Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (10:12 pm) · 242 comments
So this is the last post on the Eclipse Earthquake simulator. I have no plans to create the simulator (but before I drop the idea all together) I thought I'd use a little Psuedo science to make my own earth quake prediction for the July 22 2009 Eclipse.
August 26 2009 Update. Results are in
Read here to see the final results. We had zero M6 or M7 quakes in these circles this year before July. We have two M6 and one M7 on the days of my prediction. This theory accurately predicted 14 earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M7.1 on the Richter scale in a 17 day window. This cannot be coincidence.
Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
The results show 100% accuracy on the original prediction with significant earthquakes in all 3 circles between July 22nd and July 28th. Follow up results with predictions after the lunar eclipse on August 6th indicate further accuracy Read here to find out why. We had 3 tsunamis from these quakes ranging from 30 cm to 60 cm (less than 2 feet)
This theory correctly predicted the M7.1 and M6.1 earthquakes in Japan on August 9th and 10th. Read here to see the final results.
Table of Contents
Page 1 - The Theory and Prediction
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Page 3 - The Geologist behind the Eclipse Quake Theory-- Jim Berkland (You Tube)
Page 7 - Correct Predictions of 7+ August 9th and 10th earthquakes
Page 8 - Updates to prediction - Why we will have more 7+ quakes before August 25th
Page 12 - December 31st 2009 Prediction
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
*** Note 1: Updated May 07 2009 With data from 3 previous Total Solar Eclipses and 3 Earthquakes all in the same region (and same day within 6 hours) from the past 20 years. Note 2: This is a theory and I have no background in earth science or seismology. In short, I have no valid qualification to back this prediction. Update June 24 2009: But, this theory is now backed a credible scientist who does. Hans Lehner's Earth Quake prediction***
Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
July 22nd through July 30th 2009 Earth Quake Prediction
I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the junction of 4 tectonic plates
Japans tectonic plates
*** Note: 07/07/2009 Update: Historical data has changed my prediction to be a few hours before the total eclipse, with a window of 8 days after the eclipse. Prediction is from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 read Page 2 - Supporting evidence to find out why ***
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be followed by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacific ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach Papua New Guinea. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. I assumed an hour delay for each event following the lunar eclipse, and then summed the values. I assumed that the events would last longer for the fluids, water and molten magma than for dry land. I then summed the values four all 4 plates where Japan sits.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full. Why is this the big one? A tsunami can occur with a level 7.0 magnitude or higher. The last two eclipse earthquakes in 2004 and 2007 have been 6.9. Japan has a violent 8.4 quake known as the "Tokai" quake that occurs on a cycle of every 150 years or so. The last one was in 1854. That means Japan has been ripe for the big one since 2004. This (July 22nd 2009) eclipse is the longest (over 6 minutes) in over a century and the moon is the closest it will be to earth in over a century. It has the greatest chance of causing a gravitational disturbance of any eclipse in the past 100 years. Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Just about every eclipse in the past 10 years in Japan has a significant earthquake associated with it. I prefer data within a few hours of the eclipse, but if I open the time window to a few days after, the correlation jumps to 85%. Only one eclipse in this region in 2003 did not have a corresponding quake during the past decade. For Japan, over the past decade or so, 6 out of 7 eclipses with corresponding earthquakes with in a few days (or hours) is a significant fact.
7 Solar Eclipses, 6 Earthquakes in 10 years
Read through Page 2 - Supporting evidence
The first thing to happen on July 22nd 2009 is greatly magnified tidal forces (solar and lunar tide combined during the eclipse) pushing down on the subducted Phillipine plate. The vast volume of sea water (30% greater than normal) is pushing downward with billions upon billions of tons of pressure a few hours before the eclipse. Shortly after, as the moons orbit encroaches on the sun, the centripetal force of the earths rotation is combined with the gravitational pull of both the sun and moon. The gravitational pull and centripetal force provide an upward lift on the Eurasian plate. We now have both a lift on the upper plate and a downward force on the subducted plate. The only thing preventing an earthquake is the friction between these plates. The gravitational and tidal forces work together during the longest and closest eclipse in 100 years help to alleviate the friction and let the plates slide. When the plates slide we get the big tokai quake that's been building for over 150 years. (This is my theory anyway...)
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
Data Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
We start with scientific data gathered from March 1988 where we have Earthquake with a few hours of a Total Solar Eclipse. This historical data matches nearly perfectly the exact location of my current Earthquake prediction. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in Japan, March 18 1988.
China Quakes
Its not just Japan that gets the quakes with a Total Solar Eclipse. China has a recent history too. There is a chance they will get a quake as well, but not as high a chance as Japan. The interesting thing to note is that there does seem to be a significant correlation between Total Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes in this region over the past decade. A magnitude 6+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in China, October 1995. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 1 hour before the total solar eclipse in China, August 2008.
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
** Read through page 2 to get the detailed earthquake data *** End update ***
August 26 2009 Update. Results are in
Read here to see the final results. We had zero M6 or M7 quakes in these circles this year before July. We have two M6 and one M7 on the days of my prediction. This theory accurately predicted 14 earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M7.1 on the Richter scale in a 17 day window. This cannot be coincidence.
Click here to donate and help build the simulator!
The results show 100% accuracy on the original prediction with significant earthquakes in all 3 circles between July 22nd and July 28th. Follow up results with predictions after the lunar eclipse on August 6th indicate further accuracy Read here to find out why. We had 3 tsunamis from these quakes ranging from 30 cm to 60 cm (less than 2 feet)
This theory correctly predicted the M7.1 and M6.1 earthquakes in Japan on August 9th and 10th. Read here to see the final results.
Table of Contents
Page 1 - The Theory and Prediction
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Page 3 - The Geologist behind the Eclipse Quake Theory-- Jim Berkland (You Tube)
Page 7 - Correct Predictions of 7+ August 9th and 10th earthquakes
Page 8 - Updates to prediction - Why we will have more 7+ quakes before August 25th
Page 12 - December 31st 2009 Prediction
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
*** Note 1: Updated May 07 2009 With data from 3 previous Total Solar Eclipses and 3 Earthquakes all in the same region (and same day within 6 hours) from the past 20 years. Note 2: This is a theory and I have no background in earth science or seismology. In short, I have no valid qualification to back this prediction. Update June 24 2009: But, this theory is now backed a credible scientist who does. Hans Lehner's Earth Quake prediction***
Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
July 22nd through July 30th 2009 Earth Quake Prediction
I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the junction of 4 tectonic plates
Japans tectonic plates
*** Note: 07/07/2009 Update: Historical data has changed my prediction to be a few hours before the total eclipse, with a window of 8 days after the eclipse. Prediction is from July 22nd through July 30th 2009 read Page 2 - Supporting evidence to find out why ***
I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be followed by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacific ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach Papua New Guinea. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.
Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.
Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.
1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.
I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. I assumed an hour delay for each event following the lunar eclipse, and then summed the values. I assumed that the events would last longer for the fluids, water and molten magma than for dry land. I then summed the values four all 4 plates where Japan sits.
