Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 585 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
View Stats
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
"Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
#142
We have big one in India Region, last night at 1:55:39 at epic center.
view on our half burmese blog that sharing weather and natural disaster informations, as much as I can.
As you have said in previous comments, posted by yourself, there were and the are a lot of shakes, at your predicted regions. If you can trim your theories a bit more and do the same to your simulation engines or models, we can have more accuracy on results, I really hope to see them in coming future.
You are almost success to your job, so I just want to beg you not to give up !
08/10/2009 (10:08 pm)
Hello Mr. Britton,We have big one in India Region, last night at 1:55:39 at epic center.
view on our half burmese blog that sharing weather and natural disaster informations, as much as I can.
As you have said in previous comments, posted by yourself, there were and the are a lot of shakes, at your predicted regions. If you can trim your theories a bit more and do the same to your simulation engines or models, we can have more accuracy on results, I really hope to see them in coming future.
You are almost success to your job, so I just want to beg you not to give up !
#143
08/11/2009 (1:35 am)
Good afternoon again Sir (Mr Britton).. Like Praven (post #141), I admittedly had the same reaction, but having been woken up last night by the quake near Tokyo (first time that's happened since my fam' and I moved to Tokyo), I wanted to see how things were going on your site. As with U Win Naing, I echo his sentiments to continue on refining your theory as you're definitely on to something. Thankfully, I've still got the extra supplies (basically little things) from the 21st of July and hope that they don't get used :). Anyways, just wanted to give morale support. Will definitely keep watching your progress and ideas. Best regards.
#144
@U Win, I was thinking about you and the rest of Burma yesterday. I really hate to make comments on areas I did not predict back in January. But the bottom line is you had several quakes in that area. What we are seeing is simple, small quakes become big quakes with the next lunar event. Now the next lunar event is the perigee on August 19th, but we approach perigee on the 16th and my cumulative force formula shows us back up to the level we were on August 9th, on August 16th. So I'd expect another big one near there too. You will probably get another big 7+ between August 17th and August 23rd near the spot you had the 7.6. A great deal of pressure has been released already. I would not expect anything higher than a 7, less than an 8.
@Jason, I expect the biggest quake yet to come in Japan. More than likely it will be between August 16th and August 23rd. I'm guessing 7.9 +. It will hit near the same spots it hit on July 22nd, August 9th and August 10th. (Right in my circle, the one I drew back in January)
You felt the quake in Tokyo? Did it cause any damage or just rumble like crazy? I think Tokyo is going to be okay, you might feel the effects of the big one, but Tokyo wont be to near the epicenter.
I expect the sparks to fly in the near future. Apparently my mathematical model is not perfect. I expected 7+ earthquakes today and tomorrow. I think the fall off may be faster than I expect. But what is correct (so far) is the day of the peak.
To summarize we had 3 events, and the quakes got bigger with each event. We had a lunar eclipse on July 7th, We had a total solar eclipse only July 22nd, and we had another lunar eclipse on August 6th.
What the graph below shows is the cumulative effects of the gravitational events. The red line shows the cumulative effects of all the pulling and pushing of larger than normal gravitational and tidal forces. The last event the "coup de grace" occurs on August 19th with the next lunar perigee (when the moon is closest to earth). The tides will be larger than normal, and will follow the path and continue the tectonic weakening laid down by the total solar eclipse.
Note, we can start the 7+ quakes again as early as the 16th. I don't think will will have any more until then. We did not get quakes today, so I think the fall off has begun, but as you can see (red line in the graph above) the fall off does not last for more than a few days. The moon is moving 3,000 kilometers a day closer to earth. On august 19th it reaches perigee. By August 22nd the cumulative force acting to remove friction between the plates will reach its peak. I expect really bad things to happen in this region on August 22nd.
Adding today's data to refine the prediction, it looks like August 17th will be the start of the problems, and August 23rd or 24th will mark the last day. If we get the quakes, I hope this hits a home run for earthquake prediction. I hope its not ignored.
The only hold out is Taiwan. It has not had a 7+ yet. Neither has the Iwo Jima Islands. Taiwan is due.
The only good news is, that after all of this is done, all the pressure built up in the plates will have been released. That means (if my theory is correct) no more major quakes in these regions will occur for probably the rest of the year.
View Stats
08/11/2009 (3:08 pm)
@Praven, everyone lost interest. Everyone but me that is. I've been expecting something like this. The hardest thing for me to explain was why we have a delay (after the gravitational pull). Seems to me we should have something happen on the same day. But we don't. I now think its a cumulative effect, you get the near the same pull day after day and then it breaks.@U Win, I was thinking about you and the rest of Burma yesterday. I really hate to make comments on areas I did not predict back in January. But the bottom line is you had several quakes in that area. What we are seeing is simple, small quakes become big quakes with the next lunar event. Now the next lunar event is the perigee on August 19th, but we approach perigee on the 16th and my cumulative force formula shows us back up to the level we were on August 9th, on August 16th. So I'd expect another big one near there too. You will probably get another big 7+ between August 17th and August 23rd near the spot you had the 7.6. A great deal of pressure has been released already. I would not expect anything higher than a 7, less than an 8.
@Jason, I expect the biggest quake yet to come in Japan. More than likely it will be between August 16th and August 23rd. I'm guessing 7.9 +. It will hit near the same spots it hit on July 22nd, August 9th and August 10th. (Right in my circle, the one I drew back in January)
You felt the quake in Tokyo? Did it cause any damage or just rumble like crazy? I think Tokyo is going to be okay, you might feel the effects of the big one, but Tokyo wont be to near the epicenter.
I expect the sparks to fly in the near future. Apparently my mathematical model is not perfect. I expected 7+ earthquakes today and tomorrow. I think the fall off may be faster than I expect. But what is correct (so far) is the day of the peak.
