Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 585 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
View Stats
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
"Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
#162
What the graph below shows is the cumulative effects of the gravitational events. The red line shows the cumulative effects of all the pulling and pushing of larger than normal gravitational and tidal forces. The last event the "coup de grace" occurs on August 19th with the next lunar perigee (when the moon is closest to earth). The moon is very close to the sun, although there is not a Syzygy, they are very close together at the lunar perigee. The tides will be larger than normal, and will follow the path of the eclipse. This next perigee will continue the tectonic weakening laid down by the total solar eclipse.
Here are the earthquakes I've correctly predicted with my cumulative force theory below. Notice how the theory shows how the force builds after the events. This is what I noticed on July 28th, and why I posted my force graph. It turned out to be an accurate prediction of the August 9th -12th quakes. All that remains is the 4th event on August 19th. If my model is correct, then the peak of the force will be on August 22nd 2009.
Note, we can start the 7+ quakes again as early as the 16th. I don't think will will have any more until then. We did not get quakes today, so I think the fall off has begun, but as you can see (red line in the graph above) the fall off does not last for more than a few days. The moon is moving 3,000 kilometers a day closer to earth. On august 19th it reaches perigee. By August 22nd the cumulative force acting to remove friction between the plates will reach its peak. I expect really bad things to happen in this region on August 22nd.
Adding today's data to refine the prediction, it looks like August 17th will be the start of the problems, and August 23rd or 24th will mark the last day. If we get the quakes, I hope this hits a home run for earthquake prediction. I hope its not ignored.
The only hold out is Taiwan. It has not had a 7+ yet. Neither has the Iwo Jima Islands. Taiwan is due.
The only good news is, that after all of this is done, all the pressure built up in the plates will have been released. That means (if my theory is correct) no more major quakes in these regions will occur for probably the rest of the year.
The next event is the lunar perigee on August 19th when the moon comes closest to earth in its orbit. What does this look like? Where is the moon in relation to the sun?
August 19th 2009 - Japan
The view you see above is from Stellarium. It is an opensource astronomical tool. The view you see is from Japan on August 19th facing east at about 19:00 Hrs UT. The moon is pretty close to the sun at perigee so we have yet another combined gravitational pull, higher than normal tides and in my opinion and extra push against a new weak friction point between the tectonic plates.
The places where we had weak or even strong earthquakes last week has moved the friction point between the plates. The friction is weak here, and it all that keeps the plates from sliding further. Now the moon is going to give a fourth and final big push.
That is why we are going to have huge quakes in this region August 17th - August 25th. We had Zero 6+ magnitude quakes in Japan, Taiwan and the third circle all this year until August 9th 2009. As of today we had 4 such events all above 6.0 on the Richter scale. According to my theory that is a result of the third push, the Syzygy on August 6th.
Here are the four 6.0 + Magnitude earthquakes produced by the third Syzygy. All within my prediction circles and all based on the cumulative force graph I produced on July 28th.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kdb4
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kcaz
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090811052120391-110507.html
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kfcp
View Stats
08/13/2009 (12:30 am)
Well the page rolled, so its time to summarize again. To summarize we had 3 events, and the quakes got bigger with each event. We had a lunar eclipse on July 7th, We had a total solar eclipse only July 22nd, and we had another lunar eclipse on August 6th.What the graph below shows is the cumulative effects of the gravitational events. The red line shows the cumulative effects of all the pulling and pushing of larger than normal gravitational and tidal forces. The last event the "coup de grace" occurs on August 19th with the next lunar perigee (when the moon is closest to earth). The moon is very close to the sun, although there is not a Syzygy, they are very close together at the lunar perigee. The tides will be larger than normal, and will follow the path of the eclipse. This next perigee will continue the tectonic weakening laid down by the total solar eclipse.
