Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 585 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
View Stats
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
"Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
#202
What the graph below shows is the cumulative effects of the gravitational events. The red line shows the cumulative effects of all the pulling and pushing of larger than normal gravitational and tidal forces. The last event the "coup de grace" occurs on August 19th with the next lunar perigee (when the moon is closest to earth). The moon is also very close to the sun in its location in the sky, although there is not a Syzygy, they are very close together at the lunar perigee. The tides will be larger than normal, and will follow fairly closely the path of the july 22nd eclipse. This next perigee will continue the tectonic weakening laid down by the total solar eclipse.
The earthquakes I've correctly predicted with my cumulative force theory are posted above. Notice how the theory shows how the force builds after the lunar events (1-4). This is what I noticed on July 28th, and why I posted my force graph. It turned out to be an accurate prediction of the August 9th -12th quakes. All that remains is the 4th event on August 19th. If my model is correct, then the peak of the force will be on August 22nd 2009.
I predict M6 and M7 quakes August 17th through August 25th, with a strong possibility of an M8 on August 22nd Note: the force model does show an uptick equal to August 9th again on August 16th, we may have quakes then too.
View Stats
08/17/2009 (9:37 am)
Well the page rolled, so its time to summarize again. To summarize we had 3 events, and the quakes got bigger with each event. We had a lunar eclipse on July 7th, We had a total solar eclipse only July 22nd, and we had another lunar eclipse on August 6th.What the graph below shows is the cumulative effects of the gravitational events. The red line shows the cumulative effects of all the pulling and pushing of larger than normal gravitational and tidal forces. The last event the "coup de grace" occurs on August 19th with the next lunar perigee (when the moon is closest to earth). The moon is also very close to the sun in its location in the sky, although there is not a Syzygy, they are very close together at the lunar perigee. The tides will be larger than normal, and will follow fairly closely the path of the july 22nd eclipse. This next perigee will continue the tectonic weakening laid down by the total solar eclipse.
The earthquakes I've correctly predicted with my cumulative force theory are posted above. Notice how the theory shows how the force builds after the lunar events (1-4). This is what I noticed on July 28th, and why I posted my force graph. It turned out to be an accurate prediction of the August 9th -12th quakes. All that remains is the 4th event on August 19th. If my model is correct, then the peak of the force will be on August 22nd 2009.
I predict M6 and M7 quakes August 17th through August 25th, with a strong possibility of an M8 on August 22nd Note: the force model does show an uptick equal to August 9th again on August 16th, we may have quakes then too.
#203
Magnitude 6.7 USGS Quake ID us2009kjcq
Date-Time Monday, August 17, 2009 at 00:05:47 UTC
Location 23.507°N, 123.594°E
Region SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Magnitude 6.4 USGS Quake ID us2009kkay
Date-Time Monday, August 17, 2009 at 10:10:55 UTC
Location 23.398°N, 123.547°E
Region SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Images of the correct results of only today's prediction.
Look at the power of this theory that so far has had 100% accuracy! Including predicting when we do not have earthquakes, it even predicts the gaps between the quakes! Again, we had absolutely zero M6 quakes in Taiwan and Japan before July of this year.
As they say "gravity is the weakest of the forces, but it is always at work." It never rests, the moon passes near the sun every 29.5 days. But, the direct alignments with the eclipses are rare, total solar eclipses (when the moon is at perigee, closest to earth) is even more rare. The rarest of all, is the triple eclipse, one solar eclipse sandwiched between two lunar eclipses. That is what we just had, and what makes me think we are seeing the height of the effects these events can have on earthquakes.
Perigee and Apogee
A "total" solar eclipse means that the moon is at perigee, its closest approach in orbit to earth. That means that the moon is close enough to completely block the light of the sun. Contrast that with an "annular" solar eclipse when the moon is at apogee. You can still see the outline of the sun around the edges of the eclipse. The difference gravitationally speaking is impressive. The moon has much higher tides at perigee. So a total solar eclipse has a greater gravitational effect than an annular.
(these numbers change from month to month, this was the Jan 2009 data)
Perihelion and Aphelion
There is only one event that could be greater than the one we just had. When the Earth is as close to the sun in its orbit as it could be its called Perihelion. The earth gets about 3,106,553 miles (4,999,512 Kilometers) closer at Perihelion. The distances are 91,405,436 miles from Sun at perihelion and 94,511,989 at aphelion.
This July 22nd 2009 Eclipse was near aphelion. We did not have the greatest solar pull we could have. So a total solar eclipse between two lunar eclipses at perihelion would be the ultimate test of the theory. We would have a straight line between the earth sun and moon when all 3 celestial objects are as close as possible. Since the force of gravity is determined by the mass of the object and the cubed root of the distance, the gravitational force would be at maximum during this event. But, this last eclipse was not a bad test, as the moons pull (and its effect on the tides) is over two times greater than the suns pull.
Again, I echo the prediction I made last week. I predict M6 and M7 quakes August 17th through August 25th, with a strong possibility of an M8 on August 22nd in Japan! No one seems to listen until we get the M7 + quakes in a populated region. I think the tokai region of Japan is in grave danger.
I freely give the rights to any reporting agency or blogger the rights to use any and all text and images I've made on this post. If you know anyone in the news reporting field send them this link.
08/17/2009 (9:39 am)
So we did get an M6 quake as predicted in Japan on the 17th... (the text above was copied from an original post August 10th). The prediction holds out to be true as I wake up this morning I find the following quakes. These islands are right next to Taiwan where I predicted we would have earthquakes.Magnitude 6.7 USGS Quake ID us2009kjcq
Date-Time Monday, August 17, 2009 at 00:05:47 UTC
Location 23.507°N, 123.594°E
Region SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Magnitude 6.4 USGS Quake ID us2009kkay
Date-Time Monday, August 17, 2009 at 10:10:55 UTC
Location 23.398°N, 123.547°E
Region SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Images of the correct results of only today's prediction.
