Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 585 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
Actual
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
View Stats
I see a few potential dates for a big quake in Japan in the Tokai region in the near future. I'm in the process of adding in another independent variable. I'm trying to calculate the force build up along the tectonic plates using the time between large earthquakes as a measuring stick. Using my database and the 150 year Tokai quake cycle, I took a look at the next 2 most likely dates for the Tokai quake in Japan, based off of the lunar saros cycle 140. I made the following prediction on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. I have found an equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series. Although we do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan this May, I believe its the lunar eclipse saros series that will do the damage.
Below are the results of my database query. I looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. I found the following earthquakes, and calculated my prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the eclipse.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
PREDICTED SAROS ORIGIN MAG LAT LONG REGION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012-04-27 140 1944-12-07 8.1 34 137.1 JAPAN: OFF SOUTHEAST COAST KII PENINSULA 2012-06-03 140 1945-01-12 7.1 34.7 137.2 JAPAN: HONSHU: S 2012-07-08 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN 2017-04-01 140 1854-12-24 8.3 33.20 135.60 JAPAN
I think the build up of force between the plates and the lunar saros is all that is needed to correctly calculate when and where a quake will hit in regions like Japan and Taiwan.
On December 24th in 1854 Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros / tokai quake cycleof about 150 years... it looks like the Tokai quake is due. Within 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, I think its possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year. On July 1 at 18:02 the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. Combine that with the full moon Syzygy on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces can trigger an earthquake.
We saw a similar quake in 1944 shortly before an eclipse with the same lunar saros 140.
I think the conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. I see 3 possible dates for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation I believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? I'd say based on my track record it is about a 20% chance. I'd also say its an 80% chance of a 5.0 or greater on or about that time in the region. If it does not strike then, we get a second chance in 2017. I'm not alone in the observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean. Nor do I think its mere speculation. I do believe I have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 I've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. I was correct, and refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2010
PREDICTED ORIGIN SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-08 1916-04-21 118 7.8 33 141 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
Actual
DATE SAROS MAG LAT LONG REGION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011-03-11 118 9.0 38.30 142.37 JAPAN: OFF EAST COAST HONSHU
The earthquake prediction was based off of the lunar saros cycle which produced a similar quake in Japan in 1916.
P. 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
P. 21 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Explained
----------------------------- Original Prediction Below ------------------------------------------------
Eclipse Earthquake Theory
What is the relationship between an earthquake and an eclipse? One normally thinks of a solar eclipse as merely the moon blocking the light of the sun. What one misses with this concept, is that these are two celestial bodies that have a large gravitation pull on the earth. During an eclipse these two bodies combine gravitational forces in exactly one straight line. This means that the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the earth are combined during the eclipse.
The eclipse quake theory is as follows; When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling together they create larger than normal tidal forces. The solar tide is about one third the size of the lunar tide. When these tidal forces work together they provide a larger than normal downward push on a subducted tectonic plate. If the gravitation distortion and tidal forces pass over the joint between two tectonic plates that has not had series of recent earthquakes, the extra gravitational pull, and tidal force push is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon's orbit, this magma tide as well as the ocean tide is often actually directly in front of the moon's path. Matching eclipse data from NASA to earthquake data from the USGS demonstrates a great deal of correlative data between eclipses and an earthquakes.
Scientific Papers Backing the Theory
This study from Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875, P.R. China Supports the theory. www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/
Quote:
This paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes(Magnitude 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and thevariance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.
The lunar earthquake theory was first proposed by Jim Berkland, a retired USGS Geologist. Watch him on you tube here.
AAAS press release: Tides and Earthquakes
Quote:
"Tidal forces may have contributed to triggering the devastating magnitude 9.0 Sumatra earthquake of 2004 and other large earthquakes in the region. Gravitational pull from the Sun and the Moon not only is responsible for ocean tides but also creates Earth tides, slight motions of the solid Earth (bulges and dips in the earth's crust and upper mantle) that can lead to stress buildup (or stress relief) along faults.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
Quote:
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581
The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.
Page 19 - Supporting evidence from recent scientific studies
The posts below from 2009 catalog my thoughts as the theory develops. Links between the pages for navigation are provided at the bottom right.