Here are the earthquakes I've correctly predicted with my cumulative force theory below. Notice how the theory shows how the force builds after the events. This is what I noticed on July 28th, and why I posted my force graph. It turned out to be an accurate prediction of the August 9th -12th quakes. All that remains is the 4th event on August 19th. If my model is correct, then the peak of the force will be on August 22nd 2009.
Note, we can start the 7+ quakes again as early as the 16th. I don't think will will have any more until then. We did not get quakes today, so I think the fall off has begun, but as you can see (red line in the graph above) the fall off does not last for more than a few days. The moon is moving 3,000 kilometers a day closer to earth. On august 19th it reaches perigee. By August 22nd the cumulative force acting to remove friction between the plates will reach its peak. I expect really bad things to happen in this region on August 22nd.
Adding today's data to refine the prediction, it looks like August 17th will be the start of the problems, and August 23rd or 24th will mark the last day. If we get the quakes, I hope this hits a home run for earthquake prediction. I hope its not ignored.
The only hold out is Taiwan. It has not had a 7+ yet. Neither has the Iwo Jima Islands. Taiwan is due.
The only good news is, that after all of this is done, all the pressure built up in the plates will have been released. That means (if my theory is correct) no more major quakes in these regions will occur for probably the rest of the year.
The next event is the lunar perigee on August 19th when the moon comes closest to earth in its orbit. What does this look like? Where is the moon in relation to the sun?
August 19th 2009 - Japan
The view you see above is from Stellarium. It is an opensource astronomical tool. The view you see is from Japan on August 19th facing east at about 19:00 Hrs UT. The moon is pretty close to the sun at perigee so we have yet another combined gravitational pull, higher than normal tides and in my opinion and extra push against a new weak friction point between the tectonic plates.
The places where we had weak or even strong earthquakes last week has moved the friction point between the plates. The friction is weak here, and it all that keeps the plates from sliding further. Now the moon is going to give a fourth and final big push.
That is why we are going to have huge quakes in this region August 17th - August 25th. We had Zero 6+ magnitude quakes in Japan, Taiwan and the third circle all this year until August 9th 2009. As of today we had 4 such events all above 6.0 on the Richter scale. According to my theory that is a result of the third push, the Syzygy on August 6th.
Here are the four 6.0 + Magnitude earthquakes produced by the third Syzygy. All within my prediction circles and all based on the cumulative force graph I produced on July 28th.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kdb4
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kcaz
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090811052120391-110507.html
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kfcp
#163
www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dat/nenpo/no48/48c0/a48c0p13.pdf
If the data is used to create a correlation to the lunar calendar, perhaps its possible to evaluate the probability for the ocurance of a major quake.
08/13/2009 (12:57 am)
I just came over a paper listing all historic quakes in japan from 1586.www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dat/nenpo/no48/48c0/a48c0p13.pdf
If the data is used to create a correlation to the lunar calendar, perhaps its possible to evaluate the probability for the ocurance of a major quake.
#164
"We believe the recent pattern suggests rapid energy buildup to extremely high thresholds at the boundaries.
See details of the latest event at http://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/3rd-powerful-quake-in-3-days-strikes-japan-region/"
08/13/2009 (3:00 am)
Your answer is interesting - its similar to what feww sais:"We believe the recent pattern suggests rapid energy buildup to extremely high thresholds at the boundaries.
See details of the latest event at http://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/3rd-powerful-quake-in-3-days-strikes-japan-region/"
#165
08/13/2009 (4:37 am)
Britton/Sir.. Note from Tokyo (Fussa).. My 13 year old son felt the earthquake on Sunday (9 Aug 09 at appx 1930JST) evening.. Slight shaking on our 2nd floor but I didn't feel anything on the first floor. My wife felt the earthquake on Tuesday morning (11 Aug at appx 0130JST) and I vaguely remember it as I'm a hard sleeper. I remember hearing a noise but didn't know what it was. I didn't feel anything this morning (13 Aug at appx 0730JST) as the earthquake happened while I was driving to work, but a co-worker said that he felt the quake at work as he saw office furniture shake. Thankfully nothing to dramatic or damaging. Just wanted to drop a line. Very, very interesting watching your theory unfold. Very respectfully, Jason.