Look at the power of this theory that so far has had 100% accuracy! Including predicting when we do not have earthquakes, it even predicts the gaps between the quakes! Again, we had absolutely zero M6 quakes in Taiwan and Japan before July of this year.
UTC DATE-TIME LAT LON ID Mag Region --------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009/07/22 14:51:02 33.07N 134.26E us2009jja2 4.7 SHIKOKU, JAPAN 2009/07/26 03:24:39 20.050 145.851 us2009jnaf 4.6 Iwo Jima Islands 2009/07/26 06:10:58 23.430 121.50E us2009jnak 5.1 TAIWAN 2009/08/09 10:55:55 33.12N 138.02E us2009kcaz 7.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/10 20:07:07 34.77N 138.27E us2009kdb4 6.1 HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/13 22:48:51 32.81N 140.38E us2009kfcp 6.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/17 00:05:47 23.50N, 123.59E us2009kjcq 6.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/17 10:10:55 23.39N, 123.54E us2009kkay 6.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan)
As they say "gravity is the weakest of the forces, but it is always at work." It never rests, the moon passes near the sun every 29.5 days. But, the direct alignments with the eclipses are rare, total solar eclipses (when the moon is at perigee, closest to earth) is even more rare. The rarest of all, is the triple eclipse, one solar eclipse sandwiched between two lunar eclipses. That is what we just had, and what makes me think we are seeing the height of the effects these events can have on earthquakes.
Perigee and Apogee
A "total" solar eclipse means that the moon is at perigee, its closest approach in orbit to earth. That means that the moon is close enough to completely block the light of the sun. Contrast that with an "annular" solar eclipse when the moon is at apogee. You can still see the outline of the sun around the edges of the eclipse. The difference gravitationally speaking is impressive. The moon has much higher tides at perigee. So a total solar eclipse has a greater gravitational effect than an annular.
Apogee: 252,348 Miles (406,115 Kilometers) Perigee: 222,140 Miles (357,500 Kilometers) Delta: 30,208 Miles (48,615 Kilometers)
(these numbers change from month to month, this was the Jan 2009 data)
Perihelion and Aphelion
There is only one event that could be greater than the one we just had. When the Earth is as close to the sun in its orbit as it could be its called Perihelion. The earth gets about 3,106,553 miles (4,999,512 Kilometers) closer at Perihelion. The distances are 91,405,436 miles from Sun at perihelion and 94,511,989 at aphelion.
Aphelion: 94,511,989 Miles (152,102,302 Kilometers) Perihelion: 91,405,436 Miles (147,102,790 Kilometers) Delta: 3,106,553 Miles (4,999,512 Kilometers)
This July 22nd 2009 Eclipse was near aphelion. We did not have the greatest solar pull we could have. So a total solar eclipse between two lunar eclipses at perihelion would be the ultimate test of the theory. We would have a straight line between the earth sun and moon when all 3 celestial objects are as close as possible. Since the force of gravity is determined by the mass of the object and the cubed root of the distance, the gravitational force would be at maximum during this event. But, this last eclipse was not a bad test, as the moons pull (and its effect on the tides) is over two times greater than the suns pull.
Again, I echo the prediction I made last week. I predict M6 and M7 quakes August 17th through August 25th, with a strong possibility of an M8 on August 22nd in Japan! No one seems to listen until we get the M7 + quakes in a populated region. I think the tokai region of Japan is in grave danger.
I freely give the rights to any reporting agency or blogger the rights to use any and all text and images I've made on this post. If you know anyone in the news reporting field send them this link.
#204
I sent an email to Aaron, to see if he might take this blog post into consideration. I think at the very least this theory will generate a lot of interest and discussion.
Another article here I expect more and bigger quakes all this week. Third article here. It looks as if the news is beginning to see a pattern, smaller M6 quakes are getting attention because there are so many of them recently, yet another article here. Image from that article below.
Japan's seismologists are constantly monitoring the region.
An earlier article (last week) from stars and stripes has a great summary here. www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=64192
I wonder what Ozaki would think about this theory, that seems to have predicted the last several earthquakes in Japan.
08/17/2009 (4:11 pm)
Here is a related news article. www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a742hAIvhZfwQuote:
By Aaron Sheldrick
Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- A 6.5-magnitude earthquake struck near Japan’s Okinawa islands, the second strong temblor in the area today. There were no reports of damage and a tsunami warning was withdrawn.
The earthquake struck at 7:11 p.m. local time at a depth of 10 kilometers (6 miles), about 149 kilometers south of the island of Ishigaki to the east of Taiwan, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.
...
A magnitude-6.8 earthquake struck the area at 9:06 a.m. today, causing no damage. The latest quake is the fifth temblor higher than magnitude 6 to hit Japan since Aug. 9.
A magnitude-6.5 earthquake to the southwest of Tokyo on Aug. 11 left one person dead, 151 injured and damaged more than 6,200 houses, according to Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency. A magnitude-6.6 quake struck south of the Japanese capital on Aug. 11 and one of magnitude 6.9 on Aug. 9.
I sent an email to Aaron, to see if he might take this blog post into consideration. I think at the very least this theory will generate a lot of interest and discussion.
Another article here I expect more and bigger quakes all this week. Third article here. It looks as if the news is beginning to see a pattern, smaller M6 quakes are getting attention because there are so many of them recently, yet another article here. Image from that article below.
Japan's seismologists are constantly monitoring the region.
An earlier article (last week) from stars and stripes has a great summary here. www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=64192
Quote:
While Ozaki said the three quakes likely are not indicators of a bigger one to come, neither did they relieve tectonic plate pressure that could delay a catastrophic quake.
“The jolt does not mean that the pressure, meaning the seismic energy that has been accumulated, was let out,” he said.
The expected great Tokai Earthquake and the Metropolitan Epicentral Earthquake, named for their likely locales in the greater Kanto region of Tokyo, could happen any day and at any time, he said. For more than three decades, earthquake experts and government officials have been predicting and preparing for such catastrophic quakes in central Japan.