To summarize we had 3 events, and the quakes got bigger with each event. We had a lunar eclipse on July 7th, We had a total solar eclipse only July 22nd, and we had another lunar eclipse on August 6th.
What the graph below shows is the cumulative effects of the gravitational events. The red line shows the cumulative effects of all the pulling and pushing of larger than normal gravitational and tidal forces. The last event the "coup de grace" occurs on August 19th with the next lunar perigee (when the moon is closest to earth). The tides will be larger than normal, and will follow the path and continue the tectonic weakening laid down by the total solar eclipse.
Note, we can start the 7+ quakes again as early as the 16th. I don't think will will have any more until then. We did not get quakes today, so I think the fall off has begun, but as you can see (red line in the graph above) the fall off does not last for more than a few days. The moon is moving 3,000 kilometers a day closer to earth. On august 19th it reaches perigee. By August 22nd the cumulative force acting to remove friction between the plates will reach its peak. I expect really bad things to happen in this region on August 22nd.
Adding today's data to refine the prediction, it looks like August 17th will be the start of the problems, and August 23rd or 24th will mark the last day. If we get the quakes, I hope this hits a home run for earthquake prediction. I hope its not ignored.
The only hold out is Taiwan. It has not had a 7+ yet. Neither has the Iwo Jima Islands. Taiwan is due.
The only good news is, that after all of this is done, all the pressure built up in the plates will have been released. That means (if my theory is correct) no more major quakes in these regions will occur for probably the rest of the year.
#145
I chose Japan as the earth based location and I'm facing East at about 19:00 HRS UT. As you can see the Moon is very close to the Sun. Its not an eclipse but its darn close. This makes me pretty sure we will see the big fire works with in the next 12 days.
I'll be more specific, August 17th - August 25th in Japan, Taiwan and the Iwo Jima Islands I predict 7+ earthquakes. I'm adding in the 25th (instead of the 24th) to cover factors with the international date line.
August 19th 2009 - Japan
Above we see the moon is very close to the Sun on the August 19th perigee. Its not a total solar eclipse or a Syzygy, but it will have higher than normal tides associated with it.
August 20th 2009 - Japan
On August 20th, the day after the perigee, we see that the moon is still very close to the Sun. This is why I say the moon is still very closely following the eclipse path of July 22nd. It will carry in motion the final blow to the tectonic plates in this region. That is why I'd put big bucks on anyone willing to take bets, that we will have 7+ quakes shortly after this event.
If I'm right, do I get a cookie? If the whole world bought me a cookie I'd be set for life. Or better yet if these same people donated a dollar I'd have more than enough to build the worlds best earthquake simulator. If I am right you can donate here --> Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
Even a dollar would help. If there is enough interest in the public at large then we don't have to wait for the scientific community to catch up. We can build the simulator with public donations. No government grants needed. I've been studying the basics of the formulas behind the lunar and earth orbits, all that remains is perfecting my cumulative tectonic weakening model.
08/11/2009 (6:18 pm)
I've been studying the lunar path and earthquakes for about 6 months. Naturally, I'm familiar with plenty of opensource astronomical tools. I used Stellarium to determine the location of the moon during its next perigee. I'd like to show you the position of the sun and moon for the Lunar perigee on August 19th and August 20th. I chose Japan as the earth based location and I'm facing East at about 19:00 HRS UT. As you can see the Moon is very close to the Sun. Its not an eclipse but its darn close. This makes me pretty sure we will see the big fire works with in the next 12 days.
I'll be more specific, August 17th - August 25th in Japan, Taiwan and the Iwo Jima Islands I predict 7+ earthquakes. I'm adding in the 25th (instead of the 24th) to cover factors with the international date line.
August 19th 2009 - Japan
Above we see the moon is very close to the Sun on the August 19th perigee. Its not a total solar eclipse or a Syzygy, but it will have higher than normal tides associated with it.
August 20th 2009 - Japan
On August 20th, the day after the perigee, we see that the moon is still very close to the Sun. This is why I say the moon is still very closely following the eclipse path of July 22nd. It will carry in motion the final blow to the tectonic plates in this region. That is why I'd put big bucks on anyone willing to take bets, that we will have 7+ quakes shortly after this event.
If I'm right, do I get a cookie? If the whole world bought me a cookie I'd be set for life. Or better yet if these same people donated a dollar I'd have more than enough to build the worlds best earthquake simulator. If I am right you can donate here --> Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
Even a dollar would help. If there is enough interest in the public at large then we don't have to wait for the scientific community to catch up. We can build the simulator with public donations. No government grants needed. I've been studying the basics of the formulas behind the lunar and earth orbits, all that remains is perfecting my cumulative tectonic weakening model.
#146
Mr LaROche in fact I haven't I have been visiting this site frequently
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090811052120391-110507.html and check the link it is about the larger quake
Arun
08/11/2009 (9:37 pm)
everyone lost interest Mr LaROche in fact I haven't I have been visiting this site frequently
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090811052120391-110507.html and check the link it is about the larger quake
Arun
#147
At the day of the solar eclipse, the air-ion measurements near Tokyo have been fluctuating quite a lot, and the agency of the website also posed a warning for an M7-M8 EQ in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
translate.google.co.jp/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.e-pisco.jp%2Fr_ion%2Fattenti...
A different EQ warning for Tokyo did I find here:
feww.wordpress.com/2009/05/18/earthquake-forecast-tokyo-japan/
However, all state the same - a M7-M8 Quake in Japan near Tokyo in the next like 30 days. I also think the propability for a quake will be highest around Aug.20th, as its exactly the same moon-sun constellation as last month. (stardate.org/nightsky/moon/index.php?month=8&year=2009&css=moon.css&...)
Somebody else doing EQ forecasts based on moon-earth constallations is Rahul. He just made a forecast for the M6.5 quake. www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSUzJrR3d3k
As for the M6.9 quake in Japan,Sendai last year, it was triggered by the China,Sichuan EQ. The day after the Sichuan quake, the air-ions were very high, indicating stress in the rock below. Then exactly one month after, the quake happened.