#166
Home page: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html
Tokai Earthquake Prediction: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake_tokai/
Earthquake Early Warning Tool: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew.html
Earthquake Info: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/quake_local_index.html
08/13/2009 (4:59 am)
Evening again from Tokyo Sir. Would like to send along some links that I picked up when I did a search on the source (ended up being Mount Asama) of the volcanic ash that we woke up to on the ground in western Tokyo (Kanto Plain/Fussa) on the morning of 9 Feb 09. The links are to the Japan Meteorological Society. They have info and warnings on their site for Japan covering everything from weather, to volcanic activity and earthquakes. Am attaching some of the links below. Hopefully they're helpful and of use.Home page: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html
Tokai Earthquake Prediction: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake_tokai/
Earthquake Early Warning Tool: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew.html
Earthquake Info: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/quake_local_index.html
#167
Failed predictions of "The big one"
Yoshio Kushida September 27, 2003
Mr Kushida predicted a quake measuring 7.0 or greater on the Richter scale would hit the Tokyo area on Tuesday or Wednesday last week. Those days passed uneventfully. But on Saturday, the city shook, although, as it turned out, the temblor measured 5.5. Mr Kushida believes that changes in electromagnetic radio waves are a harbinger of quakes, a discovery he happened upon after the last disastrous one to hit Japan, when more than 6400 people were killed in Kobe in 1995.
January 13, 1998
An abnormal crustal change has occurred. A strain meter buried more than 600 feet beneath the ground some 100 miles southwest of Tokyo was showing unusual readings. Could this be a sign that a major earthquake was about to occur?
So nobody knows if the "Big One" or the Tokai quake might occur - but still a like M5 or M6 quake could happen i guess. Another issue for a quake is the ground acceleration (GAL). I think this is maybe even more important than the magnitude.
For JMA, I wonder if they can predict the Tokai earthquake successfully.. I never heard of a successful prediction of a major quake based on abnormal crustal movements..
Oh, and here is something interesting about EQ clouds: www.youtube.com/watch?gl=JP&hl=ja&v=DXwr2aTZuy8
08/13/2009 (5:02 am)
Also fitting to this are two mispredictions of the past years:Failed predictions of "The big one"
Yoshio Kushida September 27, 2003
Mr Kushida predicted a quake measuring 7.0 or greater on the Richter scale would hit the Tokyo area on Tuesday or Wednesday last week. Those days passed uneventfully. But on Saturday, the city shook, although, as it turned out, the temblor measured 5.5. Mr Kushida believes that changes in electromagnetic radio waves are a harbinger of quakes, a discovery he happened upon after the last disastrous one to hit Japan, when more than 6400 people were killed in Kobe in 1995.
January 13, 1998
An abnormal crustal change has occurred. A strain meter buried more than 600 feet beneath the ground some 100 miles southwest of Tokyo was showing unusual readings. Could this be a sign that a major earthquake was about to occur?
So nobody knows if the "Big One" or the Tokai quake might occur - but still a like M5 or M6 quake could happen i guess. Another issue for a quake is the ground acceleration (GAL). I think this is maybe even more important than the magnitude.
For JMA, I wonder if they can predict the Tokai earthquake successfully.. I never heard of a successful prediction of a major quake based on abnormal crustal movements..
Oh, and here is something interesting about EQ clouds: www.youtube.com/watch?gl=JP&hl=ja&v=DXwr2aTZuy8
#168
The historic list you provided seems to have been filtered to land based quakes only. There is an important 5.4 March 17 1988 quake not listed. That quake is important to my theory. My fear is that a48c0p13.pdf list is missing other important quakes, and cannot be used.
According to my cumulative force graph, after the next 3 days, by August 16th, is when the next round of quakes could begin again. If the force graph is correct, these quakes can last for over a week.
