Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (10:12 pm) · 242 comments
So this is the last post on the Eclipse Earthquake simulator. I have no plans to create the simulator (but before I drop the idea all together) I thought I'd use a little Psuedo science to make my own earth quake prediction for the July 22 2009 Eclipse.
August 26 2009 Update. Results are in
Read here to see the final results. We had zero M6 or M7 quakes in these circles this year before July. We have two M6 and one M7 on the days of my prediction. This theory accurately predicted 14 earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M7.1 on the Richter scale in a 17 day window. This cannot be coincidence.
Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
The results show 100% accuracy on the original prediction with significant earthquakes in all 3 circles between July 22nd and July 28th. Follow up results with predictions after the lunar eclipse on August 6th indicate further accuracy Read here to find out why. We had 3 tsunamis from these quakes ranging from 30 cm to 60 cm (less than 2 feet)
This theory correctly predicted the M7.1 and M6.1 earthquakes in Japan on August 9th and 10th. Read here to see the final results.
Table of Contents
Page 1 - The Theory and Prediction
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Page 3 - The Geologist behind the Eclipse Quake Theory-- Jim Berkland (You Tube)
Page 7 - Correct Predictions of 7+ August 9th and 10th earthquakes
Page 8 - Updates to prediction - Why we will have more 7+ quakes before August 25th
Page 12 - December 31st 2009 Prediction
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
*** Note 1: Updated May 07 2009 With data from 3 previous Total Solar Eclipses and 3 Earthquakes all in the same region (and same day within 6 hours) from the past 20 years. Note 2: This is a theory and I have no background in earth science or seismology. In short, I have no valid qualification to back this prediction. Update June 24 2009: But, this theory is now backed a credible scientist who does. Hans Lehner's Earth Quake prediction***
Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
July 22nd through July 30th 2009 Earth Quake Prediction
I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the junction of 4 tectonic plates
Japans tectonic plates
*** Note: 07/07/2009 Update: Historical data has changed my prediction to be a few hours before the total eclipse, with a window of 8 days after the eclipse. Prediction is from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 read Page 2 - Supporting evidence to find out why ***
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be followed by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacific ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach Papua New Guinea. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. I assumed an hour delay for each event following the lunar eclipse, and then summed the values. I assumed that the events would last longer for the fluids, water and molten magma than for dry land. I then summed the values four all 4 plates where Japan sits.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full. Why is this the big one? A tsunami can occur with a level 7.0 magnitude or higher. The last two eclipse earthquakes in 2004 and 2007 have been 6.9. Japan has a violent 8.4 quake known as the "Tokai" quake that occurs on a cycle of every 150 years or so. The last one was in 1854. That means Japan has been ripe for the big one since 2004. This (July 22nd 2009) eclipse is the longest (over 6 minutes) in over a century and the moon is the closest it will be to earth in over a century. It has the greatest chance of causing a gravitational disturbance of any eclipse in the past 100 years. Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Just about every eclipse in the past 10 years in Japan has a significant earthquake associated with it. I prefer data within a few hours of the eclipse, but if I open the time window to a few days after, the correlation jumps to 85%. Only one eclipse in this region in 2003 did not have a corresponding quake during the past decade. For Japan, over the past decade or so, 6 out of 7 eclipses with corresponding earthquakes with in a few days (or hours) is a significant fact.
7 Solar Eclipses, 6 Earthquakes in 10 years
Read through Page 2 - Supporting evidence
The first thing to happen on July 22nd 2009 is greatly magnified tidal forces (solar and lunar tide combined during the eclipse) pushing down on the subducted Phillipine plate. The vast volume of sea water (30% greater than normal) is pushing downward with billions upon billions of tons of pressure a few hours before the eclipse. Shortly after, as the moons orbit encroaches on the sun, the centripetal force of the earths rotation is combined with the gravitational pull of both the sun and moon. The gravitational pull and centripetal force provide an upward lift on the Eurasian plate. We now have both a lift on the upper plate and a downward force on the subducted plate. The only thing preventing an earthquake is the friction between these plates. The gravitational and tidal forces work together during the longest and closest eclipse in 100 years help to alleviate the friction and let the plates slide. When the plates slide we get the big tokai quake that's been building for over 150 years. (This is my theory anyway...)
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
Data Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
We start with scientific data gathered from March 1988 where we have Earthquake with a few hours of a Total Solar Eclipse. This historical data matches nearly perfectly the exact location of my current Earthquake prediction. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in Japan, March 18 1988.
China Quakes
Its not just Japan that gets the quakes with a Total Solar Eclipse. China has a recent history too. There is a chance they will get a quake as well, but not as high a chance as Japan. The interesting thing to note is that there does seem to be a significant correlation between Total Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes in this region over the past decade. A magnitude 6+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in China, October 1995. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 1 hour before the total solar eclipse in China, August 2008.
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
** Read through page 2 to get the detailed earthquake data *** End update ***
August 26 2009 Update. Results are in
Read here to see the final results. We had zero M6 or M7 quakes in these circles this year before July. We have two M6 and one M7 on the days of my prediction. This theory accurately predicted 14 earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M7.1 on the Richter scale in a 17 day window. This cannot be coincidence.
Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
The results show 100% accuracy on the original prediction with significant earthquakes in all 3 circles between July 22nd and July 28th. Follow up results with predictions after the lunar eclipse on August 6th indicate further accuracy Read here to find out why. We had 3 tsunamis from these quakes ranging from 30 cm to 60 cm (less than 2 feet)
This theory correctly predicted the M7.1 and M6.1 earthquakes in Japan on August 9th and 10th. Read here to see the final results.
Table of Contents
Page 1 - The Theory and Prediction
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Page 3 - The Geologist behind the Eclipse Quake Theory-- Jim Berkland (You Tube)
Page 7 - Correct Predictions of 7+ August 9th and 10th earthquakes
Page 8 - Updates to prediction - Why we will have more 7+ quakes before August 25th
Page 12 - December 31st 2009 Prediction
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
*** Note 1: Updated May 07 2009 With data from 3 previous Total Solar Eclipses and 3 Earthquakes all in the same region (and same day within 6 hours) from the past 20 years. Note 2: This is a theory and I have no background in earth science or seismology. In short, I have no valid qualification to back this prediction. Update June 24 2009: But, this theory is now backed a credible scientist who does. Hans Lehner's Earth Quake prediction***
Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
July 22nd through July 30th 2009 Earth Quake Prediction
I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the junction of 4 tectonic plates
Japans tectonic plates
*** Note: 07/07/2009 Update: Historical data has changed my prediction to be a few hours before the total eclipse, with a window of 8 days after the eclipse. Prediction is from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 read Page 2 - Supporting evidence to find out why ***
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be followed by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacific ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach Papua New Guinea. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. I assumed an hour delay for each event following the lunar eclipse, and then summed the values. I assumed that the events would last longer for the fluids, water and molten magma than for dry land. I then summed the values four all 4 plates where Japan sits.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full. Why is this the big one? A tsunami can occur with a level 7.0 magnitude or higher. The last two eclipse earthquakes in 2004 and 2007 have been 6.9. Japan has a violent 8.4 quake known as the "Tokai" quake that occurs on a cycle of every 150 years or so. The last one was in 1854. That means Japan has been ripe for the big one since 2004. This (July 22nd 2009) eclipse is the longest (over 6 minutes) in over a century and the moon is the closest it will be to earth in over a century. It has the greatest chance of causing a gravitational disturbance of any eclipse in the past 100 years. Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Just about every eclipse in the past 10 years in Japan has a significant earthquake associated with it. I prefer data within a few hours of the eclipse, but if I open the time window to a few days after, the correlation jumps to 85%. Only one eclipse in this region in 2003 did not have a corresponding quake during the past decade. For Japan, over the past decade or so, 6 out of 7 eclipses with corresponding earthquakes with in a few days (or hours) is a significant fact.
