Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 598 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
The next Tokai Quake in Japan will most likely take place on July 08 2012. The prediction was made on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. The prediction is based on equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series and the related extreme tidal pressure on subducted tectonic plates. We do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan on May 20 2012. However it is the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 and its saros series 140 that is predicted to trigger the earthquake.
NASA Solar Eclipse Images May 2012
Below are the results of the database query. We looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. We found the following historic earthquakes, looked at the quake cycle and calculated the prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the historic eclipse to predict the next earthquake.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
It is possible that calculating the build up of force between the plates and taking account of the tidal pressures from the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
The tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year.
Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan's shore.
The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? Based on previous the previous track record in this blog it is about a 20% chance. However we firmly believe we have an 80% chance of a 6.0 or greater on or about July 8th in the region. The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
View Stats
The next Tokai Quake in Japan will most likely take place on July 08 2012. The prediction was made on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. The prediction is based on equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series and the related extreme tidal pressure on subducted tectonic plates. We do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan on May 20 2012. However it is the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 and its saros series 140 that is predicted to trigger the earthquake.
NASA Solar Eclipse Images May 2012
Below are the results of the database query. We looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. We found the following historic earthquakes, looked at the quake cycle and calculated the prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the historic eclipse to predict the next earthquake.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
It is possible that calculating the build up of force between the plates and taking account of the tidal pressures from the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
The tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year.
Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan's shore.
The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? Based on previous the previous track record in this blog it is about a 20% chance. However we firmly believe we have an 80% chance of a 6.0 or greater on or about July 8th in the region. The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
"Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
#342
09/03/2010 (8:34 pm)
Raw dump of the next few weeks worth of predictions.SOURCE DATE MAG_RANGE WMO LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USGS 2010-09-04 5.0 - 6.3 5117 -15.8 -179.4 FIJI USGS 2010-09-04 5.0 - 6.2 1414 41.98 140.66 U:2:JAPAN: UCHIURA BAY NGDC 2010-09-04 5.0 - 7.9 7514 58.67 -142.7 ALASKA: YAKUTAT USGS 2010-09-04 5.0 - 7.9 7514 58.68 -142.7 U:ALASKA: YAKUTAT USGS 2010-09-05 5.0 - 6.1 5502 -56.6 -26.55 USGS 2010-09-05 5.0 - 6.3 5117 -15.8 -179.4 USGS 2010-09-05 5.0 - 6.6 3015 -6.58 152.22 NGDC 2010-09-06 5.0 - 6.5 1307 36.35 71.093 AFGHANISTAN: TILI; JALALABAD; BADAKHSHAN NGDC 2010-09-06 5.0 - 8.2 1009 2.1 94.6 INDONESIA: OFF NW COAST SUMATERA USGS 2010-09-06 5.0 - 6.7 5117 -15.2 -178.5 U:2:FIJI ISLANDS USGS 2010-09-06 5.0 - 6.5 1307 36.36 71.090 U:2:AFGHANISTAN NGDC 2010-09-08 5.0 - 7.1 5307 -38.5 -73.40 CHILE: LA UNION; VALDIVIA NGDC 2010-09-08 5.0 - 7.3 1516 57.70 163.60 RUSSIA: OFF KAMCHATKA USGS 2010-09-08 5.0 - 6.0 3117 -18.9 175.95 USGS 2010-09-08 5.0 - 6.8 3216 -20.4 169.29 U:2:U: VANUATU ISLANDS USGS 2010-09-08 5.0 - 6.5 7110 18.68 -101.6 USGS 2010-09-08 5.0 - 7.1 5307 -38.4 -73.43 U:2:CHILE: CENTRAL USGS 2010-09-09 5.0 - 6.1 1112 18.92 121.34 U:PHILIPPINES: LUZON: LAOAG NGDC 2010-09-09 5.0 - 8.4 1313 33.00 135.00 JAPAN: NANKAIDO NGDC 2010-09-09 5.0 - 7.1 5307 -38.5 -73.40 CHILE: USGS 2010-09-09 5.0 - 6.9 5001 -0.96 -13.56 USGS 2010-09-09 5.0 - 7.1 5307 -38.4 -73.43 U:2:CHILE: CENTRAL USGS 2010-09-10 5.0 - 6.3 1114 19.00 145.34 USGS 2010-09-10 5.0 - 6.3 1313 33.19 137.98 USGS 2010-09-11 5.0 - 6.4 5117 -17.9 -178.7 USGS 2010-09-11 5.0 - 6.7 3116 -13.5 167.45 U:2:U: VANUATU ISLANDS USGS 2010-09-12 5.0 - 6.5 5206 -22.8 -69.12 U:2:CHILE USGS 2010-09-12 5.0 - 7.1 3317 -32.1 179.79 NGDC 2010-09-13 5.0 - 7.2 7108 11.74 -87.34 NICARAGUA: MASACHAPA; COSTA RICA NGDC 2010-09-13 5.0 - 7.5 1309 31.10 91.4 CHINA: TIBET (XIZANG PROVINCE) USGS 2010-09-13 5.0 - 6.7 3011 -6.05 112.14 U:2:INDONESIA: JAVA USGS 2010-09-13 5.0 - 6.1 1114 12.23 140.99 USGS 2010-09-13 5.0 - 6.1 5513 -54.9 -136.1 USGS 2010-09-13 5.0 - 6.2 5301 -35.6 -16.24 USGS 2010-09-13 5.0 - 6.4 5117 -15.2 -173.3 U:2:U: SAMOA ISLANDS USGS 2010-09-14 5.0 - 6.0 7108 11.30 -86.72 USGS 2010-09-14 5.0 - 6.0 5217 -22.1 -174.8 USGS 2010-09-14 5.0 - 6.3 3012 -0.07 124.67 NGDC 2010-09-15 5.0 - 6.5 1313 33.80 138.80 JAPAN: IZU PENINSULA NGDC 2010-09-15 5.0 - 7.0 1211 23.50 117.20 CHINA: GUANGDONG PROVINCE USGS 2010-09-15 5.0 - 6.0 7008 6.640 -82.75 USGS 2010-09-15 5.0 - 6.3 1214 29.69 140.02 USGS 2010-09-16 5.0 - 6.0 1214 24.13 142.40 USGS 2010-09-16 5.0 - 6.1 1012 0.680 126.00 U:INDONESIA: MOLUCCA ISLANDS: N USGS 2010-09-16 5.0 - 6.1 1407 49.99 78.840 USGS 2010-09-16 5.0 - 6.3 5513 -54.7 -135.8 USGS 2010-09-16 5.0 - 6.5 5310 -35.9 -102.5 USGS 2010-09-17 5.0 - 6.0 7108 12.00 -87.32 U:2:NICARAGUA: PUERTO SAMOZA USGS 2010-09-17 5.0 - 6.1 5007 -1.39 -77.52 U:2:U: ECUADOR USGS 2010-09-17 5.0 - 6.5 7515 56.65 -156.7 NGDC 2010-09-18 5.0 - 7.8 1314 39.00 142.50 JAPAN: NEAR E COAST HONSHU USGS 2010-09-19 5.0 - 6.1 1214 23.43 142.91 USGS 2010-09-19 5.0 - 6.5 1705 73.37 55.090 USGS 2010-09-19 5.0 - 6.2 5107 -15.2 -70.09 U:2:PERU NGDC 2010-09-20 5.0 - 7.5 1212 22.90 121.50 TAIWAN USGS 2010-09-20 5.0 - 6.1 5502 -57.7 -25.47 USGS 2010-09-20 5.0 - 6.4 1314 35.36 140.21 U:2:JAPAN USGS 2010-09-20 5.0 - 6.5 1705 73.37 55.090 USGS 2010-09-21 5.0 - 6.0 5217 -22.5 -174.9 U:TONGA ISLANDS USGS 2010-09-21 5.0 - 6.1 1700 76.21 7.29 NGDC 2010-09-22 5.0 - 6.2 1401 42.25 18.752 BALKANS NW: MACEDONIA: DEBAR USGS 2010-09-22 5.0 - 6.4 3002 -6.09 26.650 U:CONGO: KABALO USGS 2010-09-22 5.0 - 6.3 1401 42.26 18.750 U:BALKANS NW: MACEDONIA: DEBAR USGS 2010-09-23 5.0 - 6.2 7516 52.61 -167.0 USGS 2010-09-24 5.0 - 6.1 7008 7.530 -82.27 U:2:PANAMA USGS 2010-09-26 5.0 - 7.4 5602 -60.9 -21.61 U:2:ANTARCTICA
#343
seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2010581663_quaketides24.html
I predict some big quakes in the next 3 weeks. Interesting that EQSA is predicting quakes in Alaska and Japan tomorrow.
09/03/2010 (10:43 pm)
I've always believed that there is more than just the surface tides to worry about. This article confirms what Faulb and Alfred Wegener said about the potential for tides below the earth surface.seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2010581663_quaketides24.html
Quote:
WALNUT CREEK, Calif. — Rumbles deep underground are caused by water being controlled by the sun and moon, University of California, Berkeley, seismologists concluded in a new study that could lead to a better understanding of earthquakes.
The study of a portion of the San Andreas fault revealed that underground fluids move like the tides, the scientists wrote in an article published Wednesday in the journal Nature.
Geologists had long wondered what caused the frequent rumbling 15 miles below the surface, said co-author Roland Burgmann, a Berkeley professor of earth and planetary science.
"People had looked for those kinds of relationships for decades," said Burgmann, who wrote the paper with seismologist Robert Nadeau and doctoral student Amanda Thomas. "Now, with these tremors, there's a very strong relationship."
Highly pressurized water essentially lubricates certain faults, including the San Andreas in California, far below the portion of the fault that causes measurable earthquakes, scientists found.
The relationship between the deep tremors and earthquakes remains unclear, Nadeau said.
Though scientists noted that a major 2002 Alaska earthquake set off deep tremors on other parts of the planet, it was not previously known the sun and moon could have a similar effect, said Kenneth Creager, a professor of earth sciences at the University of Washington.
"Seeing that (underground water) is sensitive to even smaller stresses is significant," he said
I predict some big quakes in the next 3 weeks. Interesting that EQSA is predicting quakes in Alaska and Japan tomorrow.