@Jason, I guess you can be our "man on the ground reporter" over the next few days. If you do see any major damage from quakes, be sure snap a digital photo if you can.
08/13/2009 (7:37 am)
@Sven, the experiment they did reproducing the earthquake clouds in a fish tank was very impressive. Again that is a last minute warning. At least they are still trying to find some sort of method to predict earthquakes.The historic list you provided seems to have been filtered to land based quakes only. There is an important 5.4 March 17 1988 quake not listed. That quake is important to my theory. My fear is that a48c0p13.pdf list is missing other important quakes, and cannot be used.
According to my cumulative force graph, after the next 3 days, by August 16th, is when the next round of quakes could begin again. If the force graph is correct, these quakes can last for over a week.
@Jason, I guess you can be our "man on the ground reporter" over the next few days. If you do see any major damage from quakes, be sure snap a digital photo if you can.
#169
www.geoq.ru/news_info11e.htm
Probability of strong earthquake from Ms>7.8 in the seismic system Japan is in August 12 equal to Р=48% (on entropy PW=68%, and on cumulative energy PK=70%) (see Fig.2 and Tab.1). Since December 2008 probability grew by 5%. If after the first quake on August 10 this increase was 4%, then after the second push on August 12 it grew by 1%!
08/13/2009 (8:13 am)
Here another quake prediction site i just came across:www.geoq.ru/news_info11e.htm
Probability of strong earthquake from Ms>7.8 in the seismic system Japan is in August 12 equal to Р=48% (on entropy PW=68%, and on cumulative energy PK=70%) (see Fig.2 and Tab.1). Since December 2008 probability grew by 5%. If after the first quake on August 10 this increase was 4%, then after the second push on August 12 it grew by 1%!
#170
My theory is based on smaller quakes sliding into new weaker fiction points and then becoming larger ones with the next lunar push. So I'm sticking with my same location. I know the tokai region has the potential for an 8.5 quake, and its been building for 150 years. In my opinion, the energy is no where near released in the Tokai region. If you look at the order of magnitude its a 10 fold increase from a 6 to 7. So the 7.1 and the 6.1 and 6.7 combined is less than one tenth of the potential of the 8.5 that has been building in the tokai region.
08/13/2009 (8:25 am)
@Sven, If I'm reading this correctly they think the region that had the quakes is now safe due to all the energy being released, and that the next quakes will be in the north east part of Japan. It could be. They might be correct. My theory is based on smaller quakes sliding into new weaker fiction points and then becoming larger ones with the next lunar push. So I'm sticking with my same location. I know the tokai region has the potential for an 8.5 quake, and its been building for 150 years. In my opinion, the energy is no where near released in the Tokai region. If you look at the order of magnitude its a 10 fold increase from a 6 to 7. So the 7.1 and the 6.1 and 6.7 combined is less than one tenth of the potential of the 8.5 that has been building in the tokai region.
#171
Yes, the Tokai or Kanto energy is not released yet and the chance for both to occur is high. However, taking a look at the history, long eclipses and major quakes rarely match.. sometimes there are years in between.
08/13/2009 (9:31 am)
Hm.. I am not sure the region is safe - they also write the probability for a major quake increased. Maybe in the Tokai region energy has been released a bit, but taking a look on the air ions, its not over yet - that whats said by the feww forecast too.Yes, the Tokai or Kanto energy is not released yet and the chance for both to occur is high. However, taking a look at the history, long eclipses and major quakes rarely match.. sometimes there are years in between.
#172
I think the reason is this, the really big ones have so much pressure that they pop when they are good and ready. The friction between the plates is greater than the forces of an eclipse can alleviate.
What I'm suggesting is that with this 2009 total solar eclipse we have 4 significant pushes instead of the usual one or two. The third push gave us the big ones popping around the tokai area. These latest big quakes are alleviating the pressure at the tectonic level. So the cumulative effect of all the shifting in and around the Tokai area could have yet another effect. The earthquakes have relieved the neighboring pressure that was also holding back pieces of the Tokai region. So now we have a cumulative weak effect on the Tokai region and from the 3 lunar events, and a stronger neighboring pressure release from the larger quakes. Maybe this is enough to encourage the tokai region move, since after 150 years it is already ready to move.