7 Solar Eclipses, 6 Earthquakes in 10 years
Read through Page 2 - Supporting evidence
The first thing to happen on July 22nd 2009 is greatly magnified tidal forces (solar and lunar tide combined during the eclipse) pushing down on the subducted Phillipine plate. The vast volume of sea water (30% greater than normal) is pushing downward with billions upon billions of tons of pressure a few hours before the eclipse. Shortly after, as the moons orbit encroaches on the sun, the centripetal force of the earths rotation is combined with the gravitational pull of both the sun and moon. The gravitational pull and centripetal force provide an upward lift on the Eurasian plate. We now have both a lift on the upper plate and a downward force on the subducted plate. The only thing preventing an earthquake is the friction between these plates. The gravitational and tidal forces work together during the longest and closest eclipse in 100 years help to alleviate the friction and let the plates slide. When the plates slide we get the big tokai quake that's been building for over 150 years. (This is my theory anyway...)
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
Data Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
We start with scientific data gathered from March 1988 where we have Earthquake with a few hours of a Total Solar Eclipse. This historical data matches nearly perfectly the exact location of my current Earthquake prediction. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in Japan, March 18 1988.
China Quakes
Its not just Japan that gets the quakes with a Total Solar Eclipse. China has a recent history too. There is a chance they will get a quake as well, but not as high a chance as Japan. The interesting thing to note is that there does seem to be a significant correlation between Total Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes in this region over the past decade. A magnitude 6+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in China, October 1995. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 1 hour before the total solar eclipse in China, August 2008.
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
** Read through page 2 to get the detailed earthquake data *** End update ***
#122
If the Richter scale is being phased out, the United States would be the last to change. We are still not using the metric system. I would not be surprised if the differences are do to using a different scale.
But, we can't explain why the USGS does not report what should be considered a significant earthquake. Any ideas?
I'm not familiar with the scale or methods that the Bulgarian National Seismological Data Center is using. A 7.4 on the Richter scale would have a good chance of producing a tsunami, at least a small one.
View Stats
07/28/2009 (4:12 pm)
@Bill,If the Richter scale is being phased out, the United States would be the last to change. We are still not using the metric system. I would not be surprised if the differences are do to using a different scale.
But, we can't explain why the USGS does not report what should be considered a significant earthquake. Any ideas?
I'm not familiar with the scale or methods that the Bulgarian National Seismological Data Center is using. A 7.4 on the Richter scale would have a good chance of producing a tsunami, at least a small one.
#123
I know exactly why, but it is better discussed through email. I assume you have access to my email address from my account info. If not, I will post it here upon your reply.
07/28/2009 (4:29 pm)
Britton,I know exactly why, but it is better discussed through email. I assume you have access to my email address from my account info. If not, I will post it here upon your reply.
#124
What I'm thinking is this, the lunar eclipses and Jim Berkland's theory of Syzygy may be correct. A total solar eclipse is probably the strongest and a period like we have now July 7th through August 6th 2009 with three Syzygy's is significant. More significant than the total solar eclipse by itself.
I still think the big one is due July 29th - July 30th, and that is based on the 2004 and 2007 Japan eclipses.
My new theory is more along the lines of a "lunar tectonic weakening." The tectonic plates act kind of like a fracture in a bone or piece of wood. The lunar and solar pull act like two forces hitting that fracture. They hit it with both a pull and a push, day after day. Normally this is a few days before or after the Syzygy and the lunar perigee.
Now its a constant pressure that peaks on July 7th, July 22nd and August 6th. The effect is not a single event but a combined one. I think we will have increased significant quakes even after August 6th.
Assuming a force scale with 10 being the highest (total solar eclipse) and 7 for a lunar eclipse at perigee, the blue line shows the gravitational pull scale from July 7th through August 6th.
Since its not a linear cumulative force (we have to drop down back to zero eventually) The red line is a sum of the current days value plus the previous days total divided by a fall off ratio and subtracted by a single force unit. Again this model is purely theoretical. It shows how in theory the real fireworks can begin during the third Syzygy. The cumulative force is not a direct effect of the solar and lunar pull. The cumulative force is a measure of the weakening of the friction between the tectonic plates.
This is a totally different theory from the one I used to predict the quakes during July 22nd through July 30th. Its a much wider theory covering the whole region for over 30 days. Its also so broad that we would really need a great deal of very large quakes to prove its merit beyond pure chance. It also more along the lines of pseudo science and quackery.
None the less, no matter how you look at it, the whole region is currently inundated with significant level 5+ earthquakes. I'm offering a possible explanation. I think these will get bigger and then fall around August 1st-4th and then get even bigger through the middle of August. The whole thing will begin to wind down after August 14th. I'd bet it will be very quiet in the region after that.
Whats this mean? We will have 5+ and a few 6+ and maybe on 7+ in the regions that are currently getting 4+ and 5+ quakes now all through August 14th.
I still think we will get a big one (6+) in Japan before August 1st. To answer your question about Burma, the 5+ quakes you see may eventually hit a 6+. I don't think it will go much beyond that. The big ones 7+ Have been in the latitude between Taiwan and New Zealand and will probably stay there. I never thought Australia and New Zealand would be hit so hard. But they are, and it will get bigger with more quakes there too.
07/28/2009 (4:32 pm)
@U Win, I'm thinking my theory is not complete. You are correct we are having significant quakes along all the tectonic plates the eclipse passed over. We are not having as many quakes in the Americas where the eclipse was not visible. Statistically we have fewer quakes in the Americas anyway.What I'm thinking is this, the lunar eclipses and Jim Berkland's theory of Syzygy may be correct. A total solar eclipse is probably the strongest and a period like we have now July 7th through August 6th 2009 with three Syzygy's is significant. More significant than the total solar eclipse by itself.
I still think the big one is due July 29th - July 30th, and that is based on the 2004 and 2007 Japan eclipses.
My new theory is more along the lines of a "lunar tectonic weakening." The tectonic plates act kind of like a fracture in a bone or piece of wood. The lunar and solar pull act like two forces hitting that fracture. They hit it with both a pull and a push, day after day. Normally this is a few days before or after the Syzygy and the lunar perigee.
Now its a constant pressure that peaks on July 7th, July 22nd and August 6th. The effect is not a single event but a combined one. I think we will have increased significant quakes even after August 6th.