#182
What the graph below shows is the cumulative effects of the gravitational events. The red line shows the cumulative effects of all the pulling and pushing of larger than normal gravitational and tidal forces. The last event the "coup de grace" occurs on August 19th with the next lunar perigee (when the moon is closest to earth). The moon is also very close to the sun in its location in the sky, although there is not a Syzygy, they are very close together at the lunar perigee. The tides will be larger than normal, and will follow fairly closely the path of the july 22nd eclipse. This next perigee will continue the tectonic weakening laid down by the total solar eclipse.
The earthquakes I've correctly predicted with my cumulative force theory are posted above. Notice how the theory shows how the force builds after the lunar events (1-4). This is what I noticed on July 28th, and why I posted my force graph. It turned out to be an accurate prediction of the August 9th -12th quakes. All that remains is the 4th event on August 19th. If my model is correct, then the peak of the force will be on August 22nd 2009.
I predict M6 and M7 quakes August 17th through August 25th, with a strong possibility of an M8 on August 22nd Note: the force model does show an uptick equal to August 9th again on August 16th, we may have quakes then too.
View Stats
08/14/2009 (5:38 pm)
Well the page rolled, so its time to summarize again. To summarize we had 3 events, and the quakes got bigger with each event. We had a lunar eclipse on July 7th, We had a total solar eclipse only July 22nd, and we had another lunar eclipse on August 6th.What the graph below shows is the cumulative effects of the gravitational events. The red line shows the cumulative effects of all the pulling and pushing of larger than normal gravitational and tidal forces. The last event the "coup de grace" occurs on August 19th with the next lunar perigee (when the moon is closest to earth). The moon is also very close to the sun in its location in the sky, although there is not a Syzygy, they are very close together at the lunar perigee. The tides will be larger than normal, and will follow fairly closely the path of the july 22nd eclipse. This next perigee will continue the tectonic weakening laid down by the total solar eclipse.
The earthquakes I've correctly predicted with my cumulative force theory are posted above. Notice how the theory shows how the force builds after the lunar events (1-4). This is what I noticed on July 28th, and why I posted my force graph. It turned out to be an accurate prediction of the August 9th -12th quakes. All that remains is the 4th event on August 19th. If my model is correct, then the peak of the force will be on August 22nd 2009.
I predict M6 and M7 quakes August 17th through August 25th, with a strong possibility of an M8 on August 22nd Note: the force model does show an uptick equal to August 9th again on August 16th, we may have quakes then too.
#183
The 6.9 Quake in October 23 2004 could have been predicted with the exact same method I am using today. Pictures always help us understand the magnitude
If I knew then what I know now, I would have used the same method and would have predicted this quake back in 2004. Anyone could have predicted this quake with the cumulative force graph. Dozens of lives could have been saved. 100,000 people could have prepared for a great disruption in their lives.
October 2004 Eclipse and Earthquake
Eclipse October 14th 2007 - Earthquake October 23rd 2007
October 23, 2004 6.9 Mw 2004 Chūetsu earthquake 中越地震 Chūetsu Jishin Ojiya, Niigata 4040 occurred at 5:56 p.m.(local time) on Saturday, October 23, 2004. The initial earthquake caused noticeable shaking across almost half of Honshū, including parts of the Tohoku, Hokuriku, Chūbu, and Kantō regions.
We had the following significant events.
The quake occurred as the cumulative force was building on the 23rd just before the next Syzygy. I know what you are thinking, why not after the Syzygy on October 28th? Shouldn't the cumulative force model increase over time? Shouldn't we have a quake a few days later? Well, yeah it should and, yes we did. But, they were M6 quakes.
08/15/2009 (10:02 am)
Time for a flash back -- October 2004The 6.9 Quake in October 23 2004 could have been predicted with the exact same method I am using today. Pictures always help us understand the magnitude
Quote:Japan suffered its worst earthquake in a decade in October 2004, when a magnitude 6.9 quake rattled Niigata Prefecture, killing dozens and displacing 100,000 people. Scientists often can say where such extreme shaking is likely to hit—but still can't tell when
If I knew then what I know now, I would have used the same method and would have predicted this quake back in 2004. Anyone could have predicted this quake with the cumulative force graph. Dozens of lives could have been saved. 100,000 people could have prepared for a great disruption in their lives.
