Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (10:12 pm) · 242 comments
So this is the last post on the Eclipse Earthquake simulator. I have no plans to create the simulator (but before I drop the idea all together) I thought I'd use a little Psuedo science to make my own earth quake prediction for the July 22 2009 Eclipse.
August 26 2009 Update. Results are in
Read here to see the final results. We had zero M6 or M7 quakes in these circles this year before July. We have two M6 and one M7 on the days of my prediction. This theory accurately predicted 14 earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M7.1 on the Richter scale in a 17 day window. This cannot be coincidence.
Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
The results show 100% accuracy on the original prediction with significant earthquakes in all 3 circles between July 22nd and July 28th. Follow up results with predictions after the lunar eclipse on August 6th indicate further accuracy Read here to find out why. We had 3 tsunamis from these quakes ranging from 30 cm to 60 cm (less than 2 feet)
This theory correctly predicted the M7.1 and M6.1 earthquakes in Japan on August 9th and 10th. Read here to see the final results.
Table of Contents
Page 1 - The Theory and Prediction
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Page 3 - The Geologist behind the Eclipse Quake Theory-- Jim Berkland (You Tube)
Page 7 - Correct Predictions of 7+ August 9th and 10th earthquakes
Page 8 - Updates to prediction - Why we will have more 7+ quakes before August 25th
Page 12 - December 31st 2009 Prediction
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
*** Note 1: Updated May 07 2009 With data from 3 previous Total Solar Eclipses and 3 Earthquakes all in the same region (and same day within 6 hours) from the past 20 years. Note 2: This is a theory and I have no background in earth science or seismology. In short, I have no valid qualification to back this prediction. Update June 24 2009: But, this theory is now backed a credible scientist who does. Hans Lehner's Earth Quake prediction***
Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
July 22nd through July 30th 2009 Earth Quake Prediction
I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the junction of 4 tectonic plates
Japans tectonic plates
*** Note: 07/07/2009 Update: Historical data has changed my prediction to be a few hours before the total eclipse, with a window of 8 days after the eclipse. Prediction is from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 read Page 2 - Supporting evidence to find out why ***
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be followed by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacific ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach Papua New Guinea. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. I assumed an hour delay for each event following the lunar eclipse, and then summed the values. I assumed that the events would last longer for the fluids, water and molten magma than for dry land. I then summed the values four all 4 plates where Japan sits.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full. Why is this the big one? A tsunami can occur with a level 7.0 magnitude or higher. The last two eclipse earthquakes in 2004 and 2007 have been 6.9. Japan has a violent 8.4 quake known as the "Tokai" quake that occurs on a cycle of every 150 years or so. The last one was in 1854. That means Japan has been ripe for the big one since 2004. This (July 22nd 2009) eclipse is the longest (over 6 minutes) in over a century and the moon is the closest it will be to earth in over a century. It has the greatest chance of causing a gravitational disturbance of any eclipse in the past 100 years. Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Just about every eclipse in the past 10 years in Japan has a significant earthquake associated with it. I prefer data within a few hours of the eclipse, but if I open the time window to a few days after, the correlation jumps to 85%. Only one eclipse in this region in 2003 did not have a corresponding quake during the past decade. For Japan, over the past decade or so, 6 out of 7 eclipses with corresponding earthquakes with in a few days (or hours) is a significant fact.
7 Solar Eclipses, 6 Earthquakes in 10 years
Read through Page 2 - Supporting evidence
The first thing to happen on July 22nd 2009 is greatly magnified tidal forces (solar and lunar tide combined during the eclipse) pushing down on the subducted Phillipine plate. The vast volume of sea water (30% greater than normal) is pushing downward with billions upon billions of tons of pressure a few hours before the eclipse. Shortly after, as the moons orbit encroaches on the sun, the centripetal force of the earths rotation is combined with the gravitational pull of both the sun and moon. The gravitational pull and centripetal force provide an upward lift on the Eurasian plate. We now have both a lift on the upper plate and a downward force on the subducted plate. The only thing preventing an earthquake is the friction between these plates. The gravitational and tidal forces work together during the longest and closest eclipse in 100 years help to alleviate the friction and let the plates slide. When the plates slide we get the big tokai quake that's been building for over 150 years. (This is my theory anyway...)
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
Data Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
We start with scientific data gathered from March 1988 where we have Earthquake with a few hours of a Total Solar Eclipse. This historical data matches nearly perfectly the exact location of my current Earthquake prediction. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in Japan, March 18 1988.
