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Japan Tokai Quake Predicted for late 2016 early 2017

by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 1262 comments

Update Jan 2013: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:

Note: Our method for predicting earthquakes has failed for a Southern California earthquake in the Spring 2011 and for the Tokai earthquake in Japan, and for Istanbul in 2012. This method of predicting earthquakes is still just a theory at this point.

In spite of the setbacks over the past year, we have predicted several significant earthquakes (documented in this blog) using a lunar tidal model. An entire community of people have contributed in this blog. Together we watched earthquake patterns as we made predictions. The authors here have contributed by presenting new ideas and linked research. Together we have refined the model over time. We believe the next window for the Japan Tokai quake is now in late 2016 or early 2017.

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/NankaiTrough600_zps0d6060a0.jpg


The Tokai earthquake article quoted below is linked here: geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm

"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years.... The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting."

Utilizing the theory tha certain lunar and solar eclipse cycles create higher than normal tidal pressure in Japan, we were able to use this model to correctly account for and predict almost all of the past tokai quakes in Japan. See page 43 for the details. www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/43

Current Japan Tokai Predictions based on the Lunar Saros Eclipse Cycle 114 and the resulting tidal pressures.

PREDICTED    QUAKE_DATE   ECLIPSE_DATE DAYS  SAROS   MAG LAT     LONG       REGION
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016-11-19   1498-09-20   1498-12-13   -84   114   8.6   34      138.1    JAPAN: ENSHUNADA SEA
2016-11-19   1498-09-20   1498-12-13   -84   114   7.5   33.5    135.2    JAPAN: NANKAIDO
2017-04-01   1854-12-24   1854-11-20    34   140   8.3   33.20   135.60   JAPAN
2017-04-02   1854-12-24   1854-11-04    50   114   8.3   33.20   135.60   JAPAN

In the past we were not able to pinpoint the exact location. Using the stress transfer algorithm developed by scientist Jeffrey King and his team we now believe we have a method of predicting both the time and the location. Watch the video here for an explanation.

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/stresstransfer.jpg

t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSzzE8ksa5HV0nMtxopKF2Af-SzqyCxasv5pigGYowRvsGtMJMpCQIJybQn

The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.

Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts

The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.

Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)

i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/JapanMarch2011-1.jpg

PREDICTED    ORIGIN       SAROS  MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-08   1916-04-21   118    7.8   33      141      JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU

Actual
DATE         SAROS   MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-11   118     9.0   38.30   142.37   JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU

The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.

P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained



----------------------------- Original 2009 Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------

Eclipse Earthquake Theory

What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.

The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.

Scientific Papers Backing the Theory

This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/

Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.

The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.

AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes

Quote:
Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.

Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies

The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.

Once the donations hit 1 million USD I will quit my full time job and dedicate myself to quake prediction. All I need is a dollar from one million people or a million dollars from one very generous billionaire. Maybe Bill Gates would be interested. ;)

www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif


c.statcounter.com/4721611/0/4d33a7eb/0/View Stats
#381
02/21/2011 (11:51 pm)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usb0001igm.php#details
#382
02/23/2011 (9:01 am)
Arun,

Yes it was, and it occurred during a window where we had maximum tidal forces in the region. The quake was right after the full moon syzgy. It followed after perigee and and earth perihelion.