The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full. Why is this the big one? A tsunami can occur with a level 7.0 magnitude or higher. The last two eclipse earthquakes in 2004 and 2007 have been 6.9. Japan has a violent 8.4 quake known as the "Tokai" quake that occurs on a cycle of every 150 years or so. The last one was in 1854. That means Japan has been ripe for the big one since 2004. This (July 22nd 2009) eclipse is the longest (over 6 minutes) in over a century and the moon is the closest it will be to earth in over a century. It has the greatest chance of causing a gravitational disturbance of any eclipse in the past 100 years. Page 2 - Supporting evidence
Just about every eclipse in the past 10 years in Japan has a significant earthquake associated with it. I prefer data within a few hours of the eclipse, but if I open the time window to a few days after, the correlation jumps to 85%. Only one eclipse in this region in 2003 did not have a corresponding quake during the past decade. For Japan, over the past decade or so, 6 out of 7 eclipses with corresponding earthquakes with in a few days (or hours) is a significant fact.
7 Solar Eclipses, 6 Earthquakes in 10 years
Read through Page 2 - Supporting evidence
The first thing to happen on July 22nd 2009 is greatly magnified tidal forces (solar and lunar tide combined during the eclipse) pushing down on the subducted Phillipine plate. The vast volume of sea water (30% greater than normal) is pushing downward with billions upon billions of tons of pressure a few hours before the eclipse. Shortly after, as the moons orbit encroaches on the sun, the centripetal force of the earths rotation is combined with the gravitational pull of both the sun and moon. The gravitational pull and centripetal force provide an upward lift on the Eurasian plate. We now have both a lift on the upper plate and a downward force on the subducted plate. The only thing preventing an earthquake is the friction between these plates. The gravitational and tidal forces work together during the longest and closest eclipse in 100 years help to alleviate the friction and let the plates slide. When the plates slide we get the big tokai quake that's been building for over 150 years. (This is my theory anyway...)
I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.
Data Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
We start with scientific data gathered from March 1988 where we have Earthquake with a few hours of a Total Solar Eclipse. This historical data matches nearly perfectly the exact location of my current Earthquake prediction. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in Japan, March 18 1988.
China Quakes
Its not just Japan that gets the quakes with a Total Solar Eclipse. China has a recent history too. There is a chance they will get a quake as well, but not as high a chance as Japan. The interesting thing to note is that there does seem to be a significant correlation between Total Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes in this region over the past decade. A magnitude 6+ earthquake occurred 6 hours before the total solar eclipse in China, October 1995. A magnitude 5+ earthquake occurred 1 hour before the total solar eclipse in China, August 2008.
Page 2 - Supporting evidence
** Read through page 2 to get the detailed earthquake data *** End update ***
#222
Magnitude 6.2 us2009lcaq
Date-Time Thursday, September 03, 2009 at 13:26:18 UTC
Location 31.128°N, 130.051°E
Depth 161.5 km (100.4 miles)
Region KYUSHU, JAPAN
Image above is modified from work produced by Keith Cooley 2002
We now have a lunar syzgy, tonight September 4th 2009 we have a full moon, and a straight line between the sun the earth and the moon. Its not an eclipse so its not a line through the center, just a straight line of the celestial objects. This causes gravitational effects on the earth, not the least of which are high tides.
I'm now predicting earthquakes of M6 to M7 September 4th 2009 through September 12th 2009 in Japan and Taiwan. The long term cumulative force theory does seem to have its first real evidence. I was wrong about a solar eclipse having more of an effect. It seems lunar eclipses are greater. I was wrong about the magnitude of the August 22nd quake for the same reason, new moon is much like a solar eclipse, full moon like a lunar eclipse. The Syzygy where the moon and sun pull in opposite directions seem to have a greater effect. This last 6.2 quake was right before the full moon syzygy on Sept 04 2009. Tonight through Sept 12th (next 8 days) (according to this theory) we will see more M6 to M7 earthquakes in Japan and Taiwan.
In fact, I can tell you nearly the exact number of quakes and their magnitude. Over the next 8 days we will have at least 1 Magnitude 7 or greater quake, and at least 3 Magnitude 6 or greater. How do I know? Simple. I'm looking at the data from the last full moon syzygy (lunar eclipse) and the quakes it produced from August 9th through August 18th. These were the quakes my lunar tectonic weakening theory accurately predicted last month.
A Better Method of Prediction
If this theory is correct, I can do better than that. Using the "long term lunar tectonic weakening theory" I can tell you the quakes will really start in full force 3 days after the full moon syzygy on Sept 7th 2009. Its the same pattern we saw on August 6th with the lunar eclipse Syzygy and the first big quake on August 9th. We already had a 6.2, so according to theory we can expect bigger ones sooner, and the real stuff to begin on September 7th.
The "long term lunar tectonic weakening theory" simply states that the abnormally high tides produced by solar and lunar eclipses cause the friction between tectonic plates deep under the ocean to be reduced as the subducted plate receives billions of tons of additional pressure for the enormous ocean tides. This effect is cumulative, each pass pushes the plate further and the new friction points have less resistance. We just went through 3 eclipses (two lunar and one solar) over the last two months. So the plates are really weak and ready to slide with the new high tides rolling over them tonight.
I predict a minimum of 4 M6+ earthquakes over the next 9 days. If I'm right then the theory is correct beyond reasonable doubt. The odds of predicting the correct time, location and magnitude of an earthquake is thought to be impossible. We will see.
I also think we will have quakes in Japan and Taiwan on the next lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009.
09/04/2009 (4:58 am)
The page rolled... so a quick update is in order. I was sure we would not have quakes in Japan and Taiwan until Dec 31st, and then we had the following quake. This quake occurred right before the full moon syzgy on Sept 24th 2009. I know it occurred when we had very high tides.Magnitude 6.2 us2009lcaq
Date-Time Thursday, September 03, 2009 at 13:26:18 UTC
Location 31.128°N, 130.051°E
Depth 161.5 km (100.4 miles)
Region KYUSHU, JAPAN
Image above is modified from work produced by Keith Cooley 2002
We now have a lunar syzgy, tonight September 4th 2009 we have a full moon, and a straight line between the sun the earth and the moon. Its not an eclipse so its not a line through the center, just a straight line of the celestial objects. This causes gravitational effects on the earth, not the least of which are high tides.
I'm now predicting earthquakes of M6 to M7 September 4th 2009 through September 12th 2009 in Japan and Taiwan. The long term cumulative force theory does seem to have its first real evidence. I was wrong about a solar eclipse having more of an effect. It seems lunar eclipses are greater. I was wrong about the magnitude of the August 22nd quake for the same reason, new moon is much like a solar eclipse, full moon like a lunar eclipse. The Syzygy where the moon and sun pull in opposite directions seem to have a greater effect. This last 6.2 quake was right before the full moon syzygy on Sept 04 2009. Tonight through Sept 12th (next 8 days) (according to this theory) we will see more M6 to M7 earthquakes in Japan and Taiwan.
In fact, I can tell you nearly the exact number of quakes and their magnitude. Over the next 8 days we will have at least 1 Magnitude 7 or greater quake, and at least 3 Magnitude 6 or greater. How do I know? Simple. I'm looking at the data from the last full moon syzygy (lunar eclipse) and the quakes it produced from August 9th through August 18th. These were the quakes my lunar tectonic weakening theory accurately predicted last month.