Here the air-ion graph: www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/attention/080516.html
The current graphs near tokyo can be seen here:
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/chiba_minami-boso.html
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/kanagawa_atsugi.html
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/hyogo_kawanishi.html
08/12/2009 (2:00 am)
The theory looks interesting. Actually, you are not the only one predicting a major Quake for Japan in the next days.At the day of the solar eclipse, the air-ion measurements near Tokyo have been fluctuating quite a lot, and the agency of the website also posed a warning for an M7-M8 EQ in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
translate.google.co.jp/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.e-pisco.jp%2Fr_ion%2Fattenti...
A different EQ warning for Tokyo did I find here:
feww.wordpress.com/2009/05/18/earthquake-forecast-tokyo-japan/
However, all state the same - a M7-M8 Quake in Japan near Tokyo in the next like 30 days. I also think the propability for a quake will be highest around Aug.20th, as its exactly the same moon-sun constellation as last month. (stardate.org/nightsky/moon/index.php?month=8&year=2009&css=moon.css&...)
Somebody else doing EQ forecasts based on moon-earth constallations is Rahul. He just made a forecast for the M6.5 quake. www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSUzJrR3d3k
As for the M6.9 quake in Japan,Sendai last year, it was triggered by the China,Sichuan EQ. The day after the Sichuan quake, the air-ions were very high, indicating stress in the rock below. Then exactly one month after, the quake happened.
Here the air-ion graph: www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/attention/080516.html
The current graphs near tokyo can be seen here:
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/chiba_minami-boso.html
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/kanagawa_atsugi.html
www.e-pisco.jp/r_ion/data/hyogo_kawanishi.html
#148
@Sven, all this data is very interesting. What I find fascinating is that these methods are what I call "reactive prediction" in other words they do not explain why we have the quakes and cannot predict quakes years in advance. These methods react to changes in the environment a few days before the quake. My theory allows us to predict quakes decades in advance. Its also explains why we have the quakes in the first place. The lunar tectonic weakening theory has nice logical elegance in my mind.
If no one else is predicting quakes during the August 17th - August 24th window, then this is a nice clear shot for my theory. Even Jim Berkland's theory ends at the third Syzygy. I don't think he takes into account a possible cumulative effect. That is what I noticed watching the quakes from July 7th through July 30th, smaller quakes became bigger quakes as the days passed.
The next perigee on August 19th will follow a similar path as teh eclipse on July 22nd. My theory suggests that the frictional forces between the tectonic plates have been weakened with the passing of 3 major lunar events, repeated gravitational pull and high tidal pushes. It will happen again on August 19th adding to an already dangerous weakening of friction between the plates.
Total Solar Eclipse of 2009
If my theory is correct then a triple eclipse over tectonic plates is sure to produce 7+ quakes after the third Syzygy. We can also use it to predict factors that may affect a quake (outside of an eclipse) such as repeated events that produce larger than normal tides. Back to back lunar eclipses and perigee for example.
This does what current science thinks impossible. We can plan for a earthquake disaster years in advance. For example we may be expecting something similar for the total eclipse of 2016, but it does not have a triple Syzygy. It has a double. So I'd expect 4.7 to 5.5 quakes in the same places we had quakes this year shortly after March 9th 2016. Then slightly higher quakes 6+ shortly after the lunar eclipse March 23rd. We may get a few 7+ quakes with the perigee that should be shortly after April 8th 2016.
Total Solar Eclipse of 2016
That's the kind of thing we can do with this theory, predict the probability a 7+ quake years in advance. I'd pick Taiwan, Japan and the iwo Jima Volcanic Islands because we know they are susceptible to tidal force related quakes. I'd also pick Indonesia and perhaps Papa New Guinea and Perhaps Northern Australia because they are in the eclipse path. What we really need is the simulator to do a nice calculation of the probability.
The point is, with this theory we can predict when and where earthquakes will occur several years in advance. It explains nicely why we have the quakes and gives us an accurate forecast in location, magnitude and time. These are the 3 necessary factors for an accurate earthquake prediction. Nothing else comes close, current scientific thinking is that earthquake prediction is impossible.
08/12/2009 (5:48 am)
@Arun, thanks for the link. We did have a 6.6 yesterday in Japan and that is rare. Its pretty close to the spot I expect the bigger quake. The thing is, the 7+ quakes are gone for now. I expect a return of 7+ quakes between August 17th and August 24th. This adds power to my theory as I can explain why the 7+ quakes are gone for now.@Sven, all this data is very interesting. What I find fascinating is that these methods are what I call "reactive prediction" in other words they do not explain why we have the quakes and cannot predict quakes years in advance. These methods react to changes in the environment a few days before the quake. My theory allows us to predict quakes decades in advance. Its also explains why we have the quakes in the first place. The lunar tectonic weakening theory has nice logical elegance in my mind.
If no one else is predicting quakes during the August 17th - August 24th window, then this is a nice clear shot for my theory. Even Jim Berkland's theory ends at the third Syzygy. I don't think he takes into account a possible cumulative effect. That is what I noticed watching the quakes from July 7th through July 30th, smaller quakes became bigger quakes as the days passed.
The next perigee on August 19th will follow a similar path as teh eclipse on July 22nd. My theory suggests that the frictional forces between the tectonic plates have been weakened with the passing of 3 major lunar events, repeated gravitational pull and high tidal pushes. It will happen again on August 19th adding to an already dangerous weakening of friction between the plates.
Total Solar Eclipse of 2009
If my theory is correct then a triple eclipse over tectonic plates is sure to produce 7+ quakes after the third Syzygy. We can also use it to predict factors that may affect a quake (outside of an eclipse) such as repeated events that produce larger than normal tides. Back to back lunar eclipses and perigee for example.