#344
Well at least the more quakes that happen you can troubleshoot the program as much as possible.
It gets more and more interesting.
09/06/2010 (2:12 am)
That's a long list, thought september is notably active in some years. I also noticed you changed your predictions starting at 5 to above.Well at least the more quakes that happen you can troubleshoot the program as much as possible.
It gets more and more interesting.
#345
I've also noticed the time of year does have a significant correlation with earthquakes. For example, one interesting statistic is that the month of November has the highest number of significant earthquakes. November has twice as many quakes as February and April for magnitude 7 earthquakes. Why? I believe that it correlates with the earth's perhelion. It is here (after the ascending node) when the earth begins its journey to its closest approach in orbit to the sun.
You will notice that September is really not a good month to predict a 7.0. Yet another reason I lowered the magnitude.
www.windows2universe.org/physical_science/physics/mechanics/orbit/perihelion_aph...
The earth reaches perihelion in January, but I believe that the greatest forces pulling the earth toward the sun are felt in November. Physics tells us the earth wishes to continue in a straight line, it is here when the suns gravitation pull has its greatest fight against the earths forward momentum. The earth begins enters rapid orbital acceleration in October / November.
So if my theory holds true, then my algorithm for predicting quakes will be more accurate shortly before and after the eclipse. I have to lower the magnitude to improve accuracy in the following months. However November should be a pretty good month for my predictions.
09/06/2010 (4:47 pm)
Seneq, I've noticed the correlation between solar eclipse and the tidal forces weaken over time. The prediction method for the fall does not hold well for a summer eclipse. I've also noticed the time of year does have a significant correlation with earthquakes. For example, one interesting statistic is that the month of November has the highest number of significant earthquakes. November has twice as many quakes as February and April for magnitude 7 earthquakes. Why? I believe that it correlates with the earth's perhelion. It is here (after the ascending node) when the earth begins its journey to its closest approach in orbit to the sun.
select count(*), q_month from quake_data where magnitude >= 7 and source = 'USGS' and q_year > 1973 group by q_month order by count(*) desc
COUNT QUAKE MONTH --------------------- 60 11 52 10 47 07 46 08 45 01 41 05 40 06 37 12 37 03 34 04 33 09 31 02
You will notice that September is really not a good month to predict a 7.0. Yet another reason I lowered the magnitude.
www.windows2universe.org/physical_science/physics/mechanics/orbit/perihelion_aph...
The earth reaches perihelion in January, but I believe that the greatest forces pulling the earth toward the sun are felt in November. Physics tells us the earth wishes to continue in a straight line, it is here when the suns gravitation pull has its greatest fight against the earths forward momentum. The earth begins enters rapid orbital acceleration in October / November.
So if my theory holds true, then my algorithm for predicting quakes will be more accurate shortly before and after the eclipse. I have to lower the magnitude to improve accuracy in the following months. However November should be a pretty good month for my predictions.
#346
I always thought that December and March seemed busier.. It seems like each seasonal change also brings about more quakes.
09/07/2010 (5:39 pm)
Well you got the first one on the list exactly! Just four days late, but same area. Great job!I always thought that December and March seemed busier.. It seems like each seasonal change also brings about more quakes.
#347
Magnitude 6.2
Date-Time
* Tuesday, September 07, 2010 at 16:13:33 UTC
* Wednesday, September 08, 2010 at 04:13:33 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 15.917°S, 179.365°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region FIJI REGION
Distances 145 km (90 miles) ENE of Lambasa, Vanua Levu, Fiji
220 km (135 miles) SW of Sigave, Ile Futuna, Wallis and Futuna
340 km (210 miles) NE of SUVA, Viti Levu, Fiji
2385 km (1490 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand
Just look at the lat long... not bad eh?
Predicted -15.8 -179.4, Actual 15.917°S, 179.365°W
Bingo. Johnny on it.
Every quake has a history, this one in Fiji is based on the Magnitude 6.3 August 13th earthquake in 1974.
Quite frankly the New Zealand quake scares me. It does not correspond to historical quakes. I think something new is happening in New Zealand. New in this case means Bad. Its almost like a huge shift in the techtonic plate is about to happen. Its not on the database list, but between now and January 2011 I would not be surprised to see a magnitude 8 or 9 in Newzealand. Last year we had a huge quake in new Zealand shortly before the total solar eclipse.
09/07/2010 (6:11 pm)
Seneq, yep. Normally I filter the list so I'm only dealing with countries that border the ocean. This time I tossed out the raw data, did not have time to filter. Japan and Taiwan are due for a magnitude 6+ quake in my opinion.SOURCE Predicted MAG_RANGE WMO LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USGS 2010-09-04 5.0 - 6.3 5117 -15.8 -179.4 FIJI
Magnitude 6.2
Date-Time
* Tuesday, September 07, 2010 at 16:13:33 UTC
* Wednesday, September 08, 2010 at 04:13:33 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 15.917°S, 179.365°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region FIJI REGION
Distances 145 km (90 miles) ENE of Lambasa, Vanua Levu, Fiji
220 km (135 miles) SW of Sigave, Ile Futuna, Wallis and Futuna
340 km (210 miles) NE of SUVA, Viti Levu, Fiji
2385 km (1490 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand
Just look at the lat long... not bad eh?