Assuming a force scale with 10 being the highest (total solar eclipse) and 7 for a lunar eclipse at perigee, the blue line shows the gravitational pull scale from July 7th through August 6th.
Since its not a linear cumulative force (we have to drop down back to zero eventually) The red line is a sum of the current days value plus the previous days total divided by a fall off ratio and subtracted by a single force unit. Again this model is purely theoretical. It shows how in theory the real fireworks can begin during the third Syzygy. The cumulative force is not a direct effect of the solar and lunar pull. The cumulative force is a measure of the weakening of the friction between the tectonic plates.
This is a totally different theory from the one I used to predict the quakes during July 22nd through July 30th. Its a much wider theory covering the whole region for over 30 days. Its also so broad that we would really need a great deal of very large quakes to prove its merit beyond pure chance. It also more along the lines of pseudo science and quackery.
None the less, no matter how you look at it, the whole region is currently inundated with significant level 5+ earthquakes. I'm offering a possible explanation. I think these will get bigger and then fall around August 1st-4th and then get even bigger through the middle of August. The whole thing will begin to wind down after August 14th. I'd bet it will be very quiet in the region after that.
Whats this mean? We will have 5+ and a few 6+ and maybe on 7+ in the regions that are currently getting 4+ and 5+ quakes now all through August 14th.
I still think we will get a big one (6+) in Japan before August 1st. To answer your question about Burma, the 5+ quakes you see may eventually hit a 6+. I don't think it will go much beyond that. The big ones 7+ Have been in the latitude between Taiwan and New Zealand and will probably stay there. I never thought Australia and New Zealand would be hit so hard. But they are, and it will get bigger with more quakes there too.
#125
That kind of goes against a big quake in the next two days in Japan. Such is life. Its my first shot at earthquake prediction (with out any background) so, I've been lucky to be any where near right on anything.
10 more quakes today, on this map. My cumulative force line shows it flat for today, my guess is its actually dropping from yesterday.
Wait! No we do have a 5.9 today. I think we are staying flat. We may start to drop on the 31st. So the next two days will be interesting for Japan. Again this quake is closer to Australia.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jqaw.php
07/28/2009 (8:36 pm)
The earthquakes are dropping in magnitude, we are getting quakes in the 4.9 to low 5.3 range today. That kind of goes against a big quake in the next two days in Japan. Such is life. Its my first shot at earthquake prediction (with out any background) so, I've been lucky to be any where near right on anything.
10 more quakes today, on this map. My cumulative force line shows it flat for today, my guess is its actually dropping from yesterday.
Wait! No we do have a 5.9 today. I think we are staying flat. We may start to drop on the 31st. So the next two days will be interesting for Japan. Again this quake is closer to Australia.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jqaw.php
#126
07/29/2009 (4:14 am)
Quote:To answer your question about Burma, the 5+ quakes you see may eventually hit a 6+. I don't think it will go much beyond that. The big ones 7+ Have been in the latitude between Taiwan and New Zealand and will probably stay there. I never thought Australia and New Zealand would be hit so hard. But they are, and it will get bigger with more quakes there too.Thanks again for your answer and it makes me clear that Myanmar(Burma) is in different latitude from Taiwan and New Zeland where large earthquakes occurred few days ago.
#127
07/29/2009 (5:46 am)
totally unrelated, but i was in the mountains of western China for this eclipse, and while the sky was unfortunately cloudy, it was still a more dramatic event than i had anticipated! well worth the trip.
#128
07/29/2009 (2:33 pm)
Orion, very cool. Do you have any photos? What did the eclipse look like with the clouds?
#129
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jrbk.php
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time
* Wednesday, July 29, 2009 at 14:52:08 UTC
* Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 12:52:08 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 22.573°N, 143.284°E
Depth 140.1 km (87.1 miles) set by location program
Region VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
I hate to say it but using the eclipse quake theory anyone could have predicted 4.5+ quakes the week after the eclipse just about anywhere along the tectonic plates, and they would have been correct. I picked three out of at least 70 4.5+ quakes following the Indo Austraillian, Phillipine, and Eurasian Plates.
I really think there is something to the theory. But, why not any big ones? I was pretty sure we would have one by now in Japan, Taiwan or the islands around Iwo Jima.
Another 5.5 in Taiwan Definitely not a coincidence.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/pt09210002.php
Magnitude 5.5 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
* Wednesday, July 29, 2009 at 16:53:04 UTC
* Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 12:53:04 AM at epicenter
Location 21.950°N, 120.540°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region TAIWAN REGION
We are reaching high tides right now (01:30 CST July 30th) in Taiwan, the peak will be in one hour at (02:30). We will see the peak again tomorrow. www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/2987.html
2009-07-30 2:03 AM CST 0.77 meters High Tide
2009-07-30 5:29 AM CST Sunrise
2009-07-30 10:25 AM CST 0.34 meters Low Tide
2009-07-30 4:37 PM CST 0.45 meters High Tide
2009-07-30 6:40 PM CST Sunset
2009-07-30 7:18 PM CST 0.44 meters Low Tide
2009-07-31 2:57 AM CST 0.79 meters High Tide
2009-07-31 5:29 AM CST Sunrise
2009-07-31 11:56 AM CST 0.28 meters Low Tide
2009-07-31 6:40 PM CST Sunset
2009-08-01 3:58 AM CST 0.80 meters High Tide
2009-08-01 5:30 AM CST Sunrise
Look like the tides are increasing as we approach the next Syzygy on August 6th, 2009.
07/29/2009 (3:25 pm)
Just got a 5.2 in my third circle!earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jrbk.php
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time
* Wednesday, July 29, 2009 at 14:52:08 UTC
* Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 12:52:08 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 22.573°N, 143.284°E
Depth 140.1 km (87.1 miles) set by location program
Region VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
I hate to say it but using the eclipse quake theory anyone could have predicted 4.5+ quakes the week after the eclipse just about anywhere along the tectonic plates, and they would have been correct. I picked three out of at least 70 4.5+ quakes following the Indo Austraillian, Phillipine, and Eurasian Plates.
I really think there is something to the theory. But, why not any big ones? I was pretty sure we would have one by now in Japan, Taiwan or the islands around Iwo Jima.
Another 5.5 in Taiwan Definitely not a coincidence.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/pt09210002.php
Magnitude 5.5 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
* Wednesday, July 29, 2009 at 16:53:04 UTC
* Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 12:53:04 AM at epicenter
Location 21.950°N, 120.540°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region TAIWAN REGION
We are reaching high tides right now (01:30 CST July 30th) in Taiwan, the peak will be in one hour at (02:30). We will see the peak again tomorrow. www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/2987.html
2009-07-30 2:03 AM CST 0.77 meters High Tide
2009-07-30 5:29 AM CST Sunrise
2009-07-30 10:25 AM CST 0.34 meters Low Tide
2009-07-30 4:37 PM CST 0.45 meters High Tide
2009-07-30 6:40 PM CST Sunset
2009-07-30 7:18 PM CST 0.44 meters Low Tide
2009-07-31 2:57 AM CST 0.79 meters High Tide
2009-07-31 5:29 AM CST Sunrise
2009-07-31 11:56 AM CST 0.28 meters Low Tide
2009-07-31 6:40 PM CST Sunset
2009-08-01 3:58 AM CST 0.80 meters High Tide
2009-08-01 5:30 AM CST Sunrise
Look like the tides are increasing as we approach the next Syzygy on August 6th, 2009.