Remember it takes about 150 years. Its not going to wait much longer anyway. So any eclipses over the past 150 years would not trigger it, maybe this one will because its good and ready.
This was my original idea for picking this 2009 eclipse, the 2009 date look good for the natural cycle of the big 8.5 tokai quake.
1498
1605 - Feb 3rd
1707 - October 28th
1854 - December 23rd, 9 AM
2009 - August ?
But, as you say, I checked and all the other tokai quakes listed above did not have a total eclipse associated with them.
For example in 1707 we had 4 partial solar eclipses 2 near the north pole and 2 near the south pole. The last lunar eclipse was near Japan on October 11th 1707. The last solar eclipse near the south pole was on October 25th 3 days before the tokai quake. Sounds like a correlation right? October 11th, October 23rd and boom Tokai quake 5 days later on October 28th. Fits the model, right? No, it does not.
We did not have a solar eclipse over Japan. The October 23rd eclipse was a partial eclipse south of Chile near Antarctica. So, I don't see how it could be related.
08/13/2009 (10:43 am)
@Sven, I've noticed that there is a very poor correlation to the very big ones, but a great correlation to the medium and big earthquakes with total solar eclipses.I think the reason is this, the really big ones have so much pressure that they pop when they are good and ready. The friction between the plates is greater than the forces of an eclipse can alleviate.
What I'm suggesting is that with this 2009 total solar eclipse we have 4 significant pushes instead of the usual one or two. The third push gave us the big ones popping around the tokai area. These latest big quakes are alleviating the pressure at the tectonic level. So the cumulative effect of all the shifting in and around the Tokai area could have yet another effect. The earthquakes have relieved the neighboring pressure that was also holding back pieces of the Tokai region. So now we have a cumulative weak effect on the Tokai region and from the 3 lunar events, and a stronger neighboring pressure release from the larger quakes. Maybe this is enough to encourage the tokai region move, since after 150 years it is already ready to move.
Remember it takes about 150 years. Its not going to wait much longer anyway. So any eclipses over the past 150 years would not trigger it, maybe this one will because its good and ready.
This was my original idea for picking this 2009 eclipse, the 2009 date look good for the natural cycle of the big 8.5 tokai quake.
1498
1605 - Feb 3rd
1707 - October 28th
1854 - December 23rd, 9 AM
2009 - August ?
But, as you say, I checked and all the other tokai quakes listed above did not have a total eclipse associated with them.
For example in 1707 we had 4 partial solar eclipses 2 near the north pole and 2 near the south pole. The last lunar eclipse was near Japan on October 11th 1707. The last solar eclipse near the south pole was on October 25th 3 days before the tokai quake. Sounds like a correlation right? October 11th, October 23rd and boom Tokai quake 5 days later on October 28th. Fits the model, right? No, it does not.
We did not have a solar eclipse over Japan. The October 23rd eclipse was a partial eclipse south of Chile near Antarctica. So, I don't see how it could be related.
#173
"Predicting a Tokai earthquake is possible because a pre-slip is believed to be detectable. At its meeting Tuesday after the Suruga Bay quake, the committee discussed whether a pre-slip was observed. After examining the distribution of aftershocks and data from ground-based devices to measure seismic distortions, the committee concluded Tuesday's quake likely was unrelated to the much-feared Tokai earthquake phenomenon. However, a sizable number of seismological experts outside the committee said it could not be ruled out that Tuesday's temblor might be connected to a Tokai earthquake. Masakazu Otake, professor emeritus of Tohoku University, said: "The direction in which the fault slid in the latest quake is nearly identical to that of the subducting ocean plates. I'm afraid a Tokai earthquake might happen earlier.""