PREDICTED    ORIGIN       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-05   1916-04-18   7.5   53.3    -170     ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS
2011-03-08   1916-04-21   7.8   33      141      JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
2011-03-09   1939-01-25   8.3   -36.2   -72.2    CHILE: CHILLAN
2011-03-11   1916-04-24   7.2   18.5    -68      DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: SANTO DOMINIGO
2011-03-12   1609-10-20   8.6   -11.9   -77.4    PERU
2011-03-13   1916-04-26   7.3   9.33    -82.55   PANAMA: BOCAS DEL TORO
2011-03-14   1939-01-30   7.8   -6.5    155.5    PAPUA NEW GUINEA: BOUGAINVILLE ISLAND
2011-03-16   1970-05-31   7.9   -9.2    -78.8    PERU
2011-03-17   1993-03-06   7.1   -10.9   164.18   CORAL SEA, AUSTRALIA  
2011-03-24   1988-06-18   7.0   26.86   -111.0   MEXICO, GULF OF CALIFORNIA
2011-03-24   1997-12-05   7.8   54.84   162.04   U:2:RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
2011-03-24   1997-12-05   7.8   54.84   162.03   RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA: UST-KAMCHATSK 
2011-03-27   1970-06-11   7.6   -59.1   157.8    AUSTRALIA: MACQUARIE ISLAND
2011-03-27   1979-11-27   7.1   33.96   59.726   IRAN
2011-03-27   1943-11-06   7.6   -6      134.3    INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA
2011-03-30   1921-02-04   7.5   15      -91      MEXICO-GUATEMALA
2011-04-10   1979-12-12   7.7   1.598   -79.35   COLOMBIA: OFF SHORE; PACIFIC OCEAN
2011-04-10   2006-07-17   7.7   -9.25   107.41   JAVA; INDONESIA
2011-04-10   1997-12-22   7.2   -5.49   147.87   PAPUA NEW GUINEA; SOLOMON SEA
2011-04-10   1957-03-08   7.0   39.4    22.8     GREECE: STEPHANOVIKION-VELESTNON 
2011-04-12   1957-03-09   8.6   51.29   -175.6   ALASKA
2011-04-15   1925-11-13   7.3   13      125      PHILIPPINES: SAMAR: LAOANG; BATAG I
2011-04-17   1943-11-26   7.6   41      33.7     TURKEY: LADIK
2011-04-17   1925-11-16   7.0   18.5    -107     S. MEXICO
2011-04-19   1943-11-28   7.6   54.9    156.8    RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA
2011-04-21   1812-12-21   7.1   34.2    -119.9   CALIFORNIA: PURISIMA
2011-04-23   1998-01-04   7.5   -22.3   170.91   U:2:NEW CALEDONIA: LOYALTY ISLANDS
2011-04-24   1957-03-22   7.5   55      -165.2   ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS

I'd like to call attention to this particular prediction
PREDICTED    ORIGIN       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-09   1939-01-25   8.3   -36.2   -72.2    CHILE: CHILLAN

It follows on the 1939 Saros series in January. We had severe quakes there last year and a recent quake in Magnitude 6.8 in Chile. The moon is in the same position it was in 1939. The gravitational and tidal forces will be very similar.

news.yahoo.com/s/ap/lt_chile_earthquake

I'm working on adding a probability factor into the database query. The way it works is based on a "cluster" model. Where quakes are grouped together over a short period of time. According to this model I'd say we will probably have another large quake in Chile in the next few weeks.
#383
02/24/2011 (11:42 am)
At the urging of friends and relatives I'm posting an update. I'm not publishing predictions below magnitude 7.0. Mainly because there are too many predictions that don't happen... and secondly because this blog created a panic in Asia I don't wish to repeat.

But, I've been asked by everyone who knows of my hobby if my database predicted the New Zealand quake. It did predict one fairly close. It does fit the model. The saros series is every 18 years 11 and 1/3rd days. A lunar saros occurs when the moon is in the same relative position it was with the last eclipse.

So I'll share this little nugget with the rest of you.

According to my theory the physics of the tidal forces are at there maximum. Its not just water, its the magma underneath the crust affected by the lunar gravitational pull. The gravitational pull is not much in the grand scheme of things. But the funny thing about gravity is its always there and its always at work.



PREDICTED    ORIGIN       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-09   1988-06-03    6.2    -45.0    167.60    U:NEW ZEALAND: SOUTH ISLAND: FIORDLAND

Actual       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-02-23   6.8   -43.5    172.6      SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

The question is, "are these quakes related?" Is the 1988-06-03 quake in anyway related to the 2011-02-23 quake? You decide. As for me, there is little doubt.