China Quakes
Its not just Japan that gets the quakes with a Total Solar Eclipse. China has a recent history too. There is a chance they will get a quake as well, but not as high a chance as Japan. The interesting thing to note is that there does seem to be a significant correlation between Total Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes in this region over the past decade. A magnitude 6+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in China, October 1995. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 1 hour before the total solar eclipse in China, August 2008.
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
** Read through page 2 to get the detailed earthquake data *** End update ***
August 26 2009 Update. Results are in
Read here to see the final results. We had zero M6 or M7 quakes in these circles this year before July. We have two M6 and one M7 on the days of my prediction. This theory accurately predicted 14 earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M7.1 on the Richter scale in a 17 day window. This cannot be coincidence.
Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
The results show 100% accuracy on the original prediction with significant earthquakes in all 3 circles between July 22nd and July 28th. Follow up results with predictions after the lunar eclipse on August 6th indicate further accuracy Read here to find out why. We had 3 tsunamis from these quakes ranging from 30 cm to 60 cm (less than 2 feet)
This theory correctly predicted the M7.1 and M6.1 earthquakes in Japan on August 9th and 10th. Read here to see the final results.
Table of Contents
Page 1 - The Theory and Prediction
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Page 3 - The Geologist behind the Eclipse Quake Theory-- Jim Berkland (You Tube)
Page 7 - Correct Predictions of 7+ August 9th and 10th earthquakes
Page 8 - Updates to prediction - Why we will have more 7+ quakes before August 25th
Page 12 - December 31st 2009 Prediction
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
*** Note 1: Updated May 07 2009 With data from 3 previous Total Solar Eclipses and 3 Earthquakes all in the same region (and same day within 6 hours) from the past 20 years. Note 2: This is a theory and I have no background in earth science or seismology. In short, I have no valid qualification to back this prediction. Update June 24 2009: But, this theory is now backed a credible scientist who does. Hans Lehner's Earth Quake prediction***
Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
July 22nd through July 30th 2009 Earth Quake Prediction
I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the junction of 4 tectonic plates
Japans tectonic plates
*** Note: 07/07/2009 Update: Historical data has changed my prediction to be a few hours before the total eclipse, with a window of 8 days after the eclipse. Prediction is from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 read Page 2 - Supporting evidence to find out why ***
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be followed by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacific ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach Papua New Guinea. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. I assumed an hour delay for each event following the lunar eclipse, and then summed the values. I assumed that the events would last longer for the fluids, water and molten magma than for dry land. I then summed the values four all 4 plates where Japan sits.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full. Why is this the big one? A tsunami can occur with a level 7.0 magnitude or higher. The last two eclipse earthquakes in 2004 and 2007 have been 6.9. Japan has a violent 8.4 quake known as the "Tokai" quake that occurs on a cycle of every 150 years or so. The last one was in 1854. That means Japan has been ripe for the big one since 2004. This (July 22nd 2009) eclipse is the longest (over 6 minutes) in over a century and the moon is the closest it will be to earth in over a century. It has the greatest chance of causing a gravitational disturbance of any eclipse in the past 100 years. Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Just about every eclipse in the past 10 years in Japan has a significant earthquake associated with it. I prefer data within a few hours of the eclipse, but if I open the time window to a few days after, the correlation jumps to 85%. Only one eclipse in this region in 2003 did not have a corresponding quake during the past decade. For Japan, over the past decade or so, 6 out of 7 eclipses with corresponding earthquakes with in a few days (or hours) is a significant fact.
7 Solar Eclipses, 6 Earthquakes in 10 years
Read through Page 2 - Supporting evidence
The first thing to happen on July 22nd 2009 is greatly magnified tidal forces (solar and lunar tide combined during the eclipse) pushing down on the subducted Phillipine plate. The vast volume of sea water (30% greater than normal) is pushing downward with billions upon billions of tons of pressure a few hours before the eclipse. Shortly after, as the moons orbit encroaches on the sun, the centripetal force of the earths rotation is combined with the gravitational pull of both the sun and moon. The gravitational pull and centripetal force provide an upward lift on the Eurasian plate. We now have both a lift on the upper plate and a downward force on the subducted plate. The only thing preventing an earthquake is the friction between these plates. The gravitational and tidal forces work together during the longest and closest eclipse in 100 years help to alleviate the friction and let the plates slide. When the plates slide we get the big tokai quake that's been building for over 150 years. (This is my theory anyway...)