This does what current science thinks impossible. We can plan for a earthquake disaster years in advance. For example we may be expecting something similar for the total eclipse of 2016, but it does not have a triple Syzygy. It has a double. So I'd expect 4.7 to 5.5 quakes in the same places we had quakes this year shortly after March 9th 2016. Then slightly higher quakes 6+ shortly after the lunar eclipse March 23rd. We may get a few 7+ quakes with the perigee that should be shortly after April 8th 2016.
Total Solar Eclipse of 2016
That's the kind of thing we can do with this theory, predict the probability a 7+ quake years in advance. I'd pick Taiwan, Japan and the iwo Jima Volcanic Islands because we know they are susceptible to tidal force related quakes. I'd also pick Indonesia and perhaps Papa New Guinea and Perhaps Northern Australia because they are in the eclipse path. What we really need is the simulator to do a nice calculation of the probability.
The point is, with this theory we can predict when and where earthquakes will occur several years in advance. It explains nicely why we have the quakes and gives us an accurate forecast in location, magnitude and time. These are the 3 necessary factors for an accurate earthquake prediction. Nothing else comes close, current scientific thinking is that earthquake prediction is impossible.
#149
We can save lives, people can change travel plans we can schedule down time and prepare for problems we expect to face in manufacturing plants. The list of reasons is endless. Take a look at the real effects of earthquakes my theory accurately predicted on July 28th in Japan. For one thing the Hamaoka Nuclear Plant shut down! Good move in my opinion, its should stay off until after August 25th.
Take a look at the effects of the August 10th earthquake, predicted with this theory on July 28th
A highway bridge lies in ruins in Ichinoseki city, Iwate Prefecture
www.javno.com/en-world/magnitude-60-earthquake-jolts-northern-japan_234335
Hello Japanese government, for less than the cost to rebuild this bridge, I'll build you a simulator to predict the next quake that will knock it down again. Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
Looks like Jessica Simpson was rattled by the 6.6 in Japan on August 11th. Now downgraded to a 6.1 (August 10th UTC) She should read my blog and leave, the big one is coming. www.popeater.com/2009/08/11/stars-get-caught-in-japan-earthquake/
Videos of the 6.6 earthquake here (predicted by my cumulative force graph posted on July 28th 2009)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-67jYYPscBM&feature=related
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV-kyYVhPAY
August 10th 6.4 Quake (predicted by my cumulative force graph posted on July 28th 2009)
Road Damage from the August 10th 6.1 Quake
Stories
www.smh.com.au/world/strong-quake-hits-central-japan-as-typhoon-nears-20090811-e...
gigaom.com/2009/08/11/japan-earthquake-disrupts-cornings-lcd-glass-production-bi...
www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2009/08/11/strong_earthquakes_shake_toky...
www.nydailynews.com/gossip/2009/08/11/2009-08-11_jessica_simpsons_tweets_about_6...
The 7.1 (predicted by my cumulative force graph posted on July 28th 2009) on August 9th in Japan was at sea. So it did not have as much of an impact. I expect a huge quake 7+ in the Tokai region of Japan August 17th through August 25th.
08/12/2009 (7:22 am)
Why is earthquake prediction important? Current scientific thinking is that earthquakes are unpredictable therefore all efforts should be made for preparedness. In other words they say we should spend 3 times as much for a house or building in an earthquake zone to make sure its ready. If we knew we would not have another earthquake in a region for 30 years, and that happens to be the life expectancy of the house or building. Then why bother with the extra money? Just move out a month before the quake. Build a new one after it falls down, you still saved 1/3rd the money after building two houses. And you saved 30 years worth of interest on your money.We can save lives, people can change travel plans we can schedule down time and prepare for problems we expect to face in manufacturing plants. The list of reasons is endless. Take a look at the real effects of earthquakes my theory accurately predicted on July 28th in Japan. For one thing the Hamaoka Nuclear Plant shut down! Good move in my opinion, its should stay off until after August 25th.
Take a look at the effects of the August 10th earthquake, predicted with this theory on July 28th
A highway bridge lies in ruins in Ichinoseki city, Iwate Prefecture
www.javno.com/en-world/magnitude-60-earthquake-jolts-northern-japan_234335
Hello Japanese government, for less than the cost to rebuild this bridge, I'll build you a simulator to predict the next quake that will knock it down again. Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
Looks like Jessica Simpson was rattled by the 6.6 in Japan on August 11th. Now downgraded to a 6.1 (August 10th UTC) She should read my blog and leave, the big one is coming. www.popeater.com/2009/08/11/stars-get-caught-in-japan-earthquake/
Quote:
Simpson, who's in Japan filming her new reality show 'The Price of Beauty,' posted on Twitter following the quake: "Thought I was hallucinating. I have never felt anything like this in my life. Laying in bed watching CNN."
Jessica's pal and one-time assistant CaCee Cobb said she "woke up thinking I was in a fish tank!"
Videos of the 6.6 earthquake here (predicted by my cumulative force graph posted on July 28th 2009)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-67jYYPscBM&feature=related
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV-kyYVhPAY
August 10th 6.4 Quake (predicted by my cumulative force graph posted on July 28th 2009)
Quote:
A strong earthquake rocked central Japan on Tuesday, injuring more than 100 people, triggering a landslide and shutting down a nuclear power plant and bullet trains. The magnitude 6.4 tremor shook buildings, threw objects from shelves and jolted people from their sleep in and around Tokyo. Duration: 00:55.
Road Damage from the August 10th 6.1 Quake
Quote:
Production at Corning’s LCD glass manufacturing facility in Shizuoka, Japan, has come to a halt following a 6.4 magnitude earthquake off the Japanese coast yesterday. Corning said in a statement that “glass-making operations at the facility are currently suspended and we believe they will remain so for some time.”