Its not a perfect prediction. But its not too bad, off by two and a half weeks, 5 degrees longitude and .6 magnitude.
#384
02/24/2011 (12:20 pm)
Ah.. so it was brought to my attention that it was not clear what saros is related between 1988 and 2011. Its not an 18 year cycle. Here is the relationship. I've provided part of the query that generates my predictions.

select e_date, e_time, type, obs, saros, latitude, longitude  
from eclipse_data 
where e_year in ('1988','2011') 
and saros = 118
order by e_year, saros


And the results...

E_DATE       E_TIME      TYPE   OBS       SAROS LAT      LONGITUDE
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1988-08-27   11:05:29   LUNAR   Partial   118   11S      165W
2011-06-01   21:17:18   SOLAR   Partial   118   67.8N    46.8E

This is where my 3d game model would really help to show the lunar position. Both of these quakes preceded the 118 saros by approximately the same amount of time. The difference between the eclipse and the quakes occurrence in 1988 and 2011 was about 2 and a half weeks. The orbital path of the moon between solar and lunar eclipses is about 14.5 days or two weeks.

The saros is the same, but it flips from solar to lunar. Thats why its not a full 18 year cycle. I'll post the nasa pics to show the orbital path of the moon.

118 Saros Solar Eclipses
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEsaros118.html

118 Saros Lunar Eclipses
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEsaros/LEsaros118.html


2011 - 118 Saros Solar Eclipse
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEanimate/SEanimate2001/SE2011Jun01P.GIF

1993 - 118 Saros Solar Eclipse
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEanimate/SEanimate1951/SE1993May21P.GIF
Kinda shows you why I'm working with a 3d game engine. Its important to visualize the relationship, and to calculate the gravitational physics to see whats going on. There is no NASA animated picture of the 118 saros lunar eclipse. That is where the game engine comes in.

Looking at the moon's shadow we can imagine where it is in relation to the earth and sun for Saros 118. Its lined up on the high end of the northern hemisphere between the earth and Sun. Right now its working its way up there. Its pretty much in the same spot where it was 18 years ago in 1993. Interestingly, it was following the same orbital path, but on the opposite side of the planet in 1988.

eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCLEmap/1901-2000/LE1988-08-27P.gif
#385
02/24/2011 (4:54 pm)
So whats so special about the Chilean prediction?

PREDICTED    ORIGIN       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-09   1939-01-25   8.3   -36.2   -72.2    CHILE: CHILLAN

Its the 118 and 151 Saros connection. The 1939 8.3 magnitude Chilean quake occured between these two Saros cycles. We have a repeat this year in 2011.

E_DATE   E_TIME   TYPE   OBS   SAROS   LATITUDE   LONGITUDE
----------------------------------------------------------------
21-NOV-38   23:52:25   SOLAR   Partial   151   68.9N   162.0W
19-APR-39   16:45:53   SOLAR   Annular   118   73.1N   129.1W
04-JAN-11   08:51:42   SOLAR   Partial   151   64.7N   20.8E
01-JUN-11   21:17:18   SOLAR   Partial   118   67.8N   46.8E

The set up is the same, 151 followed by 118. The database query predicted this quake twice; once for each saros. We had horrendous quakes in the region last year, and we just had a 6.8 two weeks ago.

news.yahoo.com/s/ap/lt_chile_earthquake
Quote:
By EVA VERGARA, Associated Press Eva Vergara, Associated Press Fri Feb 11, 2011 11:49 pm ET

CAUQUENES, Chile A magnitude-6.8 earthquake struck central Chile Friday, centered in almost exactly the same spot where last year's magnitude-8.8 quake spawned a tsunami and devastated coastal communities.