Predicted -15.8 -179.4, Actual 15.917°S, 179.365°W
Bingo. Johnny on it.
Every quake has a history, this one in Fiji is based on the Magnitude 6.3 August 13th earthquake in 1974.
Quite frankly the New Zealand quake scares me. It does not correspond to historical quakes. I think something new is happening in New Zealand. New in this case means Bad. Its almost like a huge shift in the techtonic plate is about to happen. Its not on the database list, but between now and January 2011 I would not be surprised to see a magnitude 8 or 9 in Newzealand. Last year we had a huge quake in new Zealand shortly before the total solar eclipse.
#348
Indeed all quakes have a history.
I am not familar with the quakes around NZ, but in recent memory this si the first major quake in quite sometime. So you think this was a foreshock of some kind? A major shift in plates in that area could happen, but most quakes in that area happen around Tonga and Vanuatu and the smaller islands. Time will tell.
As far as Taiwan and Japan, I believe Japan will be hit soon, but every year they get a bunch. And Taiwan hasn't had a 6 this year yet I think, so it's due.
09/09/2010 (8:24 am)
Yes, I saw that the lat and long were almost exact. Excellent.Indeed all quakes have a history.
I am not familar with the quakes around NZ, but in recent memory this si the first major quake in quite sometime. So you think this was a foreshock of some kind? A major shift in plates in that area could happen, but most quakes in that area happen around Tonga and Vanuatu and the smaller islands. Time will tell.
As far as Taiwan and Japan, I believe Japan will be hit soon, but every year they get a bunch. And Taiwan hasn't had a 6 this year yet I think, so it's due.
#349
The new zealand quake indicates something new is happening to the fault line that has not happened before. Same with Hati. There are not that many recorded quakes of that magnitude. I think the plate is moving or the fault line is deepening in a way that has not been seen in recorded history.
The data corresponds to this article.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1309194/New-Zealand-earthquake-moves-...
Earth's surface 'lurches 11ft to the right' as New Zealand earthquake rips new fault line. The earthquake that devastated a city in New Zealand tore open a new 11ft faultine in the Earth’s surface.
Read more: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1309194/New-Zealand-earthquake-moves-...
I think it is as you say a fore shock for a really big quake, if not in the next 90 days then in the next year. And its not the only one, the whole crust of the earth is rupturing in a way we have not seen before. It is going to be a mess in New Zealand for several years to come, this is just the beginning. The tidal forces are at extremely high today and yesterday for the year. They will also be high on September 23rd with the Full moon syzygy and Autumnal equinox. I really expect more activity in New Zealand in the next two weeks, even though its not in the database prediction.
The reason I came to this conclusion was that both Hati and New Zealand could not be predicted with my database query. There was no way it could have been predicted based on past quakes. The conclusion therefore is this must be something new.
Contrast new Zealand and Hati with Chile. The quakes in Chile were predictable based on past quakes with similar tidal forces.
As far as Japan and Taiwan are concerned, I totally agree. Just looking at the yearly statistics alone tells you that Tawian and Japan should have had a quake by now.
-----------
The really cool thing about the lunar tidal eclipse theory is that some scientists are taking this phenomenon seriously. They are finding a correlation between tides and lunar forces. So after finding these articles, I realize I'm not crazy after all. I'm probably on the right track for making earthquake predictions in the future.
www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/51459/title/Tides_in_Earths_crust_trigger_sm...
When I look for anything related to lunar perigee, syzgy or eclipses I find little scientific data. Now that I am searching for tidal forces related to earthquakes I'm starting to find studies over the past 6 years or so.
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/10/1022_041022_earthquakes_tides.html
09/09/2010 (3:55 pm)
Seneq, The new zealand quake indicates something new is happening to the fault line that has not happened before. Same with Hati. There are not that many recorded quakes of that magnitude. I think the plate is moving or the fault line is deepening in a way that has not been seen in recorded history.
The data corresponds to this article.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1309194/New-Zealand-earthquake-moves-...
Earth's surface 'lurches 11ft to the right' as New Zealand earthquake rips new fault line. The earthquake that devastated a city in New Zealand tore open a new 11ft faultine in the Earth’s surface.
Read more: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1309194/New-Zealand-earthquake-moves-...
I think it is as you say a fore shock for a really big quake, if not in the next 90 days then in the next year. And its not the only one, the whole crust of the earth is rupturing in a way we have not seen before. It is going to be a mess in New Zealand for several years to come, this is just the beginning. The tidal forces are at extremely high today and yesterday for the year. They will also be high on September 23rd with the Full moon syzygy and Autumnal equinox. I really expect more activity in New Zealand in the next two weeks, even though its not in the database prediction.
The reason I came to this conclusion was that both Hati and New Zealand could not be predicted with my database query. There was no way it could have been predicted based on past quakes. The conclusion therefore is this must be something new.
Contrast new Zealand and Hati with Chile. The quakes in Chile were predictable based on past quakes with similar tidal forces.