Takeshi Matsumoto, professor of marine geophysics at the University of the Ryukyus, said that earthquake occurred in Shizuoka on Tuesday released one-thirtieth of the energy of the expected Tokai Earthquake.
In Tokyo, the last major killer earthquake occurred in 1923. The Great Kanto Earthquake, with a magnitude 7.9, claimed more than 140,000 lives and damaged and burned more than 680,000 homes and buildings.
I wonder what Ozaki would think about this theory, that seems to have predicted the last several earthquakes in Japan.
#205
People refer to the Kanto quake, in 1923 as really bad. It is officially listed a 7.9 magnitude on the Richter scale by the USGS. The Tokai quake is about 8.5 magnitude. So remember when looking at these images that its a much smaller quake that the tokai quake. I wish they had photographs of the 1854 tokai quake but they don't.
The M7.9 Kanto quake occurred 9 days before the Total Solar eclipse as the moon was approaching perigee. It was only 5 days after the last Syzygy on Aug 26 1923 when the earth sun and moon were in a straight line. The partial lunar eclipse on Aug 26th was over Asia, Australia and the Americas. So, it passed right over Japan.
Map of the Tokai and Kanto Regions of Japan.
In September 1923, a magnitude 7.9 quake, known as the Great Kanto earthquake, destroyed much of Tokyo and left 140,000 dead.
A view of the destruction in Yokohama
Desolation of Nihonbashi and Kanda seen from the Roof of Dai-ichi Sogo Building, Kyōbashi.
This is the kind of thing I think we may see this week (before August 25th 2009) in the tokai region of Japan. I hope I'm wrong. The one good thing Japan has going for it right now, is my cumulative force theory is great at predicting M6 and M7 quakes, but terrible at predicting M8 quakes.
1923 Lunar Events - Applying the theory
Perigee and Apogee Calculator
1921-1930 Lunar Calendar
Aug 16 09:44:00 Perigee -- 367614 km
Aug 26 10:39:52 Partial Lunar eclipse -- e Asia, Australia, Americas
Aug 31 11:05:00 Apogee -- 405267 km
Sept 1 11:58:44 am JST Kanto Quake -- M7.9
Sept 10 20:47:00 Total Solar Eclipse -- Pacific Ocean, Americas
Sept 12 22:12:00 Perigee -- 362553 Km
The 1923 Great Kantō earthquake struck the Kantō plain on the Japanese main island of Honshū at 11:58:44 am JST on September 1, 1923. Varied accounts hold that the duration of the earthquake was between 4 and 10 minutes. According to my theory an M6 quake would have followed a few days after the Sept 12th Total solar eclipse, if at all. I would not have predicted the Kanto quake or any of the previous tokai quakes with my cumulative force theory.
08/17/2009 (6:16 pm)
Flash back to 1923 -- Kanto quake People refer to the Kanto quake, in 1923 as really bad. It is officially listed a 7.9 magnitude on the Richter scale by the USGS. The Tokai quake is about 8.5 magnitude. So remember when looking at these images that its a much smaller quake that the tokai quake. I wish they had photographs of the 1854 tokai quake but they don't.
The M7.9 Kanto quake occurred 9 days before the Total Solar eclipse as the moon was approaching perigee. It was only 5 days after the last Syzygy on Aug 26 1923 when the earth sun and moon were in a straight line. The partial lunar eclipse on Aug 26th was over Asia, Australia and the Americas. So, it passed right over Japan.
Map of the Tokai and Kanto Regions of Japan.
In September 1923, a magnitude 7.9 quake, known as the Great Kanto earthquake, destroyed much of Tokyo and left 140,000 dead.
A view of the destruction in Yokohama
Desolation of Nihonbashi and Kanda seen from the Roof of Dai-ichi Sogo Building, Kyōbashi.
This is the kind of thing I think we may see this week (before August 25th 2009) in the tokai region of Japan. I hope I'm wrong. The one good thing Japan has going for it right now, is my cumulative force theory is great at predicting M6 and M7 quakes, but terrible at predicting M8 quakes.
1923 Lunar Events - Applying the theory
Perigee and Apogee Calculator
1921-1930 Lunar Calendar
Aug 16 09:44:00 Perigee -- 367614 km
Aug 26 10:39:52 Partial Lunar eclipse -- e Asia, Australia, Americas
Aug 31 11:05:00 Apogee -- 405267 km
Sept 1 11:58:44 am JST Kanto Quake -- M7.9
Sept 10 20:47:00 Total Solar Eclipse -- Pacific Ocean, Americas
Sept 12 22:12:00 Perigee -- 362553 Km
The 1923 Great Kantō earthquake struck the Kantō plain on the Japanese main island of Honshū at 11:58:44 am JST on September 1, 1923. Varied accounts hold that the duration of the earthquake was between 4 and 10 minutes. According to my theory an M6 quake would have followed a few days after the Sept 12th Total solar eclipse, if at all. I would not have predicted the Kanto quake or any of the previous tokai quakes with my cumulative force theory.
#206
The next two lunar events are as follows:
2009 Aug 19 04:54 - Lunar Perigee 359641 km
2009 Aug 20 10:02 - New Moon Syzygy.
08/17/2009 (9:02 pm)
As I do more research, the closer I get to 2009 the more correlations I find with the M6 and M7 quakes. I've found plenty of correlative data for the past 10 years, but very little in the early 1900s. I don't think we are getting more quakes as time passes, I think we are getting a better record of what happened and when. The next two lunar events are as follows:
2009 Aug 19 04:54 - Lunar Perigee 359641 km
2009 Aug 20 10:02 - New Moon Syzygy.
#207
Magnitude 5.8 (us2009klba)
Date-Time Tuesday, August 18, 2009 at 13:17:34 UTC
Location 23.486°N, 123.508°E
Depth 4.2 km (2.6 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Magnitude 4.7 (us2009kkcj)
Date-Time Monday, August 17, 2009 at 21:58:50 UTC
Tuesday, August 18, 2009 at 06:58:50 AM at epicenter
Location 36.817°N, 139.969°E
Depth 41 km (25.5 miles)
Region EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
The M5.8 was a surface quake, but the M4.7 Japanese mainland quake was deep. My cumulative force graph is off. The actual cumulative force reducing friction in the tectonic plates appears much lower than anticipated, which is a good thing. Looks like we may be safe, expecting M6 and M7 quakes on the 22nd.