October 2004 Eclipse and Earthquake
Eclipse October 14th 2007 - Earthquake October 23rd 2007
October 23, 2004 6.9 Mw 2004 Chūetsu earthquake 中越地震 Chūetsu Jishin Ojiya, Niigata 4040 occurred at 5:56 p.m.(local time) on Saturday, October 23, 2004. The initial earthquake caused noticeable shaking across almost half of Honshū, including parts of the Tohoku, Hokuriku, Chūbu, and Kantō regions.
We had the following significant events.
2004 October 14th Solar eclipse 2004 October 18th Lunar Perigee: 367757 km N+3d21h 2004 October 28th Lunar Eclipse.
The quake occurred as the cumulative force was building on the 23rd just before the next Syzygy. I know what you are thinking, why not after the Syzygy on October 28th? Shouldn't the cumulative force model increase over time? Shouldn't we have a quake a few days later? Well, yeah it should and, yes we did. But, they were M6 quakes.
#184
This news article captures what I've been thinking for months. We may be seeing the precursor to the Dreaded M8 Tokai quake. I think its due, and I think the fact that we have not had a single M6 quake in Japan this year, means we still have a significant force build up outside of the Tokai quake. I really expect to see big quakes over the next 10 days in Japan and in Taiwan.
Fisherman Masakatsu Sakabe inspects the damage of a road following a 6.5-magnitude earthquake at a Makinohara port, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan Photo: AP. I hope he didn't lose his car keys.
I'd say the probability of 87 percent they estimate is correct. But the time frame is about 10 days, not 30 years. I'm telling you, there is something to this theory. I predicted a tsunami near Japan, and got not one but two. "a 60 cm tsunami to hit local beaches and damaged road and rail links." I still expect a bigger tsunami, the likes of which will cause real damage and not go unnoticed.
And yes, the cumulative force theory accurately predicted all 3 of these quakes including this last one. It also accurately explains why we are not having any quakes yesterday and today.
08/15/2009 (11:52 am)
Flash Forward August 2009This news article captures what I've been thinking for months. We may be seeing the precursor to the Dreaded M8 Tokai quake. I think its due, and I think the fact that we have not had a single M6 quake in Japan this year, means we still have a significant force build up outside of the Tokai quake. I really expect to see big quakes over the next 10 days in Japan and in Taiwan.
Quote:
Eastern Japan has been hit by a third strong earthquake in less than a week, prompting speculation that the recent underground activity may be the precursor to a massive - and overdue - tremor in the Tokai region.
Fisherman Masakatsu Sakabe inspects the damage of a road following a 6.5-magnitude earthquake at a Makinohara port, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan Photo: AP. I hope he didn't lose his car keys.
Quote:
The earthquake, also measuring 6.5, was the largest in Shizuoka Prefecture since 1944 and forced the emergency shut-down of two nuclear reactors, caused a 60 cm tsunami to hit local beaches and damaged road and rail links.
But officials of the Japan Meteorological Agency said the tremors are not indicators of the quake that the region has been bracing itself for over the last 20 years.
Major movements in the crust of the Earth have occurred in the Tokai region, close to the major city of Nagoya, on average every 110 years. The last one with a magnitude of 8 was 155 years ago.
Researchers now put the likelihood of a serious earthquake - one that could cause around 6,000 deaths, 20,000 serious injuries and damage to 1 million buildings - within the next 30 years as high as 87 per cent.
I'd say the probability of 87 percent they estimate is correct. But the time frame is about 10 days, not 30 years. I'm telling you, there is something to this theory. I predicted a tsunami near Japan, and got not one but two. "a 60 cm tsunami to hit local beaches and damaged road and rail links." I still expect a bigger tsunami, the likes of which will cause real damage and not go unnoticed.
And yes, the cumulative force theory accurately predicted all 3 of these quakes including this last one. It also accurately explains why we are not having any quakes yesterday and today.