As far as Japan and Taiwan are concerned, I totally agree. Just looking at the yearly statistics alone tells you that Tawian and Japan should have had a quake by now.
-----------
The really cool thing about the lunar tidal eclipse theory is that some scientists are taking this phenomenon seriously. They are finding a correlation between tides and lunar forces. So after finding these articles, I realize I'm not crazy after all. I'm probably on the right track for making earthquake predictions in the future.
www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/51459/title/Tides_in_Earths_crust_trigger_sm...
Quote:Tides in Earth's crust trigger small, deep quakes Study of one portion of the San Andreas fault finds that just a little added stress makes a quake more likely.
When I look for anything related to lunar perigee, syzgy or eclipses I find little scientific data. Now that I am searching for tidal forces related to earthquakes I'm starting to find studies over the past 6 years or so.
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/10/1022_041022_earthquakes_tides.html
Quote:
Are Earthquakes Encouraged by High Tides?
A new study (2004) reveals that very high tides might indeed be linked with seismic activity along coasts. Cochran and colleagues focused on the magnitude of high tides that they found to be associated with earthquakes. They determined that very high tides, rather than a normal tide cycle, seemed to coincide with seismic activity.
"For each [earthquake] event, we calculated the tides around the time of the occurrence. We calculated the stress [produced by tides] on the fault, and we're basically seeing a very good correlation," said Cochran, who is with UCLA's Department of Earth and Space Sciences. "We see more events occurring when tidal stress is high—as long as the amplitude of that stress is large enough."
#350
ofu.co.nz/graph/tides.php
09/10/2010 (9:45 pm)
Tides peak between today and the 14th in New Zealand.ofu.co.nz/graph/tides.php
#351
Some activity in Taiwan recently, lots of 4's the last few days. And today had an eartone, I expect a 5 or above sometime before the end of this month.
09/12/2010 (4:25 pm)
I cannot read the chart very well, something wasn't loading right, I will go back and check.Some activity in Taiwan recently, lots of 4's the last few days. And today had an eartone, I expect a 5 or above sometime before the end of this month.
#352
Actual:
Magnitude 5.8
Date-Time
* Monday, September 13, 2010 at 05:47:49 UTC
Location 41.523°N, 142.037°E
Depth 59.5 km (37.0 miles)
Region HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
Again look at the accuracy of the latitude longitude and magnitude. This one is right on.
Predicted: 41.98, 140.66
Actual: 41.52, 142.00
News Story Here:
www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_578006.html
And Another...
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time
* Monday, September 13, 2010 at 23:05:19 UTC
Location 32.131°N, 141.599°E
Depth 40.5 km (25.2 miles)
Region IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
Distances 200 km (125 miles) ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan
410 km (255 miles) SSE of Yokohama, Honshu, Japan
This time though the match is pretty week the Latitude is off by 6.8 degrees for the frist one... drat! Made the match based on WMO squares... this one is too loose to count. But the second one is pretty close, only off by 2 or so degrees.
09/13/2010 (8:48 pm)
Another hit. I must admit my model has not held up very well since August. I wont know for sure until I load in the data in my database and run my match function. Again, I lowered the magnitude for this reason. Even with the perigee and the Autumnal equinox it does not seem to have the same tidal effect as we see with an eclipse.SOURCE Predicted MAG_RANGE WMO LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USGS 2010-09-20 5.0 - 6.4 1314 35.36 140.21 U:2:JAPAN
Actual:
Magnitude 5.8
Date-Time
* Monday, September 13, 2010 at 05:47:49 UTC
Location 41.523°N, 142.037°E
Depth 59.5 km (37.0 miles)
Region HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
Again look at the accuracy of the latitude longitude and magnitude. This one is right on.
Predicted: 41.98, 140.66
Actual: 41.52, 142.00
News Story Here:
www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_578006.html
Quote:
Moderate quake rattles Japan
TOKYO - A 5.7-MAGNITUDE earthquake struck off northern Japan on Monday, the Japan Meteorological Agency said. There were no immediate reports of damage and no tsunami warning.
The tremor hit at 2.48pm local time (0548 GMT, 1.48pm Singapore time), at a depth of 60 km in waters between the main island of Honshu and the northern island of Hokkaido, the agency said.
Around 20 per cent of the world's most powerful earthquakes strike Japan, which has developed one of the most sophisticated tsunami warning systems. -- AFP
And Another...
SOURCE Predicted MAG_RANGE WMO LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-09-18 5.0 - 7.8 1314 39.00 142.50 JAPAN: NEAR E COAST HONSHU USGS 2010-09-20 5.0 - 6.4 1314 35.36 140.21 U:2:JAPAN
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time
* Monday, September 13, 2010 at 23:05:19 UTC
Location 32.131°N, 141.599°E
Depth 40.5 km (25.2 miles)
Region IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
Distances 200 km (125 miles) ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan
410 km (255 miles) SSE of Yokohama, Honshu, Japan
This time though the match is pretty week the Latitude is off by 6.8 degrees for the frist one... drat! Made the match based on WMO squares... this one is too loose to count. But the second one is pretty close, only off by 2 or so degrees.
