Plan for Jeff Tunnell
by Jeff Tunnell · 03/29/2005 (9:48 pm) · 52 comments
www.gamespot.com//pc/action/tribesvengeance/news_6121146.html
"According to NPD, Vengence has sold just over 43,000 units through February"
Let's see...
Income:
43,000 units. Retail price: $19.99. Wholesale price: $12.00. = $516,000.
Costs:
Unreal Engine License + 2 years support: $950,000.
(let's say they got a bulk deal), so knock it down to $500,000.
Development Fees: $3,000,000 est.
Marketing Costs: $250,000 est.
Inventory: 200,000 units at $2/unit: $400,000
TOTAL COSTS: $4,150,000
TOTAL INCOME: 516,000
TOTAL PROFIT (LOSS): ($3,634,400)
Note: In case you don't know what () means, accounts use it as a sign of LOSS.
I think the above numbers are probably very conservative (especially the marketing costs). The actual loss is probably more like $4MM or 5MM.
Last night I was in the local EB World store. For some reason, I had never looked at the TV box. I finally found one on the very bottom, totally trashed, with a bunch of mark down stickers and a final price of $17.99!
Oh man. That box! It is an absolute disaster. I honestly could not believe how bad it was. They took the awesome art look of Tribes and turned it into something that looked like fan art from a 13 year old.
It just goes to show that you cannot make games by the recipe, i.e. good developers, Unreal Engine, lots of budget and development time, proven franchise, etc. Even with the right ingredients, it still takes somebody or a group of people to make the magic.
Anyway, that is probably enough gloating. Please do not take this as a slam against the developers of TV, most of this was out of their control.
"According to NPD, Vengence has sold just over 43,000 units through February"
Let's see...
Income:
43,000 units. Retail price: $19.99. Wholesale price: $12.00. = $516,000.
Costs:
Unreal Engine License + 2 years support: $950,000.
(let's say they got a bulk deal), so knock it down to $500,000.
Development Fees: $3,000,000 est.
Marketing Costs: $250,000 est.
Inventory: 200,000 units at $2/unit: $400,000
TOTAL COSTS: $4,150,000
TOTAL INCOME: 516,000
TOTAL PROFIT (LOSS): ($3,634,400)
Note: In case you don't know what () means, accounts use it as a sign of LOSS.
I think the above numbers are probably very conservative (especially the marketing costs). The actual loss is probably more like $4MM or 5MM.
Last night I was in the local EB World store. For some reason, I had never looked at the TV box. I finally found one on the very bottom, totally trashed, with a bunch of mark down stickers and a final price of $17.99!
Oh man. That box! It is an absolute disaster. I honestly could not believe how bad it was. They took the awesome art look of Tribes and turned it into something that looked like fan art from a 13 year old.
It just goes to show that you cannot make games by the recipe, i.e. good developers, Unreal Engine, lots of budget and development time, proven franchise, etc. Even with the right ingredients, it still takes somebody or a group of people to make the magic.
Anyway, that is probably enough gloating. Please do not take this as a slam against the developers of TV, most of this was out of their control.
About the author
#22
In other words, they're gambling with the jobs of every person they employ.
03/30/2005 (4:52 am)
Quote:The model that the industry is using now is that a couple of hits carry all the other games that lose money.
In other words, they're gambling with the jobs of every person they employ.
#23
03/30/2005 (5:29 am)
Regardless of the loss, it's still got to be hard to see something that you created get taken over and turned into a giant turd.
#24
Hehehehe
03/30/2005 (7:18 am)
What about Duke Nukem Forever? I wonder how it will be when it comes out?Hehehehe
#25
The Dynamix team showed what game support should be like with T1 and I'm sorry I only paid the early 2000 price of $39 instead of $100 that work of gameplay art deserved.
03/30/2005 (8:18 am)
Thanks for that analysis Jeff, I was sort of holding my breath for T:V to come around with a patch that was more 'community friendly' but my only regret now is that I paid $50 in support of that franchise release instead of $19.99 which it's hardly worth now.The Dynamix team showed what game support should be like with T1 and I'm sorry I only paid the early 2000 price of $39 instead of $100 that work of gameplay art deserved.
#26
03/30/2005 (11:22 am)
Yikes!
#27
are this sale units only for the US market or for the whole world ? The game also was sold in europe (but it seems with the same success in Germany => amazon Germany kicked it already out of there list).
So if the units are not for the whole world, you have to add some more units (but also add some more money to the marketing).
overall it's still a financial bankrupt.
03/30/2005 (3:30 pm)
@Jeff,are this sale units only for the US market or for the whole world ? The game also was sold in europe (but it seems with the same success in Germany => amazon Germany kicked it already out of there list).