08/13/2009 (8:32 pm)
For the Tokai quake, I just found a news where scientists discussed about the probability due to the occurred M6.5: www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20090813TDY03103.htm"Predicting a Tokai earthquake is possible because a pre-slip is believed to be detectable. At its meeting Tuesday after the Suruga Bay quake, the committee discussed whether a pre-slip was observed. After examining the distribution of aftershocks and data from ground-based devices to measure seismic distortions, the committee concluded Tuesday's quake likely was unrelated to the much-feared Tokai earthquake phenomenon. However, a sizable number of seismological experts outside the committee said it could not be ruled out that Tuesday's temblor might be connected to a Tokai earthquake. Masakazu Otake, professor emeritus of Tohoku University, said: "The direction in which the fault slid in the latest quake is nearly identical to that of the subducting ocean plates. I'm afraid a Tokai earthquake might happen earlier.""
#174
Nice article! You know this is my first attempt at earthquake prediction and I have to say its not too hard. Yep, I'd say that we had that Tokai slip already with the recent quakes. I had no idea that the pre-slip was something they had tied to the tokai quake, but it makes sense. I picked this spot because it was at the junction of 3 tectonic plates. The Eurasian plate rests on top of two subducted plates. It makes sense that one has to slip before the other one can. Its kind of like pulling the pin on a grenade... 3... 2... 1...
Again, Japan spends billions on trying to predict this kind of thing. I promise you we can build a simulator packed with all these goodies for much cheaper. I wonder if we get some sort of award or government grant if we called it correctly. Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
So far the donations are at zero dollars and zero cents for the simulator. And thats after predicting a 7.1 with the formula that will go into the model behind the simulator. Maybe we need the 8.5 for funding.
Just to be clear, with my cumulative force model I predict M6 and M7+ quakes starting August 16th and continuing through August 25th I also believe that we may have the Tokai quake during this time. I predict the greatest chance for an M8 quake will be on August 22nd 2009
08/13/2009 (9:33 pm)
@Sven,Nice article! You know this is my first attempt at earthquake prediction and I have to say its not too hard. Yep, I'd say that we had that Tokai slip already with the recent quakes. I had no idea that the pre-slip was something they had tied to the tokai quake, but it makes sense. I picked this spot because it was at the junction of 3 tectonic plates. The Eurasian plate rests on top of two subducted plates. It makes sense that one has to slip before the other one can. Its kind of like pulling the pin on a grenade... 3... 2... 1...
Again, Japan spends billions on trying to predict this kind of thing. I promise you we can build a simulator packed with all these goodies for much cheaper. I wonder if we get some sort of award or government grant if we called it correctly. Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
So far the donations are at zero dollars and zero cents for the simulator. And thats after predicting a 7.1 with the formula that will go into the model behind the simulator. Maybe we need the 8.5 for funding.
Just to be clear, with my cumulative force model I predict M6 and M7+ quakes starting August 16th and continuing through August 25th I also believe that we may have the Tokai quake during this time. I predict the greatest chance for an M8 quake will be on August 22nd 2009
#175
For the Simulator, the best would be one that takes multiple sources into account - like physical force-simulations of tectonic plate movements, historical quakes, moon/star/sun constellations, ion measurements and perhaps even meteorological data from satellite images. I think everything together could make a good forecast. If more satellites like the www.quakefinder.com/ are installed, those data could be used too.
08/13/2009 (11:51 pm)
If an M8 really happens around 20th in/near Japan, I would donate too :-)For the Simulator, the best would be one that takes multiple sources into account - like physical force-simulations of tectonic plate movements, historical quakes, moon/star/sun constellations, ion measurements and perhaps even meteorological data from satellite images. I think everything together could make a good forecast. If more satellites like the www.quakefinder.com/ are installed, those data could be used too.
#176
The moon is actually accelerating in its orbit due to the attraction of the tidal forces, and its slowly moving away from earth. This means that its gravitational pull is getting weaker.