#353
I saw the one in Japan, should probably be more soon.
09/15/2010 (4:45 pm)
Another few quakes in Mexico but I don't see areas nearby on your list. Did the system miss one?I saw the one in Japan, should probably be more soon.
#354
What we have is an earthquake database built around lunar and solar eclipses trying to predict quakes with no eclipse. I guess it should be expected that its predictive capabilities are much weaker months later when we have no eclipse.
I'm trying to correlate the data with the equinox, perigee and full moon, but its not working as well as hoped. Still, it is correct for some.
I'm working on loading in lunar perigee data as well. I think we need the data to work in two modes, eclipse mode and standard perigee syzygy mode to increase accuracy.
09/15/2010 (10:08 pm)
Seneq, yeah. The system is missing quite a few, and predicting many that do not occur. What we have is an earthquake database built around lunar and solar eclipses trying to predict quakes with no eclipse. I guess it should be expected that its predictive capabilities are much weaker months later when we have no eclipse.
I'm trying to correlate the data with the equinox, perigee and full moon, but its not working as well as hoped. Still, it is correct for some.
I'm working on loading in lunar perigee data as well. I think we need the data to work in two modes, eclipse mode and standard perigee syzygy mode to increase accuracy.
#355
USGS 2010-09-21 5.0 - 6.0 5217 -22.5 -174.9 U:TONGA ISLANDS
Region: TONGA
Geographic coordinates: 16.005S, 173.979W
Magnitude: 5.5 Mb
Depth: 96 km
Universal Time (UTC): 16 Sep 2010 01:54:42
Time near the Epicenter: 16 Sep 2010 14:54:42
Local standard time in your area: 16 Sep 2010 09:54:42
I think it is going to take some time to get it working right, computers are not as smart as humans, but you are plugging in the numbers, the more quakes that happen the more you can plug in to fill the holes.
09/16/2010 (3:00 am)
Seems you may have got this one today, a few days early, but it seems to match somewhat, the lat and long are a little off but the mag. is correct.USGS 2010-09-21 5.0 - 6.0 5217 -22.5 -174.9 U:TONGA ISLANDS
Region: TONGA
Geographic coordinates: 16.005S, 173.979W
Magnitude: 5.5 Mb
Depth: 96 km
Universal Time (UTC): 16 Sep 2010 01:54:42
Time near the Epicenter: 16 Sep 2010 14:54:42
Local standard time in your area: 16 Sep 2010 09:54:42
I think it is going to take some time to get it working right, computers are not as smart as humans, but you are plugging in the numbers, the more quakes that happen the more you can plug in to fill the holes.
#356
Magnitude 6.2
Date-Time
* Friday, September 17, 2010 at 19:21:15 UTC
Location 36.438°N, 70.787°E
Depth 220.4 km (137.0 miles) set by location program
Region HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
Distances 80 km (50 miles) SSE of Faizabad, Afghanistan
Its off by 11 days, but unlike the vast majority of my predictions its a land based quake. Normally I'd filter this one out of my list, and would not bother to make the prediction.
09/20/2010 (2:58 pm)
Seneq, yeah that one was close but the latitude was off by more than 6 degrees. My current matching algorithm uses 5 degrees. Each degree of latitude is approximately 69 miles. So that one was off by about 450 miles. I'm counting them if they are less than 350 miles. This one was however on target.SOURCE DATE MAG_RANGE WMO LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-09-06 5.0 - 6.5 1307 36.35 71.093 AFGHANISTAN: TILI; JALALABAD; BADAKHSHAN USGS 2010-09-06 5.0 - 6.5 1307 36.36 71.090 U:2:AFGHANISTAN
Magnitude 6.2
Date-Time
* Friday, September 17, 2010 at 19:21:15 UTC
Location 36.438°N, 70.787°E
Depth 220.4 km (137.0 miles) set by location program
Region HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
Distances 80 km (50 miles) SSE of Faizabad, Afghanistan
Its off by 11 days, but unlike the vast majority of my predictions its a land based quake. Normally I'd filter this one out of my list, and would not bother to make the prediction.
#357
09/24/2010 (5:58 pm)
Major temperature change here, I suspect there could be a quake any day now. I don't think it will be that big though, around 5 is possible.
#358
The weather is cooling off continually so I wouldn't be surprised if a few more came up.
09/25/2010 (5:01 pm)
We had several yesturday. I posted that message and then 10 minutes later I got the message from USGS, I honestly did get it, but I posted after the fact. But there were several more afterwords.The weather is cooling off continually so I wouldn't be surprised if a few more came up.
#359
Predicted Magnitude 5
Actual Magnitude 5
The big squares are the magnitude 5 quakes. Mind you we have no big quakes, but I was not expecting big ones this time. I believe the magnitude 7 quakes will begin in November.
Here are the possible big quakes in the near future. Upping the magnitude back up to 6 again.
09/27/2010 (6:00 pm)
I feel like I just hit the jackpot. Take a look at today's quake map and compare it to the prediction map. You were correct about a magnitude 5 in the near future as well. After loading in the data for the year I'll have a full report of the matches. For now a visual inspection shows a nice correlation for September. Just about all the squares were hit with magnitude 5 quakes the September 23rd events.Predicted Magnitude 5
Actual Magnitude 5
The big squares are the magnitude 5 quakes. Mind you we have no big quakes, but I was not expecting big ones this time. I believe the magnitude 7 quakes will begin in November.
