Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 598 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
The next Tokai Quake in Japan will most likely take place on July 08 2012. The prediction was made on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. The prediction is based on equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series and the related extreme tidal pressure on subducted tectonic plates. We do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan on May 20 2012. However it is the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 and its saros series 140 that is predicted to trigger the earthquake.
NASA Solar Eclipse Images May 2012
Below are the results of the database query. We looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. We found the following historic earthquakes, looked at the quake cycle and calculated the prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the historic eclipse to predict the next earthquake.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
It is possible that calculating the build up of force between the plates and taking account of the tidal pressures from the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
The tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year.
Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan's shore.
The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? Based on previous the previous track record in this blog it is about a 20% chance. However we firmly believe we have an 80% chance of a 6.0 or greater on or about July 8th in the region. The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
View Stats
The next Tokai Quake in Japan will most likely take place on July 08 2012. The prediction was made on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. The prediction is based on equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series and the related extreme tidal pressure on subducted tectonic plates. We do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan on May 20 2012. However it is the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 and its saros series 140 that is predicted to trigger the earthquake.
NASA Solar Eclipse Images May 2012
Below are the results of the database query. We looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. We found the following historic earthquakes, looked at the quake cycle and calculated the prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the historic eclipse to predict the next earthquake.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
It is possible that calculating the build up of force between the plates and taking account of the tidal pressures from the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
The tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year.
Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan's shore.
The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? Based on previous the previous track record in this blog it is about a 20% chance. However we firmly believe we have an 80% chance of a 6.0 or greater on or about July 8th in the region. The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
"Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
#582
02/11/2012 (4:38 pm)
Doesn't sound too convincing.... The 1812 quakes sound more problematic..Quote:
1812 - Unknown day and month
Señora Juana Briones related that the earthquakes were so severe in San Francisco as to cause tidal waves which covered the ground where the [Portsmouth Square] plaza is now. Adobe chapel at the Presidio, built in 1776, collapsed.
May 1, 1812
Southern California was subject to nearly continuous earthquake shocks for four and one-half months. Four days seldom elapsed without at least one shock. The inhabitants abandoned their homes and lived out of doors.
December 1812
The Missions at San Juan Capistrano, Santa Barbara and Purisima were wrecked by earthquake. An eyewitness said the quake was "sufficiently severe to prostrate the mission church of San Juan Capistrano almost in a body, burying in its ruins the most of who remained behind, after the first indication of its approach was heard." Death toll was estimated from 30 to 45, and a number of persons were badly injured. A shock an hour later destroyed what buildings remained. At Santa Barbara, inhabitants saw the recession of the sea and fled to the hills to escape the probable deluge. The incoming sea then flowed inland half a mile. There had been a series of quakes here for one month preceding the big shocks. This year became known as el año de los temblores.
#583
02/11/2012 (4:40 pm)
So looking at 1812 to 2012 we have about 200 years not 300 years of build up. More research is needed.
#584
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017.
The biggest question to me is if the 1944 quake was in fact the earthquake that released stress. If it did then we may not be due. The Japanese research that I could find suggested they did not think it was the same quake cycle.
02/12/2012 (12:19 pm)
I'm re-posting this section from the cover of the blog to keep a chronological record.I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017.
The biggest question to me is if the 1944 quake was in fact the earthquake that released stress. If it did then we may not be due. The Japanese research that I could find suggested they did not think it was the same quake cycle.
#585
The closest tectonic plate to cape cod is in the mid Atlantic. However there is a fault line called Cameron's line near by. Cameron's line Referenced here.
02/12/2012 (12:56 pm)
In other news dolphin beaching is reaching a new height at cape cod. News Story HereQuote:
About 160 common dolphins have been found since the animals began stranding themselves in early January, said Michael Booth, a spokesman for the International Fund for Animal Welfare, the organization leading the rescue the effort.
The beachings have puzzled investigators, as rescue team members struggle to treat, tag and transport the living dolphins to the outer Cape Cod coast to be released.
The closest tectonic plate to cape cod is in the mid Atlantic. However there is a fault line called Cameron's line near by. Cameron's line Referenced here.