In my mind there is no doubt that the moon plays a major role in continental drift, and that it played a larger role in the past. If my theory is correct then we should see that the continental drift rate was greater a billion years ago when the moon was 15 times closer than it is today. This also means that earthquakes were far greater and more common a billion years than they are today.
It also means that perhaps a billion years from now continental drift will begin to shut down, and earthquakes may be very mild or even a thing of the very distant past. We will have a very geologically stable planet in the very distant future.
08/14/2009 (6:57 am)
I've been thinking more about the larger implication is if this theory is correct. Again, if this theory is correct then the moon is the driving force behind the plate tectonics. It is the reason we have continental drift in the first place.The moon is actually accelerating in its orbit due to the attraction of the tidal forces, and its slowly moving away from earth. This means that its gravitational pull is getting weaker.
In my mind there is no doubt that the moon plays a major role in continental drift, and that it played a larger role in the past. If my theory is correct then we should see that the continental drift rate was greater a billion years ago when the moon was 15 times closer than it is today. This also means that earthquakes were far greater and more common a billion years than they are today.
It also means that perhaps a billion years from now continental drift will begin to shut down, and earthquakes may be very mild or even a thing of the very distant past. We will have a very geologically stable planet in the very distant future.
#177
Today, I just came over another site predicting an M3-6 near Tokyo in the next days:
quake_vnb.rshu.ru/index_eng.html
quake_vnb.rshu.ru/pics/eq_0.gif
The publications there are interesting - like this one "Influence of perturbations of interplanetary medium on seismicity and atmosphere of Earth"
08/14/2009 (7:58 am)
I think that planetary movements like from the moon play a major role too. Its known already that the earth for example causes earthquakes on the moon. Today, I just came over another site predicting an M3-6 near Tokyo in the next days:
quake_vnb.rshu.ru/index_eng.html
quake_vnb.rshu.ru/pics/eq_0.gif
The publications there are interesting - like this one "Influence of perturbations of interplanetary medium on seismicity and atmosphere of Earth"
#178
i don't think you're going to drop many jaws in the scientific community with this moon-as-tectonic-force thing. tidal forces have been considered in plate tectonics ever since the theory of plate tectonics itself was first advanced by Alfred Wegener back in 1915.
08/14/2009 (9:57 am)
> You realize what the larger implication is if this theory is correct. If this theory is correct then the moon is the driving force behind the plate tectonics. Its is the reason we have continental drift in the first place.i don't think you're going to drop many jaws in the scientific community with this moon-as-tectonic-force thing. tidal forces have been considered in plate tectonics ever since the theory of plate tectonics itself was first advanced by Alfred Wegener back in 1915.
#179
I find it incredible that geologists can accept tidal forces as a large reason we have tectonic plate movements on the one hand, and then a total denial that the tidal force has any impact on the actual moment the plates move, on the other.
And the last step is a proven fact, these tidal forces are a direct result of the location of the earth moon and sun. It seems pretty obvious to me. Based on these observations we can draw one logical conclusion; the location of the moon and its gravitational forces can cause an earthquake.
The only reason this is not inherently obvious to any study of the effect, is that it may take a combined effort over many days of high tides to produce a big M6 or M7 earthquake. The M6 and M7 quakes are the only ones we as humans seem to take notice of. In other words as humans we only pay attention when our house gets knocked over or a bridge collapses.
Don't take my word for it, take a look at the results of my own experiment and the results of the cumulative force theory. It works. We can go back and look at other quakes, and I'm sure just as the paper in Taiwan showed, there is a correlation, between tidal forces during and shortly after an eclipse and earthquakes.
Take look at this study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
08/14/2009 (10:22 am)
@Orion, if that is true, and they have considered the impact of tidal forces on plate tectonic movement, then why cant they deduce the fact that this can cause earthquakes? Isn't that what happens when one plate moves beneath another?I find it incredible that geologists can accept tidal forces as a large reason we have tectonic plate movements on the one hand, and then a total denial that the tidal force has any impact on the actual moment the plates move, on the other.