I'd say they have less than two weeks before the next really big one hits.
#386
02/24/2011 (5:20 pm)
Ah, I might as well let the cat all the way out of the bag. It did not just predict it twice. And it was not just 1939. At the risk of producing some level of panic.... Here is the full Chilean prediction including the 6.0 magnitude quakes. We see that saros 118 and 151 have a repeatable and unkind treatment of Chile.

PREDICTED_DATE   ORIGIN   MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-09   1939-01-25   8.3   -36.2   -72.2    CHILE: CHILLAN
2011-03-27   1993-03-15   6.7   -26.7   -70.92   U:2:CHILE: COPIAPO
2011-03-29   1970-06-14   6.0   -52     -73.8    S. CHILE
2011-03-30   1993-03-19   6.0   -26.7   -70.97   U:2:CHILE: COPIAPO
2011-04-03   1970-06-19   6.4   -22.2   -70.55   N. CHILE
2011-04-04   1975-03-13   6.9   -29.9   -71.3    CHILE: COQUIMBO; LA SERENA
2011-04-04   1975-03-13   6.9   -29.9   -71.34   U:CHILE: CENTRAL: COQUIMBO; 
2011-05-01   1998-01-12   6.6   -30.9   -71.41   U:CHILE: PUEBLO NUEVO; COQUIMBO
2011-05-19   2006-08-25   6.6   -24.4   -67.03   U:2:U: CHILE-ARGENTINA
2011-05-20   1988-08-14   6.5   -27.2   -71.09   U:2:CHILE: COPIAPO
2011-05-20   1998-01-30   7.1   -23.9   -70.21   U:2:CHILE
2011-06-01   1975-05-10   7.7   -38.1   -73.23   CHILE: CENTRAL
2011-06-01   1975-05-10   7.8   -38.1   -73.23   U:2:CHILE: CENTRAL
2011-06-24   1962-02-14   7.3   -37.8   -72.5    CHILE: CENTRAL
2011-07-07   2006-10-12   6.4   -31.2   -71.37   U:CHILE: PUEBLO NUEVO; COQUIMBO; 
2011-07-12   1916-08-25   7.5   -21     -68      CHILE: NORTHERN
2011-07-23   1993-07-11   6.6   -25.3   -70.17   U:2:CHILE: TALTAL

Again the hesitation is a less than perfect track record of predicting quakes with this method. Also I can attest the database query predicts way more quakes than what actually occur.

All that aside (for what ever reason) there does appear to be a strong correlation between quakes in Chile and this saros cycle combination over the past 70 years. The 1993 correlation did not escape my attention and that is why I posted the 2011 eclipse and 1993 eclipse images from NASA above.
#387
02/24/2011 (6:02 pm)
Feedback is good. I was asked about a "hit ratio" how many times have we had this saros combo and how many quakes in Chile are associated. Magnitude 6 earthquakes and above are listed in the previous post.

Here is the eclipse saros series for 118 and 151 since 1916:

ECLIPSE_DATE   E_TIME   TYPE   OBS   SAROS   LATITUDE   LONGITUDE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1916-07-15   04:46:07   LUNAR   Partial   118   22S     70W
1920-11-10   15:52:15   SOLAR   Partial   151   69.9N   29.8W
1921-04-08   09:15:01   SOLAR   Annular   118   64.5N   5.6E
1934-07-26   12:15:38   LUNAR   Partial   118   20S     178E
1938-11-21   23:52:25   SOLAR   Partial   151   68.9N   162.0W
1939-04-19   16:45:53   SOLAR   Annular   118   73.1N   129.1W
1952-08-05   19:47:55   LUNAR   Partial   118   18S     65E
1956-12-02   08:00:35   SOLAR   Partial   151   67.9N   64.6E
1957-04-30   00:05:28   SOLAR   A+        118   70.6N   40.3E
1970-08-17   03:24:06   LUNAR   Partial   118   14S     49W
1974-12-13   16:13:13   SOLAR   Partial   151   66.8N   69.4W
1975-05-11   07:17:33   SOLAR   Partial   118   69.7N   80.2W
1988-08-27   11:05:29   LUNAR   Partial   118   11S     165W
1992-12-24   00:31:41   SOLAR   Partial   151   65.7N   155.7E
1993-05-21   14:20:15   SOLAR   Partial   118   68.8N   162.3E
2006-09-07   18:52:25   LUNAR   Partial   118   7S      77E
2011-01-04   08:51:42   SOLAR   Partial   151   64.7N   20.8E
2011-06-01   21:17:18   SOLAR   Partial   118   67.8N   46.8E