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
Data Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
We start with scientific data gathered from March 1988 where we have Earthquake with a few hours of a Total Solar Eclipse. This historical data matches nearly perfectly the exact location of my current Earthquake prediction. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in Japan, March 18 1988.
China Quakes
Its not just Japan that gets the quakes with a Total Solar Eclipse. China has a recent history too. There is a chance they will get a quake as well, but not as high a chance as Japan. The interesting thing to note is that there does seem to be a significant correlation between Total Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes in this region over the past decade. A magnitude 6+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in China, October 1995. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 1 hour before the total solar eclipse in China, August 2008.
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
** Read through page 2 to get the detailed earthquake data *** End update ***
#102
Wow! That's some good stuff. You can make a link with the following url tags.
www.timesnow.tv/Mumbai-high-tide-No-cause-for-panic/videoshow/4322979.cms
I have not found an exact listing of all tsunami's. But tsunami's are not caused by the tides. They are caused by earthquakes. Again, I think India and China are safe from the big 6+ earthquakes. Its Japan that I am worried about.
Since the page wraped I'll do a recap.
I think the tides are higher than normal, because the moon is still close to perigee. What is interesting is we had a quake yesterday west of the latest one. Its like a delayed effect after the eclipse. The big quakes are moving eastward each day. Its almost as if each day it the earthquake gets bigger as it moves toward Japan. Its following the path of the smaller quakes the days before, and the path of the total solar eclipse a couple of days ago.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
This "march of quakes" is new, but it makes sense to me as the moon is moving 12 degrees eastward each day. The quakes are following the moon. The moon is moving 12 degrees eastward of the sun's position each day. We have quakes moving eastward (near the same time 03:00) each day too. I think this will continue through China and into Japan over the next few days.
07/24/2009 (3:40 pm)
@Rakesh,Wow! That's some good stuff. You can make a link with the following url tags.
[url]http://www.timesnow.tv/Mumbai-high-tide-No-cause-for-panic/videoshow/4322979.cms[/url]
www.timesnow.tv/Mumbai-high-tide-No-cause-for-panic/videoshow/4322979.cms
I have not found an exact listing of all tsunami's. But tsunami's are not caused by the tides. They are caused by earthquakes. Again, I think India and China are safe from the big 6+ earthquakes. Its Japan that I am worried about.
Since the page wraped I'll do a recap.
I think the tides are higher than normal, because the moon is still close to perigee. What is interesting is we had a quake yesterday west of the latest one. Its like a delayed effect after the eclipse. The big quakes are moving eastward each day. Its almost as if each day it the earthquake gets bigger as it moves toward Japan. Its following the path of the smaller quakes the days before, and the path of the total solar eclipse a couple of days ago.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
This "march of quakes" is new, but it makes sense to me as the moon is moving 12 degrees eastward each day. The quakes are following the moon. The moon is moving 12 degrees eastward of the sun's position each day. We have quakes moving eastward (near the same time 03:00) each day too. I think this will continue through China and into Japan over the next few days.
#103
ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
Thanks so much, Jason!!
I just discovered nine major earthquakes from July 19 to July 24 that are NOT reported on the USGS maps. They are:
Jul 19 - 7.3 South Indian Ocean
Jul 20 - 6.7 near Johannesburg, South Africa
Jul 22 - 6.6 Gulf of Oman
Jul 22 - 6.4 Gulf of Oman
Jul 22 - 6.7 Owen Fracture Zone Region (SE of Oman quakes)
Jul 24 - 7.1 near Bhutan
Jul 24 - 6.8 near Nepal
Jul 24 - 7.0 near Nepal
Jul 24 - 6.0 Mallnitz, Austria
Without doing further research, I believe all but three of these earthquakes fall within the territory where the solar eclipse of July 21/22 was visible.
07/24/2009 (5:05 pm)
Well just in case the USGS does not update on time, here're 2 other sites you can get the data about latest earthquakes and it seems there're some big ones for 24th july.ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
Thanks so much, Jason!!
I just discovered nine major earthquakes from July 19 to July 24 that are NOT reported on the USGS maps. They are:
Jul 19 - 7.3 South Indian Ocean
Jul 20 - 6.7 near Johannesburg, South Africa
Jul 22 - 6.6 Gulf of Oman
Jul 22 - 6.4 Gulf of Oman
Jul 22 - 6.7 Owen Fracture Zone Region (SE of Oman quakes)
Jul 24 - 7.1 near Bhutan
Jul 24 - 6.8 near Nepal
Jul 24 - 7.0 near Nepal
Jul 24 - 6.0 Mallnitz, Austria
Without doing further research, I believe all but three of these earthquakes fall within the territory where the solar eclipse of July 21/22 was visible.