Don't let the drop in magnitude fool you. If there is anything to this theory, then we will see bigger quakes for sure after the perigee and new moon syzygy on August 19th and 20th. The fact that we are getting quakes this early means that the August 22nd through 25th quakes will indeed be large.
To further the idea that the cumulative force is still on we just got a M6.0 quake in Fiji. Its outside of my prediction zone so I'm not listing it as one of the ones I predicted. So far this theory has accurately predicted 10 quakes, including the gaps between them. I'm certain it will prove correct for the remainder of the prediction window through August 25th.
08/18/2009 (6:38 pm)
These two quakes remind me of the July 22nd - July 28th quakesMagnitude 5.8 (us2009klba)
Date-Time Tuesday, August 18, 2009 at 13:17:34 UTC
Location 23.486°N, 123.508°E
Depth 4.2 km (2.6 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Magnitude 4.7 (us2009kkcj)
Date-Time Monday, August 17, 2009 at 21:58:50 UTC
Tuesday, August 18, 2009 at 06:58:50 AM at epicenter
Location 36.817°N, 139.969°E
Depth 41 km (25.5 miles)
Region EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
The M5.8 was a surface quake, but the M4.7 Japanese mainland quake was deep. My cumulative force graph is off. The actual cumulative force reducing friction in the tectonic plates appears much lower than anticipated, which is a good thing. Looks like we may be safe, expecting M6 and M7 quakes on the 22nd.
UTC DATE-TIME LAT LON ID Mag Region --------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009/07/22 14:51:02 33.07N 134.26E us2009jja2 4.7 SHIKOKU, JAPAN 2009/07/26 03:24:39 20.050 145.851 us2009jnaf 4.6 Iwo Jima Islands 2009/07/26 06:10:58 23.430 121.50E us2009jnak 5.1 TAIWAN 2009/08/09 10:55:55 33.12N 138.02E us2009kcaz 7.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/10 20:07:07 34.77N 138.27E us2009kdb4 6.1 HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/13 22:48:51 32.81N 140.38E us2009kfcp 6.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/17 00:05:47 23.50N, 123.59E us2009kjcq 6.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/17 10:10:55 23.39N, 123.54E us2009kkay 6.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/17 21:58:50 36.81N, 139.96E us2009kkcj 4.7 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/18 21:58:50 23.48N, 123.50E us2009klba 5.8 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan)
Don't let the drop in magnitude fool you. If there is anything to this theory, then we will see bigger quakes for sure after the perigee and new moon syzygy on August 19th and 20th. The fact that we are getting quakes this early means that the August 22nd through 25th quakes will indeed be large.
To further the idea that the cumulative force is still on we just got a M6.0 quake in Fiji. Its outside of my prediction zone so I'm not listing it as one of the ones I predicted. So far this theory has accurately predicted 10 quakes, including the gaps between them. I'm certain it will prove correct for the remainder of the prediction window through August 25th.
#208
08/19/2009 (6:42 pm)
Interesting, just wondering how much force will be exerted in 2012 when the planets align along the center of our galaxy?[well at least 5 major ones in our solar system]...hmm....and the increasing number of quakes as this date approaches?
#209
So I'm guessing a bunch if a bunch of sumo wrestlers in Japan all jumped at the same time, they would have a bigger effect (and a greater chance of causing an earthquake) than the 2012 alignment of the planets.
More data here:
staff.washington.edu/aganse/europa/tides/tides.html
If there is a disaster in 2012, I'd be more inclined to believe it would be in the form of an economic disaster than a natural disaster. I don't think the alignment of the planets could have an effect other than to instill fear in the general population.
08/20/2009 (1:56 am)
@Rex, well that is an interesting question. The biggest gravitational pull is the from the moon moon followed by the sun. The moons pull is about 2.21 times greater than the sun. The next biggest pull is from Venus. The tidal pull from Venus is about 10,000 times smaller that the sun. The gravitational pull from the rest of the planets is much smaller, infinitesimally smaller than the pull of Venus. If you add them together they don't add up to much more than the pull of Venus by itself.So I'm guessing a bunch if a bunch of sumo wrestlers in Japan all jumped at the same time, they would have a bigger effect (and a greater chance of causing an earthquake) than the 2012 alignment of the planets.
Quote:
We see that the tidal pull from the Moon is the strongest, followed by the Sun which has half the effect of the Moon - it's very much larger than the Moon but farther away, and tidal acceleration falls off strongly with distance. The rest of the planets' effects are infinitesimal in comparison; note the next strongest effect after the Sun's is the tidal acceleration due to Venus, which is 10000 times smaller.
More data here:
staff.washington.edu/aganse/europa/tides/tides.html
If there is a disaster in 2012, I'd be more inclined to believe it would be in the form of an economic disaster than a natural disaster. I don't think the alignment of the planets could have an effect other than to instill fear in the general population.
#210
Last one to note is this one:
Magnitude 5.1 (us2009klcy)
Date-Time Tuesday, August 18, 2009 at 23:47:58 UTC
Location 23.425°N, 123.284°E
Depth 24.8 km (15.4 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
That brings the total to 11 quakes in the three circles.
08/20/2009 (2:25 am)
The 08/19/2009 quake list was a dud. I expected a bigger quake today in these regions than yesterday. This means that if we get anything it will be a sleeper effect. The next Syzygy occurs in about 6 hours.Last one to note is this one:
Magnitude 5.1 (us2009klcy)
Date-Time Tuesday, August 18, 2009 at 23:47:58 UTC
Location 23.425°N, 123.284°E
Depth 24.8 km (15.4 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
That brings the total to 11 quakes in the three circles.