According to my database, the following eclipse series did not have a correlation with an earthquake above 6.0 in Chile.
...
1920-11-10   15:52:15   SOLAR   Partial   151   69.9N   29.8W
1921-04-08   09:15:01   SOLAR   Annular   118   64.5N   5.6E
1934-07-26   12:15:38   LUNAR   Partial   118   20S     178E
...
1952-08-05   19:47:55   LUNAR   Partial   118   18S     65E
1956-12-02   08:00:35   SOLAR   Partial   151   67.9N   64.6E
1957-04-30   00:05:28   SOLAR   A+        118   70.6N   40.3E
...

The rest did. And this is including the 6.8 in Chile we just had.
So that's a hit of 11/17 occurrences or a correlation of about 64%.

Here is the full set of Saros series that we are currently experiencing. This is what drives my predictions:

ECLIPSE_DATE   E_TIME   TYPE   OBS   SAROS   LATITUDE   LONGITUDE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
2010-12-21   08:18:04   LUNAR   Total     125   24N     125W
2011-01-04   08:51:42   SOLAR   Partial   151   64.7N   20.8E
2011-06-01   21:17:18   SOLAR   Partial   118   67.8N   46.8E
2011-06-15   20:13:43   LUNAR   Total     130   23S     57E
2011-07-01   08:39:30   SOLAR   Pb        156   65.2S   28.6E
#388
03/08/2011 (8:24 pm)
PREDICTED    ORIGIN       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-08   1916-04-21   7.8   33      141      JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU

www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/08/japan.quake/index.html?hpt=Sbin

Yeah I predicted it on February 10th 2011. I nailed it. Right here in this blog.

Quote:
(CNN) -- A tsunami advisory has been issued in Japan after a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Japan's main island of Honshu, the Japan Meteorological Agency said Wednesday.

The quake was centered 169 kilometers (105 miles) off the east coast of Honshu, directly east of the city of Sendai, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

The quake occurred about 8.8 miles below the earth's surface, the USGS said. The expected height of the tsunami was only expected to be 0.5 meters (19.6 inches).

CNN correspondent Kyung Lah said she could feel the earthquake in Tokyo, 267 miles southwest of the quake's epicenter, and said the shaking lasted as long as three minutes, but that there was no significant damage.

TV Asahi showed video of boats rocking back and forth, as well as images taken from shaken city cams as the earthquake hit.

Lets here it for the game developer who predicts earthquakes.

Magnitude 7.2
Date-Time

* Wednesday, March 09, 2011 at 02:45:18 UTC
* Wednesday, March 09, 2011 at 11:45:18 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 38.510N, 142.792E
Depth 14.1 km (8.8 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 168 km (104 miles) E of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
193 km (119 miles) SE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
216 km (134 miles) E of Yamagata, Honshu, Japan
413 km (256 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan


Its close to the predicted mark, the longitude is off. I have to calculate to see what the degrees equate to that far north to calculate the exact distance.
#389
03/10/2011 (8:48 am)
You created a panic in Asia? Really? Why? Because the NZ quake? Who contacted you that you scared them? This is great information and people should take heed.

Congratulations on getting the Japanese quake a few days ago.

Have you started your own website yet? Would be nice to have your contact information also.