#104
Your above inputs are not valid..All above mentioned were high magnitude, which could have been caused major damages to the earth property.
Eighter those would have been created a Tsunami (or)caused a damages to the property, if those really happend.
USGS is only one reputed site, which can given true updates about the earthquakes..
They are the leader of world for Geological survey.
Regds
rakesh
07/24/2009 (5:23 pm)
Bill,Your above inputs are not valid..All above mentioned were high magnitude, which could have been caused major damages to the earth property.
Eighter those would have been created a Tsunami (or)caused a damages to the property, if those really happend.
USGS is only one reputed site, which can given true updates about the earthquakes..
They are the leader of world for Geological survey.
Regds
rakesh
#105
07/24/2009 (5:43 pm)
Believe what you wish, Rakesh. I took the information directly from the Bulgarian National Seismological Data Center It is a common fact that the USGS does not report all earthquakes and even lowers their magnitudes. Wake up!
#106
Bulgarian: ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
USGS: earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
Japan: www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/quake_local_index.html
What we have is a simple disagreement between agencies on the scale of recent earthquakes. This is normal as the size of the quake is still being investigated by the USGS for the first 8 days. I think the safest thing to do is we should stick with the agency that reports the lowest value, until we know for sure. I find it odd, as Bill said, the USGS does not even list some of these quakes. I think we won't really know for sure until these agencies have had time to reach an agreement, and that will probably be sometime next week.
07/24/2009 (7:22 pm)
You can see the data Bill is referring to here: Bulgarian: ndc.geophys.bas.bg/
USGS: earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
Japan: www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/quake_local_index.html
What we have is a simple disagreement between agencies on the scale of recent earthquakes. This is normal as the size of the quake is still being investigated by the USGS for the first 8 days. I think the safest thing to do is we should stick with the agency that reports the lowest value, until we know for sure. I find it odd, as Bill said, the USGS does not even list some of these quakes. I think we won't really know for sure until these agencies have had time to reach an agreement, and that will probably be sometime next week.
#107
07/24/2009 (7:45 pm)
Fair enough, Britton, but I think the Bulgarian site, not the USGS, will prove your theory correct since it ACKNOWLEDGES more earthquakes and LARGER earthquakes. Your theory makes so much sense to me, I want to see it proven correct. So, good luck to you!
#108
Furthermore, speaking of just the USA map, only having three sizes of boxes, i.e., 1, 3 and 5, really sacrifices a true visual picture of what is occurring. For example, a 2.9 earthquake would receive a "1" box, a 4.9 earthquake would receive a "3" box, and a magnitude 6, 7, 8 or above would receive a "5" box. Again, I expect much, much better from a scientific site.
If it appears that I am building a case for the Bulgarian site having more credibility, I plead "guilty!"
07/24/2009 (9:29 pm)
Besides not reporting earthquakes, I am less inclined to believe the magnitudes reported by the USGS due to the manner in which it reports. That is, if an earthquake is more than one hour old, it changes to "last day" and if an earthquake is more than 24 hours old, it changes to "last week". I believe this is VERY misleading when one cannot differentiate between an earthquake that occurred 25 hours ago from one that occurred 7 days ago. I expect much better from a scientific site.Furthermore, speaking of just the USA map, only having three sizes of boxes, i.e., 1, 3 and 5, really sacrifices a true visual picture of what is occurring. For example, a 2.9 earthquake would receive a "1" box, a 4.9 earthquake would receive a "3" box, and a magnitude 6, 7, 8 or above would receive a "5" box. Again, I expect much, much better from a scientific site.
If it appears that I am building a case for the Bulgarian site having more credibility, I plead "guilty!"
#109
We have a 6.2 in PAPUA NEW GUINEA
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmae.php
Quakes are moving eastward and getting bigger. This round skipped over Japan and went south, but still along eclipse path. This is a total guess, but we may now cycle back west again for the third and possibly final wave of larger earthquakes.
According to Jim Berkland's theory syzygy occurs when the Sun, Moon and Earth are in a straight line. This is when he predicts earthquakes based off of the tidal forces. To him a lunar eclipse is also important.
The Lunar Eclipse of July 7, 2009 was followed by a solar eclipse on July 22, 2009 and will be followed by another lunar eclipse on August 6, 2009. So this one gets three syzygy(s) in a row.