#211
Earthquake Hierarchy
1. Worst case, Total Solar Eclipse in January. This eclipse has both the sun and moon at their closest approach in orbit to earth (perigee and perihelion) and the strongest gravitational pull. Range M6 -M7, possible M8
2. Second worst case: Lunar eclipses at perigee. Lunar eclipses seem to have a greater effect than total solar eclipses. Just look at the data, July 7th Lunar eclipse and the quakes that follow, The august 6th lunar eclipse and the quakes that followed. Range M6 - M7, possible M8
3. Partial / Total Solar Eclipses Early in the year (Earth near Perihelion) M5 - M6.9
4. Total Solar eclipses in the summer. (Earth is farthest away from the sun) M4 - M5.5
5. Any lunar Syzygy, new moon or full moon. M3 - M4.5
I'm just a programmer, and using the theory that the gravitational pull of the sun and moon can cause a quake I correctly predicted 14 earthquakes thta range in magnitude from 4.6 to 7.1 on the Richter scale. I missed on two cases; no M8, and I went outside my region to predict a quake in china that did not occur. So my success ratio with this method is 14/16 or 87%.
Top that. You can, by the way. I think this gravitational pull theory is correct. Each region of the world is different. A little study and the NASA website for eclipses and you too can accurately predict earthquakes.
Nasa Solar Eclipses
Nasa Lunar Eclipses
Lunar Apogee and Perigee Calculator
For example, I'm pretty sure our next event for earthquakes is the 2009 Dec 31 Partial lunar eclipse (during a full moon) over Europe, Africa, Asia, Austrailia. It will follow the tectonic plates all the way down. I predict M4 through M5.5 quakes in Taiwan, Japan and Indonesia between Dec 31 2009 and Jan 5th 2010. I'd also expect quakes in Europe, probably south of Italy, or near Cyprus and turkey since the Eurasian plate runs along there. The moon is not at perigee, so the gravitational forces are weaker and the quakes will be lower. We might get close to a M6 in Japan.
The annular eclipse on Jan 15th 2010 may also cause M5 quakes. Its low on the quake hierarchy, but does follow on the heels of the Jan 5th lunar eclipse. Its close to the same location as the lunar eclipse. Japan and Taiwan are at the edge. The moon swoops low from central Africa then back up again near china. So Indonesia and china could get some M5 quakes on or shortly after Jan 15th.
08/26/2009 (11:54 am)
I don't think my cumulative force theory is completely correct. From looking at historical data, I think that the earthquakes follow a hierarchy, the cumulative effect is only for a few days, not weeks. I have a new hierarchy of quakes theory totally based on gravitational pull. Strangely enough, after looking at the data lunar eclipses seem to have a greater effect than solar eclipses. The M9 in 2004 that caused the tsunami was right after a lunar eclipse for example.Earthquake Hierarchy
1. Worst case, Total Solar Eclipse in January. This eclipse has both the sun and moon at their closest approach in orbit to earth (perigee and perihelion) and the strongest gravitational pull. Range M6 -M7, possible M8
2. Second worst case: Lunar eclipses at perigee. Lunar eclipses seem to have a greater effect than total solar eclipses. Just look at the data, July 7th Lunar eclipse and the quakes that follow, The august 6th lunar eclipse and the quakes that followed. Range M6 - M7, possible M8
3. Partial / Total Solar Eclipses Early in the year (Earth near Perihelion) M5 - M6.9
4. Total Solar eclipses in the summer. (Earth is farthest away from the sun) M4 - M5.5
5. Any lunar Syzygy, new moon or full moon. M3 - M4.5
UTC DATE-TIME LAT LON ID Mag Region --------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009/07/22 14:51:02 33.07N, 134.26E us2009jja2 4.7 SHIKOKU, JAPAN 2009/07/26 03:24:39 20.050, 145.851 us2009jnaf 4.6 Iwo Jima Islands 2009/07/26 06:10:58 23.430, 121.50E us2009jnak 5.1 TAIWAN 2009/08/09 10:55:55 33.12N, 138.02E us2009kcaz 7.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/10 20:07:07 34.77N, 138.27E us2009kdb4 6.1 HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/13 22:48:51 32.81N, 140.38E us2009kfcp 6.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/17 00:05:47 23.50N, 123.59E us2009kjcq 6.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/17 10:10:55 23.39N, 123.54E us2009kkay 6.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/17 21:58:50 36.81N, 139.96E us2009kkcj 4.7 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/18 21:58:50 23.48N, 123.50E us2009klba 5.8 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/18 23:47:58 23.42N, 123.28E us2009klcy 5.1 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/21 20:57:42 22.26N, 120.46E us2009kpb6 4.9 Taiwan 2009/08/23 08:25:25 20.08N, 121.46E us2009kra3 5.0 BATAN ISLANDS, PH (Taiwan) 2009/08/24 05:26:16 40.99N, 140.09E us2009ksak 5.4 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
I'm just a programmer, and using the theory that the gravitational pull of the sun and moon can cause a quake I correctly predicted 14 earthquakes thta range in magnitude from 4.6 to 7.1 on the Richter scale. I missed on two cases; no M8, and I went outside my region to predict a quake in china that did not occur. So my success ratio with this method is 14/16 or 87%.
Top that. You can, by the way. I think this gravitational pull theory is correct. Each region of the world is different. A little study and the NASA website for eclipses and you too can accurately predict earthquakes.
Nasa Solar Eclipses
Nasa Lunar Eclipses
Lunar Apogee and Perigee Calculator
For example, I'm pretty sure our next event for earthquakes is the 2009 Dec 31 Partial lunar eclipse (during a full moon) over Europe, Africa, Asia, Austrailia. It will follow the tectonic plates all the way down. I predict M4 through M5.5 quakes in Taiwan, Japan and Indonesia between Dec 31 2009 and Jan 5th 2010. I'd also expect quakes in Europe, probably south of Italy, or near Cyprus and turkey since the Eurasian plate runs along there. The moon is not at perigee, so the gravitational forces are weaker and the quakes will be lower. We might get close to a M6 in Japan.