I believe Chile will be hit again this year, not enough pressure was released last year, but hopefully if it does happen this time it will not be that great and will not cause any damage!

Good job!!!
#390
03/10/2011 (11:18 pm)
New 8.9 in Japan just about an hour ago. Sendai area eastern ocean.
#391
03/11/2011 (2:23 am)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12709598
#392
03/11/2011 (8:31 am)
Had a freaky dream last night about a large earthquake in Japan since I will be traveling there very soon. When I woke up this morning saw the news on TV Japan about the earthquake. Interesting thing I came across your blog here old friend. Been in one earthquake in Japan back in 2005. Will have to change some plans to go to other parts of Japan since I was planning to go to Sendai and parts of Hokkaido.
#393
03/11/2011 (10:15 am)
@WJ MCgee, Egad, its my old buddy Bill. How the heck did you find this blog? BTW I've been holding back on my latest Tokai Quake predictions. Two big cycles will most likely hit late 2012, early 2013 and if not then by 2016. After that Japan should be good for more than 100 years, and by good I mean no moke magnitude 8.8+ Tokai quake. I mean look at the one we just had it was offshore, the tokai quake is next and it will be on land.

The cool thing is I've isolated another variable in this blog. Honestly I think in the next decade we will be able to accurately predict earthquakes better than the weather. Its a cycle like clock work, based on the lunar position, and this other variable. Holding back a bit until I get it right.

PREDICTED    ORIGIN       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-08   1916-04-21   7.8   33      141      JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU

www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/08/japan.quake/index.html?hpt=Sbin

Yeah I predicted it on February 10th 2011. I nailed it. Right here in this blog.

Lets here it for the game developer who predicts earthquakes.

(1)Magnitude 7.2
Date-Time

* Wednesday, March 09, 2011 at 02:45:18 UTC

Location 38.510N, 142.792E
Depth 14.1 km (8.8 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 168 km (104 miles) E of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
193 km (119 miles) SE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
216 km (134 miles) E of Yamagata, Honshu, Japan
413 km (256 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan

-----------------------

(2)Magnitude 8.9
Date-Time

* Friday, March 11, 2011 at 05:46:23 UTC
* Friday, March 11, 2011 at 02:46:23 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 38.322N, 142.369E
Depth 24.4 km (15.2 miles) set by location program
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 130 km (80 miles) E of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
178 km (110 miles) E of Yamagata, Honshu, Japan
178 km (110 miles) ENE of Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
373 km (231 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan



As you can see these quakes are clearly related. And yes they are caused by the same forces.
#394
03/11/2011 (10:38 am)
The problem with my current quake database algorithm is that it over predicts. I just need to refine my prediction list. Here is the Feb 10th prediction list again.