#130
I meant to say longitude, instead of latitude. The range for the 6.0+ has been between 121.506°E and 166.577°E along the tectonic plates for the past two weeks. Myanmar (Burma) is between 92°E and 99°E. The quakes you posted seem to be the closest to you, and so far there are no 6.0 + quakes anywhere near you.
Taiwan (23.430°N, 121.506°E) July 13th had a (6.3) a week before the eclipse.
neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_jabu.html
A week ago we had a (6.0) in Papua New Guinea (6.478°S, 154.930°E)
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmae.php
July 15th we had a big quake (7.6) in New Zealand (45.750°S, 166.577°E)
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2009/us2009jcap/
07/29/2009 (4:09 pm)
@U Win,I meant to say longitude, instead of latitude. The range for the 6.0+ has been between 121.506°E and 166.577°E along the tectonic plates for the past two weeks. Myanmar (Burma) is between 92°E and 99°E. The quakes you posted seem to be the closest to you, and so far there are no 6.0 + quakes anywhere near you.
Taiwan (23.430°N, 121.506°E) July 13th had a (6.3) a week before the eclipse.
neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_jabu.html
A week ago we had a (6.0) in Papua New Guinea (6.478°S, 154.930°E)
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmae.php
July 15th we had a big quake (7.6) in New Zealand (45.750°S, 166.577°E)
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2009/us2009jcap/
#131
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V6e/index.htm
2009/07/30 12:47Icon 4.2 095
24.27N 121.72E, i.e. 34.4 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/30 02:28 4.0 094
24.26N 121.76E, i.e. 34.9 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/30 00:53 5.9 093
21.92N 120.40E, i.e. 37.1 km WSW of Hengchun, Pingtung
2009/07/29 22:08 4.1 092
24.26N 121.76E, i.e. 35.0 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/29 21:09 5.1 091
24.26N 121.75E, i.e. 34.9 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/29 18:16 4.5 090
24.25N 121.75E, i.e. 33.4 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/29 06:42 4.0 089
24.28N 121.73E, i.e. 35.7 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/28 21:33 4.2 088
24.25N 121.75E, i.e. 33.7 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/28 18:56 4.4 087
24.27N 121.73E, i.e. 34.8 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/26 14:10 5.5 086
23.48N 121.27E, i.e. 65.0 km SW of Hualien City
2009/07/26 09:00 5.4 085
23.68N 120.99E, i.e. 40.0 km SE of Nantou City
2009/07/22 22:26 4.2 084
24.41N 121.95E, i.e. 44.0 km SSE of Yilan City
2009/07/21 14:58 4.8 083
24.10N 121.65E, i.e. 14.0 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/21 06:50 3.9 082
24.09N 121.69E, i.e. 15.5 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/20 16:46 4.3 081
23.91N 120.16E, i.e. 44.4 km WNW of Douliou City
2009/07/19 17:27 4.4 080
23.90N 120.17E, i.e. 42.9 km WNW of Douliou City
2009/07/17 19:01 4.2 079
23.05N 120.25E, i.e. 8.2 km NNE of Tainan City
2009/07/17 02:42 5.0 078
24.05N 122.24E, i.e. 64.4 km E of Hualien City
2009/07/16 18:48 5.2 077
24.09N 122.15E, i.e. 55.8 km ENE of Hualien City
2009/07/15 18:53 4.1 076
23.86N 121.36E, i.e. 29.0 km WSW of Hualien City
2009/07/15 18:37 5.0 075
23.84N 121.50E, i.e. 19.6 km SW of Hualien City
2009/07/14 11:24 4.0 074
24.25N 121.72E, i.e. 32.1 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/14 04:28 5.1 073
24.18N 122.14E, i.e. 58.7 km ENE of Hualien City
2009/07/14 02:05 6.3 072
24.07N 122.17E, i.e. 57.1 km E of Hualien City
2009/07/14 02:02 4.0 071
24.26N 121.69E, i.e. 33.0 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/07 18:20 4.1 070
24.19N 121.69E, i.e. 25.1 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/04 14:24 3.9 069
24.22N 121.72E, i.e. 29.6 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/02 18:41 4.3 068
24.22N 121.71E, i.e. 29.1 km NNE of Hualien City
07/30/2009 (6:28 am)
Hmm, I thought I would add my two cents. I live in taiwan and we frequently have 6+ earthquakes. Typically 2 a month or more. I don't understand how making such a hypothesis, extending the date range out a week and collection any data that slightly looks promising has any credibility to support your theory. Furthermore I am interested in why you are posting this here? Are you attempting to bring a prediction model inside or Torque? If you are the math would be interesting.http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V6e/index.htm
2009/07/30 12:47Icon 4.2 095
24.27N 121.72E, i.e. 34.4 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/30 02:28 4.0 094
24.26N 121.76E, i.e. 34.9 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/30 00:53 5.9 093
21.92N 120.40E, i.e. 37.1 km WSW of Hengchun, Pingtung
2009/07/29 22:08 4.1 092
24.26N 121.76E, i.e. 35.0 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/29 21:09 5.1 091
24.26N 121.75E, i.e. 34.9 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/29 18:16 4.5 090
24.25N 121.75E, i.e. 33.4 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/29 06:42 4.0 089
24.28N 121.73E, i.e. 35.7 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/28 21:33 4.2 088
24.25N 121.75E, i.e. 33.7 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/28 18:56 4.4 087
24.27N 121.73E, i.e. 34.8 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/26 14:10 5.5 086
23.48N 121.27E, i.e. 65.0 km SW of Hualien City
2009/07/26 09:00 5.4 085
23.68N 120.99E, i.e. 40.0 km SE of Nantou City
2009/07/22 22:26 4.2 084
24.41N 121.95E, i.e. 44.0 km SSE of Yilan City
2009/07/21 14:58 4.8 083
24.10N 121.65E, i.e. 14.0 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/21 06:50 3.9 082
24.09N 121.69E, i.e. 15.5 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/20 16:46 4.3 081
23.91N 120.16E, i.e. 44.4 km WNW of Douliou City
2009/07/19 17:27 4.4 080
23.90N 120.17E, i.e. 42.9 km WNW of Douliou City
2009/07/17 19:01 4.2 079
23.05N 120.25E, i.e. 8.2 km NNE of Tainan City
2009/07/17 02:42 5.0 078
24.05N 122.24E, i.e. 64.4 km E of Hualien City
2009/07/16 18:48 5.2 077
24.09N 122.15E, i.e. 55.8 km ENE of Hualien City
2009/07/15 18:53 4.1 076
23.86N 121.36E, i.e. 29.0 km WSW of Hualien City
2009/07/15 18:37 5.0 075
23.84N 121.50E, i.e. 19.6 km SW of Hualien City
2009/07/14 11:24 4.0 074
24.25N 121.72E, i.e. 32.1 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/14 04:28 5.1 073
24.18N 122.14E, i.e. 58.7 km ENE of Hualien City
2009/07/14 02:05 6.3 072
24.07N 122.17E, i.e. 57.1 km E of Hualien City
2009/07/14 02:02 4.0 071
24.26N 121.69E, i.e. 33.0 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/07 18:20 4.1 070
24.19N 121.69E, i.e. 25.1 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/04 14:24 3.9 069
24.22N 121.72E, i.e. 29.6 km NNE of Hualien City
2009/07/02 18:41 4.3 068
24.22N 121.71E, i.e. 29.1 km NNE of Hualien City
#132
Take look at this study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China (Taiwan) www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Basically I'm doing the same thing. The tides are much higher during a total solar eclipse. The effects last over several days. If anything significant happens today (July 30th) then I'll proceed with a game simulator, if not then bleh who cares right?