What this means to me is that the orbital path of the moon is keeping a perfect axis with the sun. That means the tidal forces will be magnified with this eclipse. That's why I picked this one for my first earthquake prediction (that and it passed over the most earthquake prone region in the world)
Notice the side view, the moon is in a straight line with the sun as it orbits (the y axis never changes for 30 days, or it does but it stays within bounds so that its at the same point on the y axis at the next critical moment) I believe this is why we are having 5 meter tides in India.
I figured the odds would be the highest in my favor with this 2009 total solar eclipse, if there was anything to the eclipse quake theory. I figured it would be the highest odds in over a decade, and the past two decades showed a great deal of correlation to quakes the week after the eclipse in this region.
I also know that these triple play eclipses will occur frequently for the next 11 years or so. I figure I can make a name for myself if I'm right, and I'm hoping that this will lead to interest in me putting a team together and developing the simulator. But I honestly think that even if I'm 100% correct the odds of me actually getting funding are slim to none. This one will probably be chalked up to pure chance.
The flip side is, if we don't get a biggie then the effect of the eclipse is probably limited.
I just didn't expect so much attention before I was deemed to be correct.
07/25/2009 (2:28 am)
@Bill, obviously I am biased, and want to prove my theory. I have to be even more cautious that my bias does not influence my judgment.We have a 6.2 in PAPUA NEW GUINEA
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmae.php
Quakes are moving eastward and getting bigger. This round skipped over Japan and went south, but still along eclipse path. This is a total guess, but we may now cycle back west again for the third and possibly final wave of larger earthquakes.
According to Jim Berkland's theory syzygy occurs when the Sun, Moon and Earth are in a straight line. This is when he predicts earthquakes based off of the tidal forces. To him a lunar eclipse is also important.
The Lunar Eclipse of July 7, 2009 was followed by a solar eclipse on July 22, 2009 and will be followed by another lunar eclipse on August 6, 2009. So this one gets three syzygy(s) in a row.
What this means to me is that the orbital path of the moon is keeping a perfect axis with the sun. That means the tidal forces will be magnified with this eclipse. That's why I picked this one for my first earthquake prediction (that and it passed over the most earthquake prone region in the world)
Notice the side view, the moon is in a straight line with the sun as it orbits (the y axis never changes for 30 days, or it does but it stays within bounds so that its at the same point on the y axis at the next critical moment) I believe this is why we are having 5 meter tides in India.
I figured the odds would be the highest in my favor with this 2009 total solar eclipse, if there was anything to the eclipse quake theory. I figured it would be the highest odds in over a decade, and the past two decades showed a great deal of correlation to quakes the week after the eclipse in this region.
I also know that these triple play eclipses will occur frequently for the next 11 years or so. I figure I can make a name for myself if I'm right, and I'm hoping that this will lead to interest in me putting a team together and developing the simulator. But I honestly think that even if I'm 100% correct the odds of me actually getting funding are slim to none. This one will probably be chalked up to pure chance.
The flip side is, if we don't get a biggie then the effect of the eclipse is probably limited.
I just didn't expect so much attention before I was deemed to be correct.
#110
Yes, I see the 6.2, which is given a much higher magnitude by BNSDC. BNSDC is also reporting a 7.2 in the North Pacific Ocean at the exact same time, which the USGS is not reporting.
Anyway, I'm going to back off now. I just wanted to throw in my two cents about the USGS so that it might help you prove your theory if you didn't rely entirely on their data and/or lack of.
Bill
07/25/2009 (3:02 am)
Britton,Yes, I see the 6.2, which is given a much higher magnitude by BNSDC. BNSDC is also reporting a 7.2 in the North Pacific Ocean at the exact same time, which the USGS is not reporting.
Anyway, I'm going to back off now. I just wanted to throw in my two cents about the USGS so that it might help you prove your theory if you didn't rely entirely on their data and/or lack of.
Bill
#111
The theory he is using (if I'm not mistaken) is based off of the theory of relativity and our motion through the galaxy, not just the Newtonian method of calculating gravity. He overlays the gravitational pull model with the relative model on the earth to make his calculations. So on his image model you see the black lines of the galaxy intersect the red lines of the sun and moon's gravitational pull. That is where he predicts his quakes.
My brain is so locked 17th century Newtonian physics, I don't really get the whole of it. I'm not really sure what to think of it, but it looks pretty cool. He thinks I'll get my quake on the 29th. If he can send me a PNG of JPG image and he agrees I'll post his data here.