So if the units are not for the whole world, you have to add some more units (but also add some more money to the marketing).
overall it's still a financial bankrupt.
#28
03/30/2005 (6:13 pm)
Sven, worldwide it appears it sold 75K copies through February, a decent chunk of which were discounted.
#29
Its funny how Starsiege: 2845 is now using TSE
Just my two cents"
Jeff they would use unreal 2k4 as orignaly planned but VUG wouldnt let them. The problem isnt unreal its the "enhancments"they made to unreal. with all they did to the engin they might as well have started from scrach.....
03/30/2005 (6:59 pm)
"Jeff Wilkinson (Mar 30, 2005 at 03:39 GMT) Its funny how Starsiege: 2845 is now using TSE
Just my two cents"
Jeff they would use unreal 2k4 as orignaly planned but VUG wouldnt let them. The problem isnt unreal its the "enhancments"they made to unreal. with all they did to the engin they might as well have started from scrach.....
#30
I agree though, Jeff's completely right. You cant use a "formula". People looked at T:V and saw that:
1) It wasnt "tribes", it had a new engine, new developers, bigger budget etc
2) It played differently
I'm sure it would have actually done better if it had used Torque. I'm not just saying that, I dont mean technically it wasnt good, but the perception was already there from the beginning that Tribes and the engine that creates tribes is kind of interchangable.
We still see torque games and mentally think of tribes right?
And the whole box thing gave me a giggle. I've seen some REALLY naff boxes coming from our publishers over the years. The better (and more savvy) developers these days take control of those kind of things.
Dont leave that crap to chance! get a professional!
Sometimes, the team making the game ARE the soul of the game. Change the team, the soul is lost.
03/30/2005 (7:15 pm)
From what I recall, Tribes 2 wasnt a huge "hit" either, but definitely made 43k sales look silly.I agree though, Jeff's completely right. You cant use a "formula". People looked at T:V and saw that:
1) It wasnt "tribes", it had a new engine, new developers, bigger budget etc
2) It played differently
I'm sure it would have actually done better if it had used Torque. I'm not just saying that, I dont mean technically it wasnt good, but the perception was already there from the beginning that Tribes and the engine that creates tribes is kind of interchangable.
We still see torque games and mentally think of tribes right?
And the whole box thing gave me a giggle. I've seen some REALLY naff boxes coming from our publishers over the years. The better (and more savvy) developers these days take control of those kind of things.
Dont leave that crap to chance! get a professional!
Sometimes, the team making the game ARE the soul of the game. Change the team, the soul is lost.
#31
03/30/2005 (8:33 pm)
I still don't understand what the hell they were thinking with the TV Inventory station setup. It was so slow and clunky.
#32
And Starsiege: 2845 wasn't able to run on the "T:V Engine" because they basically streamlined the whole thing for Tribes. How they're going to make another game with it (Swat 4, for instance), who knows. With so little room to work with, changing the game around so radically for something like walking vehicles just wasn't functional. Then again, neither was UT2K3's version. There were numerous trials in trying to work with it as well, but they were never as obvious because development wasn't far enough along to run into them yet. I imagine if 2845 had never gained as much "hype," if you want to call it that, as it has now, the project would have died sometime late last year or lost its scope, if not earlier, simply because of limitations. Thankfully, the game has enough momentum behind it now to garner freelance support for yet another engine switch (the game was originally planned as a BF1942 mod, then a UT2K4 mod, then a T:V mod, then finally, a TSE game).
Point being, there's nothing wrong with T:V's code perse, it's just too well-made, you could say. With 2845 peering through Irrational's window the whole time, I'm surprised they didn't do more to help the 2845 staff. They'd have to have known what streamlining the code would have done, not only to Starsiege but also to any other mods. What surprises me now is that they touted T:V as being extremely mod-friendly when it first started development, even knowing the huge amount of client-side limitations UT2K3's engine already imposed.
03/30/2005 (9:17 pm)
Honestly, Tribes 2 was the best-selling game of the series. It didn't have the highest peak player base though, and it lost a lot of it when the game wouldn't even work out of the box, but Starsiege: Tribes' success was derived mainly through its heavy pirating. It was popular because it was free to most of Europe. Seems like T:V hasn't even been released in Europe yet.And Starsiege: 2845 wasn't able to run on the "T:V Engine" because they basically streamlined the whole thing for Tribes. How they're going to make another game with it (Swat 4, for instance), who knows. With so little room to work with, changing the game around so radically for something like walking vehicles just wasn't functional. Then again, neither was UT2K3's version. There were numerous trials in trying to work with it as well, but they were never as obvious because development wasn't far enough along to run into them yet. I imagine if 2845 had never gained as much "hype," if you want to call it that, as it has now, the project would have died sometime late last year or lost its scope, if not earlier, simply because of limitations. Thankfully, the game has enough momentum behind it now to garner freelance support for yet another engine switch (the game was originally planned as a BF1942 mod, then a UT2K4 mod, then a T:V mod, then finally, a TSE game).