Stories
www.smh.com.au/world/strong-quake-hits-central-japan-as-typhoon-nears-20090811-e...
gigaom.com/2009/08/11/japan-earthquake-disrupts-cornings-lcd-glass-production-bi...
www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2009/08/11/strong_earthquakes_shake_toky...
www.nydailynews.com/gossip/2009/08/11/2009-08-11_jessica_simpsons_tweets_about_6...
The 7.1 (predicted by my cumulative force graph posted on July 28th 2009) on August 9th in Japan was at sea. So it did not have as much of an impact. I expect a huge quake 7+ in the Tokai region of Japan August 17th through August 25th.
#150
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcatmax/SEcatmax.html
earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/historical.php
However, it is really difficult to find a good match between both lists..
Here some previous major quakes in Japan
1896 06 15 - Sanriku, Japan - M 8.5
1923 09 01 - Kanto (Kanto), Japan
1927 03 07 - Tango, Japan - M 7.6
1933 03 02 - Sanriku, Japan - M 8.4
1943 09 10 - Tottori, Japan - M 7.4
And the closest long eclipse matches:
1883 Oct 30 23:50:54
1886 Aug 29 12:55:23
1901 May 18 05:33:48
1919 May 29 13:08:55
1937 Jun 08 20:41:02
1955 Dec 14 07:02:25
Long eclipse means that the moon is close to the earth I guess..
08/12/2009 (10:16 am)
I just checked the occurences of previous great quakes with historic solar eclipses:eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcatmax/SEcatmax.html
earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/historical.php
However, it is really difficult to find a good match between both lists..
Here some previous major quakes in Japan
1896 06 15 - Sanriku, Japan - M 8.5
1923 09 01 - Kanto (Kanto), Japan
1927 03 07 - Tango, Japan - M 7.6
1933 03 02 - Sanriku, Japan - M 8.4
1943 09 10 - Tottori, Japan - M 7.4
And the closest long eclipse matches:
1883 Oct 30 23:50:54
1886 Aug 29 12:55:23
1901 May 18 05:33:48
1919 May 29 13:08:55
1937 Jun 08 20:41:02
1955 Dec 14 07:02:25
Long eclipse means that the moon is close to the earth I guess..
#151
Your help is greatly appreciated! You are right It is not easy to find and match the data. It requires a good knowledge of geography and latitude longitude readings. Since there are no visible quake maps that date back year after year you have to do it all in your head. There are a few rules to matching the eclipse data to the quake data.
1. The solar eclipse has to be in the same region. It must cross the same tectonic plate where the earthquake occurs.
2. There does seem to be a delayed effect, up to 8 days after the eclipse. The moon is at a about 96 degree angle to the sun after 8 days.
3. If you have a lunar eclipse after the solar eclipse (you have a second Syzygy) 14 days later. So you need to look for lunar eclipses after the solar eclipse.
4. If you have a lunar eclipse before the eclipse you could see greater earthquake data for that eclipse.
5. Total Solar eclipses seem to have a bigger effect, you can focus on those to start with. That is the only eclipse where you have a follow up lunar perigee 29 days later.
6. Most important: If the eclipse does not pass directly over a tectonic plate or fault line its probably a dud. If you cant get a quake ever in that region, then the eclipse wont cause one. In other words its best to concentrate on the quake zones. Japan, China and the middle east (even Europe) are awesome places to look. I'd say just about any eclipse over the Eurasian Tectonic plate will cause a quake of some sort.
Rule number 3 and 5 needs explanation. The key days are not all 33 days after an eclipse. Its a range of 14-18 days after the eclipse with the next lunar eclipse and 29-33 days after the total solar eclipse for the next perigee. With rule numbers 2, 3, and 5 we can define all the windows.
The cumulative force theory gives us 3 windows for earthquakes.
Window 1. 8 days after the solar eclipse
Window 2. 14 to 17 Days after the eclipse (lunar eclipse and Syzygy)
Window 3. 29 to 33 Days after a total solar eclipse (lunar perigee)
This gives us a total of 17 days out of the year or 17/365 days for the probability of about 4% of correctly matching an earthquake with a total solar eclipse, if it were just pure chance.
Since the earth rotates rapidly I think the region is important for the Solar eclipse but less so for the lunar eclipse, it will pretty much cover the globe with its effects in 24 hours. To me the solar eclipse and lunar perigee during the day (29 days after the solar eclipse) are the most important. The lunar eclipse just keeps the ball moving so to speak, it keeps reducing the tectonic friction.
Significant earthquake data since 1976 is easily obtained here (just change the last 4 digits of the url for the year):
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2009.php
Solar Eclipse Data is here
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html
Lunar Eclipse data is here
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/lunar.html
If you take the time I'm sure you will dig up plenty of correlation between total solar eclipses and significant earthquakes. Sadly the USGS dropped 90% of the quakes for July in its last post. I recorded them here: www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/recentquakes0701-0730-2009.txt and here www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/recentquakes0723-0730-2009.txt
08/12/2009 (10:46 am)
@Sven,Your help is greatly appreciated! You are right It is not easy to find and match the data. It requires a good knowledge of geography and latitude longitude readings. Since there are no visible quake maps that date back year after year you have to do it all in your head. There are a few rules to matching the eclipse data to the quake data.
1. The solar eclipse has to be in the same region. It must cross the same tectonic plate where the earthquake occurs.
2. There does seem to be a delayed effect, up to 8 days after the eclipse. The moon is at a about 96 degree angle to the sun after 8 days.
3. If you have a lunar eclipse after the solar eclipse (you have a second Syzygy) 14 days later. So you need to look for lunar eclipses after the solar eclipse.
4. If you have a lunar eclipse before the eclipse you could see greater earthquake data for that eclipse.
5. Total Solar eclipses seem to have a bigger effect, you can focus on those to start with. That is the only eclipse where you have a follow up lunar perigee 29 days later.