Quote:CM interprets Cameron's Line as a thrust fault within a deep-seated subduction complex that formed during the medial Ordovician Taconic orogeny adjacent to the Early Paleozoic shelf edge of eastern North America.
#586
My main effort is that I'm working on combining the historic quakes with a basic stress build up calculation.
In tandem I'm working on the "Greater tectonic movement" method to see if I can pin down the harder to hit "intraplate earthquakes" ... like Boston and Tulsa. Its a bit sketchy at best. The idea is that the main plate moves in segments. If we have 7 major plates then a corresponding quake in a neighboring plate causes the plate next to it to shift. It does so by minor quakes in the middle, and the opposite side, before a major quake on the neighboring edge. Its like the whole plate has to shift over before we get the big one on the edge where its wants to slide over.
I'd expect quakes in the middle of the NA plate, on the east coast and then the mid Atlantic before we get the big one on the west coast. Reason is NA is sliding over to fill the gap caused by the big one (9.0) on the western edge of the pacific plate (near Japan) last year.
Here is the prediction on September 5th I'm referring to:
On November 8th I made the following post
I'd expect something (magnitude 4.5 to 5.0) near Boston in the next 30 days. I'd expect something in the mid Atlantic a few months after that. Again this is just applying the theory that the North American plate is slowly shifting westward. You may wonder why I picked Tulsa and Boston. The answer is I was watching for abnormal intraplate quakes in North America after the Japan quake. We had some in Oklahoma and Boston. I based my prediction on the fact that NA was shifting and would shift again in the same locations.
bostonherald.com/news/regional/view/2011_0823earthquake_felt_in_boston
Here we go again... (maybe) I have little faith in this new method.
02/13/2012 (9:23 pm)
Cape cod is not too far from Boston MA. Refer back to my accurate magnitude 5.0 in Tulsa Oklahoma a few months ago. I mentioned Boston MA then. In my opinion (based on the new tectonic plate shift method) we may get a magnitude 5.0 around Cameron's line in the near future. The problem with my new "Greater tectonic movement" method is its not based on historic quakes so I can't pin down an exact date. Honestly, I'm not sure about the "Greater tectonic movement" method just yet. My main effort is that I'm working on combining the historic quakes with a basic stress build up calculation.
In tandem I'm working on the "Greater tectonic movement" method to see if I can pin down the harder to hit "intraplate earthquakes" ... like Boston and Tulsa. Its a bit sketchy at best. The idea is that the main plate moves in segments. If we have 7 major plates then a corresponding quake in a neighboring plate causes the plate next to it to shift. It does so by minor quakes in the middle, and the opposite side, before a major quake on the neighboring edge. Its like the whole plate has to shift over before we get the big one on the edge where its wants to slide over.
I'd expect quakes in the middle of the NA plate, on the east coast and then the mid Atlantic before we get the big one on the west coast. Reason is NA is sliding over to fill the gap caused by the big one (9.0) on the western edge of the pacific plate (near Japan) last year.
Here is the prediction on September 5th I'm referring to:
Quote: Quote:
09/05/2011 (9:57 pm)
Marilyn,
Well, I have new method I'm working on.
I'm trying to predict the land based intra-plate quakes. So far it looks like quakes in Boston MA and near Tulsa OK. Less than a 6.0 but enough to get attention. This new theory is based on larger plate tectonic movements.
On November 8th I made the following post
Quote:
11/08/2011
Score 1 point for the new method. I got my Tulsa Oklahoma quake. Predicted 2 months in advance.
Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time
* Sunday, November 06, 2011 at 03:53:10 UTC
* Saturday, November 05, 2011 at 10:53:10 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 35.537N, 96.747W
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles)
Region OKLAHOMA
Distances
I'd expect something (magnitude 4.5 to 5.0) near Boston in the next 30 days. I'd expect something in the mid Atlantic a few months after that. Again this is just applying the theory that the North American plate is slowly shifting westward. You may wonder why I picked Tulsa and Boston. The answer is I was watching for abnormal intraplate quakes in North America after the Japan quake. We had some in Oklahoma and Boston. I based my prediction on the fact that NA was shifting and would shift again in the same locations.
