational database looking for correlations between lunar events and earthquakes. I'm using the USGS Earthquake data collected world wide since 1973, and the NASA lunar and solar eclipse data for those time periods. I do not believe the data prior to 1973 is a complete set of data that I can use for true analysis, because I think we are missing a good global record before that time.
#253
Today we had a 4.1 quake in San Jose and it falls in your window of prediction.
I wish you good luck on your theory which seems to be ground-breaking :)
Regards.
Srikanth.
01/07/2010 (5:40 pm)
Hi Britton,Today we had a 4.1 quake in San Jose and it falls in your window of prediction.
I wish you good luck on your theory which seems to be ground-breaking :)
Regards.
Srikanth.
#254
01/09/2010 (4:15 am)
Do you think the magnitudes will be bigger, the same or smaller around these regions from Soloman islands upward to Japan and Taiwan?
#255
One more major one near Ferndale CA,
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582690,00.html
Best Regards,
Srikanth.
01/10/2010 (3:17 am)
Britton,One more major one near Ferndale CA,
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582690,00.html
Best Regards,
Srikanth.
#256
No doubt in my mind this is real. Nailed a 6.5 right where I said it would be, right when I said it would be.
Magnitude 6.5
Quake Id: nc71338066
Date-Time
* Sunday, January 10, 2010 at 00:27:38 UTC
* Saturday, January 09, 2010 at 04:27:38 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 40.645°N, 124.763°W
Depth 21.7 km (13.5 miles)
Region OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances
* 43 km (27 miles) W (280°) from Ferndale, CA
* 48 km (30 miles) W (259°) from Humboldt Hill, CA
* 51 km (32 miles) WSW (255°) from Bayview, CA
* 53 km (33 miles) WSW (252°) from Eureka, CA
* 365 km (227 miles) NW (310°) from Sacramento, CA
Seneq, most of the quakes have gone more to the southern hemisphere just as the Sun has, for the winter. I think once I have my database queries up and running we will see that the quakes follow the Sun, during the seasonal shifts of the earth's rotation.
California is different, I used the whale and squid beachings to predict that one.
01/10/2010 (3:50 am)
Srikanth,No doubt in my mind this is real. Nailed a 6.5 right where I said it would be, right when I said it would be.
Magnitude 6.5
Quake Id: nc71338066
Date-Time
* Sunday, January 10, 2010 at 00:27:38 UTC
* Saturday, January 09, 2010 at 04:27:38 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 40.645°N, 124.763°W
Depth 21.7 km (13.5 miles)
Region OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances
* 43 km (27 miles) W (280°) from Ferndale, CA
* 48 km (30 miles) W (259°) from Humboldt Hill, CA
* 51 km (32 miles) WSW (255°) from Bayview, CA
* 53 km (33 miles) WSW (252°) from Eureka, CA
* 365 km (227 miles) NW (310°) from Sacramento, CA
Seneq, most of the quakes have gone more to the southern hemisphere just as the Sun has, for the winter. I think once I have my database queries up and running we will see that the quakes follow the Sun, during the seasonal shifts of the earth's rotation.
California is different, I used the whale and squid beachings to predict that one.
#257
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100113/ts_nm/us_quake_haiti
01/12/2010 (10:29 pm)
One more major one falling in your prediction window.http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100113/ts_nm/us_quake_haiti
#258
Though I will say the last few days I have been hearing much activity around Taiwan, I personally suspect there will be one around the central or eastern areas of Taiwan. I predict this will occur within the next 10 days.
01/13/2010 (9:29 am)
Britton, appears you are correct, the big one in Hati may show everything has indeed starting moving south. Very interesting.Though I will say the last few days I have been hearing much activity around Taiwan, I personally suspect there will be one around the central or eastern areas of Taiwan. I predict this will occur within the next 10 days.
#259
We will also have another major quake in Hati with the next full moon. I'd expect at least a 6.0 Magnitude in the same spot 3 days after the full moon 2010 Jan 30 6:19. The reason is simple, its a double eclipse, the third syzygy will be the final blow. There will be another significant quake Magnitude 4.5 3 days after the annular eclipse on January 15th (magnitude 4.5 +) but the big one will be around Februauary 2nd 2010 in Hati.
Quake id: us2010rja6
Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 21:53:09 UTC
Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 04:53:09 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 18.451°N, 72.445°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region HAITI REGION
Let me explain a little. If the moon is the cause of these quakes, then its effect is magnified when its in a true straight line (lunar eclipse) with the earth and sun. When this eclipse is followed by a solar eclipse then it means that the moon has stayed for 14 days on the same plane. This is called a double eclipse.
We saw major quakes 4 days after the Dec 31st 2009 lunar eclipse on January 3rd and 4th, and 3 to 4 days before the January 15th solar eclipse, on January 12th 2010. This occurred in August of 2009 and again in January of 2010. I think we are looking at a cumulative build up of force, rocks being loosened by repeated tidal forces as the earth rotates day after day, and some sort of complex angular momentum physics equation that shows maximum torque at a 45 degree angle for example.