Here are the possible big quakes in the near future. Upping the magnitude back up to 6 again.
SOURCE PREDICTED MAGNITUDE WMO LAT LONG REGION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGDC 2010-09-29 6.0 - 7.5 1311 36.4 114.2 CHINA: HEBEI PROVINCE NGDC 2010-10-03 6.0 - 7.9 3305 -34 57 INDIAN OCEAN: S NGDC 2010-10-04 6.0 - 7.1 1414 46.08 142.55 RUSSIA: TATAR STRAIT USGS 2010-10-24 6.0 - 7.4 3116 -19.2 168.95 U:2:U: VANUATU ISLANDS NGDC 2010-10-26 6.0 - 8.1 5107 -12.2 -77.79 PERU: LIMA; CALLAO USGS 2010-10-26 6.0 - 7.6 5107 -12.2 -77.79 U:2:PERU NGDC 2010-10-28 6.0 - 7.0 7106 10.59 -63.48 VENEZUELA: CARIACO-CUMANA USGS 2010-10-28 6.0 - 7.0 7106 10.60 -63.49 U:2:U: VENEZUELA: CARUPANO NGDC 2010-10-29 6.0 - 7.0 7007 6.845 -76.80 COLOMBIA: MURINDO; CALI NGDC 2010-10-29 6.0 - 7.6 3010 -1 101 INDONESIA: S SUMATERA NGDC 2010-10-30 6.0 - 7.5 7106 17.3 -62 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA; ST KITTS USGS 2010-10-30 6.0 - 7.5 7106 17.30 -62.00 U:2:U: ANTIGUA NGDC 2010-10-31 6.0 - 7.4 7007 7.075 -76.86 COLOMBIA: MURINDO; APARTADO; MEDELLIN USGS 2010-10-31 6.0 - 7.2 7007 7.07 -76.86 U:COLOMBIA: MURINDO; APARTADO; MEDELLIN USGS 2010-11-07 6.0 - 6.9 7109 16.33 -98.22 U:2:MEXICO: ACAPULCO USGS 2010-11-07 6.0 - 7.3 7503 52.64 -32.07
#360
Actual
Magnitude 7.2
Date-Time
* Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 17:11:24 UTC
* Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 02:11:24 AM at epicenter
Location 4.920°S, 133.783°E
Depth 12.3 km (7.6 miles)
Region NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
Distances
* 109 km (68 miles) NNW (334°) from Dobo, Aru Islands, Indonesia
Complete prediction list below:
09/29/2010 (6:17 pm)
Predicted [code] SOURCE PREDICTED MAGNITUDE WMO LAT LONG REGION ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USGS 2010-10-31 5.0 - 6.2 3013 -6.28 130.21 U:2:INDONESIA: BANDA SEA31 Days Early, and off by an order of magnitude. I filtered it out of the list posted in the blog based on magnitude. However it is on the prediction spreadsheet linked earlier.
Actual
Magnitude 7.2
Date-Time
* Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 17:11:24 UTC
* Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 02:11:24 AM at epicenter
Location 4.920°S, 133.783°E
Depth 12.3 km (7.6 miles)
Region NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
Distances
* 109 km (68 miles) NNW (334°) from Dobo, Aru Islands, Indonesia
Complete prediction list below:
SOURCE PREDICTED MAGNITUDE WMO LAT LONG REGION ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USGS 2010-10-01 5.0 - 6.1 5207 -28.0 -70.61 U:2:CHILE: VALLENAR NGDC 2010-10-02 5.0 - 6.7 1302 36.31 23.212 GREECE: SOUTHERN USGS 2010-10-02 5.0 - 6.7 1302 36.31 23.21 U:GREECE: CRETE: ANTIKYTHIRA NGDC 2010-10-03 5.0 - 7.9 3305 -34 57 INDIAN OCEAN: S NGDC 2010-10-04 5.0 - 7.1 1414 46.08 142.55 RUSSIA: TATAR STRAIT NGDC 2010-10-06 5.0 - 6.4 1111 18 119.5 PHILIPPINES: W. LUZON ISLAND USGS 2010-10-06 5.0 - 6.1 3615 -61.2 154.36 USGS 2010-10-07 5.0 - 6.4 1414 43.29 142.42 USGS 2010-10-08 5.0 - 6.7 1012 1.29 129.12 USGS 2010-10-22 5.0 - 6.3 1407 49.92 78.92 NGDC 2010-10-24 5.0 - 6.2 3014 -4.98 145.57 PAPUA NEW GUINEA: E; MT HAGEN NGDC 2010-10-24 5.0 - 6.8 1313 35.75 134.75 JAPAN: HONSHU: TAJIMA USGS 2010-10-24 5.0 - 6.5 3014 -4.98 145.58 U:2:PAPUA NEW GUINEA: MADANG USGS 2010-10-24 5.0 - 6.8 5307 -30.0 -71.87 U:2:CHILE USGS 2010-10-24 5.0 - 7.4 3116 -19.2 168.95 U:2:U: VANUATU ISLANDS USGS 2010-10-25 5.0 - 6.1 7108 16.16 -87.92 U:GUATEMALA: IZABAL-PUERTO BARRIOS; HONDURAS: W NGDC 2010-10-26 5.0 - 6.5 7007 8.9 -73.4 COLOMBIA: NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA NGDC 2010-10-26 5.0 - 6.3 1112 12.2 122.1 PHILIPPINES: LUZON: W NGDC 2010-10-26 5.0 - 8.1 5107 -12.2 -77.79 PERU: LIMA; CALLAO USGS 2010-10-26 5.0 - 7.6 5107 -12.2 -77.79 U:2:PERU USGS 2010-10-26 5.0 - 6.1 7008 7.16 -82.25 U:2:U: PANAMA NGDC 2010-10-28 5.0 - 7.0 7106 10.59 -63.48 VENEZUELA: CARIACO-CUMANA USGS 2010-10-28 5.0 - 6.8 3116 -14.5 166.71 U:2:U: VANUATU ISLANDS: ESPIRITU SANTO; LUGANILLE USGS 2010-10-28 5.0 - 7.0 7106 10.60 -63.49 U:2:U: VENEZUELA: CARUPANO NGDC 2010-10-29 5.0 - 7.0 7007 6.845 -76.80 COLOMBIA: MURINDO; CALI NGDC 2010-10-29 5.0 - 7.6 3010 -1 101 INDONESIA: S SUMATERA USGS 2010-10-29 5.0 - 6.0 3011 -5.70 110.80 USGS 2010-10-29 5.0 - 6.5 3116 -19.2 169.55 U:2:U: VANUATU ISLANDS USGS 2010-10-29 5.0 - 6.7 7007 6.84 -76.81 U:COLOMBIA: MURINDO; APARTADO; MEDELLIN NGDC 2010-10-30 5.0 - 7.5 7106 17.3 -62 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA; ST KITTS USGS 2010-10-30 5.0 - 7.5 7106 17.30 -62.00 U:2:U: ANTIGUA USGS 2010-10-30 5.0 - 6.0 5502 -58.3 -27.37 U:2:SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS NGDC 2010-10-31 5.0 - 6.5 7008 8.316 -82.94 PANAMA-COSTA RICA: PUERTO ARMUELLES NGDC 2010-10-31 5.0 - 7.4 7007 7.075 -76.86 COLOMBIA: MURINDO; APARTADO; MEDELLIN USGS 2010-10-31 5.0 - 6.2 3013 -6.28 130.21 U:2:INDONESIA: BANDA SEA USGS 2010-10-31 5.0 - 6.7 7008 8.32 -82.94 U:2:PANAMA-COSTA RICA USGS 2010-10-31 5.0 - 6.7 1415 44.72 150.12 U:2:RUSSIA: KURIL ISLANDS USGS 2010-10-31 5.0 - 7.2 7007 7.07 -76.86 U:COLOMBIA: MURINDO; APARTADO; MEDELLIN
Torque Owner Britton LaRoche
At first I was not really sure If EQSA predicted the magnitude 7.0 earthquake for September 3rd 2010 at the South Island of New Zealand. The problem is most of the data I have from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on line database query results lists only latitude and longitude, and not the region name. So I have to make best guesses and update the data in my database off of the NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) data. The NGDC online data does not list all the quakes.
I'm in the process of updating my database to match the quake location to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) squares so I can better visualize and get a grasp of the predictions that list latitude and longitude. It also is much easier to query in a database. One field gives you the latitude and longitude defined as a square.
This is the quake location:
43.332°S, 172.438°E
It corresponds to wmo square 3417.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organization_squares
After running the most recent models query there was a prediction for a magnitude 5-6 on June 8th 2010. So the answer is no. The model did not predict this quake.
No dice. There were a few other quakes of magnitude 7.0 that this model did not predict as well. That was not true all the way through August 9th 2010. The model predicted all the 7.0 quakes this summer until that point.
I've colored in the squares predicted for the next 45 days. These are all the magnitude 5 quakes and above. Interestingly EQSA predicts another quake in the same location as the 1969 8.2 Sumatra quake, a similar quake in 2004 caused the great tsunami. Its making this prediction for September 6th 2010. On September 8th we have both lunar perigee and a new moon Syzygy.
We have 3 events increasing the affect of the solar / lunar gravitational forces at work on the tides.
1. Lunar Perigee (closest in orbit to earth) September 8th 2010
2. New Moon Syzygy September 8th 2010
3. Vernal Equinox September 23rd 2010
The tidal variation will be huge. If tidal forces do a play a role in triggering earthquakes in the pacific (my theory) then we should have a great number of earthquakes in the next few weeks.
Here is a visual look at all the Magnitude 5.0 quakes and above for the next 45 days. I put lots of weight for the ones in the pacific, near the equator.
As you can see 3417 and new zealand is not predicted. This map looks rather general, but the predictions them selves are very specific as to latitude longitude, date and magnitude.
The next month (especially the next three weeks) should be very interesting.
www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/predictions.2010.09.xls