PREDICTED    ORIGIN       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-05   1916-04-18   7.5   53.3    -170     ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS
2011-03-08   1916-04-21   7.8   33      141      JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
2011-03-09   1939-01-25   8.3   -36.2   -72.2    CHILE: CHILLAN
2011-03-11   1916-04-24   7.2   18.5    -68      DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: SANTO DOMINIGO
2011-03-12   1609-10-20   8.6   -11.9   -77.4    PERU
2011-03-13   1916-04-26   7.3   9.33    -82.55   PANAMA: BOCAS DEL TORO
2011-03-14   1939-01-30   7.8   -6.5    155.5    PAPUA NEW GUINEA: BOUGAINVILLE ISLAND
2011-03-16   1970-05-31   7.9   -9.2    -78.8    PERU
2011-03-17   1993-03-06   7.1   -10.9   164.18   CORAL SEA, AUSTRALIA  
2011-03-24   1988-06-18   7.0   26.86   -111.0   MEXICO, GULF OF CALIFORNIA
2011-03-24   1997-12-05   7.8   54.84   162.04   U:2:RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
2011-03-24   1997-12-05   7.8   54.84   162.03   RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA: UST-KAMCHATSK 
2011-03-27   1970-06-11   7.6   -59.1   157.8    AUSTRALIA: MACQUARIE ISLAND
2011-03-27   1979-11-27   7.1   33.96   59.726   IRAN
2011-03-27   1943-11-06   7.6   -6      134.3    INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA
2011-03-30   1921-02-04   7.5   15      -91      MEXICO-GUATEMALA
2011-04-10   1979-12-12   7.7   1.598   -79.35   COLOMBIA: OFF SHORE; PACIFIC OCEAN
2011-04-10   2006-07-17   7.7   -9.25   107.41   JAVA; INDONESIA
2011-04-10   1997-12-22   7.2   -5.49   147.87   PAPUA NEW GUINEA; SOLOMON SEA
2011-04-10   1957-03-08   7.0   39.4    22.8     GREECE: STEPHANOVIKION-VELESTNON 
2011-04-12   1957-03-09   8.6   51.29   -175.6   ALASKA
2011-04-15   1925-11-13   7.3   13      125      PHILIPPINES: SAMAR: LAOANG; BATAG I
2011-04-17   1943-11-26   7.6   41      33.7     TURKEY: LADIK
2011-04-17   1925-11-16   7.0   18.5    -107     S. MEXICO
2011-04-19   1943-11-28   7.6   54.9    156.8    RUSSIA: KAMCHATKA
2011-04-21   1812-12-21   7.1   34.2    -119.9   CALIFORNIA: PURISIMA
2011-04-23   1998-01-04   7.5   -22.3   170.91   U:2:NEW CALEDONIA: LOYALTY ISLANDS
2011-04-24   1957-03-22   7.5   55      -165.2   ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS

Not all of these will be accurate predictions that have quakes. Based on the recent quakes I'd bet the Kamchatka and Australia quakes are most likely. I'd still say Chile and Peru are very likely too.

Because of this over prediction I limit my activities to this one blog. I hate to stay quiet and let people suffer like what is happening in Japan now. But at the same time I'd hate to scare people when nothing will happen. I've just got to keep refining the method until I get it right. Honestly, I do believe that Japan will be devastated by a major land based quake (the next Tokai quake) either in late 2012 / early 2013 or in 2016. Thats the next saros for the Tokai quake.

This magnitude 8.9 is a repeat of very similar lunar gravitation forces we saw with the 7.8 magnitude quake in Honshu bay on April 21st 1916.

c.statcounter.com/4923359/0/b7ce2823/0/View Stats

#395
03/11/2011 (12:39 pm)
Well Britton so happens I was searching for Earthquake predictions with Google and I ran across your blog. My mother and I have been traveling to Japan annually for some time to visit family and friends. Fortunately everyone I know are in areas that are not affected. My heart and prayers go out to those who lost loved ones and their homes. I certainly hope that predictions will become more accurate to help save lives. Keep up the work!
#396
03/11/2011 (7:40 pm)
@Bill, since you are my buddy I'll tell you this much, Japan is simply not a good place to be through this summer. We have not seen the end of the quakes there. I've been watching quakes closely for the past two years. They come in clusters and the next 2 months will be bad for Japan. Maybe not 8.9's but lost of 6 and 7 magnitudes. The media is flocking in there. I'd expect some media deaths in the next few weeks.

I'll post more, but look at the quakes in my list, buddy. The north eastern part of Japan is in for a rough ride over the next few weeks. I was chuckling at the experts on CNN news tonight because the theory that the moons gravitation pull is causing quakes is catching on. The experts dismissed the theory. But, they still have not figured out its not the syzygy or the perigee that correlates the data. Don't get me wrong there is plenty of data to support the syzgy and perigee theory. But, its the saros cycle that has the strongest correlation. That shows the exact location of the moon relative to the sun and earth when the last major quakes happened.