So we had a lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009, 4 days later we had a series of Magnitude 6.0 and 7.0 + quakes. 3 Days before the annular solar eclipse we had a major Magnitude 7.0 quake in Hati on January 12th 2010.
My prediction window was changed to January 3rd through January 12th. Its the same 9 day window we had this summer with the August 9th - August 18th quakes. The peaks then and now were when the moon was at an angle between 36 and 48 degrees on the same plane as the eclipse.
The end of the cycle is the following full moon, the cumulative effect of repeated tidal force beatings, quakes and slippage is felt again, because although its not an eclipse the moon is still very much on the same plane. That is why a few days after the next full moon Jan 30th - February 2nd 2010 I expect major quakes in Hati and around New Zealand. The end of the next quake cycle will be February 11th 2010.
So I expect major quakes in the southern hemisphere, where we had quakes in January from February 2nd ending on February 11th 2010. If this seems like a simplistic prediction method, it seems so because it is. But, so far I have about an 80% batting average.
01/13/2010 (12:55 pm)
Srikanth, Seneq, yes. Although I did not predict this one its in the south and during my prediction window. I think we will have more quakes in Japan and Taiwan this summer with the Lunar Eclipse in June.We will also have another major quake in Hati with the next full moon. I'd expect at least a 6.0 Magnitude in the same spot 3 days after the full moon 2010 Jan 30 6:19. The reason is simple, its a double eclipse, the third syzygy will be the final blow. There will be another significant quake Magnitude 4.5 3 days after the annular eclipse on January 15th (magnitude 4.5 +) but the big one will be around Februauary 2nd 2010 in Hati.
Quake id: us2010rja6
Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 21:53:09 UTC
Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 04:53:09 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 18.451°N, 72.445°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region HAITI REGION
Let me explain a little. If the moon is the cause of these quakes, then its effect is magnified when its in a true straight line (lunar eclipse) with the earth and sun. When this eclipse is followed by a solar eclipse then it means that the moon has stayed for 14 days on the same plane. This is called a double eclipse.
We saw major quakes 4 days after the Dec 31st 2009 lunar eclipse on January 3rd and 4th, and 3 to 4 days before the January 15th solar eclipse, on January 12th 2010. This occurred in August of 2009 and again in January of 2010. I think we are looking at a cumulative build up of force, rocks being loosened by repeated tidal forces as the earth rotates day after day, and some sort of complex angular momentum physics equation that shows maximum torque at a 45 degree angle for example.
So we had a lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009, 4 days later we had a series of Magnitude 6.0 and 7.0 + quakes. 3 Days before the annular solar eclipse we had a major Magnitude 7.0 quake in Hati on January 12th 2010.
My prediction window was changed to January 3rd through January 12th. Its the same 9 day window we had this summer with the August 9th - August 18th quakes. The peaks then and now were when the moon was at an angle between 36 and 48 degrees on the same plane as the eclipse.
The end of the cycle is the following full moon, the cumulative effect of repeated tidal force beatings, quakes and slippage is felt again, because although its not an eclipse the moon is still very much on the same plane. That is why a few days after the next full moon Jan 30th - February 2nd 2010 I expect major quakes in Hati and around New Zealand. The end of the next quake cycle will be February 11th 2010.
So I expect major quakes in the southern hemisphere, where we had quakes in January from February 2nd ending on February 11th 2010. If this seems like a simplistic prediction method, it seems so because it is. But, so far I have about an 80% batting average.
#260
Some other quakes I have seen move south also, but I am wondering if another one is brewing in California. I sense something else just hasn't been finished there.
01/14/2010 (12:50 pm)
January 2nd? I am guessing you mean the 20th or 22th perhaps? Most likely an aftershock or a fresh quake in a different region? That's going to be aweful if it does happen, it is a disaster already.Some other quakes I have seen move south also, but I am wondering if another one is brewing in California. I sense something else just hasn't been finished there.
Torque Owner Britton LaRoche
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here. Right before the Magnitude 7.0 earthquake he predicted in California during the world series on October 14th 1989. One of the methods he used was missing pets, he also mentions there was a whale beaching. He believes that the pressure building in the tectonic plates causes the magnetic fields around those plates to become distorted and interfere with the animals navigational abilities.
70ft Whale Beached in Northern Calif. October 22nd 2009
www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/22/national/main5408699.shtml
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091022-blue-whale-washed-ashore-picture...
That's squids and two blue whales way out of their normal migratory patterns. I'm sure Berkland would think this is significant.
Dozens of Jumbo Squid Beached After Quake--Coincidence? July 14 2009
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/090714-giant-squid-earthquake.html
See Bottom of Page 12 to find out what whale beachings have to do with earthqaukes Here.