UTC DATE-TIME LAT LON ID Mag Region -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009/08/09 10:55:55 33.12N, 138.02E us2009kcaz 7.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/10 20:07:07 34.77N, 138.27E us2009kdb4 6.1 HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/13 22:48:51 32.81N, 140.38E us2009kfcp 6.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/17 00:05:47 23.50N, 123.59E us2009kjcq 6.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/17 10:10:55 23.39N, 123.54E us2009kkay 6.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan)
A Better Method of Prediction
If this theory is correct, I can do better than that. Using the "long term lunar tectonic weakening theory" I can tell you the quakes will really start in full force 3 days after the full moon syzygy on Sept 7th 2009. Its the same pattern we saw on August 6th with the lunar eclipse Syzygy and the first big quake on August 9th. We already had a 6.2, so according to theory we can expect bigger ones sooner, and the real stuff to begin on September 7th.
The "long term lunar tectonic weakening theory" simply states that the abnormally high tides produced by solar and lunar eclipses cause the friction between tectonic plates deep under the ocean to be reduced as the subducted plate receives billions of tons of additional pressure for the enormous ocean tides. This effect is cumulative, each pass pushes the plate further and the new friction points have less resistance. We just went through 3 eclipses (two lunar and one solar) over the last two months. So the plates are really weak and ready to slide with the new high tides rolling over them tonight.
I predict a minimum of 4 M6+ earthquakes over the next 9 days. If I'm right then the theory is correct beyond reasonable doubt. The odds of predicting the correct time, location and magnitude of an earthquake is thought to be impossible. We will see.
I also think we will have quakes in Japan and Taiwan on the next lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009.
#223
1. There is a long term lunar tectonic weakening effect from a solar / lunar eclipse.
2. This long term effect makes even a full moon syzygy a real threat.
The events behind the 2004 Tsunami
The magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred after a lunar eclipse on the day of a full moon Dec 26th 2004. The full moon (and quake / tsunami) followed two months after the total lunar eclipse on October 28th 2004. It was a double eclipse too, the lunar eclipse followed 14 days later on the heels of the October 14th 2004 Partial solar eclipse.
The September 4th 2009 full moon also follows two months after the July 7th Lunar eclipse. It follows 6 weeks after the July 22nd total solar eclipse, and one month after the last lunar eclipse on August 6th 2009. But, the difference is that the December 26th 2004 full moon occurred while the earth was at perihelion (closest in orbit to the sun). So I expect M6 and M7, but not M9.1.
Scientific Theory and Evidence
Again, here is scientific evidence backing the theory from the Department of Astronomy in Taiwan, and a retired USGS geologist.
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Retired USGS Geologist
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
The Great Kanto Quake of 1923
When I first learned of this effect I assumed that the biggest effect would be a solar eclipse, not a lunar eclipse. I still believe that the effect is greater when the earth is closest to the sun in its elliptical orbit (perihelion) and the moon is closest to earth in its elliptical orbit (perigee). We don't have either of these on Sept 4th 2009. But, we did not have either of these with the great Kanto quake on September 1st 1923.
Aug 16 09:44:00 Perigee -- 367614 km
Aug 26 10:39:52 Partial Lunar eclipse -- e Asia, Australia, Americas
Aug 26 10:29:00 Full Moon Syzygy
Aug 31 11:05:00 Apogee -- 405267 km
Sept 1 11:58:44 am JST Kanto Quake -- M7.9
Sept 10 20:47:00 Total Solar Eclipse -- Pacific Ocean, Americas
Sept 12 22:12:00 Perigee -- 362553 Km
The great Kanto quake M7.9 occurred 6 days after the full moon syzygy after a lunar eclipse.
At first I did not see a correlation between the big quakes and the eclipses. The reason is simple, it takes 29.5 days for the moon to make its orbit and return to nearly the same spot. It takes 29.5 days for us to feel the cumulative effect of the tectonic slip.
Factors leading up to major earthquakes
We have a lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009 Followed By a partial solar eclipse 14 days later, followed by (you guessed it) a full moon 29.5 days later at the end of January in 2010. I can almost guarantee big quakes in Japan at the end of January in 2010.
I think if we can find a double (lunar and solar) total eclipse at perigee in December / January when the earth is at perihelion we would have a massive earthquake either then or 29.5 days later at full moon. We can test this theory by looking at historical data.
09/04/2009 (5:08 am)
If we do have M7 quakes from 2009/09/04 - 2009/09/12 in Japan and Taiwan it means two things.1. There is a long term lunar tectonic weakening effect from a solar / lunar eclipse.
2. This long term effect makes even a full moon syzygy a real threat.
The events behind the 2004 Tsunami
The magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred after a lunar eclipse on the day of a full moon Dec 26th 2004. The full moon (and quake / tsunami) followed two months after the total lunar eclipse on October 28th 2004. It was a double eclipse too, the lunar eclipse followed 14 days later on the heels of the October 14th 2004 Partial solar eclipse.
The September 4th 2009 full moon also follows two months after the July 7th Lunar eclipse. It follows 6 weeks after the July 22nd total solar eclipse, and one month after the last lunar eclipse on August 6th 2009. But, the difference is that the December 26th 2004 full moon occurred while the earth was at perihelion (closest in orbit to the sun). So I expect M6 and M7, but not M9.1.
Scientific Theory and Evidence
Again, here is scientific evidence backing the theory from the Department of Astronomy in Taiwan, and a retired USGS geologist.
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
Retired USGS Geologist
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
Quote:
"Syzygy" refers to the alignment of three celestial objects. Syzygy of the sun, Earth, and moon occur twice a month, at the full and new moons. At such times, gravitational forces are at a maximum, especially when the bodies are close together, Berkland said.
...
"So we know Earth's gravity triggers moonquakes. I don't think any scientist disputes that," Berkland said. "When I learned that, I went to my former [U.S. Geological Survey] colleagues in Menlo Park [California] and pointed out this really exists, so what's so difficult about turning it around?"
...
the moon is mostly solid and lacks a liquid core like the Earth, Berkland said. The Earth "is an active, living planet, and so it is not at all surprising that minor gravitational stresses can trigger earthquakes," he said.
The Great Kanto Quake of 1923
When I first learned of this effect I assumed that the biggest effect would be a solar eclipse, not a lunar eclipse. I still believe that the effect is greater when the earth is closest to the sun in its elliptical orbit (perihelion) and the moon is closest to earth in its elliptical orbit (perigee). We don't have either of these on Sept 4th 2009. But, we did not have either of these with the great Kanto quake on September 1st 1923.
Aug 16 09:44:00 Perigee -- 367614 km
Aug 26 10:39:52 Partial Lunar eclipse -- e Asia, Australia, Americas
Aug 26 10:29:00 Full Moon Syzygy
Aug 31 11:05:00 Apogee -- 405267 km
Sept 1 11:58:44 am JST Kanto Quake -- M7.9
Sept 10 20:47:00 Total Solar Eclipse -- Pacific Ocean, Americas
Sept 12 22:12:00 Perigee -- 362553 Km
The great Kanto quake M7.9 occurred 6 days after the full moon syzygy after a lunar eclipse.
At first I did not see a correlation between the big quakes and the eclipses. The reason is simple, it takes 29.5 days for the moon to make its orbit and return to nearly the same spot. It takes 29.5 days for us to feel the cumulative effect of the tectonic slip.
Factors leading up to major earthquakes
We have a lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009 Followed By a partial solar eclipse 14 days later, followed by (you guessed it) a full moon 29.5 days later at the end of January in 2010. I can almost guarantee big quakes in Japan at the end of January in 2010.
I think if we can find a double (lunar and solar) total eclipse at perigee in December / January when the earth is at perihelion we would have a massive earthquake either then or 29.5 days later at full moon. We can test this theory by looking at historical data.