And the last step is a proven fact, these tidal forces are a direct result of the location of the earth moon and sun. It seems pretty obvious to me. Based on these observations we can draw one logical conclusion; the location of the moon and its gravitational forces can cause an earthquake.
The only reason this is not inherently obvious to any study of the effect, is that it may take a combined effort over many days of high tides to produce a big M6 or M7 earthquake. The M6 and M7 quakes are the only ones we as humans seem to take notice of. In other words as humans we only pay attention when our house gets knocked over or a bridge collapses.
Don't take my word for it, take a look at the results of my own experiment and the results of the cumulative force theory. It works. We can go back and look at other quakes, and I'm sure just as the paper in Taiwan showed, there is a correlation, between tidal forces during and shortly after an eclipse and earthquakes.
Take look at this study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
#180
This means a fluid simulation of the lithosphere might be a further major factor for an earthquake simulator i guess. Now there is of course the question of how to examine those fluid movements. In case of the weather, satellite images can be used - but i dont know any method to track underground fluid movements..
Another interesting part of the article:
In a study published in the January-February 2006 issue of the Geological Society of America Bulletin, a team of Italian and U.S. scientists argued that the westward component of every plate's motion is due to Earth's rotation and the tidal friction of the moon. As the Earth spins eastward beneath the moon, they say, the moon's gravity ever so slightly pulls the Earth's surface layer back westward. It has also been suggested (albeit, controversially) that this observation may also explain why Venus and Mars have no plate tectonics since Venus has no moon, and Mars' moons are too small to have significant tidal effects on Mars.[26] This is not, however, a new argument.
It was originally raised by the "father" of the plate tectonics hypothesis, Alfred Wegener. It was challenged by the physicist Harold Jeffreys who calculated that the magnitude of tidal friction required would have quickly brought the Earth's rotation to a halt long ago. Many plates are moving north and eastward, and the dominantly westward motion of the Pacific ocean basins is simply from the eastward bias of the Pacific spreading center (which is not a predicted manifestation of such lunar forces). It is argued, however, that relative to the lower mantle, there is a slight westward component in the motions of all the plates.
The driving forces of plate motion are, still very active subjects of on-going discussion and research in the geophysical community.
08/14/2009 (4:27 pm)
Taking a look on an entry of Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plate_tectonics), the force driving plates is described as follows: "The current view, although it is still a matter of some debate, is that excess density of the oceanic lithosphere sinking in subduction zones is the most powerful source of plate motion."This means a fluid simulation of the lithosphere might be a further major factor for an earthquake simulator i guess. Now there is of course the question of how to examine those fluid movements. In case of the weather, satellite images can be used - but i dont know any method to track underground fluid movements..
Another interesting part of the article:
In a study published in the January-February 2006 issue of the Geological Society of America Bulletin, a team of Italian and U.S. scientists argued that the westward component of every plate's motion is due to Earth's rotation and the tidal friction of the moon. As the Earth spins eastward beneath the moon, they say, the moon's gravity ever so slightly pulls the Earth's surface layer back westward. It has also been suggested (albeit, controversially) that this observation may also explain why Venus and Mars have no plate tectonics since Venus has no moon, and Mars' moons are too small to have significant tidal effects on Mars.[26] This is not, however, a new argument.
It was originally raised by the "father" of the plate tectonics hypothesis, Alfred Wegener. It was challenged by the physicist Harold Jeffreys who calculated that the magnitude of tidal friction required would have quickly brought the Earth's rotation to a halt long ago. Many plates are moving north and eastward, and the dominantly westward motion of the Pacific ocean basins is simply from the eastward bias of the Pacific spreading center (which is not a predicted manifestation of such lunar forces). It is argued, however, that relative to the lower mantle, there is a slight westward component in the motions of all the plates.
The driving forces of plate motion are, still very active subjects of on-going discussion and research in the geophysical community.
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