6. Most important: If the eclipse does not pass directly over a tectonic plate or fault line its probably a dud. If you cant get a quake ever in that region, then the eclipse wont cause one. In other words its best to concentrate on the quake zones. Japan, China and the middle east (even Europe) are awesome places to look. I'd say just about any eclipse over the Eurasian Tectonic plate will cause a quake of some sort.
Rule number 3 and 5 needs explanation. The key days are not all 33 days after an eclipse. Its a range of 14-18 days after the eclipse with the next lunar eclipse and 29-33 days after the total solar eclipse for the next perigee. With rule numbers 2, 3, and 5 we can define all the windows.
The cumulative force theory gives us 3 windows for earthquakes.
Window 1. 8 days after the solar eclipse
Window 2. 14 to 17 Days after the eclipse (lunar eclipse and Syzygy)
Window 3. 29 to 33 Days after a total solar eclipse (lunar perigee)
This gives us a total of 17 days out of the year or 17/365 days for the probability of about 4% of correctly matching an earthquake with a total solar eclipse, if it were just pure chance.
Since the earth rotates rapidly I think the region is important for the Solar eclipse but less so for the lunar eclipse, it will pretty much cover the globe with its effects in 24 hours. To me the solar eclipse and lunar perigee during the day (29 days after the solar eclipse) are the most important. The lunar eclipse just keeps the ball moving so to speak, it keeps reducing the tectonic friction.
Significant earthquake data since 1976 is easily obtained here (just change the last 4 digits of the url for the year):
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2009.php
Solar Eclipse Data is here
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html
Lunar Eclipse data is here
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/lunar.html
If you take the time I'm sure you will dig up plenty of correlation between total solar eclipses and significant earthquakes. Sadly the USGS dropped 90% of the quakes for July in its last post. I recorded them here: www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/recentquakes0701-0730-2009.txt and here www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/recentquakes0723-0730-2009.txt
#152
Here are the ones I've predicted so far (updating data so its not lost):
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009jja2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009jnaf
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009jnak
These are the real results of my original prediction of the effects of the total solar eclipse by its self. They help validate my eclipse quake theory. These were originally predicted back in Jan 2009, but the window opened through July 28th was changed in May 2009. On my first attempt at earthquake prediction, I predicted these quakes several months in advance before the actual event.
The ones below are the big ones predicted on July 28th after I realized the magnitudes of the quakes increased over time. I came up with the new lunar tectonic weakening theory on July 28th and posted my cumulative force graph showing a peak on August 9th 2009. These quakes are the real results of my prediction.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kdb4
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kcaz
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090811052120391-110507.html
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kfcp
Not bad for a computer programmer's very first attempts at predicting earthquakes, eh? So far I'm 100% accurate on all my predictions. The odds are less than 4% that I would be correct on any of them. All that remains is the Tsunami, and we may get that also in the next two weeks.
Actually, I did get the Tsunami (30 Cm), so technically I'm 100% correct on all aspects.
I'm absolutely convinced there is something to the eclipse quake theory and the lunar tectonic weakening theory. Its as real as it could be in my opinion. I'm also sure we will have major quakes in the same places some time between August 17th through August 25th.
We only have 17 quakes a year greater than 7.0, and I nailed one of them. This quake here was predicted with my lunar tectonic weakening theory. Its the same magnitude as Jim Berkland's 1989 prediction.
Magnitude - Average Annually
Still doubt it? Take a look at any other month this year and you wont get these quakes. Its the only logical explanation. Its clear that I'm not causing the quakes, so therefore I must be predicting them. Sorry for the bad puns, but it does look like my theory holds water. Tidal water to be precise.
I'm also certain that the scientists who wrote this paper would agree with me from the Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
08/12/2009 (11:27 am)
Predictions are correct, and support the Lunar Tectonic Weakening TheoryHere are the ones I've predicted so far (updating data so its not lost):
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009jja2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009jnaf
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009jnak
These are the real results of my original prediction of the effects of the total solar eclipse by its self. They help validate my eclipse quake theory. These were originally predicted back in Jan 2009, but the window opened through July 28th was changed in May 2009. On my first attempt at earthquake prediction, I predicted these quakes several months in advance before the actual event.
UTC DATE-TIME LAT LON ID Mag Region --------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009/07/22 14:51:02 33.07N 134.26E us2009jja2 4.7 SHIKOKU, JAPAN 2009/07/26 03:24:39 20.050 145.851 us2009jnaf 4.6 Iwo Jima Islands 2009/07/26 06:10:58 23.430 121.50E us2009jnak 5.1 TAIWAN 2009/08/09 10:55:55 33.12N 138.02E us2009kcaz 7.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/10 20:07:07 34.77N 138.27E us2009kdb4 6.1 HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/13 22:48:51 32.81N 140.38E us2009kfcp 6.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
The ones below are the big ones predicted on July 28th after I realized the magnitudes of the quakes increased over time. I came up with the new lunar tectonic weakening theory on July 28th and posted my cumulative force graph showing a peak on August 9th 2009. These quakes are the real results of my prediction.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kdb4
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kcaz
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090811052120391-110507.html
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/cap/us2009kfcp
Not bad for a computer programmer's very first attempts at predicting earthquakes, eh? So far I'm 100% accurate on all my predictions. The odds are less than 4% that I would be correct on any of them. All that remains is the Tsunami, and we may get that also in the next two weeks.
Actually, I did get the Tsunami (30 Cm), so technically I'm 100% correct on all aspects.
Quote:
Near the epicenter of Japan’s quake, Yaizu experienced a reading of lower 6, the third highest-level on the Japanese scale of earthquake intensity, JMA said.
A tsunami wave with a height of 30 centimeters was recorded near Yaizu at 5:26 a.m., JMA said.
I'm absolutely convinced there is something to the eclipse quake theory and the lunar tectonic weakening theory. Its as real as it could be in my opinion. I'm also sure we will have major quakes in the same places some time between August 17th through August 25th.