Quote:
"Aug 23, 2011 An earthquake centered in Virginia shook the Eastern Seaboard just before 2 p.m., and was felt as a rumble lasting several seconds in the ..."
bostonherald.com/news/regional/view/2011_0823earthquake_felt_in_boston
Quote:
A magnitude 5.8 earthquake centered in Virginia rattled Boston today, with Hub residents reporting buildings ...
Here we go again... (maybe) I have little faith in this new method.
#587
Many reports of magnetic disturbances that accompany an earthquake have been reported. In many cases they have been recorded by scientific instruments. The question remains what causes the magnetic disturbances. I believe the magnetic disturbance interferes with the natural migration of marine mammals and causes them to beach themselves.
I expect to see more beachings near Japan in the next few months.
In Japan, an earthquake prediction program was started in 1964 and a subsequent five-year plan was formulated by Rikitake. This program became focused in 1978 on predicting a magnitude 8 earthquake in the Tokai district, near Tokyo, which may become a major disaster for Japan, and the world economy, once it happens. Japan is now the best instrumented country in the world for recording seismic waves, crustal deformation, properties of ground water, and electro-magnetic transients, all as part of a massive effort to try to understand the earthquake generation process.
03/18/2012 (8:05 pm)
www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-03/19/content_14858459.htmQuote:
Four beached whales die in Yancheng
Updated: 2012-03-19 07:37
By Cang Wei and Song Wenwei in Nanjing (China Daily)
Four sperm whales that got stranded ashore died on Saturday in the coastal city of Yancheng, in East China's Jiangsu province, more than 24 hours after rescue attempts began.
Many reports of magnetic disturbances that accompany an earthquake have been reported. In many cases they have been recorded by scientific instruments. The question remains what causes the magnetic disturbances. I believe the magnetic disturbance interferes with the natural migration of marine mammals and causes them to beach themselves.
I expect to see more beachings near Japan in the next few months.
In Japan, an earthquake prediction program was started in 1964 and a subsequent five-year plan was formulated by Rikitake. This program became focused in 1978 on predicting a magnitude 8 earthquake in the Tokai district, near Tokyo, which may become a major disaster for Japan, and the world economy, once it happens. Japan is now the best instrumented country in the world for recording seismic waves, crustal deformation, properties of ground water, and electro-magnetic transients, all as part of a massive effort to try to understand the earthquake generation process.
#588
Still waiting to determine the cause of death. I've been expecting a major quake in Peru over the past two years. So I'll post the database predictions here:
Long Story short, I expect a major quake in Peru (greater than a 7.0) between May and August of this year.
04/19/2012 (1:28 pm)
www.iol.co.za/news/world/peru-to-investigate-dolphin-deaths-1.1280222Quote:
Officials in Peru said Thursday they are investigating what caused the deaths of nearly 900 dolphins that have washed up on its northern coast over the past four months.
Still waiting to determine the cause of death. I've been expecting a major quake in Peru over the past two years. So I'll post the database predictions here:
PREDICTED ORIGIN ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS_PAST SAROS MAG LAT LONG YEARS NUM REGION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-05-04 1687-10-20 1687-11-05 -16 128 8.5 -13.5 -76.5 5 11 PERU: LIMA 2012-05-05 1687-10-20 1687-11-19 -30 140 8.5 -13.5 -76.5 5 11 PERU: LIMA 2012-05-08 2007-08-15 2007-08-28 -12 128 8.0 -13.3 -76.60 5 11 PERU: ICA; PISCO; LIMA 2012-05-08 2007-08-15 2007-08-28 -12 128 8.0 -13.3 -76.60 5 11 PERU: ICA; PISCO; LIMA 2012-07-07 1940-05-24 1940-04-07 48 128 8.2 -10.5 -77 38 7 PERU 2012-07-07 1940-05-24 1940-04-22 33 140 8.2 -10.5 -77 38 7 PERU 2012-08-28 1958-07-26 1958-10-12 -77 133 7.5 -13.5 -69 18 2 PERU: S 2012-08-28 1958-07-26 1958-05-03 85 140 7.5 -13.5 -69 18 2 PERU: S 2012-10-07 1953-12-12 1954-01-19 -37 133 7.4 -3.4 -80.6 215 1 OFF COAST OF PERU
Long Story short, I expect a major quake in Peru (greater than a 7.0) between May and August of this year.