The annular eclipse on Jan 15th 2010 may also cause M5 quakes. Its low on the quake hierarchy, but does follow on the heels of the Jan 5th lunar eclipse. Its close to the same location as the lunar eclipse. Japan and Taiwan are at the edge. The moon swoops low from central Africa then back up again near china. So Indonesia and china could get some M5 quakes on or shortly after Jan 15th.
#212
Notice how the effect goes from one side of the water globe to the other in a delayed effect. I think the same thing happens on earth with the lunar pulls from Syzygy. The epipodial effect could explain why we get quakes on the opposite side of the earth, or a ripple effect along the way.
The solid earth does deform about 1 meter during an eclipse. Its pulled and stretched. I think a combination of the measure of pressure force that builds up over time and the friction force are only part of the equation. Once we add in the tidal forces, the distortion and fluid dynamics we will have an accurate model. All of this will of course be part of a computer simulation.
08/26/2009 (1:00 pm)
Why is a lunar eclipse worse than a solar eclipse? Take a look at the following NASA experiment done on water in zero gravity.Notice how the effect goes from one side of the water globe to the other in a delayed effect. I think the same thing happens on earth with the lunar pulls from Syzygy. The epipodial effect could explain why we get quakes on the opposite side of the earth, or a ripple effect along the way.
The solid earth does deform about 1 meter during an eclipse. Its pulled and stretched. I think a combination of the measure of pressure force that builds up over time and the friction force are only part of the equation. Once we add in the tidal forces, the distortion and fluid dynamics we will have an accurate model. All of this will of course be part of a computer simulation.
#213
translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.e-pisco.jp%2Fr_ion%2Fattention...
feww.wordpress.com/2009/05/18/earthquake-forecast-tokyo-japan/#comment-3998
08/27/2009 (10:36 am)
ePisco and Feww expect M7 - M8 until end of Sept.translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.e-pisco.jp%2Fr_ion%2Fattention...
feww.wordpress.com/2009/05/18/earthquake-forecast-tokyo-japan/#comment-3998
#214
I don't think the lunar tides are everything causing quakes. But, I think its one of the major causes. The vast majority of the tectonic plates are deep under the ocean. I think they are down there (beneath the ocean) because the subducted plates are sinking into the crust. That's the whole reason we have water there, it (the tectonic subduction) forms the deep pits and trenches that make our oceans. I'd say tectonic subduction actually created our oceans on this planet. Naturally the higher tides add pressure to the plates. I'm convinced the lunar / tectonic theory is correct.
08/30/2009 (12:20 pm)
@sven, Looks like ePisco and Feww are right, we just got two M6.8 quakes one near Samoa and another near Taiwan. My theory; however, is done until a few days before Dec 31st 2009, as predicted above.I don't think the lunar tides are everything causing quakes. But, I think its one of the major causes. The vast majority of the tectonic plates are deep under the ocean. I think they are down there (beneath the ocean) because the subducted plates are sinking into the crust. That's the whole reason we have water there, it (the tectonic subduction) forms the deep pits and trenches that make our oceans. I'd say tectonic subduction actually created our oceans on this planet. Naturally the higher tides add pressure to the plates. I'm convinced the lunar / tectonic theory is correct.
#215
I have been watching you site this summer and am impressed with the lodgic and restrain you've shown through this process.
My background is electrical and instrumentation, in the oilfields of Western Canada, and I appreciate the disipline you have applied.
I explained to a few of my fellow workers about you programming background and taking up geo tectonics, and astrophysics, reminds me of my computer tec who does nothing but woodworking in his basement.
The reason I was montoring your site is biblical and how things are in order and lodgical, Gods word does not alter nor does His Physics.
Must admire you tenacity to stick to your guns!!
I monitor two other sites in this regard and invite you to monitor them if it may please you, there are a number of people who submit to them daily and they are of many different points of veiw, mostly Christ centered, we too watch and learn and observe and sometimes comment.
These are the sites:
five doves http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/aug2009/aug.htm
RITA (rapture in the air)
http://pub48.bravenet.com/forum/static/show.php?usernum=4086901292&frmid=13&msgid=0
Jerry
08/31/2009 (1:08 am)
Hello Britton:I have been watching you site this summer and am impressed with the lodgic and restrain you've shown through this process.
My background is electrical and instrumentation, in the oilfields of Western Canada, and I appreciate the disipline you have applied.
I explained to a few of my fellow workers about you programming background and taking up geo tectonics, and astrophysics, reminds me of my computer tec who does nothing but woodworking in his basement.
The reason I was montoring your site is biblical and how things are in order and lodgical, Gods word does not alter nor does His Physics.
Must admire you tenacity to stick to your guns!!
I monitor two other sites in this regard and invite you to monitor them if it may please you, there are a number of people who submit to them daily and they are of many different points of veiw, mostly Christ centered, we too watch and learn and observe and sometimes comment.
These are the sites:
five doves http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/aug2009/aug.htm
RITA (rapture in the air)
http://pub48.bravenet.com/forum/static/show.php?usernum=4086901292&frmid=13&msgid=0
Jerry
#216
08/31/2009 (12:30 pm)
http://www.e-pisco.jp/ -> lol, they decreased the size of the warning logo to half. Seems they are not sure anymore about a quake in sept.
#217
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8233344.stm
check it out Mr laRoche please analyse I am doing my part
I am pretty interested in your theory
09/02/2009 (8:41 am)
Now in Indonesia 7.0 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8233344.stm
check it out Mr laRoche please analyse I am doing my part
I am pretty interested in your theory
#218
@Sven, they backed down too soon, we just had a 7.0 in Jarkata. If you make a prediction you have to stick with it. Who knows what will happen in Japan. According to my theory its smooth sailing for Japan until around December 31st 2009.