We only have 17 quakes a year greater than 7.0, and I nailed one of them. This quake here was predicted with my lunar tectonic weakening theory. Its the same magnitude as Jim Berkland's 1989 prediction.
Magnitude - Average Annually
8 and higher - 1 7-7.9 - 17 6 - 6.9 - 134 5-5.9 - 1319 4-4.9 - 13,000 3-3.9 - 130,000 2-2.9 - 1,300,000Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Still doubt it? Take a look at any other month this year and you wont get these quakes. Its the only logical explanation. Its clear that I'm not causing the quakes, so therefore I must be predicting them. Sorry for the bad puns, but it does look like my theory holds water. Tidal water to be precise.
I'm also certain that the scientists who wrote this paper would agree with me from the Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
#153
Right, so a friend of mine asked how many significant quakes we had before the total solar eclipse in the circles I drew. I realized this is a good correlative question. See for yourself here neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_global.html Note the recent August quakes are not entered yet.
Here is the online query for all 6+ quakes before July 22nd 2009 in the format of a map.
Number of quakes in Taiwan, Japan and the Iwo Jima Islands
Magnitude 7+ Quakes
January 1st through July 22 2009, 0
January 22nd through August 12th, 1
Magnitude 6+ Quakes
January 1st through July 22 2009, 0
January 22nd through August 12th, 3
Once we have the rest of the August data entered I'll draw a graph for my three circles for magnitude 4,5,6,7 and 8 if we get one. I've drawn out a rough sketch already and it does demonstrate a spike in quakes at all levels since the start of the Syzgys on July 7th 2009. I'll color code each Syzygy so you can see the correlative uplift in the graphs.
08/12/2009 (5:31 pm)
Correlative evidenceRight, so a friend of mine asked how many significant quakes we had before the total solar eclipse in the circles I drew. I realized this is a good correlative question. See for yourself here neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_global.html Note the recent August quakes are not entered yet.
Here is the online query for all 6+ quakes before July 22nd 2009 in the format of a map.
Number of quakes in Taiwan, Japan and the Iwo Jima Islands
Magnitude 7+ Quakes
January 1st through July 22 2009, 0
January 22nd through August 12th, 1
Magnitude 6+ Quakes
January 1st through July 22 2009, 0
January 22nd through August 12th, 3
Once we have the rest of the August data entered I'll draw a graph for my three circles for magnitude 4,5,6,7 and 8 if we get one. I've drawn out a rough sketch already and it does demonstrate a spike in quakes at all levels since the start of the Syzgys on July 7th 2009. I'll color code each Syzygy so you can see the correlative uplift in the graphs.
#154
that same query with the year changed from 2009 to 2007 (chosen arbitrarily) yields about twice as many in 2007 than in 2009.
08/12/2009 (6:27 pm)
but, britton,that same query with the year changed from 2009 to 2007 (chosen arbitrarily) yields about twice as many in 2007 than in 2009.
#155
There has been another M6 today. I'd guess the two M6 quakes are aftershocks from the previous M7.1 in the ocean.
Oh and for the moon-earth relation, I think this website is also interesting. I also think the angle between the earth, the moon, the sun and the EQ fold is important.
www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html
08/12/2009 (7:59 pm)
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/140_35.phpThere has been another M6 today. I'd guess the two M6 quakes are aftershocks from the previous M7.1 in the ocean.
Oh and for the moon-earth relation, I think this website is also interesting. I also think the angle between the earth, the moon, the sun and the EQ fold is important.
www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html
#156
--------------------------------------------------------------------
March 2007 Eclipse and Earthquake
Eclipse March 19th 2007 - Earthquake March 25th 2007
March 25, 2007 6.9 ML Noto Peninsula Earthquake 能登半島地震 Noto Hantō Jishin Ishikawa Prefecture about 11 kilometres (6.8 mi) due west of the southern end of the town of Wajima 11 At 9:42 a.m., a magnitude 6.9 earthquake, struck the Hokuriku region of Japan, near the Noto Peninsula. The earthquake shook the city of Nanao and the town of Anamizu with a seismic intensity of 6+ on Japan's shindo scale. One death, in the city of Wajima, and at least 214 injuries have been reported. A tsunami advisory was immediately made for the Kaga coast and Noto coast, and a 10-20cm wave hit shore about 30 minutes later.
----------------------------
@Sven, yeah I got that one on my cell phone too. I'm counting that one, but not too excited about it. According to my theory, I expect the big quakes to drop off until August 17th. The moon is getting 3,000 kilometers closer each day. Its 8 days in to its 15 day decent from its apogee on August 04 2009. As seen in the graph several posts above, the cumulative force is high, but flat from August 12th - August 16th.
I've never seen the site you posted before, but yeah its interesting. A lot of people think angular momentum plays a role, so yes the angle of the moon is probably important too.
I'm surprised that so many people have posted so much data on the idea that earthquakes are related to the lunar cycles, and still the scientific community is so resistant to it. They should at least do the rest of us some credit and set up an experiment or at least a study to attempt disprove the theory, rather than just saying "that is impossible." Aren't you supposed to at least test the hypothesis in order to disprove it? I thought that was part of the scientific method.
The only ones I found who did test the theory with a historic sample was the Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China, and they found a significant correlation.
If you do the same study for geologically stable region like south Africa, you wont find much evidence. But if you pick a quake ridden zone like Taiwan or Japan, I'm sure you will find plenty of evidence. If you take the whole world for your study, then you are lumping in regions that don't have earthquakes with the ones that do, so naturally you destroy the correlative data between the lunar cycles and the earthquakes.
So an off the cuff response like "In the last 110 years or so, there have been about 85 really big earthquakes" all over the world... then you've already destroyed the sample, and invalidated your study. You've also lost site that "the really big ones" are statistical anomalies. You should probably focus on the big ones 6+ to 7+, the more common ones that destroy the most buildings and kill the most people over time. The big tsunami; however, may need a really big quake to get started.