#589
04/24/2012 (4:58 am)
Any new updates for the 8.1 Japan EarthQuake you predicted for April 27th 2012- Some of us over here in Japan are getting a little concerned.
#590
Small one in the KII PENINSULA area.....
04/27/2012 (6:24 am)
www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120427220739491-272203.htmlSmall one in the KII PENINSULA area.....
#591
I'm not seeing beachings in or near Japan just yet (due to changes in the magnetic field). I'm holding to the July 8th prediction date, dont expect the big one sooner than that. I do expect some decent quakes in the area about 2 to 4 weeks after the solar eclipse on May 20th. If we do see rumblings along the Tokai fault lines, I will get worried.
Interesting to note we did have a small one and Henrik pointed out on the 27th of April.
04/29/2012 (1:08 pm)
@Rob, typically there are magnetic anomalies before a quake and a series of small quakes near or around the tectonic plate... at least for the ones that I've predicted correctly. I'm not seeing beachings in or near Japan just yet (due to changes in the magnetic field). I'm holding to the July 8th prediction date, dont expect the big one sooner than that. I do expect some decent quakes in the area about 2 to 4 weeks after the solar eclipse on May 20th. If we do see rumblings along the Tokai fault lines, I will get worried.
Interesting to note we did have a small one and Henrik pointed out on the 27th of April.
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA
#592
Dr. Arunachalam Kumar, dean of the K S Hegde Medical Academy in Mangalore, on India's west coast, is convinced that the beaching of marine mammals is a harbinger of earthquakes.
Kumar predicted the boxing day earthquake - which resulted in the tsunami of Dec. 2004 - in a posting he had made on the Princeton University Natural History E-Group three weeks before the calamity.
Analysing the stranding of 90 pilot whales off the coast of Tasmania in Nov. 2004 Kumar wrote on Nov. 29: 'In my observation, confirmed over the years, mass suicides of cetaceans are related to disturbances in the electromagnetic field coordinates and possible realignments of geo-tectonic plates thereof. By calibrating the epicentres against dates of strandings, I am reasonably certain that major earthquakes usually follow within a week or two of mass beaching of cetaceans.
On Dec. 26 an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale struck and triggered the tsunami that left 230,000 people dead around the Indian Ocean.
The recent whale strandings of a pod of whales near the New Zealand coast on Aug. 20 portends a major earthquake on land or undersea within two to three weeks from the date of the event,' Kumar wrote in his blog on Aug. 23, 2010. 'This month end (August 2010) or early next month there should be a quake or massive volcano in the Indonesian archipelago.'
Indonesia's Mount Sinabung, a 400-year-old volcano previously classified as extinct, erupted on Aug. 29 and an earthquake measuring 7.1 on the Richter scale struck New Zealand on Sep. 4, 2010.
05/01/2012 (5:27 am)
mangaloretoday.com/mt/index.php?action=mn&type=1570Dr. Arunachalam Kumar, dean of the K S Hegde Medical Academy in Mangalore, on India's west coast, is convinced that the beaching of marine mammals is a harbinger of earthquakes.
Kumar predicted the boxing day earthquake - which resulted in the tsunami of Dec. 2004 - in a posting he had made on the Princeton University Natural History E-Group three weeks before the calamity.
Analysing the stranding of 90 pilot whales off the coast of Tasmania in Nov. 2004 Kumar wrote on Nov. 29: 'In my observation, confirmed over the years, mass suicides of cetaceans are related to disturbances in the electromagnetic field coordinates and possible realignments of geo-tectonic plates thereof. By calibrating the epicentres against dates of strandings, I am reasonably certain that major earthquakes usually follow within a week or two of mass beaching of cetaceans.
On Dec. 26 an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale struck and triggered the tsunami that left 230,000 people dead around the Indian Ocean.