#185
08/15/2009 (5:52 pm)
Hm.. after the ION readings and the moon/force caluclation I also think another quake might coming. But if it is the Tokai quake, it would be the first M8 triggered by a solar eclipse, wouldn't it ? Have other previous M8 quakes been triggered by a solar eclipse ?
#186
Solar Eclipse Data is here
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html
Lunar Eclipse data is here
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/lunar.html
Tokai Quake M8 1854 - December 23rd, 9 AM
Solar: Nov 20th 1854 Hybrid eclipse in south Africa. If you squint you could imagine japan at the very edge of the globe.
Lunar: 1854 - Nov 04 1854 Over Africa, Japan visible at corner of globe.
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/LE1801-1900.html
Lunar Perigee:
Nov 22 23:21 364447 km N+2d13h
Dec 9 0:26 405597 km F+4d10h
Dec 21 3:11 359338 km
www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html
So we have the following on the force graph:
--------------------------------------------------------
Nov 4th Lunar Eclipse
Nov 20th Solar eclipse
Dec 9th Perigee
Dec 21st Perigee
Dec 23rd Tokai Quake
So we did have lunar perigee two days before the Tokai quake in 1854. A possible build up of force starting on November 4th 1854. Lets see what the moon looked like at perigee on Dec 21st 1854 from Japan. I fired up stellarium and I could see something interesting close to the lunar perigee on Dec 19th 1854. Venus, the sun and moon were all very close together on the south horizon 2 days before perigee and 4 days before the tokai quake. Oddly enough Venus the moon and the Sun were in pretty much the same position (very close) for all the previous Tokai quakes. It will be pretty close to the same for August 19th 2009. As odd a coincidence as it is I don't think its related. Venus has about 1,000 times less the pull of the moon.
But, I could not see the November 20th Solar eclipse from Japan. So overall I don't think that the solar eclipse or the rest of the lunar events could have caused the 1854 Tokai quake. I'll work my way back through the rest and see if anything matches...
I did not find a correlation for the other tokai quakes either.
1498
1605 - Feb 3rd
1707 - October 28th
The next time we see almost exactly what we saw in 1854 is the Annular eclipse in Jan 14th/15th 2010. Venus is right by the sun during the eclipse. But we don't have lunar eclipses or perigee at this time.
I still think the best time for anything that could trigger the quake is August 17th through the 25th.
08/15/2009 (9:04 pm)
@Sven, I don't know. Originally I looked at the Tokai quakes in the past, but did not find a correlation. Now that I have the cumulative force theory I can look to see if we had a solar and lunar eclipse, with moon perigee associated with these earthquakes. I have not looked at any other M8 quakes.Solar Eclipse Data is here
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html
Lunar Eclipse data is here
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/lunar.html
Tokai Quake M8 1854 - December 23rd, 9 AM
Solar: Nov 20th 1854 Hybrid eclipse in south Africa. If you squint you could imagine japan at the very edge of the globe.
Lunar: 1854 - Nov 04 1854 Over Africa, Japan visible at corner of globe.
eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/LE1801-1900.html
Lunar Perigee:
Nov 22 23:21 364447 km N+2d13h
Dec 9 0:26 405597 km F+4d10h
Dec 21 3:11 359338 km
www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html
So we have the following on the force graph:
--------------------------------------------------------
Nov 4th Lunar Eclipse
Nov 20th Solar eclipse
Dec 9th Perigee
Dec 21st Perigee
Dec 23rd Tokai Quake
So we did have lunar perigee two days before the Tokai quake in 1854. A possible build up of force starting on November 4th 1854. Lets see what the moon looked like at perigee on Dec 21st 1854 from Japan. I fired up stellarium and I could see something interesting close to the lunar perigee on Dec 19th 1854. Venus, the sun and moon were all very close together on the south horizon 2 days before perigee and 4 days before the tokai quake. Oddly enough Venus the moon and the Sun were in pretty much the same position (very close) for all the previous Tokai quakes. It will be pretty close to the same for August 19th 2009. As odd a coincidence as it is I don't think its related. Venus has about 1,000 times less the pull of the moon.
But, I could not see the November 20th Solar eclipse from Japan. So overall I don't think that the solar eclipse or the rest of the lunar events could have caused the 1854 Tokai quake. I'll work my way back through the rest and see if anything matches...