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07/25/2009 (3:43 am)
Ed oberg has been sending me images via email he has been computing based off of the earth's location to the center of the galaxy in addition to the sun and moon's gravitational pull. The theory he is using (if I'm not mistaken) is based off of the theory of relativity and our motion through the galaxy, not just the Newtonian method of calculating gravity. He overlays the gravitational pull model with the relative model on the earth to make his calculations. So on his image model you see the black lines of the galaxy intersect the red lines of the sun and moon's gravitational pull. That is where he predicts his quakes.
My brain is so locked 17th century Newtonian physics, I don't really get the whole of it. I'm not really sure what to think of it, but it looks pretty cool. He thinks I'll get my quake on the 29th. If he can send me a PNG of JPG image and he agrees I'll post his data here.
#112
If we don't see a significant increase with the triple syzygy then in my mind, we have disproved the theory. I don't see how we could have not have an increase under the best possible circumstances for the eclipse quake theory.
In the mean time we had 4.0+ magnitude quakes last week and 5-6.0 magnitudes this week.
07/25/2009 (3:36 pm)
Again, to eliminate the possibility of pure chance I want to take the yearly average number of quakes above 4.5 and compare this to the numbers before and after the eclipse. Then compare the numbers for July 7th through August 6th.If we don't see a significant increase with the triple syzygy then in my mind, we have disproved the theory. I don't see how we could have not have an increase under the best possible circumstances for the eclipse quake theory.
In the mean time we had 4.0+ magnitude quakes last week and 5-6.0 magnitudes this week.
#113
Are you going to drop the theory???
Or you still forsee any possiblity of Big quake??
Regds
Rakesh.
07/25/2009 (3:46 pm)
Britton, Are you going to drop the theory???
Or you still forsee any possiblity of Big quake??
Regds
Rakesh.
#114
What we are seeing this week does seem to indicate a big after effect from the eclipse. I think we should see if this week July 22nd - 30th is special even if we don't get a quake in the exact spot I predicted.
07/25/2009 (4:27 pm)
@Rakesh, I expect a big on in Japan by July 30th. I see an increase in quake activity all this week 4 days after the eclipse. On the 29th 30th we will have the moon at a 90 degree angle to the Sun. I expect the quake by the end of July.What we are seeing this week does seem to indicate a big after effect from the eclipse. I think we should see if this week July 22nd - 30th is special even if we don't get a quake in the exact spot I predicted.
#115
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
Indonesia 5.2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnbm.php
Got a 5.1 in Taiwan.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnak.php
More Indonesia 5.2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmbe.php
How can this be a coincidence that all these 5+ quakes are in the same region at the same time? The only one that does not belong is the one in Argentina.
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.2 2009/07/26 15:27:04 11.862 94.351 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/07/26 13:29:14 10.666 94.296 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/07/26 06:10:58 23.434 121.439 6.1 TAIWAN
MAP 5.4 2009/07/26 06:06:46 -0.356 132.273 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2009/07/26 05:03:16 -20.123 169.833 236.7 VANUATU
MAP 5.6 2009/07/25 19:03:21 -29.875 -177.778 31.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.2 2009/07/25 18:41:58 1.821 96.982 43.3 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2009/07/25 11:32:24 44.906 147.984 113.2 KURIL ISLANDS
MAP 5.1 2009/07/25 04:17:11 -23.953 -66.482 181.6 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
MAP 6.0 2009/07/25 01:42:24 -6.478 154.930 35.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
07/26/2009 (4:50 pm)
More quakes as we approach a 90 degree angle with the sun. We have more than the average for today. All these quakes in the same region of the world. Coincidence? I think not.earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php
Indonesia 5.2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnbm.php
Got a 5.1 in Taiwan.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnak.php
More Indonesia 5.2
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jmbe.php
How can this be a coincidence that all these 5+ quakes are in the same region at the same time? The only one that does not belong is the one in Argentina.
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.2 2009/07/26 15:27:04 11.862 94.351 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/07/26 13:29:14 10.666 94.296 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/07/26 06:10:58 23.434 121.439 6.1 TAIWAN
MAP 5.4 2009/07/26 06:06:46 -0.356 132.273 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2009/07/26 05:03:16 -20.123 169.833 236.7 VANUATU
MAP 5.6 2009/07/25 19:03:21 -29.875 -177.778 31.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.2 2009/07/25 18:41:58 1.821 96.982 43.3 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2009/07/25 11:32:24 44.906 147.984 113.2 KURIL ISLANDS
MAP 5.1 2009/07/25 04:17:11 -23.953 -66.482 181.6 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
MAP 6.0 2009/07/25 01:42:24 -6.478 154.930 35.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
#116
Yes, there are continious quakes are happening in the East side..those are more than 5+quakes.