The recent whale strandings of a pod of whales near the New Zealand coast on Aug. 20 portends a major earthquake on land or undersea within two to three weeks from the date of the event,' Kumar wrote in his blog on Aug. 23, 2010. 'This month end (August 2010) or early next month there should be a quake or massive volcano in the Indonesian archipelago.'
Indonesia's Mount Sinabung, a 400-year-old volcano previously classified as extinct, erupted on Aug. 29 and an earthquake measuring 7.1 on the Richter scale struck New Zealand on Sep. 4, 2010.
#593
Eclipse with Maximum tidal forces on these plates will be in 6 days. I expect repeated weakening of the friction holding the plates in place. This will culminate a few weeks after the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 this summer.
05/14/2012 (3:34 pm)
I'm seeing what I'd expect about this time if we would have a big quake in Japan. Lots of 4.5 to 5.0 quakes along all the tectonic plates surrounding Japan. The plates are already moving, slowly.Eclipse with Maximum tidal forces on these plates will be in 6 days. I expect repeated weakening of the friction holding the plates in place. This will culminate a few weeks after the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 this summer.
#594
Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time
Sunday, May 20, 2012 at 07:19:55 UTC
Sunday, May 20, 2012 at 05:19:55 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 39.597°N, 143.242°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 179 km (111 miles) E of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
181 km (112 miles) SE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
251 km (155 miles) ESE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
532 km (330 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan
It is not a coincidence, its a very strong correlation between maximum tidal forces and quakes in Japan.
www.thesundaily.my/news/383660
I predicted the 9.0... I predict a magnitude 8.0 land based quake on or about July 08 2012. Here we go...
05/20/2012 (8:25 pm)
Bingo... As expected. We get a 6.0 and a few more like it. If I'm right then a few hundred years from now the Japanese will be well prepared for the next Tokai quake. I can't really warn them right now, as I need two big quake predictions to establish a pattern.Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time
Sunday, May 20, 2012 at 07:19:55 UTC
Sunday, May 20, 2012 at 05:19:55 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 39.597°N, 143.242°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 179 km (111 miles) E of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
181 km (112 miles) SE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
251 km (155 miles) ESE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
532 km (330 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan
It is not a coincidence, its a very strong correlation between maximum tidal forces and quakes in Japan.
www.thesundaily.my/news/383660
Quote:
Twin quakes rock Japan
Posted on 20 May 2012 - 06:43pm
Last updated on 20 May 2012 - 08:42pm
TOKYO (May 20, 2012): Japan was hit by two shallow earthquakes in the space of just eight minutes on Sunday, one of them measuring a strong 6.2-magnitude, but there were no reports of damage and no tsunami alert.
The 6.2-magnitude quake struck at 4:20pm (0720 GMT) off Japan's northeast Pacific coast, the national meteorological agency said, followed by a tremor with a reading of 5.7 at 4:28pm.
The US Geological Survey estimated the magnitude of the first quake at 6.0.
The depth of both quakes was about 10 kilometres, the agency said.
"Sea levels may change slightly due to the (first) earthquake but there is no fear of damage resulting from it," the agency said in a statement.
A 9.0-magnitude undersea earthquake off the same coast triggered a monster tsunami on March 11 last year, leaving about 19,000 people dead or missing and crippling the Fukushima nuclear power plant. – AFP
I predicted the 9.0... I predict a magnitude 8.0 land based quake on or about July 08 2012. Here we go...
#595
One theory associating earthquakes with magnetic disrbances is related to the release of Radon gas before an earthquake. The radon interacts with the atmosphere causing magnetic disturbances. The magnetic disturbance causes birds and marine mammals to get lost. In the case of marine mammals they can beach themselves.
animalsandearthquakes.com/etho-geo.htm
Homing pigeons were noted by Jim Berkland to get lost before the Loma-Pietra quake in 1989.
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/05/07/dolphin-deaths-prompt-health-o...
05/21/2012 (3:44 pm)
Peru is DUE too! If this is due to a magnetic disturbance causing migration errors, then Peru is in danger. One theory associating earthquakes with magnetic disrbances is related to the release of Radon gas before an earthquake. The radon interacts with the atmosphere causing magnetic disturbances. The magnetic disturbance causes birds and marine mammals to get lost. In the case of marine mammals they can beach themselves.
animalsandearthquakes.com/etho-geo.htm
Homing pigeons were noted by Jim Berkland to get lost before the Loma-Pietra quake in 1989.