@Arun, The only thing going on is a lunar Syzygy with the full moon on 2009 Sep 4. This cannot explain the M7 quake in Jarakata. If this could explain the Jakarta quake, we would have M7 quakes with every full moon and we do not. The real question is, is this a left over effect from the triple eclipse in July / August? Again, I can't see how its related. I also don't think the lunar / solar tides are the cause behind every earthquake. I'm convinced tidal forces are the cause (or trigger) for many earthquakes, but not this one.
09/02/2009 (11:48 am)
@Jerry, thanks! In my opinion tenacity is worth every ounce intelligence is at solving a problem. The fact that Taiwan has published a paper on the effect lunar / solar tides have on earthquakes, lends great scientific credence to this theory. Its just a matter of time before our own scientists and the USGS starts listening to Jim Berkland's theory too. @Sven, they backed down too soon, we just had a 7.0 in Jarkata. If you make a prediction you have to stick with it. Who knows what will happen in Japan. According to my theory its smooth sailing for Japan until around December 31st 2009.
@Arun, The only thing going on is a lunar Syzygy with the full moon on 2009 Sep 4. This cannot explain the M7 quake in Jarakata. If this could explain the Jakarta quake, we would have M7 quakes with every full moon and we do not. The real question is, is this a left over effect from the triple eclipse in July / August? Again, I can't see how its related. I also don't think the lunar / solar tides are the cause behind every earthquake. I'm convinced tidal forces are the cause (or trigger) for many earthquakes, but not this one.
#219
If the (long term) cumulative force theory is correct, and lunar eclipses have more of an effect, because of the pull on opposite ends of the earth, then we would have some M7 quakes in Japan and Taiwan from Sept 4th through September 12th. Now the moon is back on the opposite side of earth (away from the sun) so if this long term theory was correct we would see quakes. I sincerely doubt we will.
The August 20th data showed us that the effects were about the same or less than the solar eclipse, not really greater. So I don't really think the cumulative force theory lasts that long. I don't expect quakes over the next few days.
If I'm wrong on this assumption, then we would see M6 through M7 quakes in Japan and Taiwan from 2009/09/04 - 2009/09/12. I'd bet money we don't see anything greater than a 4.5. The main reason is two fold, the cumulative force graph seems to only hold for a few days, and only for eclipses. The straight line right through the center of the 3 celestial objects during an eclipse seems to have the greatest effect. We simply don't have this straight line through the center with this full moon on 2009/09/04.
If we do have M7 quakes from 2009/09/04 - 2009/09/12 in Japan and Taiwan it means two things.
1. There is a long term lunar tectonic weakening effect from a solar / lunar eclipse.
2. This long term effect makes even a full moon syzygy a real threat.
Again I doubt this. I think we are done until the next lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009.
Still, the December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon. The full moon (and quake) followed two months after the total lunar eclipse on October 28th 2004. It was a double eclipse too, the lunar eclipse followed 14 days later on the heels of the October 14th Partial solar eclipse.
The September 4th 2009 full moon also follows two months after the July 7th Lunar eclipse. It follows 6 weeks after the July 22nd total solar eclipse, and one month after the last lunar eclipse on August 6th 2009. But, the difference is that the December 26th 2004 full moon occurred while the earth was at perihelion (closest in orbit to the sun).
I'm not making a prediction for the next few days. I do not wish to lower my 87% accuracy rating in predicting earthquakes. I'm interested to see what happens over the next few days, but I put my money on Dec 31st 2009. I've only really been doing this a few months, so its a learning process. If we have big M7 quakes, then I'll refine the theory yet again. This would explain large quakes two months after an eclipse.
The USGS has added the tectonic plates and fault lines in their quake maps. Notice how 90% of the quakes go right along these lines.
Anyone can use this theory and data to make a prediction. What do you think? Is Japan and Taiwan in danger over the next 10 days?
Nasa Solar Eclipses
Nasa Lunar Eclipses
Lunar Apogee and Perigee Calculator
09/02/2009 (10:47 pm)
@Arun, I was free from this mental thing with earthquakes for awhile. I was sure I'd be able to focus on normal day to day life until Dec 31st 2009. Now you've got me thinking again.If the (long term) cumulative force theory is correct, and lunar eclipses have more of an effect, because of the pull on opposite ends of the earth, then we would have some M7 quakes in Japan and Taiwan from Sept 4th through September 12th. Now the moon is back on the opposite side of earth (away from the sun) so if this long term theory was correct we would see quakes. I sincerely doubt we will.
The August 20th data showed us that the effects were about the same or less than the solar eclipse, not really greater. So I don't really think the cumulative force theory lasts that long. I don't expect quakes over the next few days.
If I'm wrong on this assumption, then we would see M6 through M7 quakes in Japan and Taiwan from 2009/09/04 - 2009/09/12. I'd bet money we don't see anything greater than a 4.5. The main reason is two fold, the cumulative force graph seems to only hold for a few days, and only for eclipses. The straight line right through the center of the 3 celestial objects during an eclipse seems to have the greatest effect. We simply don't have this straight line through the center with this full moon on 2009/09/04.
If we do have M7 quakes from 2009/09/04 - 2009/09/12 in Japan and Taiwan it means two things.
1. There is a long term lunar tectonic weakening effect from a solar / lunar eclipse.
2. This long term effect makes even a full moon syzygy a real threat.
Again I doubt this. I think we are done until the next lunar eclipse on Dec 31st 2009.
Still, the December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon. The full moon (and quake) followed two months after the total lunar eclipse on October 28th 2004. It was a double eclipse too, the lunar eclipse followed 14 days later on the heels of the October 14th Partial solar eclipse.
The September 4th 2009 full moon also follows two months after the July 7th Lunar eclipse. It follows 6 weeks after the July 22nd total solar eclipse, and one month after the last lunar eclipse on August 6th 2009. But, the difference is that the December 26th 2004 full moon occurred while the earth was at perihelion (closest in orbit to the sun).