The eclipse quake theory has limits defined by what we get today. The tipple triple Syzygy is a different matter. I wont build the simulator unless we get a significant 6.9 or 7.0+ quake in one of those three spots by August 14th.
Wait a second!! You have no significant earthquakes in Taiwan this year until 3 days before the first Syzygy
Taiwan doesn't event have anything greater than a 4.5 this year until July. Not one single significant quake in Taiwan. Take a look at the worlds significant quakes. Justin, Taiwan does not have a 6+ earthquakes twice a month. Taiwan hasn't had one all year! No significant quakes until right before the first lunar eclipse on July 7th, and then a 6.3 six days later.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2009.php
This is the only 6+ earthquake Taiwan has had all year
neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_jabu.html
Magnitude 6.3
# Date-Time Monday, July 13, 2009 at 18:05:03 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
# Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 02:05:03 AM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 24.03N 122.17E
Depth 32 kilometers
Region TAIWAN REGION
I think the sheer number of quakes in Taiwan since the start of the triple eclipse speaks for its self. It does lend evidence to the eclipse quake theory. The other major quakes for indonesia were in January about the time of the lunar perigee science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/08jan_bigmoon2009.htm
07/30/2009 (2:22 pm)
@Justin,Take look at this study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China (Taiwan) www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Basically I'm doing the same thing. The tides are much higher during a total solar eclipse. The effects last over several days. If anything significant happens today (July 30th) then I'll proceed with a game simulator, if not then bleh who cares right?
The eclipse quake theory has limits defined by what we get today. The tipple triple Syzygy is a different matter. I wont build the simulator unless we get a significant 6.9 or 7.0+ quake in one of those three spots by August 14th.
Wait a second!! You have no significant earthquakes in Taiwan this year until 3 days before the first Syzygy
Taiwan doesn't event have anything greater than a 4.5 this year until July. Not one single significant quake in Taiwan. Take a look at the worlds significant quakes. Justin, Taiwan does not have a 6+ earthquakes twice a month. Taiwan hasn't had one all year! No significant quakes until right before the first lunar eclipse on July 7th, and then a 6.3 six days later.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2009.php
This is the only 6+ earthquake Taiwan has had all year
neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_jabu.html
Magnitude 6.3
# Date-Time Monday, July 13, 2009 at 18:05:03 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
# Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 02:05:03 AM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 24.03N 122.17E
Depth 32 kilometers
Region TAIWAN REGION
I think the sheer number of quakes in Taiwan since the start of the triple eclipse speaks for its self. It does lend evidence to the eclipse quake theory. The other major quakes for indonesia were in January about the time of the lunar perigee science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/08jan_bigmoon2009.htm
#133
I am disappointed. So disappointed.
I really wanted to see my world is on fire...
07/30/2009 (3:13 pm)
Your prediction did not realize. July 30 is over.I am disappointed. So disappointed.
I really wanted to see my world is on fire...
#134
07/30/2009 (3:37 pm)
@Kun Lan, chin up, Its only 15:33 UT you still have 9 hours to go, keep your fingers crossed. That is, I hope you are really wishing nothing happens.
#135
www.astropro.com/features/tables/cen21ce/mo-ap-2009.html
Astrology doesn't hold much scientific evidence in my mind. But the pull of the moon on the tides is a scientific fact. Perhaps we just need to analyze the last two weeks of quake data to verify there is something to this. Much like the Taiwan study we will probably find a correlation between quakes, tides and lunar perigee.
07/31/2009 (12:23 am)
Wow! It looks like you cant throw a stone with out hitting my theory (Jim Berkland's Theory) in one form or another. I noticed the January quakes coincided with the January Perigee. So I googled for a lunar perigee 2009 chart and I find this.www.astropro.com/features/tables/cen21ce/mo-ap-2009.html
Quote:
But consider the calamitous January 25, 1999 Colombian earthquake, which struck at 6:19 PM UT on that date – within 30 hours of the January 26 lunar perigee. Coincidence? Perhaps one of many. Such as, for example, the 6.4 Richter that rocked the Loyalty Islands region on February 22; the 6.8 that struck Andreanof Island in the Aleutians on March 20; the 5.6 that hit Hawaii on April 17 (the same day Richter 5.0 quakes struck southern Xinjiang China and the central Mediterranean Sea); the 7.0 temblor that shook up the New Britain region of Papua New Guinea May 14, followed by a 5.1 in the same area on June 13; the 6.6 quake that hit Honduras on July 11 (followed 13 hours later by a 5.8 quake in Pakistan); the 5.0 quake that messed with Mindanao August 8, reprised at 5.3 in the very same place during the very next lunar perigee period (September 1); the Richter 5+ quakes that struck Taiwan, southern Sumatra and Halmahera (both in Indonesia) September 27, followed the next day by a 6.1-magnitude temblor in the Komandorsky Islands region (one of nine Richter 5+ quakes recorded within 30 hours of the September 28 perigee); and the quintet of Richter 5+ quakes logged within 30 hours of the October 26 perigee (including a 5.6 at North Island, New Zealand) - and these comprise only a partial seismicity catalog for a single year.
You might want to consider the dates listed above for the year 2009, and watch the seismic and meteorological developments in the news of the day. I'm guessing that within plus or minus 30 hours of lunar perigee, you'll see a greater than usual number of significant seismic (Richter 5 or greater quakes, volcanic eruptions) and meteorological events (strong storms). Strike-slip faults in particular, on the other hand, often become active around the time of lunar apogee, particularly if the Moon is at or near maximum declination at the same time. You decide.
Astrology doesn't hold much scientific evidence in my mind. But the pull of the moon on the tides is a scientific fact. Perhaps we just need to analyze the last two weeks of quake data to verify there is something to this. Much like the Taiwan study we will probably find a correlation between quakes, tides and lunar perigee.