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/05/07/dolphin-deaths-prompt-health-o...
Quote:
In an unprecedented ordinance which has generated both speculation and alarm, Peru has closed all ocean beaches north of Lima to the public.
Health officials are taking the extraordinary step of closing the beaches after hundreds of dolphin carcasses washed up on the shores of Peru and the reason why continues to be a mystery. Peru's Health Ministry and oceanographic institute say 877 dolphins and 1,200 pelicans have been found dead on the beaches since February, but their deaths don't appear to be related.
The warning did not indicate why it might be dangerous to visit beaches. Peru's agricultural safety service ruled out Friday that the pelicans could have died of avian flu, which could be contagious to humans.
Local fishermen and restaurant owners said Saturday's warning hasn't had much effect on their businesses.
#596
Date-Time
Thursday, May 17, 2012 at 03:45:27 UTC
Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 10:45:27 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 12.095S, 76.526W
Depth 100 km (62.1 miles)
Region NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
Distances 60 km (37 miles) E of LIMA, Peru
141 km (87 miles) W of Huancayo, Peru
156 km (96 miles) NNW of Chincha Alta, Peru
159 km (98 miles) SE of Huacho, Peru
Not much quake activity in Peru. But I expect more in the next few weeks.
05/22/2012 (8:09 am)
Magnitude 4.4Date-Time
Thursday, May 17, 2012 at 03:45:27 UTC
Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 10:45:27 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 12.095S, 76.526W
Depth 100 km (62.1 miles)
Region NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
Distances 60 km (37 miles) E of LIMA, Peru
141 km (87 miles) W of Huancayo, Peru
156 km (96 miles) NNW of Chincha Alta, Peru
159 km (98 miles) SE of Huacho, Peru
Not much quake activity in Peru. But I expect more in the next few weeks.
#597
05/23/2012 (9:26 am)
I'm sensing something quite big coming on Britton. There was just a 6.1 in northern Japan a little bit ago, but what I am sensing is much bigger than that...
#598
Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, May 23, 2012 at 15:02:28 UTC
Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 12:02:28 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 41.386N, 142.083E
Depth 71.4 km (44.4 miles)
Region HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
Distances 107 km (66 miles) NNE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
119 km (73 miles) ESE of Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan
127 km (78 miles) ENE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
663 km (411 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.7 km (8.5 miles); depth +/- 6.1 km (3.8 miles)
Parameters NST=556, Nph=559, Dmin=113.5 km, Rmss=0.61 sec, Gp= 14,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=B
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID usb0009wev
05/23/2012 (1:31 pm)
Seneq, I believe its going to be huge. Just focusing on Japan and Peru at the moment. We have another 6.0 in Japan just 3 days after the eclipse.Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, May 23, 2012 at 15:02:28 UTC
Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 12:02:28 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 41.386N, 142.083E
Depth 71.4 km (44.4 miles)
Region HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
Distances 107 km (66 miles) NNE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
119 km (73 miles) ESE of Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan
127 km (78 miles) ENE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
663 km (411 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.7 km (8.5 miles); depth +/- 6.1 km (3.8 miles)
Parameters NST=556, Nph=559, Dmin=113.5 km, Rmss=0.61 sec, Gp= 14,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=B
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID usb0009wev
Torque Owner Britton LaRoche
Scientists believe a big quake is due with a 99% probability in the next 30 years. I'd like to see if I can pick the date with more accuracy.
www.sfmuseum.org/alm/quakes1.html The Spanish missions record earthquakes from July 28th through August 3rd 1769. This correlates to (Saros 114) total eclipse of June 4th 1769. The lunar eclipse (Saros 126) was on June 19th 1769.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_de_Los_Angeles
The Next Lunar Saros for 114 is 2017 Feb 11.
The final Solar Saros for 114 was 1931 Sep 12.
The next 126 lunar Saros is 2021 Nov 19.
The next 126 Solar Saros is 2026 Aug 12.