#224
For one thing the tides differ by latitude. It also differs greatly by the depth of the sea or ocean. Some regions have a great deal of tectonic plates, others do not. Some regions shift more than others, and the type of rock at the plates differ. For example serpentine rock is smooth and frictionless, it allows the California plates to slide gracefully along, where Japan has rough volcanic rock that grinds and pops violently.
This lunar earthquake theory probably works to some degree everywhere but if you want to see a real correlation stick to these regions. We already know there is a correlation in Taiwan because they published a scientific study on it. Why not use this data to make predictions?
What I see is a correlation of big quakes up to two months after a lunar eclipse. Its an 8 day window after each full moon syzygy event. The effect is compounded with a solar eclipse. If you see this pattern you can expect big quakes. Its that simple. Typically that is about 24 days out of a calendar year spread over a two month period. Now we test the refined theory yet again.
Refined Quake Predictions
This year (2009) is different from most, we had two lunar eclipses back to back on July 7th and August 6th. So we have a two month window after each. We just went through the July 7th and August 6th windows (and yes we had big quakes). That means we have the remaining potential quake windows:
September 4th 2009 - September 12th 2009
October 4th 2009 - October 12th 2009
Naturally, the cycle begins again Dec 31st 2009 for next year.
Another Correlation
I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one for another very important reason. (I'm joking about this correlation of course) No one is reading this post. I have less than 40 hits a day. I've noticed and inverse relationship between the number of people who read this post and me being right. I was really right about the August 6th cumulative effect on July 28th when no one was reading. I was wrong (in magnitude) about the August 19-22nd window and the July 22nd window and we had tons of people reading.
The reason was wrong I think, is that at least for this year, the big quakes were with the lunar eclipse cycles.
09/04/2009 (6:19 pm)
If we do go digging about looking at historical data for a correlation we should focus on Japan, Taiwan and apparently Indonesia. Again... and I cannot stress this enough each region of the world is different. For one thing the tides differ by latitude. It also differs greatly by the depth of the sea or ocean. Some regions have a great deal of tectonic plates, others do not. Some regions shift more than others, and the type of rock at the plates differ. For example serpentine rock is smooth and frictionless, it allows the California plates to slide gracefully along, where Japan has rough volcanic rock that grinds and pops violently.
This lunar earthquake theory probably works to some degree everywhere but if you want to see a real correlation stick to these regions. We already know there is a correlation in Taiwan because they published a scientific study on it. Why not use this data to make predictions?
What I see is a correlation of big quakes up to two months after a lunar eclipse. Its an 8 day window after each full moon syzygy event. The effect is compounded with a solar eclipse. If you see this pattern you can expect big quakes. Its that simple. Typically that is about 24 days out of a calendar year spread over a two month period. Now we test the refined theory yet again.
Refined Quake Predictions
This year (2009) is different from most, we had two lunar eclipses back to back on July 7th and August 6th. So we have a two month window after each. We just went through the July 7th and August 6th windows (and yes we had big quakes). That means we have the remaining potential quake windows:
September 4th 2009 - September 12th 2009
October 4th 2009 - October 12th 2009
Naturally, the cycle begins again Dec 31st 2009 for next year.
Another Correlation
I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one for another very important reason. (I'm joking about this correlation of course) No one is reading this post. I have less than 40 hits a day. I've noticed and inverse relationship between the number of people who read this post and me being right. I was really right about the August 6th cumulative effect on July 28th when no one was reading. I was wrong (in magnitude) about the August 19-22nd window and the July 22nd window and we had tons of people reading.
The reason was wrong I think, is that at least for this year, the big quakes were with the lunar eclipse cycles.
#225
The Dec 2004 earthquake of 9.1 occurred within the six months of Venus eclipse (June 2004). The next Venus eclipse is in June 2012. You can expect another M9+ within six months of this eclipse. My guess would be Dec 2012.
Previous Venus Eclipses
Dec 1882 Venus Eclipse - Caused (Krakatoa, Sunda Strait, Indonesia,August 26-27, 1883 Volcano eruption caused tsunami which was as high as 40 meters above sea level)
Dec 1874 Venus Eclipse - Caused (Earthquake M8 in Vanuatu on 28.3.1875 caused Devastating tsunami in Lifou)
09/04/2009 (10:13 pm)
You will need to consider the effects of Venus eclipse also.The Dec 2004 earthquake of 9.1 occurred within the six months of Venus eclipse (June 2004). The next Venus eclipse is in June 2012. You can expect another M9+ within six months of this eclipse. My guess would be Dec 2012.
Previous Venus Eclipses
Dec 1882 Venus Eclipse - Caused (Krakatoa, Sunda Strait, Indonesia,August 26-27, 1883 Volcano eruption caused tsunami which was as high as 40 meters above sea level)
Dec 1874 Venus Eclipse - Caused (Earthquake M8 in Vanuatu on 28.3.1875 caused Devastating tsunami in Lifou)
#226
Alignment of the other planets
I've been wrong about a great many things. At first I could not see how a delayed effect for an earthquake days after an eclipse could be possible. I also though Solar eclipses would be more powerful than lunar eclipses. The data seems to indicate otherwise. But, all of this is based on complicated effects of the spin of the earth and the tidal forces caused by the gravitational effects of the sun and the moon.
From this article we see that the next biggest player is Venus, but its gravitational effect on the tides is 10,000 times smaller. At this point I can't see how Venus can have any tangible effect.
At first I couldn't see how we could have a delayed effect after a lunar eclipse either, but now I do. Its an obvious relationship to the next full moon (29.5 days later) when the moon makes its second pass near the same spot. Perhaps there is something to Venus, its eclipses, and to the alignment in 2012, but I can't fathom the connection at this point in time.
--- Quick update we just had an M4.8, 8 hours ago in Japan. It was close to land and Tokyo so I'm sure it was felt
Magnitude 4.8 us2009ldal
Date-Time Friday, September 04, 2009 at 02:30:29 UTC
Location 35.669°N, 139.951°E
Depth 41.3 km (25.7 miles)
Region NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Just another sign of activity during this Sept 4th - Sept 12th window. We had another M4.5 (us2009ldaj) an hour earlier near the same spot. Its significant enough for me to count as a predicted earthquake. (My cut off point is M4.5, which is significant according to USGS standards) No matter the number of smaller quakes I'm still on the hook for 3 M6 quakes and 1 M7 in my 3 circles before September 12th 2009. My average is is now 16/19 or 84% accuracy in predicting earthquakes.
09/04/2009 (11:31 pm)
@AK,Alignment of the other planets
I've been wrong about a great many things. At first I could not see how a delayed effect for an earthquake days after an eclipse could be possible. I also though Solar eclipses would be more powerful than lunar eclipses. The data seems to indicate otherwise. But, all of this is based on complicated effects of the spin of the earth and the tidal forces caused by the gravitational effects of the sun and the moon.
From this article we see that the next biggest player is Venus, but its gravitational effect on the tides is 10,000 times smaller. At this point I can't see how Venus can have any tangible effect.
Quote:
We see that the tidal pull from the Moon is the strongest, followed by the Sun which has half the effect of the Moon - it's very much larger than the Moon but farther away, and tidal acceleration falls off strongly with distance. The rest of the planets' effects are infinitesimal in comparison; note the next strongest effect after the Sun's is the tidal acceleration due to Venus, which is 10000 times smaller.