Eventhough there is no much bigger quake,i beleive there is relation to your theory(between Eclipse and Tides and Quakes)
I hope there will be some thing soon...may be indonasia region...also it may be in a week/month/year..
Since i seen your blog,its very difficult to me to leave your site.. I making frequent visits to your site,it realy distrubing my activities.
regds
Rakesh.
07/26/2009 (5:50 pm)
Britton, Yes, there are continious quakes are happening in the East side..those are more than 5+quakes.
Eventhough there is no much bigger quake,i beleive there is relation to your theory(between Eclipse and Tides and Quakes)
I hope there will be some thing soon...may be indonasia region...also it may be in a week/month/year..
Since i seen your blog,its very difficult to me to leave your site.. I making frequent visits to your site,it realy distrubing my activities.
regds
Rakesh.
#117
Looks like something is going to happen soon....
07/26/2009 (6:08 pm)
Yes i was about to say that there's an unusually high number of earthquakes in the Andaman island regions as well.Looks like something is going to happen soon....
#118
Sadly that's what we may get. We have a 6.2 (now 5.8) in Indonesia now.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/pt09207002.php
Magnitude 6.2 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
* Sunday, July 26, 2009 at 23:10:26 UTC
* Monday, July 27, 2009 at 06:10:26 AM at epicenter
Location 4.910°S, 102.800°E
Depth 66 km (41.0 miles) set by location program
Region SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Hmm... just got downgraded to a 5.8. Anyway am I the only one that thinks all this quake activity since the eclipse is abnormal?
Another just now 6.2 in Vanuatu Indonesia
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnb9.php
Another 6.2 downgraded to 5.7 in SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jncb.php
So where are the sun and moon right now? The sun is straight up, the moon is less than 90 degrees to the east, estimating between 48 and 60 degrees east of the sun.
You don't have to be a genius to predict where the quakes will be in the next few days. They will be near the same spots (just bigger) where the quakes were a few days ago.
I'd think that the 4.7 in Japan on July 22nd 2009 (that I predicted) will be a bigger quake in a few days. Same with the 5.1 I predicted in Taiwan. These are the only significant quakes that are in my time window I can claim. Oh and this one 4.6 below. These match the three circles I drew back in January.
Quakes I accurately predicted with this theory several months in advance
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jja2.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnak.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnaf.php
There is more than enough supporting evidence that these quakes were predicted months in advance. I expect bigger ones in the very near future. But, for my first attempt with this theory, I have a significant quake in every circle I drew back in January. I did extend the window back in May / June. But I never changed the locations. August 1st I'll draw all the quakes predicted between July 22nd - July 30th with the eclipse quake theory. I got a significant quake in each circle... I'm 3 for 3. As for the next part (the magnitude was wrong), like I said, bigger quakes near the same spot in a few days.
What are odds that this is pure chance? I'd like to know.
07/26/2009 (11:12 pm)
Sadly, unless its big it won't get attention. Even if the theory is 100% accurate magnitude 5 and below doesn't really get attention. We need a 7.0 + monster somewhere. That is the only level we can get a tsunami with. A 7.0 and a tsunami is really the only thing that will raise enough awareness to pay attention to total solar eclipses.Sadly that's what we may get. We have a 6.2 (now 5.8) in Indonesia now.
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/pt09207002.php
Magnitude 6.2 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time
* Sunday, July 26, 2009 at 23:10:26 UTC
* Monday, July 27, 2009 at 06:10:26 AM at epicenter
Location 4.910°S, 102.800°E
Depth 66 km (41.0 miles) set by location program
Region SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Hmm... just got downgraded to a 5.8. Anyway am I the only one that thinks all this quake activity since the eclipse is abnormal?
Another just now 6.2 in Vanuatu Indonesia
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnb9.php
Another 6.2 downgraded to 5.7 in SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jncb.php
So where are the sun and moon right now? The sun is straight up, the moon is less than 90 degrees to the east, estimating between 48 and 60 degrees east of the sun.
You don't have to be a genius to predict where the quakes will be in the next few days. They will be near the same spots (just bigger) where the quakes were a few days ago.