I did not find a correlation for the other tokai quakes either.
1498
1605 - Feb 3rd
1707 - October 28th
The next time we see almost exactly what we saw in 1854 is the Annular eclipse in Jan 14th/15th 2010. Venus is right by the sun during the eclipse. But we don't have lunar eclipses or perigee at this time.
I still think the best time for anything that could trigger the quake is August 17th through the 25th.
#187
Also I still wonder, if it is possible to calculate the energy in a certain area that might lead to a quake. Like if there are no quakes for a long time, there is a higher chance for a larger quake. Energy is accumulated due to the plate movement and released in quakes like in this video:www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Xebwzb3dDE
The threshold when the energy is released can be taken from previous quakes.
About the Niigata quakes, there are rumors that they have been triggered by two companies that have been drilling deep holes in this region. One company was working on geothermal energy and the other one for compressing polluted air into the ground. I think there has been even a lawsuit. Same thing happened in Germany - there also research for geothermal energy triggered an M4 quake in a region where there are usually no quakes.
In general it would be best of course, if quakes would be triggered at a certain time intentionally. The Tokai region e.g. could be evacuated, the 5 nuclear powerplants stopped, then the quake is triggered and after everybody comes back. I dont know why nobody wants to do this.
08/16/2009 (12:16 am)
It would also be interesting to know if there have been other relevant quakes shortly before previous tokai quake like the M6.5 now in this region. Also I still wonder, if it is possible to calculate the energy in a certain area that might lead to a quake. Like if there are no quakes for a long time, there is a higher chance for a larger quake. Energy is accumulated due to the plate movement and released in quakes like in this video:www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Xebwzb3dDE
The threshold when the energy is released can be taken from previous quakes.
About the Niigata quakes, there are rumors that they have been triggered by two companies that have been drilling deep holes in this region. One company was working on geothermal energy and the other one for compressing polluted air into the ground. I think there has been even a lawsuit. Same thing happened in Germany - there also research for geothermal energy triggered an M4 quake in a region where there are usually no quakes.
In general it would be best of course, if quakes would be triggered at a certain time intentionally. The Tokai region e.g. could be evacuated, the 5 nuclear powerplants stopped, then the quake is triggered and after everybody comes back. I dont know why nobody wants to do this.
#188
Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time
* Sunday, August 16, 2009 at 07:38:26 UTC
* Sunday, August 16, 2009 at 02:38:26 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 1.409°S, 99.494°E
Depth 50.8 km (31.6 miles)
Region KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
Where we had smaller quakes a week or two ago we will now start having bigger quakes. Just as the theory predicted, we now have M7 quakes starting again. It explained the down time as well as the new start of the quakes. My cell phone just woke me up with the latest SMS from the USGS with the M7 us2009kjak quake posted above.
Its just like clock work, only the moon and sun are the hands of the clocks. Their location can predict earthquakes. All we need to do is learn how to read celestial time.
08/16/2009 (1:41 am)
Here we go, the force graph shows we are now back where we were on August 9th. Like I said we can start Seeing M6 and M7 quakes as early as August 16th.Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time
* Sunday, August 16, 2009 at 07:38:26 UTC
* Sunday, August 16, 2009 at 02:38:26 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 1.409°S, 99.494°E
Depth 50.8 km (31.6 miles)
Region KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
Where we had smaller quakes a week or two ago we will now start having bigger quakes. Just as the theory predicted, we now have M7 quakes starting again. It explained the down time as well as the new start of the quakes. My cell phone just woke me up with the latest SMS from the USGS with the M7 us2009kjak quake posted above.
Its just like clock work, only the moon and sun are the hands of the clocks. Their location can predict earthquakes. All we need to do is learn how to read celestial time.
#189
Right you are. Drilling does have an impact, and we can trigger a quake with a nuclear bomb or by intentionally causing the quake. But why would we need to do this if we can accurately predict them? Also, we might end up doing more damage to the plate in the long run if we intentionally trigger the quakes. After the 10th time we do that we might go ... oops the whole Japanese island fell off the plate.