If my lunar saros earthquake theory is correct then the 1916 data is a good place to look for the next quake and that puts the dominican republic and hati back on the map for more problems. I'd bet money I'm right. Everyone will be asking is this all related? And the answer is yes, its a repeatable cycle, but one only obvious if you are running database queries against a large data set like I am doing now.

PREDICTED    ORIGIN       MAG   LAT     LONG     REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-05   1916-04-18   7.5   53.3    -170     ALASKA: ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: FOX ISLANDS
2011-03-08   1916-04-21   7.8   33      141      JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
2011-03-11   1916-04-24   7.2   18.5    -68      DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: SANTO DOMINIGO
2011-03-13   1916-04-26   7.3   9.33    -82.55   PANAMA: BOCAS DEL TORO

Its a flip like the 1988 saros cycle that hit new zealand.

ECLIPSE_DATE   E_TIME   TYPE   OBS   SAROS   LATITUDE   LONGITUDE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1916-07-15   04:46:07   LUNAR   Partial   118   22S     70W
1988-08-27   11:05:29   LUNAR   Partial   118   11S     165W
2011-06-01   21:17:18   SOLAR   Partial   118   67.8N   46.8E


So if you look at the lunar saros 118 and the quake data in 1916 then Alaska, Japan, Panama and the Dominican Republic all have something in common.
#397
03/11/2011 (10:46 pm)
Thanks for the info Britt. Very interesting indeed. First time I ever went to Japan it was in the summer and sure enough five minutes after getting to the hotel a 6.0 hit the Chiba area. I stopped going in the summer because of the extreme humidity. I have already made new plans but I will still be going to Japan in two weeks (Kyushu and Kansai areas). Hopefully Fujiyama won't be affected by that strong quake. You know that the moon will be at the closest point to the earth in 18 years on March 19th?
#398
03/12/2011 (7:13 am)
@Bill, the south west part of Japan will be safer. You can see the tectonic plate affected in the picture below (purple line). That plate will be unstable for at least 2 months.

i.huffpost.com/gen/255960/JAPAN-QUAKE.jpg
Quote:You know that the moon will be at the closest point to the earth in 18 years on March 19th?

Yeah 18 years 11 and 1/3rd days to be exact. That is called a lunar saros cycle. Its not just as close to earth as it was, it will be in nearly the exact same orbital position it was in 1993. The summer eclipse will be the same as it was in 1993 also. That is what drives these quake predictions. I look at the quakes 18 years ago with the same saros cycle. No one else does.

I also look at all quakes as far back as we have data that match the lunar saros cycles of the current year. That's how I made the Japan quake prediction. The same lunar saros cycle existed in 1916. The moon was on the opposite side of the earth then and gave us a lunar eclipse, this year its giving us a solar eclipse.

I loaded the eclipse data from NASA, and the quake data from the USGS and the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and put it in an Oracle Database.

I think there is something to this, but I have to refine the algorithm a bit. At some point I should have a 3d game based simulator. Just never seem to get the time to finish it out. I have a real day job, two kids and all.
#399
03/15/2011 (9:21 am)
Frankly, I feel you should post away as much as you want. If someone feels scared and worried after looking at your list then they simply shouldn't be looking at now should they. Post em all!

About your March-April predictions.. I am surprised actually not to see even more Japanese quakes on there. Very surprised.. Some have reported that this may not be the main shock, though I think it was because there was a foreshock already, although I do expect probably an 8 aftershock in the next week or so.

Let all the cats out of the bag please! :-)
#400
03/15/2011 (1:42 pm)
Hi Britton, I have been following your blog on and off for a year. The long awaited Tokai earthquake didn't happen this time.

I believe all 6 nuclear reactors have meltdown but being cover up for now. This nuclear disaster will affect many countries including the west coast of USA. Who is going to buy Japanese products in the coming weeks.

The full moon on 19th March will increase the seismic activities. Anymore big ones of 7 and above for the next 2 weeks?? Looking forward to read your April predictions.