Also I think scientists make the mistake that this is theory is supposed to be the only reason we get earthquakes so it should explain all of them. No, it does not. It explains the majority of them, not all of them. Sometimes the pressure build up is enough on its own that you have an earthquake with out any help from the moon. Sometimes you have a volcanic eruption that causes a tremor. Sometimes countries explode a nuclear bomb deep in the earth's crust for nuclear testing and set off an earthquake. The point is there is more than one cause for an earthquake.
We should focus on the lunar effect for two reasons. The first being the gravitational pull is probably one of the most determined (always at work) forces that can cause an earthquake. The second, and most compelling reason to study this, is that its the one thing we can accurately predict way ahead of time.
08/12/2009 (8:01 pm)
Orion, sure. We probably had lunar and solar eclipses early in 2007. In fact, thanks for pointing that out. My March 19 2007 eclipse with a March 25th earthquake in Japan is the dead ringer for that explanation.--------------------------------------------------------------------
March 2007 Eclipse and Earthquake
Eclipse March 19th 2007 - Earthquake March 25th 2007
March 25, 2007 6.9 ML Noto Peninsula Earthquake 能登半島地震 Noto Hantō Jishin Ishikawa Prefecture about 11 kilometres (6.8 mi) due west of the southern end of the town of Wajima 11 At 9:42 a.m., a magnitude 6.9 earthquake, struck the Hokuriku region of Japan, near the Noto Peninsula. The earthquake shook the city of Nanao and the town of Anamizu with a seismic intensity of 6+ on Japan's shindo scale. One death, in the city of Wajima, and at least 214 injuries have been reported. A tsunami advisory was immediately made for the Kaga coast and Noto coast, and a 10-20cm wave hit shore about 30 minutes later.
----------------------------
@Sven, yeah I got that one on my cell phone too. I'm counting that one, but not too excited about it. According to my theory, I expect the big quakes to drop off until August 17th. The moon is getting 3,000 kilometers closer each day. Its 8 days in to its 15 day decent from its apogee on August 04 2009. As seen in the graph several posts above, the cumulative force is high, but flat from August 12th - August 16th.
I've never seen the site you posted before, but yeah its interesting. A lot of people think angular momentum plays a role, so yes the angle of the moon is probably important too.
I'm surprised that so many people have posted so much data on the idea that earthquakes are related to the lunar cycles, and still the scientific community is so resistant to it. They should at least do the rest of us some credit and set up an experiment or at least a study to attempt disprove the theory, rather than just saying "that is impossible." Aren't you supposed to at least test the hypothesis in order to disprove it? I thought that was part of the scientific method.
The only ones I found who did test the theory with a historic sample was the Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China, and they found a significant correlation.
If you do the same study for geologically stable region like south Africa, you wont find much evidence. But if you pick a quake ridden zone like Taiwan or Japan, I'm sure you will find plenty of evidence. If you take the whole world for your study, then you are lumping in regions that don't have earthquakes with the ones that do, so naturally you destroy the correlative data between the lunar cycles and the earthquakes.
So an off the cuff response like "In the last 110 years or so, there have been about 85 really big earthquakes" all over the world... then you've already destroyed the sample, and invalidated your study. You've also lost site that "the really big ones" are statistical anomalies. You should probably focus on the big ones 6+ to 7+, the more common ones that destroy the most buildings and kill the most people over time. The big tsunami; however, may need a really big quake to get started.
Also I think scientists make the mistake that this is theory is supposed to be the only reason we get earthquakes so it should explain all of them. No, it does not. It explains the majority of them, not all of them. Sometimes the pressure build up is enough on its own that you have an earthquake with out any help from the moon. Sometimes you have a volcanic eruption that causes a tremor. Sometimes countries explode a nuclear bomb deep in the earth's crust for nuclear testing and set off an earthquake. The point is there is more than one cause for an earthquake.
We should focus on the lunar effect for two reasons. The first being the gravitational pull is probably one of the most determined (always at work) forces that can cause an earthquake. The second, and most compelling reason to study this, is that its the one thing we can accurately predict way ahead of time.
#158
08/13/2009 (12:06 am)
For about 20th August, I wonder why there should be another quake near Tokyo. Usually, if there is a quake like the M7.1, there are a few aftershocks and nothing further.
#159
As it stands we could take the numbers you posted and compare what years had eclipses between January and July, but again we are comparing apples to oranges. For example can a January 2001 eclipse in South America cause an earthquake in Japan in May 2001? I think not.
08/13/2009 (12:07 am)
Orion, now for the purpose of this study, can you count for each year how many are in the three circles I drew? Japan, Taiwan and Iwo Jima? Then we need to see if we had an eclipse that year in that region.As it stands we could take the numbers you posted and compare what years had eclipses between January and July, but again we are comparing apples to oranges. For example can a January 2001 eclipse in South America cause an earthquake in Japan in May 2001? I think not.
#160
So on July 22nd we get a 4.6 near Honshu Japan, Along comes the August 6th Syzygy and that same spot gets a 7.1 the second time on August 9th. Now it may slide even further the third time and maybe we get a 7.6 or an 8. That's my theory anyway.
08/13/2009 (12:11 am)
@Sven, the idea is its not an after shock. The first quake is smaller because the plate slid as much as the friction force would allow it to. The moon comes back again and pushes on this new weakened friction point. So it slides further the second and third, and fourth time. The bigger the slide, the bigger the quake.So on July 22nd we get a 4.6 near Honshu Japan, Along comes the August 6th Syzygy and that same spot gets a 7.1 the second time on August 9th. Now it may slide even further the third time and maybe we get a 7.6 or an 8. That's my theory anyway.
Praveen
I have been following your blog for a while. But after the july 30th window, I lost a little bit of interest. But these 2 big quakes have got me into it again.
Your Lunar apogee/perigee theory seems to interesting. Let see what happens in the next few days.