At first I couldn't see how we could have a delayed effect after a lunar eclipse either, but now I do. Its an obvious relationship to the next full moon (29.5 days later) when the moon makes its second pass near the same spot. Perhaps there is something to Venus, its eclipses, and to the alignment in 2012, but I can't fathom the connection at this point in time.
--- Quick update we just had an M4.8, 8 hours ago in Japan. It was close to land and Tokyo so I'm sure it was felt
Magnitude 4.8 us2009ldal
Date-Time Friday, September 04, 2009 at 02:30:29 UTC
Location 35.669°N, 139.951°E
Depth 41.3 km (25.7 miles)
Region NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Just another sign of activity during this Sept 4th - Sept 12th window. We had another M4.5 (us2009ldaj) an hour earlier near the same spot. Its significant enough for me to count as a predicted earthquake. (My cut off point is M4.5, which is significant according to USGS standards) No matter the number of smaller quakes I'm still on the hook for 3 M6 quakes and 1 M7 in my 3 circles before September 12th 2009. My average is is now 16/19 or 84% accuracy in predicting earthquakes.
#227
I'm listing one of 4 (new ones) since my last post that makes the point.
Magnitude 5.0 us2009lgbc
Date-Time Monday, September 07, 2009 at 16:24:27 UTC
Location 42.194°N, 142.794°E
Depth 62.1 km (38.6 miles)
Region HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
09/08/2009 (9:55 am)
I assumed we would have a large quake in Japan or Taiwan today. I was wrong about this (nothing new here). However, we do see a lot of quakes in the region. Japan's quakes were pretty much in the ocean over the last couple of months. I now notice the trend (so far) is lower magnitude land based quakes. I also notice that the same regions that had quakes August 9-17th 2009 are the ones getting the quakes again. My bets are still on, I see no reason to say we wont see M6 quakes in Japan and Taiwan before Sept 12th 2009. I'm listing one of 4 (new ones) since my last post that makes the point.
Magnitude 5.0 us2009lgbc
Date-Time Monday, September 07, 2009 at 16:24:27 UTC
Location 42.194°N, 142.794°E
Depth 62.1 km (38.6 miles)
Region HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
#228
My precitive ratio will drop from 16/19 84% to 20/27 74% unless we get some more big quakes in Japan and Taiwan. The thing that's killing my ratio is not the prediction of the quakes, its the magnitude. There is no point in building a simulator unless I can feed it the right data.
In three days time we get Neap tides as the moon nears a right angle with the sun, and the end of any possible lunar effects. If we don't get any significant quakes, then I expect an M5 quake around October 4th and nothing more until December 31st 2009.
09/09/2009 (7:36 pm)
Such a beautiful theory ruined by a simple ugly fact. We are not getting quakes in Japan or Taiwan, the quakes have shifted southward. For the most part we are getting quakes in Indonesia and around New Zealand. Japan has been utterly peaceful. One thing I don't like about predicting earthquakes, is the simple fact that I want to see the earthquakes. Its not a comforting thought that I'm hoping for massive destruction, in fact it disturbs me.My precitive ratio will drop from 16/19 84% to 20/27 74% unless we get some more big quakes in Japan and Taiwan. The thing that's killing my ratio is not the prediction of the quakes, its the magnitude. There is no point in building a simulator unless I can feed it the right data.
In three days time we get Neap tides as the moon nears a right angle with the sun, and the end of any possible lunar effects. If we don't get any significant quakes, then I expect an M5 quake around October 4th and nothing more until December 31st 2009.
#229
The quakes are moving southward. Tilt of the earth perhaps as we go towards winter?
So, updated prediction... Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, and New Zealand area Magnitude 5 and up October 3rd - 5th 2009.
09/25/2009 (6:18 pm)
I'll post the quakes from the last round shortly. We had no 6+ quakes in Japan or Taiwan sept 4th-12th. We did have a few in Indonesia on the 18th (new moon). So if there is any tectonic weakening its within a few days of the new and full moon cycles.The quakes are moving southward. Tilt of the earth perhaps as we go towards winter?
So, updated prediction... Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, and New Zealand area Magnitude 5 and up October 3rd - 5th 2009.
#230
Now look at this
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/09/29/world/international-us-quake-pacific.html?em
You have something going about the predictions but can it be explained to get a peer reviewed publication?
09/30/2009 (9:03 am)
you said "So, updated prediction... Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, and New Zealand area Magnitude 5 and up October 3rd - 5th 2009"Now look at this
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/09/29/world/international-us-quake-pacific.html?em
You have something going about the predictions but can it be explained to get a peer reviewed publication?
#231
My peers are programmers and game developers. I'm sure I could get something published in this circle, but not with the USGS or geologists.
September Tsunami - Times
September Tsunami - Post
Its interesting, the next lunar event is October 4th with the full moon Syzygy. I've noticed that all the major quakes this year occurred with in a few days (before or after) of the full moon syzygy and the lunar eclipses.
This tsunami occurred 4 days before the syzygy and is in my opinion related to the high tides. The earth is titling in its orbit so the gravitational effects are shifting southward, that is why (my opinion) Indonesia is getting more quakes than Japan.
I am about ready for quake sim version 1. It will be a purely a web based java script version. I can calculate perihelion, perigee and syzygy. Based on the time of year I can predict where the most likely place (north or south hemisphere) will be for a quake.
Its not much but its a start. I'll post a link when its ready. Again the prediction is now through October 8th, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesa Papagenia and new zealand. Magnitude 5+ quakes for these regions. The biggest time for the quakes October 3rd - October 5th.
10/01/2009 (9:16 pm)
@Arun,My peers are programmers and game developers. I'm sure I could get something published in this circle, but not with the USGS or geologists.
September Tsunami - Times
September Tsunami - Post
Quote:
SYDNEY (Reuters) - A series of tsunamis smashed into the Pacific island nations of American and Western Samoa killing possibly more than 100 people, destroying villages and injuring hundreds, officials said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Barack Obama declared American Samoa, a U.S. territory, a major disaster and ordered Federal aid to help recovery efforts, with a U.S. C-130 military transport aircraft due to leave Honolulu for the tiny South Pacific island.
New Zealand's government said there were serious concerns about the neighboring island nation of Tonga after a 4-meter (13-foot) wave hit its northern coast. Tongan officials said they feared five people had been killed.
A Pacific-wide tsunami warning was issued after an 8.0 magnitude undersea quake off American Samoa, with reports of a small tsunami reaching New Zealand and rising sea levels in several South Pacific island nations
Its interesting, the next lunar event is October 4th with the full moon Syzygy. I've noticed that all the major quakes this year occurred with in a few days (before or after) of the full moon syzygy and the lunar eclipses.
This tsunami occurred 4 days before the syzygy and is in my opinion related to the high tides. The earth is titling in its orbit so the gravitational effects are shifting southward, that is why (my opinion) Indonesia is getting more quakes than Japan.
I am about ready for quake sim version 1. It will be a purely a web based java script version. I can calculate perihelion, perigee and syzygy. Based on the time of year I can predict where the most likely place (north or south hemisphere) will be for a quake.
Its not much but its a start. I'll post a link when its ready. Again the prediction is now through October 8th, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesa Papagenia and new zealand. Magnitude 5+ quakes for these regions. The biggest time for the quakes October 3rd - October 5th.