+--------------+-------------+-----+----------+--------+ | DATE | GMT | TYP | MOON |DIS (km)| +--------------+-------------+-----+----------+--------+ | JAN 10, 2009 | 10:53:00 AM | PER | 10 CA 33 | 357500 | | JAN 23, 2009 | 00:12:00 AM | APO | 26 SA 59 | 406115 | | FEB 07, 2009 | 08:09:00 PM | PER | 24 CA 41 | 361486 | | FEB 19, 2009 | 05:01:00 PM | APO | 01 CP 46 | 405131 | | MAR 07, 2009 | 03:08:00 PM | PER | 01 LE 02 | 367019 | | MAR 19, 2009 | 01:17:00 PM | APO | 07 CP 51 | 404301 | | APR 02, 2009 | 02:32:00 AM | PER | 05 CA 54 | 370013 | | APR 16, 2009 | 09:17:00 AM | APO | 18 CP 40 | 404231 | | APR 28, 2009 | 06:28:00 AM | PER | 20 GE 14 | 366041 | | MAY 14, 2009 | 02:58:00 AM | APO | 18 CP 40 | 404914 | | MAY 26, 2009 | 03:45:00 AM | PER | 28 GE 00 | 361154 | | JUN 10, 2009 | 04:05:00 PM | APO | 21 CP 45 | 405785 | | JUN 23, 2009 | 10:40:00 AM | PER | 11 CA 01 | 358017 | | JUL 07, 2009 | 09:40:00 PM | APO | 21 CP 27 | 406232*| | JUL 21, 2009 | 08:17:00 PM | PER | 25 CA 27 | 357464*| | AUG 04, 2009 | 00:43:00 AM | APO | 19 CP 57 | 406026 | | AUG 19, 2009 | 04:54:00 AM | PER | 09 LE 20 | 359641 | | AUG 31, 2009 | 11:05:00 AM | APO | 21 CP 49 | 405267 | | SEP 16, 2009 | 07:57:00 AM | PER | 20 LE 14 | 364053 | | SEP 28, 2009 | 03:34:00 AM | APO | 26 CP 17 | 404431 | | OCT 13, 2009 | 12:29:00 PM | PER | 18 LE 34 | 369067 | | OCT 25, 2009 | 11:19:00 PM | APO | 02 AQ 03 | 404166 | | NOV 07, 2009 | 07:31:00 AM | PER | 14 CA 06 | 368899 | | NOV 22, 2009 | 08:08:00 PM | APO | 08 AQ 19 | 404734 | | DEC 04, 2009 | 02:13:00 PM | PER | 13 CA 35 | 363478 | | DEC 20, 2009 | 02:55:00 PM | APO | 13 AQ 53 | 405730 | +--------------+-------------+-----+----------+--------+ NOTES: APO = LUNAR APOGEE PER = LUNAR PERIGEE DIS = DISTANCE (in kilometers)
#136
Not bad, but no big quake. What does this mean? There is a limit to the eclipse quake theory and it alone can not explain the giant 7+ or higher quakes by its self.
So, there is more to this than we currently know or can calculate. But I believe the data shows 4.6 to 5+ magnitude earthquakes are predictable with this method alone. I'll post the final results in a few days.
07/31/2009 (5:58 pm)
So the results of my prediction are in. We have several significant quakes outside the realms of "pure chance" ranging from 4.6 to 5.5, in all 3 of my circles during my prediction window (1 week out of 52).Not bad, but no big quake. What does this mean? There is a limit to the eclipse quake theory and it alone can not explain the giant 7+ or higher quakes by its self.
So, there is more to this than we currently know or can calculate. But I believe the data shows 4.6 to 5+ magnitude earthquakes are predictable with this method alone. I'll post the final results in a few days.
#137
We had the 3rd Syzygy on August 6th, 3 days later we have the 7.1 near where I predicted a big one for the eclipse. I was wrong about the magnitude of a total solar eclipse. The total solar eclipse seems to produce quakes less than magnitude 7 by its self.
Magnitude 7.1
Date-Time
* Sunday, August 09, 2009 at 10:55:56 UTC
* Sunday, August 09, 2009 at 07:55:56 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 33.144°N, 138.040°E
Depth 303.1 km (188.3 miles)
Region IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
This 7+ is the effect of a triple eclipse (as they call it), two lunar eclipses on either side of a solar eclipse. It is different, we have a combined effect of three events weakening the friction between the tectonic plates. According to the lunar tectonic weakening model I posted on 7/28 we will see the effects of this through 2009/08/12. We now have the 7+. The 7 plus is due to the combined effects of 3 Syzygys.
Unfortunately the triple Syzygy is not the last event. The lunar tectonic weakening model suggests the final coup de grace will occur two to four days after the lunar perigee on 2009/08/19.
With the new model I'd say August 22nd-23rd 2009 are the two potential D-Days for the really big one. The one no one can not notice. The one that could not be a coincidence. Its the last pass of larger than normal tides after the triple Syzygy. Anything that did not pop with the first three pases will be given one last chance after August 19th. The distance of the moon will be 359,641 kilometers.
Just to be clear, the three circles I drew back in January 2009 is where I expect the big ones to be. I still think we could get the tokai quake. After this August I don't expect any big quakes any where in this region for the rest of the year.
According to my lunar tectonic weakening theory I predict the days of danger August 9th - August 12th 2009, and August 19th through August 23rd 2009. Right here in Japan, Taiwan and the Iwo Jima volcanic islands. Play time is over. Now we will see the big ones. More than likely we will get the Tsunami if we do get the big ones.
After that (according to my theory) we are done for the year. All the stress will have been relieved in this region for the next several months. I can be rather blunt, no one is reading this post now. I'm making these prediction to help gather funding for the simulator. If we get the big 8.5 + Tokai quake (or several 7+ quakes) I'll have made my point.
08/09/2009 (12:22 pm)
My original theory was based off of the effects of a total solar eclipse. Its direct limitation seems to be greater than 4.5 magnitude but less than 7.0 in this region. After watching the effects of the triple Syzygy, I'm refining my mathematical model for lunar tectonic weakening posted on 07/28.We had the 3rd Syzygy on August 6th, 3 days later we have the 7.1 near where I predicted a big one for the eclipse. I was wrong about the magnitude of a total solar eclipse. The total solar eclipse seems to produce quakes less than magnitude 7 by its self.
Magnitude 7.1
Date-Time
* Sunday, August 09, 2009 at 10:55:56 UTC
* Sunday, August 09, 2009 at 07:55:56 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 33.144°N, 138.040°E
Depth 303.1 km (188.3 miles)
Region IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
This 7+ is the effect of a triple eclipse (as they call it), two lunar eclipses on either side of a solar eclipse. It is different, we have a combined effect of three events weakening the friction between the tectonic plates. According to the lunar tectonic weakening model I posted on 7/28 we will see the effects of this through 2009/08/12. We now have the 7+. The 7 plus is due to the combined effects of 3 Syzygys.
Unfortunately the triple Syzygy is not the last event. The lunar tectonic weakening model suggests the final coup de grace will occur two to four days after the lunar perigee on 2009/08/19.