I'd think that the 4.7 in Japan on July 22nd 2009 (that I predicted) will be a bigger quake in a few days. Same with the 5.1 I predicted in Taiwan. These are the only significant quakes that are in my time window I can claim. Oh and this one 4.6 below. These match the three circles I drew back in January.
Quakes I accurately predicted with this theory several months in advance
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jja2.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnak.php
earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jnaf.php
There is more than enough supporting evidence that these quakes were predicted months in advance. I expect bigger ones in the very near future. But, for my first attempt with this theory, I have a significant quake in every circle I drew back in January. I did extend the window back in May / June. But I never changed the locations. August 1st I'll draw all the quakes predicted between July 22nd - July 30th with the eclipse quake theory. I got a significant quake in each circle... I'm 3 for 3. As for the next part (the magnitude was wrong), like I said, bigger quakes near the same spot in a few days.
What are odds that this is pure chance? I'd like to know.
#119
I'm now going to step down from the quake podium and quote Ed Oberg. For more info see www.iasoberg.com
He and I think that the 29th is a good day for a larger quake in Japan. Images below.
Global Iasoberg
Japan Highlight
What does this mean exactly? Well, I'm not really sure. Visit www.iasoberg.com for more information. I think the bad news is when the black lines get closer to the red lines. Apparently they get close enough at 10:00 UT to have an effect in Japan.
07/27/2009 (10:03 pm)
So, here we go into the final days of my prediction. I just downloaded and image of Asia at the top it says 67 earthquakes on this map. The one posted here two days ago shows 37. That means we had 30 earthquakes in two days. Not all were significant, but that is a great deal of earthquakes, in just two days. The quakes today do seem to be bit smaller 5.1 for the most part instead of 5.7 like we saw yesterday.I'm now going to step down from the quake podium and quote Ed Oberg. For more info see www.iasoberg.com
Quote:
The Iasoberg Model which locates the Allais Effect on the Earth's surface is based on the concept that, at the barycenter of the Earth Moon System the graviational potentials of the galaxy and sun are distorted and extend to the surface of the Earth. He is currently attempting to corrlelate the location and geometry of the Iasoberg Model with severe weather events in the continental US. The Allais Effect may also be a triggering mechanism for seismic activity as well as influencing other physical terrestrial phenomena. He has superimposed the output of his model (Red Solar Iasbergs/Black Galactic Iasobergs refer to Iasoberg Model www.iasoberg.com) on the Filipino Tectonic Plate and the terrestial Papua New Guinea gravitational anomaly for specific instances of time.
He has not predicted any quakes but provided the time in UT and location of the intersection of his model with the Filipino Tectionic Plate and PNG anomaly for the day and following days of the eclipse and the 29th of July.
He and I think that the 29th is a good day for a larger quake in Japan. Images below.
Global Iasoberg
Japan Highlight
What does this mean exactly? Well, I'm not really sure. Visit www.iasoberg.com for more information. I think the bad news is when the black lines get closer to the red lines. Apparently they get close enough at 10:00 UT to have an effect in Japan.
#120
As Myanmar, known as Burma, also is sitting on four tectonic plates, Burma Plate, India Plate, Sunda(SU)Plate and Eurasia(EU) Plates and also having recent series of earthquakes(may be small ones) in Andaman Sea, I am worried about your prediction may trigger big one at the junction of those 4 plates as shown in picture below.
(Please correct the codes if pictures doesn't show below :P )
At the border of Burma Plate and Sunda Plate already had 25 medium earthquakes from 26th July to 28th July and scales comes higher and higher !
What do you think about this situation?
I am already agree with your prediction with every evidences showing up recently.
07/28/2009 (10:54 am)
Hi Mr. Britton,As Myanmar, known as Burma, also is sitting on four tectonic plates, Burma Plate, India Plate, Sunda(SU)Plate and Eurasia(EU) Plates and also having recent series of earthquakes(may be small ones) in Andaman Sea, I am worried about your prediction may trigger big one at the junction of those 4 plates as shown in picture below.
(Please correct the codes if pictures doesn't show below :P )
At the border of Burma Plate and Sunda Plate already had 25 medium earthquakes from 26th July to 28th July and scales comes higher and higher !
What do you think about this situation?
I am already agree with your prediction with every evidences showing up recently.
Rakesh
http://www.timesnow.tv/Mumbai-high-tide-No-cause-for-panic/videoshow/4322979.cms
Please go to the above link. This is the biggest tide of Mumbai,since last 100 years.
Do you have a any data, which shows occurances of Tsunami for the last 2 centuries??
Regs
Rakesh