#232
Magnitude 6.1
Quake ID: us2009mhcf
Date-Time
* Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36:05 UTC
* Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 01:36:05 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 23.635°N, 121.565°E
Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
Region TAIWAN
10/03/2009 (11:11 pm)
Bingo, Was I right or what? Predicting quakes is a piece of cake.Magnitude 6.1
Quake ID: us2009mhcf
Date-Time
* Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36:05 UTC
* Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 01:36:05 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 23.635°N, 121.565°E
Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
Region TAIWAN
#233
This is the output from Eclipse Quake Simulator 1. The results below are listed from the output of the first earthquake simulator javascript program.
So the major windows are the following dates (table below for where):
The reason Dec 31st will be a bigger than normal event is that we have a lunar eclipse at perihelion ( earth's closest pass to the sun in its orbit). In other words we will have near perfect syzygy with heightened gravitational effects and high tides starting on December 26th 2009.
I'd extend this prediction all the way around the ring of fire to California where I predict M4+ and maybe even Magnitude 5+ quakes. I simply don't know enough about South or Central America to make any predictions there.
So whats the deal with quake cycles every month? Well, the answer is its still left over tectonic weakening effects from the triple eclipse. I have no idea how long this weakening effect will last, but the last round of quakes (Sept 30th - October 5th 2009) with the October 4th Full Moon Syzygy were pretty strong.
2009 Jul 7 9:22 Lunar Eclipse
2009 Jul 22 2:35 Solar Eclipse
2009 Aug 6 0:56 Lunar Eclipse
The major events (Magnitude 6 + quakes) this year in Taiwan and Japan did not start until after July 7th 2009. I noticed that they have repeated with each full moon syzygy after these events, the big stuff occurs 4 or so days before and after each full moon Syzygy event. Before the triple eclipse (July 7th - August 6th) the full moon Syzygy did not have this effect in 2009.
In fact, almost all the major earthquakes this year (around the globe) occurred after the lunar eclipses. See the data here 2009 Lunar Eclipses. The January and February Magnitude 6+ quakes (outside of Japan and Taiwan) seem to occur a few days before and after the two lunar eclipses in January and February.
So this is my first US based prediction with Magnitude 5+ quakes hitting California December 26th 2009 through January 4th 2010. I'd expect one possible Magnitude 6 quake.
What am I basing this on? The quake results of the last full moon syzygy of course.
Where will these quakes be? Same place they were as of Sept 30th - October 8th 2009. They will just be bigger.
Notice how Quake id: ci14519780 fits my 8 day prediction window for the October 4th Full moon syzygy.
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time
* Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 01:16:00 UTC
* Friday, October 02, 2009 at 06:16:00 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 36.391°N, 117.861°W
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances
* 11 km (7 miles) S (174°) from Keeler, CA
The interesting thing to note is that Full Moon syzygys have an 8 day window, where as the lunar eclipses (from this summer) have an 8 day window after the eclipse. So we really should see quakes from December 26th through January 8th 2010
10/07/2009 (12:06 am)
The results of the October prediction are proving correct. I'll publish the final results in a bit after October 8th. But for now, I've input my refined predictions into a javascript file which I will publish at years end once its prediction proves correct.This is the output from Eclipse Quake Simulator 1. The results below are listed from the output of the first earthquake simulator javascript program.
DATE EVENT Strength -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Nov 2 19:15 Full Moon Syzygy Strong Magnitude 5 + (and up) 2009 Nov 16 19:14 New Moon Syzygy Minor Magnitude 3 + 2009 Dec 2 7:32 Full Moon Syzygy Fair Magnitude 4.5 + 2009 Dec 16 12:03 New Moon Syzygy Minor Magnitude 3 + 2009 Dec 31 19:14 Full Moon Syzygy Major Magnitude 6 +
So the major windows are the following dates (table below for where):
DATE EVENT Strength -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Oct 28 - Nov 6 Full Moon Syzygy Strong Magnitude 5 + 2009 Nov 27 - Dec 6 Full Moon Syzygy Fair Magnitude 4.5 + 2009 Dec 26 - Jan 12 Lunar Eclipse Major Magnitude 6 +
The reason Dec 31st will be a bigger than normal event is that we have a lunar eclipse at perihelion ( earth's closest pass to the sun in its orbit). In other words we will have near perfect syzygy with heightened gravitational effects and high tides starting on December 26th 2009.
I'd extend this prediction all the way around the ring of fire to California where I predict M4+ and maybe even Magnitude 5+ quakes. I simply don't know enough about South or Central America to make any predictions there.
So whats the deal with quake cycles every month? Well, the answer is its still left over tectonic weakening effects from the triple eclipse. I have no idea how long this weakening effect will last, but the last round of quakes (Sept 30th - October 5th 2009) with the October 4th Full Moon Syzygy were pretty strong.
2009 Jul 7 9:22 Lunar Eclipse
2009 Jul 22 2:35 Solar Eclipse
2009 Aug 6 0:56 Lunar Eclipse
The major events (Magnitude 6 + quakes) this year in Taiwan and Japan did not start until after July 7th 2009. I noticed that they have repeated with each full moon syzygy after these events, the big stuff occurs 4 or so days before and after each full moon Syzygy event. Before the triple eclipse (July 7th - August 6th) the full moon Syzygy did not have this effect in 2009.
In fact, almost all the major earthquakes this year (around the globe) occurred after the lunar eclipses. See the data here 2009 Lunar Eclipses. The January and February Magnitude 6+ quakes (outside of Japan and Taiwan) seem to occur a few days before and after the two lunar eclipses in January and February.
So this is my first US based prediction with Magnitude 5+ quakes hitting California December 26th 2009 through January 4th 2010. I'd expect one possible Magnitude 6 quake.
What am I basing this on? The quake results of the last full moon syzygy of course.
Where will these quakes be? Same place they were as of Sept 30th - October 8th 2009. They will just be bigger.
Notice how Quake id: ci14519780 fits my 8 day prediction window for the October 4th Full moon syzygy.
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time
* Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 01:16:00 UTC
* Friday, October 02, 2009 at 06:16:00 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 36.391°N, 117.861°W
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances
* 11 km (7 miles) S (174°) from Keeler, CA
The interesting thing to note is that Full Moon syzygys have an 8 day window, where as the lunar eclipses (from this summer) have an 8 day window after the eclipse. So we really should see quakes from December 26th through January 8th 2010
December 26th 2009 through January 8th 2010 (predictions) -------------------------------------------------------- Location Magnitude Probability -------------------------------------------------------- Indonesia 6 + 90% Japan 6 + 80% Tawain 6 + 90% Phillipines 5 + 80% Samoa 6 + 70% New Guinea 5 + 70% New Zealand 5 + 70% California 5 + 80%
#234
10/19/2009 (8:34 pm)
Your research and work is intriguing, I would like to talk to you more, but there is no way to pm or message you it seems...
#235
I am sharing this news, quite scary it happened 16 Oct 2009 around 6:10 pm.
JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia was hit by a strong quake off Java island, in the Sunda Strait, on Friday afternoon, causing buildings to sway in the capital, Jakarta, and sparking panic in some areas as people fled homes and offices.
Indonesia's meteorology agency did not issue a tsunami warning after the quake, and there were no immediate reports of damage.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake had a magnitude of 6.5 and was at a depth of 34.5 miles. The epicenter was 187 km (116 miles) west of the capital Jakarta.
Indonesia is situated in a belt of intense seismic activity known as the "Pacific Ring of Fire."