The other thing is, I don't think the drilling caused these quakes, because we had a 7.6 near Indonesia at the same time (August 9th - August 13th) I don't see how drilling in Japan could be related to the Indonesian quake. I do see how lunar events (and therefore tidal forces) in the same region could cause the quake.
08/16/2009 (1:46 am)
@Sven,Right you are. Drilling does have an impact, and we can trigger a quake with a nuclear bomb or by intentionally causing the quake. But why would we need to do this if we can accurately predict them? Also, we might end up doing more damage to the plate in the long run if we intentionally trigger the quakes. After the 10th time we do that we might go ... oops the whole Japanese island fell off the plate.
The other thing is, I don't think the drilling caused these quakes, because we had a 7.6 near Indonesia at the same time (August 9th - August 13th) I don't see how drilling in Japan could be related to the Indonesian quake. I do see how lunar events (and therefore tidal forces) in the same region could cause the quake.
#190
08/16/2009 (5:34 am)
I wonder if it might be possible to earn money by betting on earthquakes to happen :-) At www.longbets.org or centrebet.com bets can be made - not sure if they accept bets on natural disasters though..
#191
img300.imageshack.us/i/67602082117.jpg/
Here the cloud to compare from last years EQ in sichuan
img263.imageshack.us/i/bizarreearthquakeclouds.jpg/
And another cloud near Tokyo on the day of the M7.1 EQ on Aug.9
img43.imageshack.us/i/671938108181.jpg/
08/16/2009 (11:10 am)
Oh and here a cloud which i found in a japanese earthquake forum - the photo just has been taken today near the tokai region: img300.imageshack.us/i/67602082117.jpg/
Here the cloud to compare from last years EQ in sichuan
img263.imageshack.us/i/bizarreearthquakeclouds.jpg/
And another cloud near Tokyo on the day of the M7.1 EQ on Aug.9
img43.imageshack.us/i/671938108181.jpg/
#192
I highlighted the outlines of the clouds in photoshop to uncover the hidden message. Unfortunately for the Japanese, it was written in English ... to me it seems to say "RUN"
08/16/2009 (12:10 pm)
@Sven, Like the other theories I don't know enough about the electrical output that forms these clouds to know if it indicates a quake or not. But I think its interesting. I'm assuming these photos were colorized to highlight the clouds, if not then the color of these clouds is quite bizarre.I highlighted the outlines of the clouds in photoshop to uncover the hidden message. Unfortunately for the Japanese, it was written in English ... to me it seems to say "RUN"
#193
Ah, and here an explanation:
translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fhomepage3.nifty.com%2Fueyama%2Fsky...
08/16/2009 (12:49 pm)
The clouds are not colored artificially - I took a similar photo myself already. img9.imageshack.us/i/colorclouds.jpg/Ah, and here an explanation:
translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fhomepage3.nifty.com%2Fueyama%2Fsky...
#194
08/16/2009 (1:21 pm)
@Sven, where are you?
#196
I Have no idea of what this lady is saying in Japanese, but the clouds look bizarre.
If you are in Yokhama, then what is the current thinking on a quake over the next 8 days? Are people worried? Are they talking about it? You are a bit north east of the dreaded tokai quake but I'm sure you will feel it if we get one. Did you feel any of the other quakes? Aug 9th - Aug 13th?
08/16/2009 (1:33 pm)
@Sven, I'm in Texas. We don't have rainbow colored clouds like that. I've never seen one. I read through the link you posted, translated to english, and I get the impression the author does not seem to think these clouds are related to earthquakes. I'm guessing its the shape of the clouds that they find concerning. I remember from the video you posted earlier, that strong vertical lines in the clouds are a bad sign. I see plenty of those in your picture, they seem do be going at a 90 degree angle at the higher altitude.I Have no idea of what this lady is saying in Japanese, but the clouds look bizarre.
If you are in Yokhama, then what is the current thinking on a quake over the next 8 days? Are people worried? Are they talking about it? You are a bit north east of the dreaded tokai quake but I'm sure you will feel it if we get one. Did you feel any of the other quakes? Aug 9th - Aug 13th?
#197
Actually I worry less about the Tokai quake itself as the 5 nuclear power plants which there are in the epicenter..