Point being, there's nothing wrong with T:V's code perse, it's just too well-made, you could say. With 2845 peering through Irrational's window the whole time, I'm surprised they didn't do more to help the 2845 staff. They'd have to have known what streamlining the code would have done, not only to Starsiege but also to any other mods. What surprises me now is that they touted T:V as being extremely mod-friendly when it first started development, even knowing the huge amount of client-side limitations UT2K3's engine already imposed.
#33
Wish Vivendi had figured that out before they killed Dynamix.
03/30/2005 (10:56 pm)
Quote:Sometimes, the team making the game ARE the soul of the game. Change the team, the soul is lost.
Wish Vivendi had figured that out before they killed Dynamix.
#34
03/31/2005 (4:36 am)
Re: Duke Nukem Forever... someone make it with Torque.. that'd be so easy lol 
#35
03/31/2005 (2:43 pm)
As a programmer type it is still SO hard for me to grasp all these huge millions being thrown down the drain. You'd think ppl with that much money to invest would do better playing roulette or black jack. 
#36
03/31/2005 (3:42 pm)
Not suprised really, especially when marketing had such heavy input on the game's direction at the start.
#37
This is a huge problem. I think console games fair better at least in the states from copies.
Like for instance. Codemasters Operation Flashpoint. Very good reliable and popular foreign
FPS. But it's HACKed to hell and back. As far as the warez cracked versions going around.
03/31/2005 (6:01 pm)
You know.. I wonder what kind of financial impact hacking / warez had on Vengence?This is a huge problem. I think console games fair better at least in the states from copies.
Like for instance. Codemasters Operation Flashpoint. Very good reliable and popular foreign
FPS. But it's HACKed to hell and back. As far as the warez cracked versions going around.
#38
04/01/2005 (1:07 am)
40,000 might be low for them... but I would love to sell 40K copies of my game...
#39
Well, if you play BlackJack by the book and counting the cards, you stand with a 51% chance of winning. Maybe they would do better?
04/01/2005 (4:42 pm)
"As a programmer type it is still SO hard for me to grasp all these huge millions being thrown down the drain. You'd think ppl with that much money to invest would do better playing roulette or black jack."Well, if you play BlackJack by the book and counting the cards, you stand with a 51% chance of winning. Maybe they would do better?
#40
Perhaps we're naive, but I totally agree with you.
Go to a local college and find some interested undergrad art students. If you wave $20 per peice for artwork for your game, plus credits, I doubt you will have many that say no. Raw undirected talent comes surprisingly cheap. HIRE an art company (locally) and you could probably have ALL the artwork generated for $50-$75k.
Say you don't have a programmer. There's a big cost. You'll need two (engine + script)... but you can still wave $25k per year at some younger guys and get people who will code on thier own time at home because they love it.
OMG Torque License! $150.
Ok... Splurge and get a tiny office in some office park... $30k per annum.
Music? Go back to the college music department and look for that wierd guy that loves the Macintosh. $100 per tune .
Maybe I'm just used to dumpster diving... But give me $1,000,000 and I'll give you 3 games.
Marketing and distribution costs not withstanding. ;)
04/01/2005 (7:28 pm)
@Paul:Perhaps we're naive, but I totally agree with you.
Go to a local college and find some interested undergrad art students. If you wave $20 per peice for artwork for your game, plus credits, I doubt you will have many that say no. Raw undirected talent comes surprisingly cheap. HIRE an art company (locally) and you could probably have ALL the artwork generated for $50-$75k.
Say you don't have a programmer. There's a big cost. You'll need two (engine + script)... but you can still wave $25k per year at some younger guys and get people who will code on thier own time at home because they love it.
OMG Torque License! $150.
Ok... Splurge and get a tiny office in some office park... $30k per annum.
Music? Go back to the college music department and look for that wierd guy that loves the Macintosh. $100 per tune .
Maybe I'm just used to dumpster diving... But give me $1,000,000 and I'll give you 3 games.
Marketing and distribution costs not withstanding. ;)
Torque Owner Jay Barnson
Of course, something that fails QUITE this spectacularly (like Daikatana - which I think also sold only 40K copies after a MUCH bigger investment) can sink a company.