A powerful quake measuring 7.6 struck off West Sumatra last month, killing more than 1,000 people and destroying hundreds of buildings - end of news
Thank you for these mind blowing informations. This is not anymore hey-hey what!, your predictions is a scientific facts, a true knowledge within comprehensions, keep-up this amazing work
10/20/2009 (5:22 am)
I am sharing this news, quite scary it happened 16 Oct 2009 around 6:10 pm.
JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia was hit by a strong quake off Java island, in the Sunda Strait, on Friday afternoon, causing buildings to sway in the capital, Jakarta, and sparking panic in some areas as people fled homes and offices.
Indonesia's meteorology agency did not issue a tsunami warning after the quake, and there were no immediate reports of damage.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake had a magnitude of 6.5 and was at a depth of 34.5 miles. The epicenter was 187 km (116 miles) west of the capital Jakarta.
Indonesia is situated in a belt of intense seismic activity known as the "Pacific Ring of Fire."
A powerful quake measuring 7.6 struck off West Sumatra last month, killing more than 1,000 people and destroying hundreds of buildings - end of news
Thank you for these mind blowing informations. This is not anymore hey-hey what!, your predictions is a scientific facts, a true knowledge within comprehensions, keep-up this amazing work
#236
The one thing missing is I'm not sure how close to an eclipse (how close to a straight line of earth sun and moon) this full moon will be. I do expect significant quakes on December 2nd.
At the end of the year I'll post the results with graphs for the lunar orbit, full and new moons and eclipses along with all the significant earthquake data. I think you will be impressed. So far I see about an 80% correlation in these regions.
11/14/2009 (3:14 am)
So I ran the numbers, and I missed one important fact. Its the December 2nd 2009 Full moon, one month before the eclipse. The moon reaches Perigee (closest to earth in Orbit) on December 4th, and the earth is close to Perihelion (closest to sun in orbit).The one thing missing is I'm not sure how close to an eclipse (how close to a straight line of earth sun and moon) this full moon will be. I do expect significant quakes on December 2nd.
DATE EVENT Strength -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Oct 28 - Nov 6 Full Moon Syzygy Strong Magnitude 5 + 2009 Nov 27 - Dec 6 Full Moon Syzygy Very Strong Magnitude 5.5 + 2009 Dec 26 - Jan 8 Lunar Eclipse Major Magnitude 6 +
At the end of the year I'll post the results with graphs for the lunar orbit, full and new moons and eclipses along with all the significant earthquake data. I think you will be impressed. So far I see about an 80% correlation in these regions.
#238
Mr. Britton, I couldn't come here for long time already but I am keep listening your new comments via subscription made to this post. I am receiving every comments here from my email and I read them very carefully as well.
I hope, in near future, scientists and researchers can predict exact location and time of earthquakes and let people make necessary preparednesses in time. I remember the 2004 December Tsunami came a few months after I see the movie "The Day After Tomorrow". And now comes "2012" again. People talking and whispering about the topic "The End Of The World" everywhere. I know it is impossible but I can't just don't listen to them.
When can computer models show exact location of the earth quakes and exact time (may be plus or minus 3-4 hours prediction), so that we can have enough time to evacuate people from area of incoming disaster. Hoping and wishing rich people to give a hand to those scientists and researchers working day and night with computers or whatever to get better and better prediction to safe human lives.
Cheers!
11/17/2009 (12:18 pm)
Yes, it's a good question where can those predictions be located!Mr. Britton, I couldn't come here for long time already but I am keep listening your new comments via subscription made to this post. I am receiving every comments here from my email and I read them very carefully as well.
I hope, in near future, scientists and researchers can predict exact location and time of earthquakes and let people make necessary preparednesses in time. I remember the 2004 December Tsunami came a few months after I see the movie "The Day After Tomorrow". And now comes "2012" again. People talking and whispering about the topic "The End Of The World" everywhere. I know it is impossible but I can't just don't listen to them.
When can computer models show exact location of the earth quakes and exact time (may be plus or minus 3-4 hours prediction), so that we can have enough time to evacuate people from area of incoming disaster. Hoping and wishing rich people to give a hand to those scientists and researchers working day and night with computers or whatever to get better and better prediction to safe human lives.
Cheers!
#239
I'll take the easy answer. I'll post the quakes for my M5 prediction for the November 2nd window. My method is simple. Same place where we had the M5 quakes, just bigger quakes on December 2nd and Really Big quakes 28 days later during the prediction window around the lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009.
And Southern Hemisphere
My November 2nd prediction window was 100% accurate in location and magnitude by the way. You will notice I predicted M5 quakes and that is what we got. The cut off date was Nov 6th and I saved the pics from November 7th, because the quakes stopped on that day. Also compare these images to the September 3rd image below and you will notice that many of the small northern quakes near Japan are gone. (hence I say the quakes are shifting southward) The perfect explanation for this is the seasonal southward tilt of the earth. This points the southern part of the earth facing the sun. I also expect that affects the gravitational pull in a very mild, but profound way concerning earthquakes. The cool thing to note is the quakes are almost all in the exact same spot on a 28 day cycle.
Now we will get M5.5 and possibly one or two M6.0 quakes, same spot. The possible M6 will be where the big M5's were in the Nov 2nd window.
An order of magnitude means 10 times more power. I expect the Dec 2 quakes to be 5 times more powerful than the November 2nd quakes. I expect the Dec 31st 2009 quakes to be a minimum of 10 times more powerful than the Nov 2nd quakes. Possible M7 in these regions in the Dec 31st prediction window. The preceding description is long hand for Nov 2nd M5.0, Dec 2nd M5.5, Dec 31st M6.0.
I actually expect significant M4.5+ quakes in California around Dec 31'st in California. What scares me is the Nov 2 quakes actually had near M2 near salt lake City Utah.
I will be at a ski resort near salt lake city Utah during my prediction window, and M2 or M3 near there may be enough to cause an avalanche if the snow is packed. I'm actually watching the avalanche info to keep an eye on it. utahavalanchecenter.org/
2009 Dec 26 - Jan 12
Lunar Eclipse
Major
Magnitude 6 +
I believe enough in this to be somewhat apprehensive about my own safety. Still, I cant be 100% sure about this yet. I have to see the Dec 31st results before I'm ready to actually feed data to a simulator.
11/20/2009 (5:45 am)
Seneq, and U win Nang. That is a very good question. The quakes will be along the tectonic plates and fault lines, mainly in the Pacific Ocean. What I have noticed is that as we go into winter the quakes are shifting more toward the southern hemisphere. We had two or three Magnitude 6 quakes in the past few weeks in South America and none of this magnitude this summer.I'll take the easy answer. I'll post the quakes for my M5 prediction for the November 2nd window. My method is simple. Same place where we had the M5 quakes, just bigger quakes on December 2nd and Really Big quakes 28 days later during the prediction window around the lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009.
And Southern Hemisphere
My November 2nd prediction window was 100% accurate in location and magnitude by the way. You will notice I predicted M5 quakes and that is what we got. The cut off date was Nov 6th and I saved the pics from November 7th, because the quakes stopped on that day. Also compare these images to the September 3rd image below and you will notice that many of the small northern quakes near Japan are gone. (hence I say the quakes are shifting southward) The perfect explanation for this is the seasonal southward tilt of the earth. This points the southern part of the earth facing the sun. I also expect that affects the gravitational pull in a very mild, but profound way concerning earthquakes. The cool thing to note is the quakes are almost all in the exact same spot on a 28 day cycle.