Quakes are not that dangerous I think, as the following calculation shows:
If there would be a major quake in Tokyo e.g., 83% of the people would survive without major injuries. Taking the last Kanto quake, 140.000 died and 500.000 were injured. As the population of Tokyo that time was 3.5 Million, this means there is a 4% possibility to die and a 13% possibility to get injured, so its dangerous of cause but the chance to survive without injuries is 83%. Perhaps now its even higher, as the architecture has been improved since then.
I think the people here are not much concerned about an earthquake now. I told the forecast to a japanese friend in the company and he said he doesnt believe in forecasts. Several years ago when the one researcher predicted the Kanto quake in 2003, I also asked my boss about this. He said there have been so many predictions already forecasting a major quake, but all of them have failed, so he doesnt believe anymore in the forecasts.
Once I asked a shopkeeper nearby my home about if he is afraid about earthquakes. He told me he not believes any predictions - so far it always happened different than expected. Like when Mt.Fuji erupted last time, it was not that the lava came out to the top, it broke out on the side. So he also thinks that there might be a major quake one time, but it will be not as predicted.
The only station here predicting a major quake from august to september is the http://www.e-pisco.jp/ prediction. Last year their IONs graph was a pretty good indicator and I went to Germany in the holidays the time I expected the quake to happen. It worked out - I was away while the strongest quake in like 15 years hit near Sendai.
But for the one in Sendai, there was another strong indicator: So far, any time there was a strong quake in the Sichuan region so far, the same year there was one in Japan as well with a few months time gap.
@the cloud: I dont understand everything the lady sais - what I understood is that it is a very unique cloud that the pilot has never seen before in his 35 years. Also I didnt hear the talking about earthquakes.
About the quakes, I felt 2. The first was an M4 near tokyo and the second the one in the Tokai region. I remeber I woke up and as it only lasted a short time, I continued sleeping after.
08/16/2009 (2:05 pm)
Ah, Texas is good - its far enough away from here :-) Actually I worry less about the Tokai quake itself as the 5 nuclear power plants which there are in the epicenter..
Quakes are not that dangerous I think, as the following calculation shows:
If there would be a major quake in Tokyo e.g., 83% of the people would survive without major injuries. Taking the last Kanto quake, 140.000 died and 500.000 were injured. As the population of Tokyo that time was 3.5 Million, this means there is a 4% possibility to die and a 13% possibility to get injured, so its dangerous of cause but the chance to survive without injuries is 83%. Perhaps now its even higher, as the architecture has been improved since then.
I think the people here are not much concerned about an earthquake now. I told the forecast to a japanese friend in the company and he said he doesnt believe in forecasts. Several years ago when the one researcher predicted the Kanto quake in 2003, I also asked my boss about this. He said there have been so many predictions already forecasting a major quake, but all of them have failed, so he doesnt believe anymore in the forecasts.
Once I asked a shopkeeper nearby my home about if he is afraid about earthquakes. He told me he not believes any predictions - so far it always happened different than expected. Like when Mt.Fuji erupted last time, it was not that the lava came out to the top, it broke out on the side. So he also thinks that there might be a major quake one time, but it will be not as predicted.
The only station here predicting a major quake from august to september is the http://www.e-pisco.jp/ prediction. Last year their IONs graph was a pretty good indicator and I went to Germany in the holidays the time I expected the quake to happen. It worked out - I was away while the strongest quake in like 15 years hit near Sendai.
But for the one in Sendai, there was another strong indicator: So far, any time there was a strong quake in the Sichuan region so far, the same year there was one in Japan as well with a few months time gap.
@the cloud: I dont understand everything the lady sais - what I understood is that it is a very unique cloud that the pilot has never seen before in his 35 years. Also I didnt hear the talking about earthquakes.
About the quakes, I felt 2. The first was an M4 near tokyo and the second the one in the Tokai region. I remeber I woke up and as it only lasted a short time, I continued sleeping after.
#198
Thanks for the information. I now think that the Japanese are as ambivalent about quakes as the Californians. Its just part of life. 140,000 people dying in the last Kanto quake; however, concerns me. I also think its a psychological defense mechanism. When you can't do anything about it, why worry?