With the new model I'd say August 22nd-23rd 2009 are the two potential D-Days for the really big one. The one no one can not notice. The one that could not be a coincidence. Its the last pass of larger than normal tides after the triple Syzygy. Anything that did not pop with the first three pases will be given one last chance after August 19th. The distance of the moon will be 359,641 kilometers.
Just to be clear, the three circles I drew back in January 2009 is where I expect the big ones to be. I still think we could get the tokai quake. After this August I don't expect any big quakes any where in this region for the rest of the year.
According to my lunar tectonic weakening theory I predict the days of danger August 9th - August 12th 2009, and August 19th through August 23rd 2009. Right here in Japan, Taiwan and the Iwo Jima volcanic islands. Play time is over. Now we will see the big ones. More than likely we will get the Tsunami if we do get the big ones.
After that (according to my theory) we are done for the year. All the stress will have been relieved in this region for the next several months. I can be rather blunt, no one is reading this post now. I'm making these prediction to help gather funding for the simulator. If we get the big 8.5 + Tokai quake (or several 7+ quakes) I'll have made my point.
#138
Taiwan and Iwo Jima are also due. Worse Japan will get another bigger earthquake by August 23rd. The reasoning is right here. We have had the third Syzygy and it is a compounded effect. Take a look at the tidal variations during Syzygy and with a lunar perigee to see what the gravitational effects are. Now imagine 4 events strung together over a 6 week period of time. (This is as fast as it can possibly happen according to the laws of physics)
July 7th, July 22nd, and August 6th all three Syzygy events with in 14 days of each other. We do see a tremendous increase in activity and magnitude after each event. What do you think will happen when we add the final lunar perigee on August 19th? Its duck soup guys, this is easy.
The last perigee was on July 21st and coincided (the next day) with the total solar eclipse. Now its returning after the lunar eclipse of August 6th. Within 13 days of the third Syzygy (line up of the earth Sun and Moon) we have perigee.
From apogee on August 4th to Perigee on August 19th, the moon will travel (406026 - 359641 = 46385) 46,385 kilometers closer to earth. That is about 3,092 kilometers a day. All this right after 3 significant tidal events. I can see the tectonic plates being beaten repeatedly day after day. Something has got to give.
I predict the greatest days of danger August 9th - August 12th 2009, and August 19th through August 23rd 2009 We will see more 7+ magnitude quakes in Japan, Taiwan and the volcanic islands of Iwo Jima. Take a look at the quake map above!
This is not normal. This is bad. This is real. The total solar eclipse laid the ground work for the events that follow. The fault lines and junctions of the tectonic plates are loosening. The friction coefficient is being reduced. The tectonic plates are sliding.
Coulomb friction, named after Charles-Augustin de Coulomb, is a model used to calculate the force of dry friction. It is governed by the equation:
* Ff, is the force exerted by friction (in the case of equality, the maximum possible magnitude of this force).
* u, is the coefficient of friction, which is an empirical property of the contacting materials,
* Fn, is the normal force exerted between the surfaces.
In our case the coefficient is a measure of the contacting materials, and the amount of pressure between the contact points (Fn). During these gravitational events the normal force (Fn) between the plates is directly reduced. The normal force is impacted by the weight of the tides, shifting the subducted normal force downward. The lifting and pulling during these events has an indirect cumulative effect of slightly moving the contact points letting the subducted plate slip lower. The overall effect is a prolonged weakening of the friction coefficient (u) between the plates, because it has new contact points. The normal force is also indirectly impacted in a cumulative way, the whole plate over hundreds of thousands of square miles is pitched slightly differently, the angle of force between the contact points of the plates has been changed slightly.
When the friction between the tectonic plates can no longer hold them in place, they slide and we get earthquakes. The size of the quake is not only determined by the amount of pressure between the plates, but the strength of the friction force (Ff) still present during the quake to stop further sliding. In simple English, when the friction is reduced, the plates slide freely we get bigger quakes.
The effect is global, meaning the likely hood of quakes go up all over the world. But my theory is that the biggest area of effect (the greatest loosening) occurs along the direct path of the total solar eclipse. That is where we will see the biggest impact.
08/10/2009 (6:06 am)
Oh come on now. No comments? On July 28th I correctly predicted the 7.1 earthquake today in Japan. Taiwan and Iwo Jima are also due. Worse Japan will get another bigger earthquake by August 23rd. The reasoning is right here. We have had the third Syzygy and it is a compounded effect. Take a look at the tidal variations during Syzygy and with a lunar perigee to see what the gravitational effects are. Now imagine 4 events strung together over a 6 week period of time. (This is as fast as it can possibly happen according to the laws of physics)
July 7th, July 22nd, and August 6th all three Syzygy events with in 14 days of each other. We do see a tremendous increase in activity and magnitude after each event. What do you think will happen when we add the final lunar perigee on August 19th? Its duck soup guys, this is easy.
The last perigee was on July 21st and coincided (the next day) with the total solar eclipse. Now its returning after the lunar eclipse of August 6th. Within 13 days of the third Syzygy (line up of the earth Sun and Moon) we have perigee.
From apogee on August 4th to Perigee on August 19th, the moon will travel (406026 - 359641 = 46385) 46,385 kilometers closer to earth. That is about 3,092 kilometers a day. All this right after 3 significant tidal events. I can see the tectonic plates being beaten repeatedly day after day. Something has got to give.
I predict the greatest days of danger August 9th - August 12th 2009, and August 19th through August 23rd 2009 We will see more 7+ magnitude quakes in Japan, Taiwan and the volcanic islands of Iwo Jima. Take a look at the quake map above!
This is not normal. This is bad. This is real. The total solar eclipse laid the ground work for the events that follow. The fault lines and junctions of the tectonic plates are loosening. The friction coefficient is being reduced. The tectonic plates are sliding.
Coulomb friction, named after Charles-Augustin de Coulomb, is a model used to calculate the force of dry friction. It is governed by the equation:
* Ff, is the force exerted by friction (in the case of equality, the maximum possible magnitude of this force).
* u, is the coefficient of friction, which is an empirical property of the contacting materials,
* Fn, is the normal force exerted between the surfaces.
In our case the coefficient is a measure of the contacting materials, and the amount of pressure between the contact points (Fn). During these gravitational events the normal force (Fn) between the plates is directly reduced. The normal force is impacted by the weight of the tides, shifting the subducted normal force downward. The lifting and pulling during these events has an indirect cumulative effect of slightly moving the contact points letting the subducted plate slip lower. The overall effect is a prolonged weakening of the friction coefficient (u) between the plates, because it has new contact points. The normal force is also indirectly impacted in a cumulative way, the whole plate over hundreds of thousands of square miles is pitched slightly differently, the angle of force between the contact points of the plates has been changed slightly.
When the friction between the tectonic plates can no longer hold them in place, they slide and we get earthquakes. The size of the quake is not only determined by the amount of pressure between the plates, but the strength of the friction force (Ff) still present during the quake to stop further sliding. In simple English, when the friction is reduced, the plates slide freely we get bigger quakes.