I'm not making a prediction for the next few days. I do not wish to lower my 87% accuracy rating in predicting earthquakes. I'm interested to see what happens over the next few days, but I put my money on Dec 31st 2009. I've only really been doing this a few months, so its a learning process. If we have big M7 quakes, then I'll refine the theory yet again. This would explain large quakes two months after an eclipse.
The USGS has added the tectonic plates and fault lines in their quake maps. Notice how 90% of the quakes go right along these lines.
Anyone can use this theory and data to make a prediction. What do you think? Is Japan and Taiwan in danger over the next 10 days?
Nasa Solar Eclipses
Nasa Lunar Eclipses
Lunar Apogee and Perigee Calculator
#220
Magnitude 6.2 us2009lcaq
Date-Time Thursday, September 03, 2009 at 13:26:18 UTC
Location 31.128°N, 130.051°E
Depth 161.5 km (100.4 miles)
Region KYUSHU, JAPAN
I'm now predicting earthquakes of M6 to M7 September 4th 2009 through September 12th 2009 in Japan and Taiwan. The long term cumulative force theory does seem to have its first real evidence. I was wrong about a solar eclipse having more of an effect. It seems lunar eclipses are greater. The Syzygy where the moon and sun pull in opposite directions seem to have a greater effect.
I cannot ignore the evidence. Its right in front of my eyes. This last 6.2 quake was right before the full moon syzygy. Tonight through Sept 12th (next 8 days) we will see more M6 to M7 earthquakes in Japan and Taiwan. I can't count the 6.2 as my prediction, because I was wrong about it not happening. In fact I have to count it against my prediction ratio my batting average is now 14/17 or 82%. To validate the theory, if I predict no earthquakes (above a M4.5), I have to have no earthquakes above M4.5.
In fact, I can tell you nearly the exact number of quakes and their magnitude. Over the next 8 days we will have at least 1 Magnitude 7 or greater quake, and at least 3 Magnitude 6 or greater. How do I know? Simple. I'm looking at the data from the last full moon syzygy (lunar eclipse) and the quakes it produced from August 9th through August 18th.
If this theory is correct, I can do better than that. Using the "long term lunar tectonic weakening theory" I can tell you the quakes will really start in full force 3 days after the full moon syzygy on Sept 7th 2009. Its the same pattern we saw on August 6th with the Syzygy and the first big quake on August 9th. We already had a 6.2, so according to theory we can expect bigger ones sooner, and the real stuff to begin on September 7th.
I just predicted a minimum of 4 M6+ earthquakes over the next 9 days. If I'm right then the theory is correct beyond reasonable doubt. The odds of predicting the correct time, location and magnitude of an earthquake is thought to be impossible. We will see.
Whats this mean for the rest of the world in this region? Take a look at the USGS online data for August 9th - August 17th 2009, expect more of the same. Currently that data is listed here.
09/03/2009 (5:11 pm)
Okay, so I may be wrong again. We got a 6.2 in Japan, right after I posted the message above. One must bow to the truth. I cannot deny we have a quake and a reasonable explanation for it.Magnitude 6.2 us2009lcaq
Date-Time Thursday, September 03, 2009 at 13:26:18 UTC
Location 31.128°N, 130.051°E
Depth 161.5 km (100.4 miles)
Region KYUSHU, JAPAN
I'm now predicting earthquakes of M6 to M7 September 4th 2009 through September 12th 2009 in Japan and Taiwan. The long term cumulative force theory does seem to have its first real evidence. I was wrong about a solar eclipse having more of an effect. It seems lunar eclipses are greater. The Syzygy where the moon and sun pull in opposite directions seem to have a greater effect.
I cannot ignore the evidence. Its right in front of my eyes. This last 6.2 quake was right before the full moon syzygy. Tonight through Sept 12th (next 8 days) we will see more M6 to M7 earthquakes in Japan and Taiwan. I can't count the 6.2 as my prediction, because I was wrong about it not happening. In fact I have to count it against my prediction ratio my batting average is now 14/17 or 82%. To validate the theory, if I predict no earthquakes (above a M4.5), I have to have no earthquakes above M4.5.
In fact, I can tell you nearly the exact number of quakes and their magnitude. Over the next 8 days we will have at least 1 Magnitude 7 or greater quake, and at least 3 Magnitude 6 or greater. How do I know? Simple. I'm looking at the data from the last full moon syzygy (lunar eclipse) and the quakes it produced from August 9th through August 18th.
UTC DATE-TIME LAT LON ID Mag Region -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009/08/09 10:55:55 33.12N, 138.02E us2009kcaz 7.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/10 20:07:07 34.77N, 138.27E us2009kdb4 6.1 HONSHU, JAPAN 2009/08/13 22:48:51 32.81N, 140.38E us2009kfcp 6.6 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2009/08/17 00:05:47 23.50N, 123.59E us2009kjcq 6.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan) 2009/08/17 10:10:55 23.39N, 123.54E us2009kkay 6.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN (Taiwan)
If this theory is correct, I can do better than that. Using the "long term lunar tectonic weakening theory" I can tell you the quakes will really start in full force 3 days after the full moon syzygy on Sept 7th 2009. Its the same pattern we saw on August 6th with the Syzygy and the first big quake on August 9th. We already had a 6.2, so according to theory we can expect bigger ones sooner, and the real stuff to begin on September 7th.
I just predicted a minimum of 4 M6+ earthquakes over the next 9 days. If I'm right then the theory is correct beyond reasonable doubt. The odds of predicting the correct time, location and magnitude of an earthquake is thought to be impossible. We will see.
Whats this mean for the rest of the world in this region? Take a look at the USGS online data for August 9th - August 17th 2009, expect more of the same. Currently that data is listed here.
sven
Hm.. I wonder if any disaster has ever occourred as predicted .. ?
In SF they wait for a major quake, in LA they do, then in Tokyo and also in the Tokai region. Other awaited disasters are e.g. the Yellowstone supervolcano.