I do believe that we can and will predict quakes. Its true that there will be many failures before we get a success. So far I'm at 100% accuracy and I don't think I'm that lucky. A friend of mine wrote to Snopes to say I was correct. Snopes wrote back and said Japan gets M6 and M7 quakes every other week, it was just pure chance. I think the vast majority of people don't recognize how rare it is. We had Zero M6 and M7 quakes until August 9th of this year.
I think that we have another effect that I've been holding off from speaking on. The main reason is it complicates things. But notice this you tube video. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEQH0HsNCeQ&feature=related
Notice how the effect goes from one side of the water globe to the other in a delayed effect. I think the same thing happens on earth with the lunar pulls from Syzygy. The epipodial effect I think accurately explains why we get quakes in Japan when we have an eclipse near the south pole. It could explain the tokai quake in 1707 and 1854. But, as its stands I have not been able to finish working it out. By its self, my cumulative force theory cannot explain the last 4 tokai quakes.
The solid earth does deform about 1 meter during an eclipse. Its pulled and stretched. I think a combination of the measure of pressure force that builds up over time and the friction force are only part of the equation. Once we add in the tidal forces, the distortion and fluid dynamics we will have an accurate model. All of this will of course be part of a computer simulation.
08/16/2009 (2:24 pm)
@Sven,Thanks for the information. I now think that the Japanese are as ambivalent about quakes as the Californians. Its just part of life. 140,000 people dying in the last Kanto quake; however, concerns me. I also think its a psychological defense mechanism. When you can't do anything about it, why worry?
I do believe that we can and will predict quakes. Its true that there will be many failures before we get a success. So far I'm at 100% accuracy and I don't think I'm that lucky. A friend of mine wrote to Snopes to say I was correct. Snopes wrote back and said Japan gets M6 and M7 quakes every other week, it was just pure chance. I think the vast majority of people don't recognize how rare it is. We had Zero M6 and M7 quakes until August 9th of this year.
I think that we have another effect that I've been holding off from speaking on. The main reason is it complicates things. But notice this you tube video. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEQH0HsNCeQ&feature=related
Notice how the effect goes from one side of the water globe to the other in a delayed effect. I think the same thing happens on earth with the lunar pulls from Syzygy. The epipodial effect I think accurately explains why we get quakes in Japan when we have an eclipse near the south pole. It could explain the tokai quake in 1707 and 1854. But, as its stands I have not been able to finish working it out. By its self, my cumulative force theory cannot explain the last 4 tokai quakes.
The solid earth does deform about 1 meter during an eclipse. Its pulled and stretched. I think a combination of the measure of pressure force that builds up over time and the friction force are only part of the equation. Once we add in the tidal forces, the distortion and fluid dynamics we will have an accurate model. All of this will of course be part of a computer simulation.
#199
08/16/2009 (2:41 pm)
Hm.. but how about plate movements from underground lava streams ? As the earth is very hot in the center, I believe there are lava streams flowing up near the surface, cooling down and dropping back into the center of the earth.
#200
I picked Japan because its the nation that gets the most earthquakes. Its sits at the junction of 3 tectonic plates that form its very existence. Its the best place to do a test or a study on what causes earthquakes. Its kind of like picking the most sensitive kid in a classroom for an allergy test.
08/16/2009 (2:46 pm)
@Sven, good point, we do have heat convection to tend with too. I'm not sure that heat convection is a factor in the subduction zones though. I'm kind of fixated with those regions. The way I see it heat convection plays a role in creating the movement and pressure in the plates in the first place. Its kind of included already with the pressure equation.I picked Japan because its the nation that gets the most earthquakes. Its sits at the junction of 3 tectonic plates that form its very existence. Its the best place to do a test or a study on what causes earthquakes. Its kind of like picking the most sensitive kid in a classroom for an allergy test.
Torque Owner Britton LaRoche
Great research my friend!
Harold Jeffreys' equation is off by a bit. A billion years ago the current scientist believe we had 6 hour days. It is breaking ever so slightly, our days have increased 4 times in length since then. Our days are getting longer, this is an established fact. So he was right, that it does slow the earth rotation, but wrong about when and how much.