Now we will get M5.5 and possibly one or two M6.0 quakes, same spot. The possible M6 will be where the big M5's were in the Nov 2nd window.
An order of magnitude means 10 times more power. I expect the Dec 2 quakes to be 5 times more powerful than the November 2nd quakes. I expect the Dec 31st 2009 quakes to be a minimum of 10 times more powerful than the Nov 2nd quakes. Possible M7 in these regions in the Dec 31st prediction window. The preceding description is long hand for Nov 2nd M5.0, Dec 2nd M5.5, Dec 31st M6.0.
I actually expect significant M4.5+ quakes in California around Dec 31'st in California. What scares me is the Nov 2 quakes actually had near M2 near salt lake City Utah.
I will be at a ski resort near salt lake city Utah during my prediction window, and M2 or M3 near there may be enough to cause an avalanche if the snow is packed. I'm actually watching the avalanche info to keep an eye on it. utahavalanchecenter.org/
2009 Dec 26 - Jan 12
Lunar Eclipse
Major
Magnitude 6 +
I believe enough in this to be somewhat apprehensive about my own safety. Still, I cant be 100% sure about this yet. I have to see the Dec 31st results before I'm ready to actually feed data to a simulator.
#240
One last side note. I spoke to Jim Berkland this summer about the methods he used to predict earthquakes. He said there were two indicators, one was the moon, the other was animals. I'm pretty sure about the moon, but don't know what to think about the animal evidence. I will let you decide.
He said that certain land and marine animals use Ferrous-Ferric Oxide, a highly magnetic compound found in their brains used for navigation. He said right before a major earthquake you would have whale beaching and lost pets for example.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here. Right before the Magnitude 7.0 earthquake he predicted in California during the world series, there was a whale beaching.
So we can try and emulate Berkland's methods by searching the internet for beachings and lost pets in the regions and during the times we expect a quake. Doing this I discovered we have giant squid beaching near Washington and British Columbia.
B.C. squid beachings baffle scientists October 10th 2009
www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/10/09/bc-tofino-squid-tracking.htm...
If I were to take stock in this method then where we have the beachings we may have a major earthquake here in the North West Americas on Dec 2nd or December 31st 2009. The theory is this, the crustal shifting and pressure causes magnetic distortions that cause the animals to shift course and beach. The pressure is relieved when we have the moon's pull give the gravitational impetus to cause the quake.
Tofino (where the squids are beaching) is marked (A) above
The exact same thing happened in 2004 and 2009 with thee M8.1 and M7.8 quakes in New Zealand. We had whale beachings and then a huge earthquake.
Whale Beachings in Tasmania, Australia and New Zealand on November 30th, 2004. M8.1 Quake December 2004
Whale Beachings in Tasmania, Australia and New Zealand on March 23rd, 2009. M7.8 Quake July 2009
A few months before the Massive Magnitude 8.2 New Zealand Quake in July 2009 we also had whales beaching. www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/02/tasmania-beached-whales-a_n_171072.html
www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/07/15/new.zealand.earthquake/index.html
How Whales Navigate
animals.howstuffworks.com/mammals/whale-info.htm/printable
Some scientists believe that the earth's magnetism may play a role in the beaching of whales. The brains of whales contain magnetite, an ironbearing mineral that can be magnetized. It is believed that irregularities in the earth's magnetic field can cause whales to become disoriented and beach themselves.
11/20/2009 (7:27 am)
Ferrous-Ferric Oxide (FeO·Fe2O3) -- The Animal Connection One last side note. I spoke to Jim Berkland this summer about the methods he used to predict earthquakes. He said there were two indicators, one was the moon, the other was animals. I'm pretty sure about the moon, but don't know what to think about the animal evidence. I will let you decide.
He said that certain land and marine animals use Ferrous-Ferric Oxide, a highly magnetic compound found in their brains used for navigation. He said right before a major earthquake you would have whale beaching and lost pets for example.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here. Right before the Magnitude 7.0 earthquake he predicted in California during the world series, there was a whale beaching.
So we can try and emulate Berkland's methods by searching the internet for beachings and lost pets in the regions and during the times we expect a quake. Doing this I discovered we have giant squid beaching near Washington and British Columbia.
B.C. squid beachings baffle scientists October 10th 2009
www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/10/09/bc-tofino-squid-tracking.htm...
Quote:
Scientists have begun attaching tracking devices to squid off the coast of Vancouver Island to find out why the marine animals have wandered so far from their traditional territory.
They also hope to find out why the squid have been beaching themselves and dying by the hundreds this summer near the town of Tofino on the island's west coast.
If I were to take stock in this method then where we have the beachings we may have a major earthquake here in the North West Americas on Dec 2nd or December 31st 2009. The theory is this, the crustal shifting and pressure causes magnetic distortions that cause the animals to shift course and beach. The pressure is relieved when we have the moon's pull give the gravitational impetus to cause the quake.
Tofino (where the squids are beaching) is marked (A) above
The exact same thing happened in 2004 and 2009 with thee M8.1 and M7.8 quakes in New Zealand. We had whale beachings and then a huge earthquake.
Whale Beachings in Tasmania, Australia and New Zealand on November 30th, 2004. M8.1 Quake December 2004
Quote:
One month before the quake Reuters reported that during a 3 day span 169 whales and dolphins beached themselves in Tasmania, an island of the southern coast of mainland Australia and in New Zealand.
On December 24th 2004 there was a magnitude 8.1 earthquake more than 500 miles southeast of Tasmania near New Zealand, with a subsequent aftershock 6.1 a little later in the morning that same day.
Whale Beachings in Tasmania, Australia and New Zealand on March 23rd, 2009. M7.8 Quake July 2009
A few months before the Massive Magnitude 8.2 New Zealand Quake in July 2009 we also had whales beaching. www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/02/tasmania-beached-whales-a_n_171072.html
www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/07/15/new.zealand.earthquake/index.html
Quote:
The 194 pilot whales and half a dozen bottlenose dolphins became stranded on Naracoopa Beach on Tasmania state's King Island on Sunday evening March 2nd 2009 -- the fourth beaching incident in recent months in Tasmania.
On Wednesday July 15th 2009 the 7.8-magnitude quake generated a small, 6-inch tsunami in Jackson Bay, on the west coast of South Island and a 2-inch tsunami reported in the Tasman Sea to the north of the epicenter, according to the the U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
Twenty minutes after the tremor, a 5.8-magnitude aftershock struck the same region, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, which measures earthquakes around the world.
How Whales Navigate
animals.howstuffworks.com/mammals/whale-info.htm/printable
Some scientists believe that the earth's magnetism may play a role in the beaching of whales. The brains of whales contain magnetite, an ironbearing mineral that can be magnetized. It is believed that irregularities in the earth's magnetic field can cause whales to become disoriented and beach themselves.
Torque Owner Britton LaRoche
I don't know enough about the regions listed outside my circles to make a prediction, because I have not studied these regions. Draw your own conclusions on this, but here are the really significant earthquakes during the August lunar eclipse window. Notice that I correctly predicted 5 of these quakes in time location and magnitude for Japan and Taiwan (and I was only investigating these regions). The odds of me doing this are so high against me being correct, current scientific thinking assumes its impossible.
My theory holds well for Taiwan and Japan. I'd assume we could begin to apply this to other locations in the same region, but I'm uncertain of that assumption.