The effect is global, meaning the likely hood of quakes go up all over the world. But my theory is that the biggest area of effect (the greatest loosening) occurs along the direct path of the total solar eclipse. That is where we will see the biggest impact.
#139
My "lunar tectonic weakening" theory is holding up to the scientific test, much better than the "eclipse quake" theory. I am correct in all three categories, the magnitude, date and location.
Taiwan, Japan and the Iwo Jima islands will be rocked with 7+ quakes over the next few days. From now through August 23rd we will have massive quakes in the region. The 4th lunar pass with the next perigee on August 19th is still following the eclipse path. I'm not focusing on any other region, but everywhere we had quakes (along the eclipse path), we will now have the potential for larger quakes.
Today we had 7.6 Magnitude quake near Burma, and yes another 6+ in Japan. Mark my words, I'm pretty confident we will have a tsunami where I predicted it would be in the pacific ocean. This is real, and with this magnitude of quake my "lunar tectonic weakening" theory cannot be ignored.
Magnitude 7.6
Date-Time
* Monday, August 10, 2009 at 19:55:39 UTC
* Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 01:55:39 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 14.013°N, 92.923°E
Depth 33.1 km (20.6 miles)
Region ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
Magnitude 6.4
Date-Time
* Monday, August 10, 2009 at 20:07:07 UTC
* Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 05:07:07 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 34.727°N, 138.278°E
Depth 26.8 km (16.7 miles)
Region NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
This magnitude and these locations are so rare that it can not be pure chance. We must conclude, there is real evidence to support this theory. It accurately explains the phenomenon we see.
I watch the hits and I'm getting about 60 a day. So this will not cause wide spread panic. If you are one of the 60 people reading this, now is a good time to leave Japan and Taiwan if you are traveling. If you are in Japan or Taiwan and can not leave, now is the time to stock pile provisions of food and water. For the surrounding regions, stay away from the beaches.
I'll say it again, I expect the great 8+ magnitude tokai quake in Japan to occur between now and August 23rd. I also expect a 7+ in Taiwan next, before the one in Japan. We are seeing the same eastward march of the quakes we saw the week after the total solar eclipse.
I ran the basic equation I'm using to calculate the combined weakening of the friction between the plates. It was accurate for these quakes, so I'm not altering it for this post. Here it shows the combined effect is greatest after the perigee on august 19th.
I said August 23rd, its actually through August 26th and its really big. It peaks on August 22nd and remains steady through the 26th. I'll be the first to admit, the model is a bit off. The fall off ratio needs to be a bit higher. If I get funding I'll refine it, but for now it seems fairly accurate.
What can you do? Well I need some help building this. Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
08/10/2009 (9:34 pm)
I almost did not make my post last night. It was 1:00 AM and I was tired. I've rested now and I see two major earthquakes this afternoon. The moon was straight up over these places, and so I know the tides were high.My "lunar tectonic weakening" theory is holding up to the scientific test, much better than the "eclipse quake" theory. I am correct in all three categories, the magnitude, date and location.
Taiwan, Japan and the Iwo Jima islands will be rocked with 7+ quakes over the next few days. From now through August 23rd we will have massive quakes in the region. The 4th lunar pass with the next perigee on August 19th is still following the eclipse path. I'm not focusing on any other region, but everywhere we had quakes (along the eclipse path), we will now have the potential for larger quakes.
Today we had 7.6 Magnitude quake near Burma, and yes another 6+ in Japan. Mark my words, I'm pretty confident we will have a tsunami where I predicted it would be in the pacific ocean. This is real, and with this magnitude of quake my "lunar tectonic weakening" theory cannot be ignored.
Magnitude 7.6
Date-Time
* Monday, August 10, 2009 at 19:55:39 UTC
* Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 01:55:39 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 14.013°N, 92.923°E
Depth 33.1 km (20.6 miles)
Region ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
Magnitude 6.4
Date-Time
* Monday, August 10, 2009 at 20:07:07 UTC
* Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 05:07:07 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 34.727°N, 138.278°E
Depth 26.8 km (16.7 miles)
Region NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
This magnitude and these locations are so rare that it can not be pure chance. We must conclude, there is real evidence to support this theory. It accurately explains the phenomenon we see.
I watch the hits and I'm getting about 60 a day. So this will not cause wide spread panic. If you are one of the 60 people reading this, now is a good time to leave Japan and Taiwan if you are traveling. If you are in Japan or Taiwan and can not leave, now is the time to stock pile provisions of food and water. For the surrounding regions, stay away from the beaches.
I'll say it again, I expect the great 8+ magnitude tokai quake in Japan to occur between now and August 23rd. I also expect a 7+ in Taiwan next, before the one in Japan. We are seeing the same eastward march of the quakes we saw the week after the total solar eclipse.
I ran the basic equation I'm using to calculate the combined weakening of the friction between the plates. It was accurate for these quakes, so I'm not altering it for this post. Here it shows the combined effect is greatest after the perigee on august 19th.
I said August 23rd, its actually through August 26th and its really big. It peaks on August 22nd and remains steady through the 26th. I'll be the first to admit, the model is a bit off. The fall off ratio needs to be a bit higher. If I get funding I'll refine it, but for now it seems fairly accurate.
What can you do? Well I need some help building this. Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
#140
Magnitude 4.3
Date-Time
* Monday, August 03, 2009 at 22:18:15 UTC
* Tuesday, August 04, 2009 at 06:18:15 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 31.181°N, 103.767°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
I'd expect a 7+ near here soon. Then Taiwan and finally Japan. If it does not happen in the next two days we have the perigee on August 19th and the days that follow.
08/10/2009 (9:44 pm)
I don't like to go over the bounds of my original prediction but, the very next big quake will most like be near the one we had last week.Magnitude 4.3
Date-Time
* Monday, August 03, 2009 at 22:18:15 UTC
* Tuesday, August 04, 2009 at 06:18:15 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 31.181°N, 103.767°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
I'd expect a 7+ near here soon. Then Taiwan and finally Japan. If it does not happen in the next two days we have the perigee on August 19th and the days that follow.
Bill Cavdek
It occurred to me that the discrepancies between reporting websites might be due to different magnitude scales being used. Apparently the Richter scale is being phased out? You would know much more about this than me.
As just one example, the USGS reports a quake in Southern Sumatra as a 5.7, while REV reports the same quake as a 6.2. Because of the exponential nature of these scales, I know you would agree that this is a very significant difference.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jncb.php
rev.seis.sc.edu/earthquakes/2009/07/26/23/10/27?eq_dbid=1793537
And again, we have an example of a quake that the Bulgarian National Seismological Data Center is reporting that the USGS is not. This one is a 7.4 in the South Indian Ocean at 2009-07-28 08:45:39.
ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
This will be my last post like this, as I think I've proved my point that there are significant inconsistencies in the earthquake data being reported amongst the various sites. The question becomes, "which one is correct?" and "how does one choose?" I'm nobody and "don't know nothing from nothing" as the expression goes, so I bow out on answering those questions. If I am anything, I am a very careful observer who pays great attention to detail.
Good luck to you, Britton, in proving your theory! I mean that with all sincerity.